Roster Outlook 1/2 of the way through season

Guru · Post #1 » by **Guru** » Mon Jan 20, 2025 5:48 am

With no trades blowing away the front office, the plan was to give the playoffs a go and see if the team could make a mark there and if they misstepped trade off the pieces necessary to hold on to the pick. At 18-20 that seemed like an ok plan with an unknown direction. At 18-25 the direction is obvious. 18 days away from the trade deadline pieces are sure to be moved.

1. Lavine-He's been fantastic. But he's getting frustrated. I am not sure a trade is possible and I don't think it's the best thing for the team. The best thing for the team to jumpstart a rebuild is to lose a bunch of games this year, get a top 5 pick and still have Lavine around.
2. Vuc-He has been great as well. Defense aside his offense has been great. His 3Pt shooting is down this month but he's still a 20-12 C. He should be moved as soon as possible before he hits a wall or an injury. I expect him on the Lakers or Warriors in less than 3 weeks.
3. Coby White-He's been up and down this year. I was ready to move on from Coby but he's had a good month. 20-5.3a 40%from3....Now it is probably still prudent to move on from him because sooner than later you are going to have to pay him and we probably won't want to do that. He might also get the best return of guys we would be open to moving. He's an impact scorer and that's in demand
4. Ayo-His energy coming off injury is obvious and he needs to move into the starting lineup. He makes everything run more smoothly and is the kind of guy that frustrates other teams on both ends of the ball. We need more guys like that.
5. Buz-I love him. I know he hasn't flashed enough yet but he has everything that I think it takes to be an all star here. We complain about Pwill and Giddey's energy and this is the opposite here. Lets move him into the lineup and deal with the growing pains.
6. Giddey-His play lately has been frustrating but he's still more often than not impactful on offense due to is facilitation and rebounding. His IQ and tenacity on defense is just atrocious. He also has an ugly 3 pointer. I'm still buying. He shouldn't be expensive at all due to his sporadic play, I doubt there will be many suitors. We will match anything within reason. I think the 3 point shot should get fixed, I''m not sure about the defense. If we replace Vuc with a more above the rim-rim runner I think he should be even better. Basically---let him walk or trade him fif there is any salary that we feel uncomfortable about. I still believe in him but there is a limit.
7. Pwill-He has had a terrible month but he's not going anywhere with his contract. He played well enough in December and November to flash rotational forward. If he had any aggression he could be impactful. Still he's only 23 and his story is unwritten.
8. Jalen Smith-He isn't Andre Drummond but I wouldn't kick him out of bed for eating crackers. He's been solid as a backup 5 and provides more athleticism and defense than Vuc. I wouldn't mind losing with him as the starting C for rest of the year and then have him find a home as a backup 4/5 next year on a better team.
9. Ball-I'm not sure I have ever seen a smarter player. His impact is felt so much beyond his box. I'd love to have him back, You can limit his minutes early and start him late. He might pair very well with an inexpensive Giddey.
10. Terry-I am still a huge fan of Terry. I think he ends up a difference making defender who is a net positive offensive player. I think eventually you're fine if he's a starter but more likely he's a rotational wing.
11. Craig-He could be a worst starter on a good team. He's that good. He's not playing I'm assuming only to preserve him for a trade after his opt-in. He is the most likely to be traded.
12. THT-He is a sparkplug on offense, would be great for a playoff team off the bench. Should be traded as well.
13. J Phil-He's flashed as well. Not as consistent as Terry but I wouldn't mind him sticking around as he can still develop.

Finishing up the year like this with a few add ons from trades would be fun and entertaining and probably get us a top 8 pick.
1-Ball-Giddey
2-Ayo-Terry
3-Lavine-Phillips
4-Buz-PWill
5-Smith

sco · Post #2 » by **sco** » Mon Jan 20, 2025 2:35 pm

I'm generally with you.

On Giddey of late, I think he's been playing through an injury and it has impacted his game. I like the timeshare idea with Ball to keep both of their stats down in contract years for both.

Pat should be bumped to the bench. That usually wakes him up, and gives him the opportunity for more touches when he's playing.

I think the key is what, if anything usefule, we can get for Coby, Vuc, etc.

Post #3 » by **dougthonus** » Mon Jan 20, 2025 3:02 pm

Guru wrote:1. Lavine-He's been fantastic. But he's getting frustrated. I am not sure a trade is possible and I don't think it's the best thing for the team. The best thing for the team to jumpstart a rebuild is to lose a bunch of games this year, get a top 5 pick and still have Lavine around.

