Josh Giddey Thread 2.0

[League Circles]

Know what a lot of this feels like. Ever buy some stock and say "it's at 15 now, I'll sell if it gets to $20."? You won't sell at $18, because you just created an arbitrary point based on little or nothing? "I'll pay up to $250k for a house with one bathroom but no more." People like round numbers. When I ask this question, I'm genuinely not trying to be difficult, but I really want to know where people are coming up with $20 mill, $25 mill, $30 mill as his value or cap. I do see $26, $27 popping up as meeting in the middle, but where exactly does the $30 mill cap come from?

As far as I know, like in most sports, new contracts are based on similar previous contracts by previous players. Adjusted for the rising cap. Sugg's contract has literally been brought up repeatedly. Would love to see calculations where people actually put some thought into saying what they would pay. Use any metrics you want that you think count in business negotiations, be in points, rebounds, assists per dollar paid, similar age players entering the same contract situation and adjusting, etc.

If for instance, Jalen Suggs is the primary comp. Similar guys, similar situation guys would be like Jalen Green, Anferenee Simons, Scottie Barnes, etc. Guys don't have to be exactly like Giddey, what do guys you see as the same LEVEL as Giddey get as a percentage of the cap in RFA? Use those numbers. No two players are the same, every player's comp in history has to be adjusted.

Not trying to knock anybody. But can't tell you how many times I've had a client say "I want to get X for my house" using a price they made up in their head and ignoring actual market analysis which would say their house is probably worse more or less than they think it is. X is almost always a round number, " I want $150k, $200k, $250k." Never had a client say "I've looked at similar houses in the area sold over the last three months, price my house at $188k." Just sharing my personal experiences, I'm not claiming to be the perfect negotiator .

Maybe to use this analogy, it's like seeing a house you just hate all the esthetics of, and it's worth 300k based on the number of bedrooms, bathrooms, and neighborhood but after the home inspection, you realize it needs 20k of repairs, and then you really dislike the layout of the house.

Whether the house is worth 300k or not, you'd rather just go buy a different 300k house, but if the house was 250k, it's enough that you'd say I can live with the lousy layout and make all the repairs needed.

As for Suggs, I sure as hell wouldn't want Suggs at 30M a year either, so using a bad contract to justify this contract isn't compelling to me. If you find someone who likes Suggs at 30M then maybe that would be different, but you also couldn't find two more different players than Giddey and Suggs either, so it's not really much of a comparison.

There are very few contracts handed out in this range for a variety of reasons, but Herb Jones signed last year for 22M a year, I'd rather have Herb Jones than Josh Giddey, and so that's just as valid a comparison to me. He's as similar to Giddey as Suggs is (which is not even remotely similar).

Ignoring player comparisons though, because there aren't any similar ones, a question I ask is on a championship team, how many players do I have better than Josh Giddey, and my thought is 3 or more, and 30M is too much for your fourth starter. On a 40 win team, I think Giddey might be able to be your best or 2nd best player, and so if you look at it that way, 30M feels cheap.

From a Reinsdorf perspective, trying to build 1st round exit teams, Giddey at 30M isn't unreasonable, hence why I've said he's a floor raiser but ceiling lowering type guy. You don't have to agree with that assessment of course, it's just my assessment and is part of my pricing of him.

I agree with the notion that the critical question is "how many guys priced higher and lower than player X would I need on a contender or championship team", and I agree with Giddey the best estimate is probably 3 better players. Maaaybe two, maybe 4, but 3 is probably the safest bet.

My thing is, and I may very well be wrong, but I think going forward a team can indeed pay 30 mil (AAV) to their 4th starter. I'm probably a lot more comfortable than most people giving the overwhelming majority of my payroll to my starters though. Am I wrong?

[League Circles]

IMO there is no meaningful answer to the question "what is a guy worth?"

Players aren't commodities. Every player is unique and every team is unique. The true value of a given player varies significantly from team to team. Trading isn't an open market in the nba so you can't just view guys in a vacuum. Giddey's value to a team perfectly well suited to him may actually approach a max contract. To a team that already has much of what he provides, his value may actually approach the vet minimum. I truly believe that. Fortunately we're closer to the former than the latter.

[ghostinthepost1]

Aside from all the contract talk.

I can't help but think what if...what if Giddey is just the guy we saw at the end of the season when we put the ball in his hands. What if he's someone who can more or less average a triple double with 20+ ppg on 50/40/80 splits?

It doesn't seem as far fetched to me as everyone else thinks it is. He did it for 20 games last year, it's not like he hasn't shown flashes in the past as well. Is it so crazy to think someone now entering their prime could find some consistency?

He's the youngest player ever to record a triple double.
One of 8 guys ever to average 22/10/10 over a 10 game span.
He was the 6th overall pick and is still just 22 years old.

Maybe the Bulls bought low on someone super talented who had a terrible year in OKC due to off the court problems and on the court fit. OKC is a team built around amazing defense and ISO scoring. He is good at neither. This Bulls team wants to play super fast and move the ball. He is good at both those things. His three point shooting has gotten better every year. Maybe he's just a guy who works really hard on his game and improves his weaknesses.

