The Coby and Ayo problem

[League Circles]

That's why I'd probably offer Coby a "lowball" extension for something along the lines of the MLE only for a few years. If he turns it down, which he probably would, then I'd be much more incentivized to trade him for best available offer regardless of how bad it is.

Ayo I think is overrated by Bulls fans and redundant with Ball in the mix. I don't see much point to keeping him, but also don't see him returning much trade value.

FWIW, people generally think both guys would have fetched mid 1st round picks, maybe multiple 1st round picks (though likely not very high upside ones). I think if you are wishy washy on them, those are good returns relative to the risk/reward of keeping/losing and potentially having to lock in to a lot of non top 3 guys.

Yeah, the devil's in the details. If it's like a #15 pick and a matching expiring contract, that's relatively appealing. If it's like a #23 pick and a longer matching contract coming back, that's terrible to me.

[MrSparkle]

One thing I'm OK with is giving them rich 1Y extensions (or Y2 club options) and coming back to the table in 2027, adding them for discounts if the big fish comes. I'd rather do that than add some new FA.

With BTW, specifically looking at 5 guys: Giannis, Jokic, Shai, Mitchell. Logically the first 3 get offered super-max extensions by their teams, and they take them, but who knows. Of course Luka & Davis, but I believe they work out max extensions with their new teams ASAP. Trae will be there, but I can't imagine paying $60M for him unless he's the second max we get (sure, I'd pair him with Giannis or Jokic ).

Even if you don't get the superstar FA, you have more options forming a good team with a completely open cap than you do with a bunch of mediocre players blocking the books.

Lining up every salary to expire in 2027 makes too much sense to me, but of course this FO doesn't make things easy. You probably need to dump Pat's $18M, maybe even Jalen's $9M to really open up options for 2 max slots and have room to resign or add whoever else.

Giannis/Jokic/Mitchell should be eligible for $59.5M. Shai for $53.4M. Total pipe-dream, but hey if you get 2 of these guys for $120M, Matas and next 2 FRPs are around $20M on the books... and the projected cap is $180M... after cap-holds... You'd still have $25M to work out discount deals (Lonzo, Ayo, whoever else)...

If there's a 10% of that working out, I take that over play-ins and 6% odds of getting a #1 pick like Flagg...

Regardless I do think tanking makes 100% more sense the next 2 seasons.

[Dan Z]

One thing I'm OK with is giving them rich 1Y extensions (or Y2 club options) and coming back to the table in 2027, adding them for discounts if the big fish comes.

With BTW, specifically looking at 5 guys: Giannis, Jokic, Shai, Trae, Mitchell. Logically the first 3 get offered super-max extensions by their teams, and they take them, but who knows.

Of course Luka & Davis, but I believe they work out max extensions with their new teams ASAP.

That leave Trae and Mitchell as the only two that possibly test free agency (in your scenario). Why would they pick Chicago?

[MrSparkle]

One thing I'm OK with is giving them rich 1Y extensions (or Y2 club options) and coming back to the table in 2027, adding them for discounts if the big fish comes.

With BTW, specifically looking at 5 guys: Giannis, Jokic, Shai, Trae, Mitchell. Logically the first 3 get offered super-max extensions by their teams, and they take them, but who knows.

Of course Luka & Davis, but I believe they work out max extensions with their new teams ASAP.

That leave Trae and Mitchell as the only two that possibly test free agency (in your scenario). Why would they pick Chicago?

Well, logically, but you we'll have to see.

Slightly interesting choice by Shai to represent himself. Rumors are there that Giannis wants to leave. Arturas' 1 freaking claim to fame in basketball right now is Jokic. There's a shred of a chance these guys hit big market Chicago.

FWIW, I wouldn't consider Trae unless he was the 2nd max and the 1st guy was Giannis or Jokic.

[Dez]

Trade both for whatever scraps we can get.

[ChettheJet]

I can keep either on but not both. Coby can score but he's inconsistent, not a great playmaker but good enough as a SG, not stellar on defense, gets to the basket. Ayo isn't a good enough shooter or scorer to start, he is stellar on defense even getting stuck at the PF, he handles the ball well but not great excels at going downhill to the basket.

I don't want to count on either to start at the PG or SG. The choice comes down to who they keep and can get. Huerter has a past of being a pretty good shooter, decent on defense not a PG which is fine. Is Giddey going to improve his shooting, he rebounds and passes the ball and how much is he going to cost? Lonzo Ball is going to be here, he should be the starting PG. Can they sign Tre Jones and for how much? THT is obviously not going to play much this year but he's a proven commodity he could come back. Stuck with Carter's expiring contract. Forget Terry. The Bulls have a lot guards who lack some fundamental aspect of the game.

Which of Coby Ayo they want to keep depends on who else is in the guard room they keep and WHEN they trade Vuc could they get a SG in return to be a step up from the two in question? It's not just a case of one or the other.