In some ways I think this is true, in other ways I wonder how long LaVine will stay motivated. I wonder if he came in and was like I'm going to be a model citizen to try to get traded, but if it doesn't happen, if he will be able to keep it up the next two years?

If he could, then I think this is accurate, but I don't think that's a given either.

2. Vuc-He has been great as well. Defense aside his offense has been great. His 3Pt shooting is down this month but he's still a 20-12 C. He should be moved as soon as possible before he hits a wall or an injury. I expect him on the Lakers or Warriors in less than 3 weeks.

I agree, but I don't think there is any trade market for Vuc. Not necessarily due to Vuc or his play, but the complexities of trading due to the rules around the new aprons and the types of teams that would want to add a guy like him and the overall need for a high volume offensive center that doesn't give you anything on defense are all things working against him.

I'm not sure he solves a lot of needs for many teams, and while there are definitely teams that would love to take him, those teams generally don't have the right pieces to make it work. I think the Lakers are the most interesting possibility, but when you look at the contracts, its harder to see what would work:

Rui + Vincent for Vuc + Carter eyeballing it probably works, but it doesn't save us any money. Would the Lakers really throw in assets on top of that? If they didn't, would we still want to do it? If they had 20M in expirings, I think it'd be a no brainer, but Vincent is straight bad salary.

3. Coby White-He's been up and down this year. I was ready to move on from Coby but he's had a good month. 20-5.3a 40%from3....Now it is probably still prudent to move on from him because sooner than later you are going to have to pay him and we probably won't want to do that. He might also get the best return of guys we would be open to moving. He's an impact scorer and that's in demand

I was arguing to move Coby since this summer mainly due to the impending contract situation. His cheap contract has a lot more value to a team trying to win now than it does to us if we aren't going to utilize it in a meaningful way this year or next, and that seems most likely.

4. Ayo-His energy coming off injury is obvious and he needs to move into the starting lineup. He makes everything run more smoothly and is the kind of guy that frustrates other teams on both ends of the ball. We need more guys like that.

I'd consider moving Ayo for the same reasons I'd consider moving Coby, but with both guys the question remains how much can you get and is it worth it? Like if it's second rounders, keep both. If it is 1st rounders, how good are they likely to be?

5. Buz-I love him. I know he hasn't flashed enough yet but he has everything that I think it takes to be an all star here. We complain about Pwill and Giddey's energy and this is the opposite here. Lets move him into the lineup and deal with the growing pains.

I think he's a decent prospect, but for a guy who can't stay on the floor for 20 minutes, I think it's a bit too early to take seriously any all-star potential. He's got a lot of intriguing traits but has a really long way to go in the shooting department in order to have any shot of this.

6. Giddey-His play lately has been frustrating but he's still more often than not impactful on offense due to is facilitation and rebounding. His IQ and tenacity on defense is just atrocious. He also has an ugly 3 pointer. I'm still buying. He shouldn't be expensive at all due to his sporadic play, I doubt there will be many suitors. We will match anything. I think the 3 point shot should get fixed, I''m not sure about the defense. If we replace Giddey with a more above the rim-rim runner I think he should be even better. Basically---let him walk or trade him fif there is any salary that we feel uncomfortable about. I still believe in him but there is a limit.

I think if you play hardball with Giddey in FA that he probably comes back at high end backup PG money (MLEish) and then I think Giddey is fine. He's got a lot of important weaknesses to go with his interesting strengths. If you're paying him 20-25M it's probably a problem, if you're paying him 14M then it probably isn't.

7. Pwill-He has had a terrible month but he's not going anywhere with his contract. He played well enough in December and November to flash rotational forward. If he had any aggression he could be impactful. Still he's only 23 and his story is unwritten.

I think the high upside part of his story is written. I think he could still prove worthy of this deal though. It isn't a crazy leap to get to be worth 18M based on things he's shown in the past. That said, it isn't looking overly hopeful. He doesn't really seem to have passion for the game, and he's let himself go physically. Maybe that was due to the foot injury and he bounces back, but you'd have thought he'd have played himself into better shape this season.

8. Jalen Smith-He isn't Andre Drummond but I wouldn't kick him out of bed for eating crackers. He's been solid as a backup 5 and provides more athleticism and defense than Vuc. I wouldn't mind losing with him as the starting C for rest of the year and then have him find a home as a backup 4/5 next year on a better team.