Again, not talking about his contract at all. Pay him the least amount possible but I'm really excited to see what he does next year with the keys to the team.

[brentmoney]

Aside from all the contract talk.

I can't help but think what if...what if Giddey is just the guy we saw at the end of the season when we put the ball in his hands. What if he's someone who can more or less average a triple double with 20+ ppg on 50/40/80 splits?

It doesn't seem as far fetched to me as everyone else thinks it is. He did it for 20 games last year, it's not like he hasn't shown flashes in the past as well. Is it so crazy to think someone now entering their prime could find some consistency?

He's the youngest player ever to record a triple double.
One of 8 guys ever to average 22/10/10 over a 10 game span.
He was the 6th overall pick and is still just 22 years old.

Maybe the Bulls bought low on someone super talented who had a terrible year in OKC due to off the court problems and on the court fit. OKC is a team built around amazing defense and ISO scoring. He is good at neither. This Bulls team wants to play super fast and move the ball. He is good at both those things. His three point shooting has gotten better every year. Maybe he's just a guy who works really hard on his game and improves his weaknesses.

Again, not talking about his contract at all. Pay him the least amount possible but I'm really excited to see what he does next year with the keys to the team.

this is where I've been for a while

there are some reasons to be skeptical, but I'm surprised our position is like 30/70% of fans and not 40/60..

[sco]

Aside from all the contract talk.

I can't help but think what if...what if Giddey is just the guy we saw at the end of the season when we put the ball in his hands. What if he's someone who can more or less average a triple double with 20+ ppg on 50/40/80 splits?

It doesn't seem as far fetched to me as everyone else thinks it is. He did it for 20 games last year, it's not like he hasn't shown flashes in the past as well. Is it so crazy to think someone now entering their prime could find some consistency?

He's the youngest player ever to record a triple double.
One of 8 guys ever to average 22/10/10 over a 10 game span.
He was the 6th overall pick and is still just 22 years old.

Maybe the Bulls bought low on someone super talented who had a terrible year in OKC due to off the court problems and on the court fit. OKC is a team built around amazing defense and ISO scoring. He is good at neither. This Bulls team wants to play super fast and move the ball. He is good at both those things. His three point shooting has gotten better every year. Maybe he's just a guy who works really hard on his game and improves his weaknesses.

Again, not talking about his contract at all. Pay him the least amount possible but I'm really excited to see what he does next year with the keys to the team.

Love the optimism!

I would be thrilled if we signed "that guy" for a long-term deal. If we get him for less than $30M because his sample size was low, so much the better!

I said here last year, he'd be a keeper if he could get his defense to NBA average and make 3's above 36%. IMO he succeeded at both.

I would be completely happy to see what a core of Giddey/Coby/Matas looks like without Vuc can do. They may be great, they may suck...but adding Okoro will help the POA defense and moving on from Vuc would bring defense from the C spot.

[League Circles]

Aside from all the contract talk.

I can't help but think what if...what if Giddey is just the guy we saw at the end of the season when we put the ball in his hands. What if he's someone who can more or less average a triple double with 20+ ppg on 50/40/80 splits?

It doesn't seem as far fetched to me as everyone else thinks it is. He did it for 20 games last year, it's not like he hasn't shown flashes in the past as well. Is it so crazy to think someone now entering their prime could find some consistency?

He's the youngest player ever to record a triple double.
One of 8 guys ever to average 22/10/10 over a 10 game span.
He was the 6th overall pick and is still just 22 years old.

Maybe the Bulls bought low on someone super talented who had a terrible year in OKC due to off the court problems and on the court fit. OKC is a team built around amazing defense and ISO scoring. He is good at neither. This Bulls team wants to play super fast and move the ball. He is good at both those things. His three point shooting has gotten better every year. Maybe he's just a guy who works really hard on his game and improves his weaknesses.

Again, not talking about his contract at all. Pay him the least amount possible but I'm really excited to see what he does next year with the keys to the team.

Well that would be a good indication, but still not a clear sign of his value. For example, Russell Westbrook averaged a triple double 4 different full seasons with some big scoring numbers. He's always been a significantly better defender than Giddey will ever be able to be. So if you're optimistic on Giddey and think his greater potential efficiency than Westbrook's may outweigh the defensive disparity such that they are even. The question remains - was Westbrook truly ever the kind of guy that you could pay the max to and win a title with?

I'm a big Westbrook fan, and I'm not so sure. For example, I don't think any team with Allen Iverson could ever win a title. MANY good but not great, flawed players are absolutely ceiling lowerers IMO.

[ghostinthepost1]

Aside from all the contract talk.

I can't help but think what if...what if Giddey is just the guy we saw at the end of the season when we put the ball in his hands. What if he's someone who can more or less average a triple double with 20+ ppg on 50/40/80 splits?

It doesn't seem as far fetched to me as everyone else thinks it is. He did it for 20 games last year, it's not like he hasn't shown flashes in the past as well. Is it so crazy to think someone now entering their prime could find some consistency?

