Ben B. wrote:-= original quote snipped =-
Your example of Outlaw does not prove what you think it does.
Outlaw's per-minute stats have been very consistent b/w his 1st and 4th seasons. They actually went down a bit in his 2nd and 3rd season and this year, his 4th, they've gone up to the level of his 1st season (and are a little bit better, but not a lot).
There is absolutely no reason to think that Outlaw couldn't have performed well in a lot more minutes from year 1. The fact that without a lot of PT it took him 3 more seasons just to get back to his year 1 level of productivity might not prove that his lack of PT hurt him, but it sure as HECK does not prove (or even mildly suggest) that he made as much progress with little PT as he would have done with a lot more PT.
I disagree with your idea that per minute stats remain the same over the players career. Most players have consistent Per minute numbers because they play the same role. That role, whatever it is, usually is set within a team's offense and defense. The two stats that really vary within those roles are the mistake stats (TO's, fouls) and the offensive efficiency stats (FT%, FG%, 3pt%, FG%, basically, TS%). The rest mostly consists on whether the role of the player had expanded or shrunk.
To give an example, look at Allen Iverson. He's a player who's switched from first option to 2nd, and look at what's happened. His last full year in Philly, he was averaging 27.6 points per game, on .543 TS, with 2.9 turnovers, and 6.2 assists, per 36 minutes. This year in Denver, he's at 23.3 points, .565 TS, 2.8 turnovers, and 5.9 assists.
Those are all recent, and I doubt anybody is saying that he's in any sort of steep decline. The only explanation for his poorer scoring, isn't that he's become worse, its that his role has changed.
At the root, I'm just disagreeing that the variations in per minute statistics for a player don't change. You say they're consistent. I'd call a change in points over say, 1.5, pretty significant. Its an arbitrary number, but its just to show that while the stats are in the same range, since they're not PER GAME numbers, they're much more descriptive of what a player contributes while he's in there. If you take out a player scoring 19 per 36, for a player scoring 15 per 36 (on similar efficiency), you are losing some offense, and need to compensate. Per game stats vary so much because of minutes, and when you adjust for minutes, improvements are much more nuanced.
A lot of players improve from year to year. Like Tyson Chandler, with his rebound rate. He came into the league at 14.4% of all rebounds, and is now over 20.
I think your overall point, that Outlaw's per minute numbers do not prove he could not have been better had he been given more minutes, is correct. But to say that he did not improve significantly is untrue. His rebound rate is up considerably. His scoring rate is up considerably. He's a better FT shooter, and a slightly better 3pt shooter, not to mention the improvements in his perimeter jumper (I actually noticed a lot of improvement LAST year in that), his Ast/To ratio, his decreased Personal Fouls, and his positional defense. Not that this was your point, but you marginalize his improvements by claiming his numbers were consistent.
Now of course, whether that's up to natural development, or practice, or his playing time, no one can answer.