Think Jalen's been really good overall. I'd say he's been better than Drummond, gives you some good offense and more shot blocking. Both do kind of dumb stuff at times, but I hope with Jalen he gets better at it as he's still really young. He's probably the 2nd best FA signing we've made after Caruso IMO.

9. Ball-I'm not sure I have ever seen a smarter player. His impact is felt so much beyond his box. I'd love to have him back, You can limit his minutes early and start him late. He might pair very well with an inexpensive Giddey.

Will be really interesting to see what his FA market is like. If there is a lot of low balling due to the injury risk, I'd be quite excited to get Ball back. IF someone looks at him and goes 4/80, then I'd let him go, and I think either of those things is distinctly possible. I'd probably be willing to go 4 years MLE on Ball though.

10. Terry-I am still a huge fan of Terry. I think he ends up a difference making defender who is a net positive offensive player. I think eventually your fine if he's a starter but more likely he's a rotational wing.

He's maybe our best defender, but his offense is really rough and no where near "net positive". His shot mechanics have improved a bit this year, maybe he gets there eventually.

11. Craig-He could be a worst starter on a good team. He's that good. He's not playing I'm assuming only to preserve him for a trade after his opt-in. He is the most likely to be traded.
12. THT-He is a sparkplug on offense, would be great for a playoff team off the bench. Should be traded as well.

These guys both strike me as this year's Andre Drummond types. Guys whom are successful vet min players that could be rotation guys on good teams. In the apron era, these guys should fetch at least a 2nd, possibly multiple 2nds due to the combination of low cost and ability to plug a hole.

13. J Phil-He's flashed as well. Not as consistent as Terry but I wouldn't mind him sticking around as he can still develop.

His contract is cheap, he's looked okay in moments. No reason to just dump him, but he's got a long way to go on offense, and his defense isn't as good as Terry's.

MrSparkle · Post #4 » by **MrSparkle** » Mon Jan 20, 2025 3:36 pm

I’m ok with keeping all these cheap zero/negative value prospects (Pat, Terry, Phillips), cause they’re as low as they’ll go (besides out the league). If someone’s got a late FRP or multiple 2nds for Pat, then be my guest. I’m borderline ready for dumping him for a spam sandwich (Huerter, Nurkic, THJ, etc.) but I smell a Wendell/Gafford immediate “wake up call” in another jersey and another AKME face-plant waiting to happen. At this point, who cares though?

Coby and Ayo are tricky. It’s possible Coby’s offensive slump is due to Zach’s return. Strangely, though his usage is up and his defense has slipped a lot. And his IQ looks terrible after showing marked improvement prior 2y. Maybe he does us another favor of crashing his market value, resigning to a bargain and outperforming his deal. I can’t vibe with paying him starter money on the next deal. I have hated his game this year.

Ayo is very tricky. He looks so much better on TV than he does on paper. His on/off rating is abysmal. He brings such a wide jack-of-trades skill-set, but it’s hard to read his actual defensive impact with how undersized and flawed we are. Feel like he might stick around, but seems like a 6th man ceiling. Would someone offer a FRP? Will he get paid more than the MLE?

This team is just in the worst case possible position, for the 3rd year in a row. Play-in/dancing with giving an 11th pick to Spurs, bunch of youth player regressions, and 2 go-to vet scorers who couldn’t consistently lead the Globetrotters to wins over the Generals.

Giddey should be paid MLE+ money. Period. Love his passing, Rebounding and some odd intangibles. Kills you in many ways. Signing him to a 100M contract would be bonkers.

Lonzo is (pathetically) our best all-around player (obviously Zach being the “best overall”). I’m not kidding. I don’t know what you do with this guy. Pay him another 80/4 with annual injury clauses/non-guaranteed money? Someone will easily give him the MLE.

ChettheJet · Post #5 » by **ChettheJet** » Mon Jan 20, 2025 3:54 pm

Well it's time to go or drown one more time. The Bulls have done absolutely nothing the last 3 deadlines. One and two you could excuse because they had DeRozan, Lavine, Vucevic with the hope Lonzo would be returning. Last year you (I) got concerned because the talk was they were holding out on Caruso for 2 picks and I for one didn't see that being realistic. Also didn't move Drummond.

Now here we are. This year I keep asking myself, how secure are AKME in their positions that maybe they are limited in the size of a trade they can make. After trading picks and getting a zero PORT pick, not really scoring on the ones they made, signing the big names in free agency and still not being close to contenders I see the genuine possibility they're OUT at the end of the season. So any deal that they can find or that comes from another team has to be run through Reinsdorf and his advisors

Yes Zach looks like an all star as he has in the past. Nobody is concerned about his getting injured as he has in the past. Look he's been here long enough and hasn't shown he's the answer to getting to the playoffs very year. which is the goal. Cave in and get whatever shorter term contracts and younger guys that are offered.