He's the youngest player ever to record a triple double.
One of 8 guys ever to average 22/10/10 over a 10 game span.
He was the 6th overall pick and is still just 22 years old.

Maybe the Bulls bought low on someone super talented who had a terrible year in OKC due to off the court problems and on the court fit. OKC is a team built around amazing defense and ISO scoring. He is good at neither. This Bulls team wants to play super fast and move the ball. He is good at both those things. His three point shooting has gotten better every year. Maybe he's just a guy who works really hard on his game and improves his weaknesses.

Again, not talking about his contract at all. Pay him the least amount possible but I'm really excited to see what he does next year with the keys to the team.

Well that would be a good indication, but still not a clear sign of his value. For example, Russell Westbrook averaged a triple double 4 different full seasons with some big scoring numbers. He's always been a significantly better defender than Giddey will ever be able to be. So if you're optimistic on Giddey and think his greater potential efficiency than Westbrook's may outweigh the defensive disparity such that they are even. The question remains - was Westbrook truly ever the kind of guy that you could pay the max to and win a title with?

I'm a big Westbrook fan, and I'm not so sure. For example, I don't think any team with Allen Iverson could ever win a title. MANY good but not great, flawed players are absolutely ceiling lowerers IMO.

It feels wrong to compare him to Westbrook because they're such different players. Westbrook has never had a single season that was as good as Giddey was from 3 last year. I'm not saying Giddey is better overall but just shooting wise he's already way better and that was always an issue with Westbrook. Giddey showed some ability to play off the ball last year with his cutting and spot shooting as well.

The real question for me is, is post All-star break Giddey one of the three best players on a championship level team and I think that answer is yes.

[ghostinthepost1]

Aside from all the contract talk.

I can't help but think what if...what if Giddey is just the guy we saw at the end of the season when we put the ball in his hands. What if he's someone who can more or less average a triple double with 20+ ppg on 50/40/80 splits?

It doesn't seem as far fetched to me as everyone else thinks it is. He did it for 20 games last year, it's not like he hasn't shown flashes in the past as well. Is it so crazy to think someone now entering their prime could find some consistency?

He's the youngest player ever to record a triple double.
One of 8 guys ever to average 22/10/10 over a 10 game span.
He was the 6th overall pick and is still just 22 years old.

Maybe the Bulls bought low on someone super talented who had a terrible year in OKC due to off the court problems and on the court fit. OKC is a team built around amazing defense and ISO scoring. He is good at neither. This Bulls team wants to play super fast and move the ball. He is good at both those things. His three point shooting has gotten better every year. Maybe he's just a guy who works really hard on his game and improves his weaknesses.

Again, not talking about his contract at all. Pay him the least amount possible but I'm really excited to see what he does next year with the keys to the team.

Love the optimism!

I would be thrilled if we signed "that guy" for a long-term deal. If we get him for less than $30M because his sample size was low, so much the better!

I said here last year, he'd be a keeper if he could get his defense to NBA average and make 3's above 36%. IMO he succeeded at both.

I would be completely happy to see what a core of Giddey/Coby/Matas looks like without Vuc can do. They may be great, they may suck...but adding Okoro will help the POA defense and moving on from Vuc would bring defense from the C spot.

I agree 100% on needing to move on from Vuc. I am out on all the centers currently on this Bulls team. None of them offer any vertical spacing, none of them can protect the rim in any meaningful way, and even shooting wise I don't get the sense other teams are scared of them.

I'd love to see if getting a bigger, more athletic, rim running, shot blocking center helps turn the defense around but it doesn't seem like AKME is interested in that kind of player.

[Infinity2152]

Know what a lot of this feels like. Ever buy some stock and say "it's at 15 now, I'll sell if it gets to $20."? You won't sell at $18, because you just created an arbitrary point based on little or nothing? "I'll pay up to $250k for a house with one bathroom but no more." People like round numbers. When I ask this question, I'm genuinely not trying to be difficult, but I really want to know where people are coming up with $20 mill, $25 mill, $30 mill as his value or cap. I do see $26, $27 popping up as meeting in the middle, but where exactly does the $30 mill cap come from?

As far as I know, like in most sports, new contracts are based on similar previous contracts by previous players. Adjusted for the rising cap. Sugg's contract has literally been brought up repeatedly. Would love to see calculations where people actually put some thought into saying what they would pay. Use any metrics you want that you think count in business negotiations, be in points, rebounds, assists per dollar paid, similar age players entering the same contract situation and adjusting, etc.

If for instance, Jalen Suggs is the primary comp. Similar guys, similar situation guys would be like Jalen Green, Anferenee Simons, Scottie Barnes, etc. Guys don't have to be exactly like Giddey, what do guys you see as the same LEVEL as Giddey get as a percentage of the cap in RFA? Use those numbers. No two players are the same, every player's comp in history has to be adjusted.

Not trying to knock anybody. But can't tell you how many times I've had a client say "I want to get X for my house" using a price they made up in their head and ignoring actual market analysis which would say their house is probably worse more or less than they think it is. X is almost always a round number, " I want $150k, $200k, $250k." Never had a client say "I've looked at similar houses in the area sold over the last three months, price my house at $188k." Just sharing my personal experiences, I'm not claiming to be the perfect negotiator .

