Calling all Cap Gurus.....Trade v. Wait

[Moon]

Ben Wallace= awfull contract

What incentivew do the Bulls have to wait for Ben's contact to expire naturally, rather than getting the short side of a trade?

In other words, what is the likelyhood of LeBron (or another superstar) becoming available only to find Chicago doesn't have the $ or flexibility to do the deal?

[ozbull]

Ive been thinking about this aswell...

With the Heat doing terribly and looking at a LONG term re-build, you could add Wade to the list of super stars possibly looking to move into a big market.

You would just about kill Paxson if he stuffed up a chance of getting one of those big names but can he really manage a roster and make plans on the chance that one of those big names leaves?

[suckfish]

With the Heat doing terribly and looking at a LONG term re-build, you could add Wade to the list of super stars possibly looking to move into a big market.

A backcourt or combination of Wade plus Rose/Mayo or Beasley could be deadly. Some would argue that a Wade and Mayo/Rose backcourt wouldn't be the ideal pairing, but it's still a lethally young guard combo.

Assuming the Heat grab a top 3 pick and providing that the selected player turns out as good as projected, the Heat could be well on their way to a nice little rebuild. The next stage would be filling the team in around Wade and the pick, I think that could be enough to keep Wade in Miami, that and the fact they he has already won a championship with the Heat so it may be an ambition of his to win more championships with his original club.

[Tommy Udo 6]

The Bulls plan was to use Ben for 3 years & then either trade his expiring contract ($14 million) in last season to a team wanting to clear cap space - or let it expire naturally so that they themselves can sign LeBron, Wade, Bosh, or whomever else is available the off season after Ben's contract expires

However, Ben has been so abysmal that they will probably clearly rethink their plan. Ben apparently has retired but the Bulls were unaware of that until after signing him

If Ben G & Deng get the contracts that they WANT, it will prevent the Bulls from going after anyone when Ben W's contract is up

If Ben G & Deng take the contracts that the Bulls offered, all should be fine.

However - both have shown that it's all about the contract, not the team. It is fantasy to think they will willingly accept less so that the team can sign a star

[dougthonus]

I discussed a lot of this at length in the 2010/11 plan which focused on trying to pry LeBron from Cleveland.

More or less the Bulls could clear cap space by just trading Nocioni for a shorter contract and not using the MLE on any deals that extend into the 2010/11 season.

Tyrus and Thabo need to be reupped that year, so we could decide at that point how to handle that.

[coldfish]

However - both have shown that it's all about the contract, not the team. It is fantasy to think they will willingly accept less so that the team can sign a star

I really haven't seen that as being the case. They both struggled early on, but I didn't see them *playing* differently than they have in the past. If anything, with Gordon, he was being too passive. From time to time, they hold the ball and put up shots without moving it, but let's be realistic, there aren't many people on this team to move it to.

If they had pulled a Richardson / Murphy, then I can see bashing them. Now those guys were all about the contracts. However, Lu and Ben seem to be handling themselves in a reasonable manner off the court.

[Tommy Udo 6]

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I really haven't seen that as being the case. They both struggled early on, but I didn't see them *playing* differently than they have in the past. If anything, with Gordon, he was being too passive. From time to time, they hold the ball and put up shots without moving it, but let's be realistic, there aren't many people on this team to move it to.

If they had pulled a Richardson / Murphy, then I can see bashing them. Now those guys were all about the contracts. However, Lu and Ben seem to be handling themselves in a reasonable manner off the court.

I wasnt talking about their playing on the court

I mean that both rejected an average of at least $10 million a season ($50 million/5 yrs for Gordon & either $57 mil/5 or $50mil/5 for Deng depending on whose PR spin you believe). They are not going to lower their initial demands (unknown at present) nor will they accept the Bulls offer from last season unless forced to (by lack of better offers)

[coldfish]

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I wasnt talking about their playing on the court

I mean that both rejected an average of at least $10 million a season ($50 million/5 yrs for Gordon & either $57 mil/5 or $50mil/5 for Deng depending on whose PR spin you believe). They are not going to lower their initial demands (unknown at present) nor will they accept the Bulls offer from last season unless forced to (by lack of better offers)

I see. Never mind then.

[Friend_Of_Haley]

Unless we aren't resigning Deng and Gordon I don't see any plan that would really get us under the cap for 2010 for a LeBron, Wade sweepstakes. Resigning both or one and dumping Hinrich and Nocioni could work.

The real huge variable in this is that we have no idea of how much the cap will change each offseason. Just based off of memory because I'm too lazy to calculate the numbers, the past few years, the salary cap has been increasing less and less. I want to say it was as high as a 10% increase a couple years ago, and only a few % this past off season. There is a set formula that determines the cap. Its based off of player's salaries and some other stuff. I would imagine if you put in a lot of time you might be able to estimate the increases or decreases in the cap, but we really don't know.