I think you could live with keeping Vuc but only if they had a tall, defensive minded PF to start next to him. Karnisovas has never looked for that guy. It's looking like it was a bad move to resign Vuc for that much money in the first place. Gotta go with whoever wants him for whatever they offer

Coby is inconsistent, just like 100 other NBA players who are good but not great, some become consistent and all stars most don't. You're not going to luck into somebody better without a crystal ball. Keeping him

Ayo the same, not as good on offense better on defense keeping him too.

Buzelis needs 25 pounds and a year in the weight room, he's not there yet but looks like he could be something.

Giddey might be better if he handled the ball more but I wonder if Zach brings the ball up more than he does. The same inconsistent in his shooting tag, not a great defender, can pass, get to the basket, rebound. I'd take him back but wouldn't pay any more than Coby or Ayo.

I'm just not wiling to give upon Patrick until I see him play half a season at least at the SF. He was considered a good rookie, injured the next year came back to DeRozan, Caruso, Vuc, White and Lavine and was the 5th scoring option but still the biggest and still undersized PF. Billy had hm waiting in the corner until this season and he's now outside the key. Can be the first one back on defense from there but can't get any rebounds out there.

Jalen Smith could play more effective minutes he was either starting or backing up a defensive rim protector. That's what I'd like to see and have Sonogo on the roster as the 3rd.

Make resigning Lonzo Ball job ONE. I can imagine Him, Coby and Ayo being 3 of the first 4 guards and #4 is wide open as to who it is other than Zach.

Craig might as well go fora 2nd, gotta move Carter somehow some way

Phillips I'm hanging on to. I like THT because he doesn't pause to decide what he wants to do, he's seen the situation and he knows what's next and he makes his move.

Terry still doesn't do anything really well. Hey he tried, he's not helpful, other teams don't pay any attention to him, he's gone.

Risk Addict · Post #6 » by **Risk Addict** » Tue Jan 21, 2025 3:51 pm

Terry, Phillips, and Pat are all terrible. I don’t understand why we are giving them minutes. Bench them and give minutes to Matas, Ayo, and Ball. They are going to make Zach and Vuc look better and help their trade value

League Circles · Post #7 » by **League Circles** » Tue Jan 21, 2025 9:24 pm

The players I think have the most potential for us going forward in the context of their contracts are:

Zach
Matas
Smith
Ball

I don't really value anyone else in an important way, but I like Coby a lot. I don't think he's that good mind you lol, I just like him lol.

Dez · Post #8 » by **Dez** » Tue Jan 21, 2025 10:45 pm

League Circles wrote:The players I think have the most potential for us going forward in the context of their contracts are:

Zach
Matas
Smith
Ball

I don't really value anyone else in an important way, but I like Coby a lot. I don't think he's that good mind you lol, I just like him lol.

The only potential Ball has is to get injured, he doesn't get another contract here unless it’s a massive discount.

League Circles · Post #9 » by **League Circles** » Tue Jan 21, 2025 11:07 pm

Dez wrote:
League Circles wrote:The players I think have the most potential for us going forward in the context of their contracts are:

Zach
Matas
Smith
Ball

I don't really value anyone else in an important way, but I like Coby a lot. I don't think he's that good mind you lol, I just like him lol.

The only potential Ball has is to get injured, he doesn't get another contract here unless it’s a massive discount.

I kinda doubt he's gonna get significant offers. I think there's a good chance we can keep him for less than half of what he makes now.

kodo · Post #10 » by **kodo** » Wed Jan 22, 2025 2:07 am

I'd be very surprised if he gets more than $5M.

Even on top of the injury risk, he's a horrific scorer. Career 51% TS even before the surgery, and he's right on track with 51% TS this year. Ben Simmons scores at 57% TS. He's not playable at PG for many teams that rely on the position for scoring.

Not too many other teams would see their PG shooting 2-9, 1-8 from 3, with 4 assists and think he played well like Chicago fans think of Lonzo after that LAC game.

League Circles · Post #11 » by **League Circles** » Wed Jan 22, 2025 2:15 am

kodo wrote:I'd be very surprised if he gets more than $5M.

Even on top of the injury risk, he's a horrific scorer. Career 51% TS even before the surgery, and he's right on track with 51% TS this year. Ben Simmons scores at 57% TS. He's not playable at PG for many teams that rely on the position for scoring.

