Josh Giddey - Conundrum Killer

[Dan Z]

Bobby Marks: "the average starting point guard salary next season is $38M...Giddey had a heck of a year..."

So maybe you think Giddey wants too much so you let him walk in FA for nothing. Then you go get an average PG...so you trade your 1st round draft pick for Immanuel Quickley. He makes $33M. How much better is the team really.

Tough decisions coming up.

I don’t think it’ll be a tough decision. Giddey has AK over a barrel. There won’t be an extended negotiation or an offer sheet from another team. Just complete submission from the FO within days, if not hours, of the free agency period opening.

I think the question is how much do folks think the Bulls need to offer for him to just take the QO instead because I think there is a good chance that no other teams put in a bid knowing that the Bulls are 100% match any offer. There is a decent opportunity cost for teams lobbing in a high offer on a RFA as they are restricted from using that money to bid on other FA's for a week IIRC and may very well lose out on other key FA's during that time. If I'm the Bulls, I put a bid starting at the $27M level with max raises out there.

You think the Bulls are going to let the market decide his next contract? That would surprise me.

If a team with cap space goes after him then it might not matter if they lose out on other free agents. For example, Brooklyn has cap space and if they want Giddey they'll bid on him. In the meanwhile who are they missing out on?

https://www.spotrac.com/nba/free-agents/_/year/2025

[sco]

I'm reopening the conundrum. I think he's too limited for the playoffs (like many have already said, I know). You need to be able to shoot and play defense. Let Giddey walk.

At this point, it would be great to have the chance to actually find out. I will say that he may have been our best player against MIA though.

[Chi town]

I'm reopening the conundrum. I think he's too limited for the playoffs (like many have already said, I know). You need to be able to shoot and play defense. Let Giddey walk.

At this point, it would be great to have the chance to actually find out. I will say that he may have been our best player against MIA though.

I think Giddey showed elite competitiveness and IQ in playoff type games down the stretch. No doubt he can be a good playoff player. Some guys don’t have that gear. He does in spades.

Giddey’s shot will continue to improve on volume and attempts. No i don’t think he’s a 46% shooter on 5 3s per game like he showed on his hot streak. I do think he’s will add the transition secondary break 3 and that will help him a lot.

AK will pay him. 30M per minimum. I will be shocked if he has to get his own offer.

[waffle]

we can make him an offer? I think AK will make him a BIG offer.....but what will Giddey do?

I can't see why he wouldn't take it to the market.... Just make economic sense

[League Circles]

we can make him an offer? I think AK will make him a BIG offer.....but what will Giddey do?

I can't see why he wouldn't take it to the market.... Just make economic sense

Theoretically if he turns down a big offer from us, we might ostensibly make other moves that would prevent us from being able or willing to match or exceed an offer from another team that he may not actually want. Not sure how common it is for teams to "threaten" this, but if I understand the rules correctly, I sure would if in a situation like this for a player like Giddey. I'd make him a good fair offer prior to FA, and tell him if he doesn't accept it, we'll have to start looking at other moves as soon as FA starts, and that therefore the offer is not necessarily on the table anymore once he is allowed to start talking to other teams.

[Chi town]

we can make him an offer? I think AK will make him a BIG offer.....but what will Giddey do?

I can't see why he wouldn't take it to the market.... Just make economic sense

Sense seems like a loyal player and will take a reasonable offer. Unless someone is offering way more money I think he signs for 30M + and stays. He knows we traded for him and handed him the keys. He knows what it takes watching Shai and JDub work.

This summer he should be injury free and be working with the team all summer.

[Bulliever2020]

5/150 is my guess with the 5th year being a player option since AK loves giving those away

[Ctownbulls]

5/150 is my guess with the 5th year being a player option since AK loves giving those away

Honestly feels like that contract will be crushing moving forward.

Sent from my Pixel 9 using Tapatalk

[Chi town]

5/150 is my guess with the 5th year being a player option since AK loves giving those away

I think that’s his floor.

[WindyCityBorn]

I'm reopening the conundrum. I think he's too limited for the playoffs (like many have already said, I know). You need to be able to shoot and play defense. Let Giddey walk.

You’re on your own here. Period. He was the only guy with a pulse against Miami.

[Indomitable]

I'm reopening the conundrum. I think he's too limited for the playoffs (like many have already said, I know). You need to be able to shoot and play defense. Let Giddey walk.

You’re on your own here. Period. He was the only guy with a pulse against Miami.

One of 2

[dougthonus]

You think the Bulls are going to let the market decide his next contract? That would surprise me.