Maybe to use this analogy, it's like seeing a house you just hate all the esthetics of, and it's worth 300k based on the number of bedrooms, bathrooms, and neighborhood but after the home inspection, you realize it needs 20k of repairs, and then you really dislike the layout of the house.

Whether the house is worth 300k or not, you'd rather just go buy a different 300k house, but if the house was 250k, it's enough that you'd say I can live with the lousy layout and make all the repairs needed.

As for Suggs, I sure as hell wouldn't want Suggs at 30M a year either, so using a bad contract to justify this contract isn't compelling to me. If you find someone who likes Suggs at 30M then maybe that would be different, but you also couldn't find two more different players than Giddey and Suggs either, so it's not really much of a comparison.

There are very few contracts handed out in this range for a variety of reasons, but Herb Jones signed last year for 22M a year, I'd rather have Herb Jones than Josh Giddey, and so that's just as valid a comparison to me. He's as similar to Giddey as Suggs is (which is not even remotely similar).

Ignoring player comparisons though, because there aren't any similar ones, a question I ask is on a championship team, how many players do I have better than Josh Giddey, and my thought is 3 or more, and 30M is too much for your fourth starter. On a 40 win team, I think Giddey might be able to be your best or 2nd best player, and so if you look at it that way, 30M feels cheap.

From a Reinsdorf perspective, trying to build 1st round exit teams, Giddey at 30M isn't unreasonable, hence why I've said he's a floor raiser but ceiling lowering type guy. You don't have to agree with that assessment of course, it's just my assessment and is part of my pricing of him.

I agree with the notion that the critical question is "how many guys priced higher and lower than player X would I need on a contender or championship team", and I agree with Giddey the best estimate is probably 3 better players. Maaaybe two, maybe 4, but 3 is probably the safest bet.

My thing is, and I may very well be wrong, but I think going forward a team can indeed pay 30 mil (AAV) to their 4th starter. I'm probably a lot more comfortable than most people giving the overwhelming majority of my payroll to my starters though. Am I wrong?

Again, kind of missing the point. Not disputing why you think Giddey is worth "X". You gave Herb Jones as a comp, thanks, at least that's something. Then you say he's closer to giddey than Suggs. Can you explain why, using any set of numbers, why Herb Jones is a better comp than Jalen Suggs? A guy primarily known for his defense is more comparable than 2 offensive players around the same age? Would you give two more comps, hopefully guys who look like they'll average at least 15pts/4-5 assts/gm, like maybe Kuminga for instance? Jones averaged 10, 4 and 3 with a 10 PER for $22 mill. One year shooting 34% or better from 3. Not last year, 31%.

Giddey looks like an 18, 7, and 7 guy to me, hard to compare him to a 10, 4, and 2 defensive player as a comp. But glad you brought up that comp. His agent is probably using at least three comps or more, that's pretty typical. People want to ignore stats, but i can't see how you do that when pricing players. If I'm comparing players, raw stats have to come first, imo. All advanced stats are adjusted, and the reason there are so many is because every one is missing something. TS% doesn't show if you're catching passes from Haliburton or Coby White as primary distributor. DPBM might look different if you're guarding PF's on one team, and guards on the next.

What other factors are we adjusting for? Age? Height? Three point shooting? Rebound rate? Asst rate? Ability to drive and finish? Two point shooting?
basketball IQ? Team fit? On ball defense? Scoring rate? Not all are quantifiable, but I think it's way more complicated than saying "Giddey's only worth X because he's not good in 1 or 2 areas" if he's far above average in others.

Just trying to come up with a consensus fair market value, excluding the current market situation. If Herb Jones is your comp, your $22 mill price target makes a lot of sense. Not talking about what the Bulls should pay him right now.

Clipped the wrong post, this is in response to doug, lol.

[samwana]

I tried to read the CBA about bonuses. What I came up with is you can have a 15% signing bonus and 20% of the contract may be incentive bonuses. Since I am not a math girl, I asked chatgpt and came up with the following numbers for a 150m contract frontloaded with bonuses as much as possible:

Year 1
Base Salary: 26.562.500 $

Incentives: 5.312.500 $

Signing Bonus (anteilig): 4.500.000 $

Cap Hit (Likely Total): 36.375.000 $

Year 2
Base Salary: 23.906.250 $

Incentives: 4.781.250 $

Signing Bonus (anteilig): 4.500.000 $

Cap Hit (Likely Total): 33.187.500 $

Year 3
Base Salary: 21.250.000 $

Incentives: 4.250.000 $

Signing Bonus (anteilig): 4.500.000 $

Cap Hit (Likely Total): 30.000.000 $

Year 4
Base Salary: 17.265.625 $

Incentives: 3.453.125 $

Signing Bonus (anteilig): 4.500.000 $

Cap Hit (Likely Total): 25.218.750 $

Year 5
Base Salary: 17.265.625 $

Incentives: 3.453.125 $

Signing Bonus (anteilig): 4.500.000 $

Cap Hit (Likely Total): 25.218.750 $


The start is a bit rough, but the last years are great.