Not too many other teams would see their PG shooting 2-9, 1-8 from 3, with 4 assists and think he played well like Chicago fans think of Lonzo after that LAC game.

Yeah I do think his poor numbers are gonna help keep the offers down. I can't imagine him getting over the MLE, but I'm not sure I would necessarily want the Bulls to even offer that. Definitely not if they keep giddey which they probably shouldn't but probably will.

It's crazy the Bulls have four kind of legit point guards but also zero kind of legit point guards LOL.

League Circles · Post #12 » by **League Circles** » Wed Jan 22, 2025 2:43 am

Vuc: has played very well offensively and very poorly defensively to come out about average

Smith: I think a case can be made that he's been our second best player on the team this year. He's the best defensive center we've had since Tony Bradley who barely played and his numbers are quite good. I think Smith was a really good signing and I think we should try to find a way to start him next year potentially to pump up his value and see what he can do in a bigger role.

Patrick: I still think he can defend pretty well and with size that we desperately need. I think his shooting will come around a little bit but there's no denying He's had an outright bad season. Very disappointing and now his contract is definitely a problem until further notice.

Matas: Loved what I've seen from a talent and drive standpoint. I don't really care if he becomes a good three-point shooter, don't think that should be his strength. True potential star player.

Phillips: He's a pretty solid defender for his age, but he really doesn't do anything offensively other than occasional dunks. I would probably let him go next year.

Craig: same ol' G

Terry: probably as good of a defender as we have and he could handle the ball a little bit but his shooting is a mirage. He's not a good player.. but we're unwisely already on the hook for a salary next year. So unless we can dump him in a package deal I would pencil him in for a defensive specialist bench roll because we need to get some use out of him.

Giddey: He's really smart and a very talented passer and uses his body well to shield him from Defenders fenders letting him get weird driving buckets on a regular basis. Very good instinct for rebounding and a very good ball handler. One of the ugliest shots I've ever seen from an otherwise skill type NBA player. Very strange. Very bad defender but I think if he got physically stronger he would really be a point-4 and that is where I think he could be best. I want us to trade him or probably let him walk for nothing.

Zach: probably as good as we've seen him on both sides of the ball. He's still not an elite player, but he might be a great player right now. I really have no concerns with him. He's earning his contract and he's not old. I have no rush to move him whatsoever. He's the only sure thing we have.

Ayo: I'm not as impressed with Ayo as many of you are on either side of the ball. But he is a very competent three position utility player and he really plays smart. Not really bad at anything but not very strong in anything. Definitely a good player to have but not a necessary one.

Coby: Coby is my favorite Bulls player. I think he is among our best competitors and I think he plays hard. He has not had a great season but he's still averaging 20 and 5 per 36 on right about League average efficiency. I consider him an average defender. He's kind of a good but not great player and I'm okay with keeping him but I'm totally okay to trade him in a good deal for something good and maybe in a package.

Ball: looks great defensively and making good passes. His shooting has been poor. There's no way around that. I really don't know how he is missed so many games already this year. He's missed almost half of our games even though it feels like he's been healthy.wtf!

Carter: I hate his contract even though I advocated for it LOL. He looks like he could play competently if we needed him to on a regular basis due to injury.

Duarte: I have no clue

Talen: I really can't decide what I think of this guy, but ultimately I don't think he's a good team basketball player. Sometimes He's exciting to watch though.

Sanogo: I want to see him more especially if we trade Vuc

Post #13 » by **DuckIII** » Wed Jan 22, 2025 5:07 am

Ah yes, the outlook. Looks pretty much the same it has the last 2.5 years except knowing the Pat experiment is going to end with a ground out forcing the runner to second rather than a triple makes it even more sad and hopeless. So, yeah, pretty sweet.

Buzelis looks promising. I still like Ayo as a long term Bull.

Lavine looks incredible and is playing some of the best basketball of his career, and is one of personal favorites. Please trade him. That's how its going.

Post #14 » by **HomoSapien** » Wed Jan 22, 2025 6:51 am

I feel as depressed about this team as humanly possible.

It feels like we have no future, because we've whiffed on Pat and traded so much draft capital for Vuc/DDR. That said, a lot of this is perception and how we favorably perceive players that we drafted ourselves. Consider this alternative universe:

In 2020 the Bulls draft Patrick WIlliams at 4, but then aggressively offer a ton of cash to the notoriously cheap Rober Sarver for the 10th pick. With the 10th pick, they take Jalen Smith - a raw but highly skilled big man. The Bulls aren't done though and end up buying a 2nd round pick, hoping to find a diamond in the rough. With their second-rounder, they draft Talen Horton Tucker, one of the youngest players in the draft and reveal they believe he could be a pure scorer off the bench.