[Dan Z]

One thing I'm OK with is giving them rich 1Y extensions (or Y2 club options) and coming back to the table in 2027, adding them for discounts if the big fish comes.

With BTW, specifically looking at 5 guys: Giannis, Jokic, Shai, Trae, Mitchell. Logically the first 3 get offered super-max extensions by their teams, and they take them, but who knows.

Of course Luka & Davis, but I believe they work out max extensions with their new teams ASAP.

That leave Trae and Mitchell as the only two that possibly test free agency (in your scenario). Why would they pick Chicago?

Well, logically, but you we'll have to see.

Slightly interesting choice by Shai to represent himself. Rumors are there that Giannis wants to leave. Arturas' 1 freaking claim to fame in basketball right now is Jokic. There's a shred of a chance these guys hit big market Chicago.

FWIW, I wouldn't consider Trae unless he was the 2nd max and the 1st guy was Giannis or Jokic.

I don't think any of those players will really test free agency and, if that's the case, then what assets do the Bulls have to acquire them?

On top of that, why would Giannis (or Mitchell or Trae) want to come to Chicago to play with Coby White (or name whoever you want on the roster)?

If I'm AK I wouldn't plan much with free agency. I'd try to build through the draft and collecting assets to work with.

[jnrjr79]

To my understanding, the extensions they can offer is 140% of the last year of the player's salary or 140% of the league's estimated average salary. Is the latter the same number as the MLE?

Yes.

In any event, if they go that route, I would think it might be sufficient for Ayo, but not Coby, assuming Coby's current level of production is more or less consistent.

I'm not sure I'd value either of these guys more than the other. Coby's a pedestrian efficiency scorer on high volume due to his role on a bad team. Ayo's maybe a two way player, but I'm not actually that sure he's good at either end.

I agree on your keep/pay analysis as it pertains to Coby. For Ayo, you might sort of be in the sweet spot where you don't have to overpay and that what you can extend him for is about the right price. But IMO Ayo would need to play better than he has this season to be worth $17.5M.

I kind of now, when I really think of it, wonder if either guy is worth the 140%. I'm not entirely sure.

The other thing, aside from whether he's "worth" it, is the Bulls shouldn't trap themselves by having a bunch of just-ok guys (or in Pat's case, a not good player) on substantial contracts, before they've found their star players. We've talked about this before, but it's related to the issues with figuring out what to do with Giddey - you can't lock up a bunch of expensive role players and then go find your stars. That's backwards.

Yeah, agreed, this is fundamentally why I'd trade both.

Just a point of clarification here - when I'm saying whether a player is "worth" the number, I don't mean whether *I* think he's worth it or what the Bulls should pay him, just what I expect his salary to be were he to hit the market.

[Lexluthor]

I would not mind trading both this off season . Their improvements have been marginal at best since they have been here

[Dan Z]

I can keep either on but not both. Coby can score but he's inconsistent, not a great playmaker but good enough as a SG, not stellar on defense, gets to the basket. Ayo isn't a good enough shooter or scorer to start, he is stellar on defense even getting stuck at the PF, he handles the ball well but not great excels at going downhill to the basket.

I don't want to count on either to start at the PG or SG. The choice comes down to who they keep and can get. Huerter has a past of being a pretty good shooter, decent on defense not a PG which is fine. Is Giddey going to improve his shooting, he rebounds and passes the ball and how much is he going to cost? Lonzo Ball is going to be here, he should be the starting PG. Can they sign Tre Jones and for how much? THT is obviously not going to play much this year but he's a proven commodity he could come back. Stuck with Carter's expiring contract. Forget Terry. The Bulls have a lot guards who lack some fundamental aspect of the game.

Which of Coby Ayo they want to keep depends on who else is in the guard room they keep and WHEN they trade Vuc could they get a SG in return to be a step up from the two in question? It's not just a case of one or the other.

It also depends on how much they'll get for their next contract and how much trade value they might have.

With that in mind I bet Coby is worth more in a trade and would command more with his next contract. I like him, but that's why I'd trade him.

Ayo I might shop too, but I'd keep him around if the offers aren't very good. He's a good rotation player to have on the team.

[dougthonus]

Just a point of clarification here - when I'm saying whether a player is "worth" the number, I don't mean whether *I* think he's worth it or what the Bulls should pay him, just what I expect his salary to be were he to hit the market.

Yeah, agreed, I'm not sure Coby or Ayo are over MLE players on their next deals. A comparison to me is Dennis Schroder, whom turned down something like 80M because he thought he was going to get paid in FA then got a 5.8M 1 year deal, a vet mine deal, then a 2yr MLE deal.

They are in the class of player that maybe someone falls in love with or maybe not.

[Ben Wilson25]

It’s weird to remember they’re the same age with Coby having 2 more seasons under his belt.