I agree that it would surprise me tool

If a team with cap space goes after him then it might not matter if they lose out on other free agents. For example, Brooklyn has cap space and if they want Giddey they'll bid on him. In the meanwhile who are they missing out on?

Literally, if Brooklyn doesn't go after him there is not another team in the NBA that can offer more than 20M. I wouldn't proactively negotiate with him on the fear that Brooklyn is going to offer him the max, nor would I care if we lost out on Giddey because we needed to pay him a contract that we will absolutely hate him after he's on it which is going to be the case if we are out bid anyway.

If Brooklyn has a max deal waiting for Giddey, they'd back channel it to his agent somehow, and he wouldn't take our deal anyway, because there is literally only one other possible bidder in the market, Giddey's agent will almost certainly find out if there is interest there and only take a deal with us if it won't beat their deal. I'd put the odds of us pre-emptively bidding prior to the market helping us at approximately 0%.

This isn't like all our other prenegotiations (Vuc, Coby, Pat) where you really didn't know how the market will form because they are secondary players and there are a lot of potential bidders, so you can't quantify the risk. Here, you know almost for certain that Giddey has a good idea what his other offer will be (or that there isn't one) prior to deciding on your offer. If he accepts it, by default you have overpaid.

But if I were to wager a guess, I'd say our management team is too hung up on Giddey and the optics of losing him to actually negotiate with him on merit.

[sco]

You think the Bulls are going to let the market decide his next contract? That would surprise me.

I agree that it would surprise me tool

If a team with cap space goes after him then it might not matter if they lose out on other free agents. For example, Brooklyn has cap space and if they want Giddey they'll bid on him. In the meanwhile who are they missing out on?

Literally, if Brooklyn doesn't go after him there is not another team in the NBA that can offer more than 20M. I wouldn't proactively negotiate with him on the fear that Brooklyn is going to offer him the max, nor would I care if we lost out on Giddey because we needed to pay him a contract that we will absolutely hate him after he's on it which is going to be the case if we are out bid anyway.

If Brooklyn has a max deal waiting for Giddey, they'd back channel it to his agent somehow, and he wouldn't take our deal anyway, because there is literally only one other possible bidder in the market, Giddey's agent will almost certainly find out if there is interest there and only take a deal with us if it won't beat their deal. I'd put the odds of us pre-emptively bidding prior to the market helping us at approximately 0%.

This isn't like all our other prenegotiations (Vuc, Coby, Pat) where you really didn't know how the market will form because they are secondary players and there are a lot of potential bidders, so you can't quantify the risk. Here, you know almost for certain that Giddey has a good idea what his other offer will be (or that there isn't one) prior to deciding on your offer. If he accepts it, by default you have overpaid.

But if I were to wager a guess, I'd say our management team is too hung up on Giddey and the optics of losing him to actually negotiate with him on merit.

IDK, I remember the specific question to AK if he's gonna do the wrong thing like he did with PWill and instead actually use the benefits that they receive as a RFA to not overpay. AK seemed to convey a sense that he wouldn't make the same mistake twice. That said, I would put a reasonable offer out there after the QO and say "we're prepared to offer you $25M/year and match anyone who comes in higher". IMO, if I'm BKN, I know CHI is probably gonna match any offer, and given the waiting period after Giddey would sign BKN's offer (1 week IIRC), I am limited in the other FA's I go after...so I might not bother and go after a different target where the team may not match, like Kuminga.

[Red Larrivee]

A little cold water on that stretch. Over half of those games were against tanking teams, and we lost all but 3 games to teams with .500+ records during that 19 game stretch, and 1 of those 3 was against the Nuggets sans Joker. Point being that I think his stats were inflated by tank season.

Everyone plays tanking teams. I don't think it's a meaningful factor.

From February on:

20/10/4 vs. Detroit
27/16/4 vs. Knicks
24/5/7 vs. Miami
21/8/12 vs. Clippers
19/13/9 vs. Orlando
26/10/12 vs. Miami
29/10/4 vs. Indiana
15/10/17 vs. Lakers
26/7/9 vs. Denver
25/14/11 vs. Lakers
28/16/11 vs. Miami

He was not bumslaying.

[Dan Z]

You think the Bulls are going to let the market decide his next contract? That would surprise me.

I agree that it would surprise me tool

If a team with cap space goes after him then it might not matter if they lose out on other free agents. For example, Brooklyn has cap space and if they want Giddey they'll bid on him. In the meanwhile who are they missing out on?