[League Circles]

Aside from all the contract talk.

I can't help but think what if...what if Giddey is just the guy we saw at the end of the season when we put the ball in his hands. What if he's someone who can more or less average a triple double with 20+ ppg on 50/40/80 splits?

It doesn't seem as far fetched to me as everyone else thinks it is. He did it for 20 games last year, it's not like he hasn't shown flashes in the past as well. Is it so crazy to think someone now entering their prime could find some consistency?

He's the youngest player ever to record a triple double.
One of 8 guys ever to average 22/10/10 over a 10 game span.
He was the 6th overall pick and is still just 22 years old.

Maybe the Bulls bought low on someone super talented who had a terrible year in OKC due to off the court problems and on the court fit. OKC is a team built around amazing defense and ISO scoring. He is good at neither. This Bulls team wants to play super fast and move the ball. He is good at both those things. His three point shooting has gotten better every year. Maybe he's just a guy who works really hard on his game and improves his weaknesses.

Again, not talking about his contract at all. Pay him the least amount possible but I'm really excited to see what he does next year with the keys to the team.

Well that would be a good indication, but still not a clear sign of his value. For example, Russell Westbrook averaged a triple double 4 different full seasons with some big scoring numbers. He's always been a significantly better defender than Giddey will ever be able to be. So if you're optimistic on Giddey and think his greater potential efficiency than Westbrook's may outweigh the defensive disparity such that they are even. The question remains - was Westbrook truly ever the kind of guy that you could pay the max to and win a title with?

I'm a big Westbrook fan, and I'm not so sure. For example, I don't think any team with Allen Iverson could ever win a title. MANY good but not great, flawed players are absolutely ceiling lowerers IMO.

It feels wrong to compare him to Westbrook because they're such different players. Westbrook has never had a single season that was as good as Giddey was from 3 last year. I'm not saying Giddey is better overall but just shooting wise he's already way better and that was always an issue with Westbrook. Giddey showed some ability to play off the ball last year with his cutting and spot shooting as well.

The real question for me is, is post All-star break Giddey one of the three best players on a championship level team and I think that answer is yes.

Well, their career TS% is equal and I think you could argue Russell's 3 point shooting in his MVP year was as good or better than Giddey last season (RW had lower % but much higher volume).

I wouldn't call Giddey way better as a shooter yet than RW, but again, any shooting disparity is IMO easily cancelled out by the defensive disparity.

And at the end of the day, the critical point is that despite being a league MVP, was Russell Westbrook a guy who could be a top 3 guy on a title team........or a guy whose mere presence nearly ensures that his team won't win a title?

I'd agree post AS break Josh looked like a top 3 guy, but I see no reason to project that as his baseline going forward.

[League Circles]

[
Just trying to come up with a consensus fair market value, excluding the current market situation.

Clipped the wrong post, this is in response to doug, lol.

I know you didn't mean to quote me, but fwiw, IMO the concept of fair market value, let alone a consensus one, absolutely, positively cannot exist.

There really isn't much of what I'd call a market system in the NBA, and fairness isn't part of the equation in any way. It's just a negotiation of preferences with all sorts of posturing.

[MGB8]

Kyle Kuzma put up 15/6/2 last season, and before then had 2 seasons at about 22/7/4. But he plays bad D and had horrid efficiency (though the 2 bigger years at average 55% efficiency).

Giddey, for the year, put up 15/8/7, consistent (a bit less) than his 2nd year output. TS was a career high, but only “a bit better than average” 57%. Prior year was 55, year before was 53.

People consider Kuzma at 21 MPY AAV a horrible, nearly untradable contract. Yes, older now and different trajectory - but the lack of D is an issue for Giddey.

Tre Mann, just turned 24, just put up 14/3/3 in 75%-89% of Giddey minutes, though 54% efficiency (but was better year prior)… and got 8M AAV. Davion Mitchell put up less stats at about 10/3/7 but similar efficiency and much better D… got 12 M AAV over 2 years.

FVV, the 2-way playing engine for Houston got 25 M AAV.

The market appears to be splitting into “young MAX worthy” evaluations / extensions, generally not including 1-way players…. Then a huge drop off where mid-tier players are uncommon and hard to place. I think that is where the Herb Jones example, a versatile 3+D defensive player who can defend pretty much 1-5 but is only a role player on offense (meh efficiency last year, better before), gets compared to Giddey who doesn’t give you much on D but has far higher upside on O.

Mind you, if I were Giddey I think 25 M would be my floor given everything - and I would probably want that bit as AAV but as floor (think Trey Murphy contract). I think that is reasonable for him to demand given upside and age. But the higher end production was for too small a period over too unique circumstances to be determinative - kind of have to use his whole season numbers and factor in limitations on D.

