coldfish wrote:dougthonus wrote:coldfish wrote:Nocioni was drastically overrated because people didn't understand the negative impact of his poor understanding of team concepts. I brought this up at the time and was pilloried for it, only for people to later agree with me once it became more apparent.
Later on, when and if Mirotic does figure out how to play in the NBA, he will get more minutes. When he does, things will go well. Instead of understanding the mechanics of what is going on and lauding the long term path, people will take the simple / no analysis route of saying "look, he plays more and things are going well. He should have played more earlier."
I don't get the comparison. Nocioni was a quality rotation player for a long time. It's not to say he didn't have his weaknesses, but he was a good player for a long time for Chicago. Mirotic is experiencing typical problems that ALL rookies have and needs to work through them.
He will do that by playing more (like all young players), and in the mean time, he's still a very big net positive for the team however you want to spin it.
There are guys who hurt you in some ways, but their strengths make up for their weaknesses, Mirotic is already such a guy if his minutes are in the 20-25 per game range.
Nocioni was a fantastically overrated player and I noted his issues well before it became apparent to other people. That's why this was brought up. Mirotic is also a fantastically overrated player.You missed the point. Advanced stats are partially context based in a situation like Mirotic's. I know no one is suggesting that Mirotic replace Noah. That was a mental exercise to show what would actually happen. If his situation changed, his advanced stats would get much, much worse and the players people are complaining about would get better. That's why the advanced stats have little value in predicting his team contribution in a larger role.
And you missed the point, what would actually happen is that his PER probably wouldn't fall, and that it would likely provide spacing for the starters that they desperately need. It would also likely hurt Brooks who would then feel a bigger impact of having no other shooters around him and people would sit on his jumper on the perimeter because there'd be more help down low.
Maybe his advanced stats wouldn't pro-rate upwards in an expanded role, but Snell's and Hinrich's certainly aren't improved by playing less. These guys suck either way. I'd say there's a pretty good chance many of his stats would stay very steady in a greater role.
If you put Mirotic next to Gasol for an extended period of time and allow other coaches to game plan for it, the Bulls would get murdered on defense. I couldn't imagine how laughably bad a Mirotic / Rose pick and roll defense with Gasol backing them up would be.
This would seriously damage all of the offense / defense rating and adjusted +/- stuff that is bandied about in support of Mirotic.
This is why the advanced stats being used in regards to Mirotic need context.No, that is inaccurate. He is being given minutes based on match ups. I'll give an example of how Thibs is helping Mirotic. Remember when the team had multiple injuries to big men? Thibs actually started Cameron Bairstow. Why would he do this? Well, he was throwing Bairstow to the wolves knowing that he and the players around him were going to struggle. Mirotic then got to come off the bench and get his groove going versus tired starters or bench players.
Explain to me how Mirotic playing 8 minutes a night with Brooks, Snell, McDermott, and Gibson was setting him up for success and I will agree with you. However, that was Thibodeau's plan up until the point injuries struck, and the plan looks really, really stupid on paper and was a complete failure in reality.
Yes, I'll agree Thibodeau will try to use guys in match up situations that benefit them to an extent as well with everyone, but he certainly isn't doing so at the expense of anyone else to save Mirotic. He's put Mirotic out there with some god awful lineups where his chances of success were terrible.
The intent was to play Mirotic against back ups. This has more positive impacts than people here seem to realize. Not only do you play against back ups but opposing teams don't really put much in their game plan to attack Mirotic (or the other youngsters) in that role.
If you recall, Mirotic had rather good numbers in that unit. So did Brooks and Gibson. The failure of that unit as a group was the result of Snell and McDermott being completely unable to play NBA level basketball.
Since that time, Thibodeau salted in more vets into that group and its doing well.
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Can anyone tell me how to find player pair information on basketball-reference? I would like to know how many minutes each big has spent with each other.
The most used lineups (2-man, 3-man, 4-man, and 5-man units) are here: http://www.basketball-reference.com/tea ... 5/lineups/
This doesn't have all the lineups, so if you want a particular player's most used 2-man units, for example, you can look at that player's page and find the lineups link for that player.
Pau: http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... eups/2015/
Noah: http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... eups/2015/
Taj: http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... eups/2015/
Mirotic: http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... eups/2015/
Pau/Noah has played 734 minutes, net +2.1 per 100 possessions.
Pau/Taj: 551 minutes, +6.2
Pau/Mirotic: 292 minutes, +0.8
Noah/Taj: 213 minutes, -11.8
Noah/Mirotic: 222 minutes, +8.9
Taj/Mirotic: 401 minutes, +6.5