For 2010 though, these are what our players will be making:
*estimate
Hinrich: 9.25
Nocioni: 6.85
Deng*: 11.5
Gordon*:10.5
Noah: 3.1 (TO)
That right there is 41.2.
Tyrus will have a big cap hold. I'm not sure if thats already a number written into his contract, but lets say it is 10M. That puts us at 51.2M, and assumes we renounce Thabo rights. We'll also have 2 mid round raft pick ~4M. Add in the cap hold for the 2010 first rounder ~1.5M. We are at 56.7M. If Thomas' first year of his new contract isn't as big as his cap hold, we could try to sign him quickly to lower that amount. To round out the roster with whatever players we have, I'm going to estimate that we are at 60M for 11 players. A free agent would get us the the 12 man minimum.

The salary cap this offseason is 55.6 Now to sign Lebron or Wade to a MAX deal that they'd want, you are talking about the neighborhood of 18M you need in cap space. So unless the salary cap balloons from 55.6 to 78M we aren't FA players. Even if you could move Nocioni for an expiring and not resign Gordon, you are at 42.65, but you probably suck too, so those guys on rookie deals will cost more, so lets round it up to 45M. The cap still needs to be 63. Thats 8M it needs to increase. We could try to skimp more, say not pick up Noah's option, but the more we skimp on players, the worse we suck and the less appealing we look to a superstar looking for a new home.

So as far as the FA route, it doesn't really look promising.

However because there will be so many teams looking to get out under the cap for that magical FA season, we may be able to dangle Wallace and fillers for a all star type player. So trading Wallace in the final year of his contract looks to be the most beneficial for us. The problem is you have to put up with him for a year and a half. I think its worth the headache.

[DanTown8587]

The good news is Paxson front loaded the wallace deal, but the bad news is he gave way to big extensions to Kirk and Andres. Paxson fell in love with the players he got and made bad decisions about cap allocation. If he can convince Memphis they still want Andres for Miller and let Gordon walk, you could replace Andres with a 4 million guy and Miller would be 9 million, so about 1.5 less than Ben, for a 6 million dollar saving. The Wallace deal though, they would have to take either a bigger deal for less time or a much worse player (think Darius Miles) for the same amount of time without sweeting the pot.

[Future Coach]

Unless we aren't resigning Deng and Gordon I don't see any plan that would really get us under the cap for 2010 for a LeBron, Wade sweepstakes. Resigning both or one and dumping Hinrich and Nocioni could work.

I don't think there is a chance we resign gordon, unless it is either for the qualifying offer or we hold him prisoner via him being a restricted free agent. He wants out of this system and I don't blame him. And I personally am not a big fan of the restricted free agent tag, while I understand it's good for the NBA to maintain a product with roster consistency, it can do a disservice to a player if they clearly want out.
And I have no problems not resigning gordon, I am not a fan of the undersized sg and I am very unsure why paxson drafted him as high as he did if there was never an intention to try to turn him into a pg (as our coaching staff has proved). Why not draft igudola at 3 then make the deng trade as well, or draft deng at 3 then make the igudola trade with the suns? Think of the wing options we would have in igudola and deng. Not to mention drafting hinrich the year before over tj ford was very suspect in itself.

Anyways I don't think gordon should be in our salary conversations past this year, he wants out. And the same could be said for tyrus and noah in the upcoming future with the way we treat them. Either paxson needs to get on the same page with the coaching staff or everyone needs to be fired. It's completely useless to draft players to ride the bench, even though pax seemingly has no issues with it.

anyways I am all for going after wade when he is available. Although like suckfish mentioned, if the heat tank the rest of the season (or just continue to play how they are) they could end up with a very good player in a pretty deep draft. Adding some more talent to the roster could be enough to keep wade in miami. I think lebron is brooklyn bound so I'm not getting my hopes up. Bosh I am not anticipating to leave as the raptors have young talent around him that complement him well.

Also, basketball players are becoming some of the most greedy **** on the planet. How are deng and gordon going to turn down 10+mill contracts when nearly half the world's population lives off of less than $2 a day. I was especially surprised by deng turning down that kind of money with how much world knowledge he seems to have. Thinking you are too good to make that kind of money, we're talking millions, is insulting to me and should be to the rest of humanity. Self-centered ****. The type of player I want on my team would be either the one who doesn't demand a lot of money but instead demands that the money be spent on building a winning team around that player, where winning and not a payday is the priority. Or if the player did demand a lot of money then not only should that player be winning they should be giving away millions yearly towards social causes, not just making home improvements. I guess that is far too idealistic, sadly enough, and I suppose I apologize for going on so long. But it's just sad that for NBA players basketball isn't a game but a business.