[Infinity2152]

Are we looking at is he a $30 mill player or do players of his caliber at his age showing what he has shown get $30 mill? I think that's an important difference. When I compare him to guys like Anfernee Simons, Jalen Suggs, Jalen Green, it's because like it or not, scoring guards at that level get paid around that amount despite their flaws. All those guys are flawed and they got the money. That's the going rate. Sure, you can try to get a deal. We should.

But I think we should acknowledge those types of players get around that money. Giddey would actually be cheaper, adjusting for cap increases. Whether it's smart, another question. I think when we traded for Giddey, we had to know that was a possibility. He came to the Bulls talking about $30 mill and played great.

We'll have that much cap space next summer. Anybody who thinks we can get a FA that's a better 5 year prospect than Giddey with $30 mill AAV, tell me who. A $30 mill guy is not supposed to be the best player. Probably not the second best on most winning teams.

Kuzma and FVF aren't in the same age range at all, and it's commonly said FVF's contract at $25 mill is a great deal. He did that to stay on a top contender. If FVF contract is a great deal $25 mill at his age, what's a "fair" deal?

As far as Kuzma, he still got the bag. Point was players at that level get the bag, not which ones pan out and which ones don't. They put up those numbers, they get paid. Tre Mann, Davion Mitchell haven't put up consistent numbers over any period of time, and signed short term contracts because there's no money available imo. Giddey's QO is more than that, lmao! Tre Mann is backup to Lamelo, I'd compare him to Giddey more than Mann. Mann played 13 games in 2024. Davion Micthell averaged 8 pts, 2 rbs, 5 assts in 27 mins last year.

Separate question: Is Coby worth $30 mill/AAV in today's money? Is he a better 5 year prospect than Giddey? Not saying Coby's getting that.

[MGB8]

Are we looking at is he a $30 mill player or do players of his caliber at his age showing what he has shown get $30 mill? I think that's an important difference. When I compare him to guys like Anfernee Simons, Jalen Suggs, Jalen Green, it's because like it or not, scoring guards at that level get paid around that amount despite their flaws. All those guys are flawed and they got the money. That's the going rate. Sure, you can try to get a deal. We should.

But I think we should acknowledge those types of players get around that money. Giddey would actually be cheaper, adjusting for cap increases. Whether it's smart, another question. I think when we traded for Giddey, we had to know that was a possibility. He came to the Bulls talking about $30 mill and played great.

We'll have that much cap space next summer. Anybody who thinks we can get a FA that's a better 5 year prospect than Giddey with $30 mill AAV, tell me who. A $30 mill guy is not supposed to be the best player. Probably not the second best on most winning teams.

Separate question: Is Coby worth $30 mill/AAV in today's money? Is he a better 5 year prospect than Giddey? Not saying Coby's getting that.

What happened in the past, pre 2nd Apron, IS IRRELEVANT. The rules changed. It is THIS YEAR’S SPENDING that tells you something, not past.

Take a look at 25 YO RJ Barrett. 21/6/5, middling 55% efficiency, but was higher than Giddey ever put up in a year the year prior at 58%. Meh on D but better than Giddey on the perimeter. 29 M AAV… is considered a bad deal now. Simons at 27 M … and no one willing to give up any assets for him. It was him plus picks for a breaking-down Jrue (though with more signs of breakdown just player for player). Things are different.

Giddey is neither a bottom feeder or pore limited guy, nor a MAX guy that you would stake your franchise’s future on as a franchise centerpiece. So that gets very hard in the 2nd apron environment to value. But saying that he looks like a x/y/z guy when he hasn’t actually put that up for an entire season… anyone can say that about any player that flashes for a stretch.

If you pay Giddey even 25 M but he reverts - sub 35% 3 pt percentages, worse off ball, can’t defend… now even that contract is crippling, where Pat’s lesser 18 M AAV is completely immovable. There is risk at even that level, and the higher it goes, the more risk. I would probably go up to 30 M AAV on a shorter deal, maybe 3 years, 4th year TO, maybe 3rd year only partially guaranteed, for Giddey… but even that could hurt a lot if he didn’t improve on his prior season averages. If the prior season average is all that you get, he should be a low 20s or below guy.

[dougthonus]

My thing is, and I may very well be wrong, but I think going forward a team can indeed pay 30 mil (AAV) to their 4th starter. I'm probably a lot more comfortable than most people giving the overwhelming majority of my payroll to my starters though. Am I wrong?

That contract would rate at about 17% of the salary cap assuming 8% raises and 8% cap growth (that seems reasonable that these will be close to inline, though I believe infinity mentioned he thinks growth next year will be 7% and it will likely slow after that as most growth is based on the new TV deal and future growth is a bit higher due to the 10% per year cap that capped the initial growth, so probably he'll range from 17%-19% of the cap over the life of the contract).

If you have two max guys, say one 30% guy and one 35% guy because one is a super duper star, and one is an all-star, and then viewing Giddey as a 3B/4A type guy say the other guy better than him is a 22% cap guy, you're now at 104% of your cap with your top 4. Say you have two more MLE type guys at 8% of the cap each, and fill out the roster at mostly vet min / BAE draft picks ranging from 2%-5% and averaging about 3% you've got another 24% total on the cap. That puts your total cap space at 144%.