Then, in 2021, they decide to cash out on Alex Caruso while his value is at an all-time high. The Bulls use Golden State Warriors to create a bidding war for Caruso, but decide ultimately to trade him to OKC for the 6th pick. There they take Josh Giddey, who is the best passer in the draft and an instant triple-double threat right out of the gate.

BTW, did you know the Bulls only traded one 1st round pick to Orlando for Vucevic? Thankfully, due to draft protections, they were able to keep the 8th pick in 2022. They mistakenly pass on Franz Wagner, but draft Ayo Dosunmo who is still a top 12-15 player from that draft. They've also moved some cash and bought Chris Duarte (11th pick).

In 2022, we stumble and draft Dalen Terry - a guy that was a major reach. We were wrong, it happens.

We lose our 2023 pick in the Vuc trade, but in 2024, we get lucky and have Matas Buzelis unexpectedly drop to us at 11. Matas is a guy we likely consider with a top 5 pick.

All these guys are obviously on the roster, are pretty young, and most were high draft picks. Would the rebuild feel differently if we assembled the roster that way? I think it probably would. We likely feel higher on Giddey, Smith, and Ayo and would talk about how we need to clear the way for those guys to be featured more. Those three plus Buzelis all feel like potential long-term starters.

I think we tend to value homegrown draft picks simply because they’re “ours.” It’s easy to be hopeful when a player represents a blank slate of potential. None of these hypotheticals are meant to excuse AKME and their awful job, but I think there's an emotional bias we have of players we drafted over those we didn't draft that can sometimes cloud our judgment about their actual value or potential.

Dan Z · Post #15 » by **Dan Z** » Wed Jan 22, 2025 8:02 am

HomoSapien wrote:I feel as depressed about this team as humanly possible.

It feels like we have no future, because we've whiffed on Pat and traded so much draft capital for Vuc/DDR. That said, a lot of this is perception and how we favorably perceive players that we drafted ourselves. Consider this alternative universe:

In 2020 the Bulls draft Patrick WIlliams at 4, but then aggressively offer a ton of cash to the notoriously cheap Rober Sarver for the 10th pick. With the 10th pick, they take Jalen Smith - a raw but highly skilled big man. The Bulls aren't done though and end up buying a 2nd round pick, hoping to find a diamond in the rough. With their second-rounder, they draft Talen Horton Tucker, one of the youngest players in the draft and reveal they believe he could be a pure scorer off the bench.

Then, in 2021, they decide to cash out on Alex Caruso while his value is at an all-time high. The Bulls use Golden State Warriors to create a bidding war for Caruso, but decide ultimately to trade him to OKC for the 6th pick. There they take Josh Giddey, who is the best passer in the draft and an instant triple-double threat right out of the gate.

BTW, did you know the Bulls only traded one 1st round pick to Orlando for Vucevic? Thankfully, due to draft protections, they were able to keep the 8th pick in 2022. They mistakenly pass on Franz Wagner, but draft Ayo Dosunmo who is still a top 12-15 player from that draft. They've also moved some cash and bought Chris Duarte (11th pick).

In 2022, we stumble and draft Dalen Terry - a guy that was a major reach. We were wrong, it happens.

We lose our 2023 pick in the Vuc trade, but in 2024, we get lucky and have Matas Buzelis unexpectedly drop to us at 11. Matas is a guy we likely consider with a top 5 pick.

All these guys are obviously on the roster, are pretty young, and most were high draft picks. Would the rebuild feel differently if we assembled the roster that way? I think it probably would. We likely feel higher on Giddey, Smith, and Ayo and would talk about how we need to clear the way for those guys to be featured more. Those three plus Buzelis all feel like potential long-term starters.

I think we tend to value homegrown draft picks simply because they’re “ours.” It’s easy to be hopeful when a player represents a blank slate of potential. None of these hypotheticals are meant to excuse AKME and their awful job, but I think there's an emotional bias we have of players we drafted over those we didn't draft that can sometimes cloud our judgment about their actual value or potential.

I wish that was the reality AKME went on because it would show that they've been looking for a star player to build around. It'd make me feel like they might continue that search (even though I'd question their ability to judge talent, which I already do).

Unfortnately, that's not the real story.