Literally, if Brooklyn doesn't go after him there is not another team in the NBA that can offer more than 20M. I wouldn't proactively negotiate with him on the fear that Brooklyn is going to offer him the max, nor would I care if we lost out on Giddey because we needed to pay him a contract that we will absolutely hate him after he's on it which is going to be the case if we are out bid anyway.

If Brooklyn has a max deal waiting for Giddey, they'd back channel it to his agent somehow, and he wouldn't take our deal anyway, because there is literally only one other possible bidder in the market, Giddey's agent will almost certainly find out if there is interest there and only take a deal with us if it won't beat their deal. I'd put the odds of us pre-emptively bidding prior to the market helping us at approximately 0%.

This isn't like all our other prenegotiations (Vuc, Coby, Pat) where you really didn't know how the market will form because they are secondary players and there are a lot of potential bidders, so you can't quantify the risk. Here, you know almost for certain that Giddey has a good idea what his other offer will be (or that there isn't one) prior to deciding on your offer. If he accepts it, by default you have overpaid.

But if I were to wager a guess, I'd say our management team is too hung up on Giddey and the optics of losing him to actually negotiate with him on merit.

IDK, I remember the specific question to AK if he's gonna do the wrong thing like he did with PWill and instead actually use the benefits that they receive as a RFA to not overpay. AK seemed to convey a sense that he wouldn't make the same mistake twice. That said, I would put a reasonable offer out there after the QO and say "we're prepared to offer you $25M/year and match anyone who comes in higher". IMO, if I'm BKN, I know CHI is probably gonna match any offer, and given the waiting period after Giddey would sign BKN's offer (1 week IIRC), I am limited in the other FA's I go after...so I might not bother and go after a different target where the team may not match, like Kuminga.

Are they interested in Kuminga?

Besides him who else would they be missing out on?

[dougthonus]

IDK, I remember the specific question to AK if he's gonna do the wrong thing like he did with PWill and instead actually use the benefits that they receive as a RFA to not overpay. AK seemed to convey a sense that he wouldn't make the same mistake twice. That said, I would put a reasonable offer out there after the QO and say "we're prepared to offer you $25M/year and match anyone who comes in higher". IMO, if I'm BKN, I know CHI is probably gonna match any offer, and given the waiting period after Giddey would sign BKN's offer (1 week IIRC), I am limited in the other FA's I go after...so I might not bother and go after a different target where the team may not match, like Kuminga.

I think that would be my approach as well, even at those dollars. We'll see what we do.

[PJSteven22]

I'm reopening the conundrum. I think he's too limited for the playoffs (like many have already said, I know). You need to be able to shoot and play defense. Let Giddey walk.

I understand the sentiment but AK isn’t letting that happen.

[Andi Obst]

As long as other teams are certain that you're going to match any offer anyway, they ("they" being only Brooklyn, really) won't be locking up their capspace for two days to make Giddey sign a pointless offer sheet. If Giddey is actually looking for 30+ mil a year and/or a player option, you make him find that on the open market. And he won't.

His strong play to finish the season definitely made me more optimistic about Giddey's future, but we shouldn't ignore that he was awful for a pretty significant stretch to start the season and that he's still a difficult player to build around.

[WindyCityBorn]

As long as other teams are certain that you're going to match any offer anyway, they ("they" being only Brooklyn, really) won't be locking up their capspace for two days to make Giddey sign a pointless offer sheet. If Giddey is actually looking for 30+ mil a year and/or a player option, you make him find that on the open market. And he won't.

His strong play to finish the season definitely made me more optimistic about Giddey's future, but we shouldn't ignore that he was awful for a pretty significant stretch to start the season and that he's still a difficult player to build around.

Don’t be so sure he can’t get $30 million. That isn’t build around money. It’s 3rd best player money.

[Andi Obst]

As long as other teams are certain that you're going to match any offer anyway, they ("they" being only Brooklyn, really) won't be locking up their capspace for two days to make Giddey sign a pointless offer sheet. If Giddey is actually looking for 30+ mil a year and/or a player option, you make him find that on the open market. And he won't.

His strong play to finish the season definitely made me more optimistic about Giddey's future, but we shouldn't ignore that he was awful for a pretty significant stretch to start the season and that he's still a difficult player to build around.

Don’t be so sure he can’t get $30 million. That isn’t build around money. It’s 3rd best player money.

I'd bet against it. But if he somehow finds that, good for him! Bulls match, everybody moves on.

Just don't gift him extra money. Learn from your mistakes. That's all I ask for.