That would be building a really shallow team with an underpaid 5th/6th best guys and going bottom of the barrel on the rest of the roster. If you apply that to this year's numbers, it would put us at about 12M over the 2nd apron to have that roster with a tax bill of around 115M dollars if my quick math is correct. Something akin to a more expensive version of the Knicks.

I think to pay Giddey this deal, you have to view him as a clear #3 on a good team. I could see why someone would make that case, I just don't personally believe it, nor do I necessarily want to commit to the #3 guy with no #1 or #2 guy, but I certainly understand the dynamics of why you might. The consequence of not keeping Giddey is that you should do a deep rebuild, and if you were going to do that, you really hosed up by not starting it last year and not doing a bunch of other things, however, even if the best time to do something was last year, the next best time is now.

[Infinity2152]

Are we looking at is he a $30 mill player or do players of his caliber at his age showing what he has shown get $30 mill? I think that's an important difference. When I compare him to guys like Anfernee Simons, Jalen Suggs, Jalen Green, it's because like it or not, scoring guards at that level get paid around that amount despite their flaws. All those guys are flawed and they got the money. That's the going rate. Sure, you can try to get a deal. We should.

But I think we should acknowledge those types of players get around that money. Giddey would actually be cheaper, adjusting for cap increases. Whether it's smart, another question. I think when we traded for Giddey, we had to know that was a possibility. He came to the Bulls talking about $30 mill and played great.

We'll have that much cap space next summer. Anybody who thinks we can get a FA that's a better 5 year prospect than Giddey with $30 mill AAV, tell me who. A $30 mill guy is not supposed to be the best player. Probably not the second best on most winning teams.

Separate question: Is Coby worth $30 mill/AAV in today's money? Is he a better 5 year prospect than Giddey? Not saying Coby's getting that.

What happened in the past, pre 2nd Apron, IS IRRELEVANT. The rules changed. It is THIS YEAR’S SPENDING that tells you something, not past.

Take a look at 25 YO RJ Barrett. 21/6/5, middling 55% efficiency, but was higher than Giddey ever put up in a year the year prior at 58%. Meh on D but better than Giddey on the perimeter. 29 M AAV… is considered a bad deal now. Simons at 27 M … and no one willing to give up any assets for him. It was him plus picks for a breaking-down Jrue (though with more signs of breakdown just player for player). Things are different.

Giddey is neither a bottom feeder or pore limited guy, nor a MAX guy that you would stake your franchise’s future on as a franchise centerpiece. So that gets very hard in the 2nd apron environment to value. But saying that he looks like a x/y/z guy when he hasn’t actually put that up for an entire season… anyone can say that about any player that flashes for a stretch.

If you pay Giddey even 25 M but he reverts - sub 35% 3 pt percentages, worse off ball, can’t defend… now even that contract is crippling, where Pat’s lesser 18 M AAV is completely immovable. There is risk at even that level, and the higher it goes, the more risk. I would probably go up to 30 M AAV on a shorter deal, maybe 3 years, 4th year TO, maybe 3rd year only partially guaranteed, for Giddey… but even that could hurt a lot if he didn’t improve on his prior season averages. If the prior season average is all that you get, he should be a low 20s or below guy.

This year's spending tells you something? You're comparing a guy who averaged 8pts, 5 assts, 2 rbs to Giddey, lmao!

Answer this: This year, how many teams had cap space to sign a top FA?
Did the one team that had cap space start the off season saying they weren't signing RFA's?

Now, should I look at a season that is extremely atypical and use that as my basis? Is next year's free agency likely to be similar to this season? 20+ teams projected to have cap space.

Then you're obfuscating the argument again. So what if you or anyone thinks they don't deserve those contracts? They got them. Therefore that was their market value. We could use 5 guys that exceeded their contracts and teams were extremely happy 3 years later. So what? Doesn't change what their market value was at the time of signing. Market value is typically the amount of money a player can get in an unrestricted market. Not whether teams will regret it in the future. This market is restricted, so Giddey likely gets less than he could in an unrestricted market. Doesn't change his market value over the next 5 years.

How would $25 mill contract crippling assuming Giddey is even average starter level? That's average starter pay. Cap will be over $200 mill during a 5 year contract. There's risk in every signing. If you're projecting Giddey to be worse than an average starter for the next 5 years, I see why you wouldn't want to pay him. Pat's contract is crippling ish either. We'll have enough cap to sign two max players next summer if we want. If we were paying him 8 mill/yr, that extra $10 mill in cap space ain't changing the Bulls much.

[MGB8]

I think timing may be impacting expectations. I came out of law school in a recession. Where prior students would get jobs at top firms in the high 100s (including bonuses) it seemingly went down 20% or so YoY all of the sudden, with many fewer such jobs. Took 5 or 6 years to get back to where it was just prior.

Giddey is effectively “coming out” in an NBA “middle/upper middle class” recession.

[Infinity2152]

I think timing may be impacting expectations. I came out of law school in a recession. Where prior students would get jobs at top firms in the high 100s (including bonuses) it seemingly went down 20% or so YoY all of the sudden, with many fewer such jobs. Took 5 or 6 years to get back to where it was just prior.

Giddey is effectively “coming out” in an NBA “middle/upper middle class” recession.

That's fair. There's definitely a disconnect between market value and what players can get this summer. Look at Kuminga, Giddey, Cam Thomas. What the Bucks had to do to offer Myles Turner a below $30 mill/AAV contract. Lot of corrections next summer. Seems teams would be more financially responsible next year, but we'll see.

When you see a team max Chet Holgrem and Jalen Williams with a supermax already on the roster. Are they both max players? Teams were dealing with the second apron last season, but some teams had cap space. What did free agency look like? Don't think teams have learned a lesson, they just literally can't do anything and some may reset their tax window next year. Ton of season ending injuries causing a lot of this cap clearing. Do the Celtics make those moves if Tatum isn't injured? Are the Pacers as tight with the money if Haliburton plays this season?

Think we have to see at least one season where there are multiple teams with the ability to sign huge contracts and not do it to think they've changed.

[MGB8]

Are we looking at is he a $30 mill player or do players of his caliber at his age showing what he has shown get $30 mill? I think that's an important difference. When I compare him to guys like Anfernee Simons, Jalen Suggs, Jalen Green, it's because like it or not, scoring guards at that level get paid around that amount despite their flaws. All those guys are flawed and they got the money. That's the going rate. Sure, you can try to get a deal. We should.

But I think we should acknowledge those types of players get around that money. Giddey would actually be cheaper, adjusting for cap increases. Whether it's smart, another question. I think when we traded for Giddey, we had to know that was a possibility. He came to the Bulls talking about $30 mill and played great.

We'll have that much cap space next summer. Anybody who thinks we can get a FA that's a better 5 year prospect than Giddey with $30 mill AAV, tell me who. A $30 mill guy is not supposed to be the best player. Probably not the second best on most winning teams.

Separate question: Is Coby worth $30 mill/AAV in today's money? Is he a better 5 year prospect than Giddey? Not saying Coby's getting that.

What happened in the past, pre 2nd Apron, IS IRRELEVANT. The rules changed. It is THIS YEAR’S SPENDING that tells you something, not past.

Take a look at 25 YO RJ Barrett. 21/6/5, middling 55% efficiency, but was higher than Giddey ever put up in a year the year prior at 58%. Meh on D but better than Giddey on the perimeter. 29 M AAV… is considered a bad deal now. Simons at 27 M … and no one willing to give up any assets for him. It was him plus picks for a breaking-down Jrue (though with more signs of breakdown just player for player). Things are different.

Giddey is neither a bottom feeder or pore limited guy, nor a MAX guy that you would stake your franchise’s future on as a franchise centerpiece. So that gets very hard in the 2nd apron environment to value. But saying that he looks like a x/y/z guy when he hasn’t actually put that up for an entire season… anyone can say that about any player that flashes for a stretch.

If you pay Giddey even 25 M but he reverts - sub 35% 3 pt percentages, worse off ball, can’t defend… now even that contract is crippling, where Pat’s lesser 18 M AAV is completely immovable. There is risk at even that level, and the higher it goes, the more risk. I would probably go up to 30 M AAV on a shorter deal, maybe 3 years, 4th year TO, maybe 3rd year only partially guaranteed, for Giddey… but even that could hurt a lot if he didn’t improve on his prior season averages. If the prior season average is all that you get, he should be a low 20s or below guy.

This year's spending tells you something? You're comparing a guy who averaged 8pts, 5 assts, 2 rbs to Giddey, lmao!

Answer this: This year, how many teams had cap space to sign a top FA?
Did the one team that had cap space start the off season saying they weren't signing RFA's?

Now, should I look at a season that is extremely atypical and use that as my basis? Is next year's free agency likely to be similar to this season? 20+ teams projected to have cap space.

Then you're obfuscating the argument again. So what if you or anyone thinks they don't deserve those contracts? They got them. Therefore that was their market value. We could use 5 guys that exceeded their contracts and teams were extremely happy 3 years later. So what? Doesn't change what their market value was at the time of signing. Market value is typically the amount of money a player can get in an unrestricted market. Not whether teams will regret it in the future. This market is restricted, so Giddey likely gets less than he could in an unrestricted market. Doesn't change his market value over the next 5 years.

Stop with the BS accusations… in fact projecting since you are the one arguing in bad faith. You said Giddey should be given the Max he can get if needed, then denied it and accused others of lying for accurately recalling your points.

And you again mislead here with the 8/5/2 example of Davion, at 12 M AAv, which is only 40% of 30 M. Davion is a MUCH better defender than Giddey. He has started. He is young. He had similar efficiency. Is he only 40% the player in terms of salary worth ? Not, say, 60%? Or at least 50%? Why is Giddey’s 14-15/8/7 where he is a liability on D at the perimeter (middling at the 3) with only one year of even decent 3 pt shooting (Mitchell has more and better) worth *more than double * what Davion is worth? Do you even have an argument there?