The Lineups/Combos Thread

Jimako10 · Post #1 » by **Jimako10** » Sat Feb 14, 2015 5:15 pm

Thread title says it all. Let’s look at some lineups and combos now we have some decent sample size for the season. We know Thibs looks at these and he often cites them when talking about an individual’s performance. Keep in mind, the team net differential per 100 for the season is +3.1.

The most used lineups
Rose/Butler/Dunleavy/Gasol/Noah 282 min, +5.1
Rose/Hinrich/Butler/Gibson/Gasol 130 min, +7.5
Rose/Hinrich/Butler/Gasol/Noah 124 min, -7.5
Hinrich/Butler/Dunleavy/Gasol/Noah 118 min, -6.5
Rose/Butler/Snell/Gasol/Noah 115 min, +10.8
Rose/Butler/Dunleavy/Gibson/Gasol 95 min, +0.5

-These 6 lineups account for roughly a third of the total minutes played for the season, the rest are around 50 minutes and lower. As we see here, Snell is making a case to start over Dunleavy, while both should be starting over Hinrich if you look at the difference when you replace Hinrich in the same lineup with either Dunleavy/Snell.

Potential closing lineup
Brooks/Rose/Butler/Gasol/Noah 54 min, +33.0

-Should this be the closing lineup? So far, this lineup has worked pretty well in its very limited time. We need to see some more PT with it to get a better read, but it definitely has an interesting dynamic/balance to it. We see what happens when you replace Brooks with Hinrich, and it’s not pretty.

4 man combos with at least 250 minutes played together
Rose/Butler/Gasol/Noah 600 min, +6.4
Rose/Dunleavy/Gasol/Noah 324 min, +5.6
Rose/Butler/Dunleavy/Noah 290 min, +4.8
Rose/Butler/Gibson/Gasol 307 min, +4.0
Rose/Butler/Dunleavy/Gasol 402 min, +2.4
Butler/Dunleavy/Gasol/Noah 409 min, +1.1
Rose/Hinrich/Butler/Gasol 274 min, -0.2
Hinrich/Butler/Gasol/Noah 274 min, -4.0

Unsurprisingly, the big 4 of Rose/Butler/Gasol/Noah is the also the best lineup. Hinrich once again not looking to great, big shocker.

The PF/C combos
Gasol/Noah 866 min, +4.4
Gibson/Gasol 637 min, +6.1
Mirotic/Gibson 442 min, +2.5
Mirotic/Gasol 313 min, -2.9
Gibson/Noah 267 min, -14.6
Mirotic/Noah 246 min, +2.7

What the hell is going on here? For years the Gibson/Noah tandem produced insane +/- numbers, but that’s clearly not the case this year. Also noteworthy, the all defense and all offense tandems (Noah/Taj and Miro/Gasol) are the only 2 in the negatives, maybe being balanced is always the way to go. It could also be the reason why Gasol plays entire quarters, as the alternate of going to Noah/Taj first isn’t a great option this year. Also, the Gasol/Noah tandem isn’t as bad as people are claiming, as it’s the 2nd best tandem after Gasol/Gibson.

I can browse the lineups/combos on bball reference all day, so I’m wondering what others can pluck out of there that are of interest. Also, you may not want to look at the Cleveland new starting lineup of Kyrie, JR, Lebron, Love, Mozgov, it might make you throw up a little.

kodo · Post #2 » by **kodo** » Sat Feb 14, 2015 5:44 pm

Yep, bballbreakdown really emphasized in one if their vids how awful the Noah Gibson combo has been from a +/- standpoint.

Generally when Gasol leaves the floor we're a losing team.

Overall were not a defensive team anymore. We *have* to score to win this season, so our performance drops when Noah Taj play together. Not only are both poor scorers, they clog the paint making it difficult for rose to drive .

This year were a balanced team and need to perform on both ends of the floor to win. Noah Taj makes us pretty lopsided.
We've dropped down to being close to league average in defense (13th) while our offense just keeps slowly getting better (8th). Our respective offensive/defensive rankings most closely resembles Dallas, which nobody mistakes as a defensive team.

The strange reality is that the Bulls are now an offensive team, so taking all our offensive players out is now A Bad Thing.

dice · Post #3 » by **dice** » Sun Feb 15, 2015 12:57 am

kodo wrote:Yep, bballbreakdown really emphasized in one if their vids how awful the Noah Gibson combo has been from a +/- standpoint.

which is a bunch of crap because they've been hugely + in past years

267 minutes is an utterly useless sample size

JeremyB0001 · Post #4 » by **JeremyB0001** » Sun Feb 15, 2015 4:05 pm

What numbers do we think Thibs is looking at? Because he likes to use the on/off numbers to preach Kirk's value, which seems almost impossible to do.

vvgotgame19 · Post #5 » by **vvgotgame19** » Sun Feb 15, 2015 4:09 pm

dice wrote:
kodo wrote:Yep, bballbreakdown really emphasized in one if their vids how awful the Noah Gibson combo has been from a +/- standpoint.

which is a bunch of crap because they've been hugely + in past years

267 minutes is an utterly useless sample size

And 1

Not playing them together is what hurts the defense most IMO. When healthy and engaged like last year, they made the defense what it was. The fact that they are the second least used lineup this year is criminal IMO.

vvgotgame19 · Post #6 » by **vvgotgame19** » Sun Feb 15, 2015 4:21 pm

JeremyB0001 wrote:What numbers do we think Thibs is looking at? Because he likes to use the on/off numbers to preach Kirk's value, which seems almost impossible to do.

Rose/Hinrich/Butler/Gibson/Gasol 130 min, +7.5

Still... :wavefinger:

Stratmaster · Post #7 » by **Stratmaster** » Fri Feb 20, 2015 2:48 am

This may shock some who I have gotten into stat debates with but i do believe 5 man combo stats are meaningful. However they do not indicate who should start. Context is required. You cannot assume the same results if you simply start the 5 who have the best plus minus. Part of why they have those results may be because of when they played. The game is all about matchup and I will trust thibs to make those choices

Post #8 » by **Rerisen** » Fri Feb 20, 2015 3:34 am

dice wrote:
kodo wrote:Yep, bballbreakdown really emphasized in one if their vids how awful the Noah Gibson combo has been from a +/- standpoint.

which is a bunch of crap because they've been hugely + in past years

267 minutes is an utterly useless sample size

They also accrued a lot of minutes early on that West road trip when Pau and some games Rose were out at the same time. So we got pasted in a couple of those and put their +/- in a huge hole.

Of course Noah stunk extra bad early in the year too.

I expect this would correct given more time. When we get to the end of the year would be interesting to look at the splits post All-Star.

Post #9 » by **Rerisen** » Fri Feb 20, 2015 3:36 am

JeremyB0001 wrote:What numbers do we think Thibs is looking at? Because he likes to use the on/off numbers to preach Kirk's value, which seems almost impossible to do.

Kirk's were pretty decent up till about a couple weeks ago.

But at this point Thibs just sounds defensive about it, quoting these inane records when he plays X minutes and not realizing I guess all the splits where the team is better without him or in limited minutes.

Mobby · Post #10 » by **Mobby** » Fri Feb 20, 2015 3:53 pm

I also posted recently that we use a two-PG lineup (two of Rose/Hinrich/Brooks/Moore) about 45% of the time. Wish we had a more competent second PG, but from these stats, it looks like a Brooks/Rose combo is actually quite good when leaving in the other "big 3."

Hope we can still acquire Gary Neal though. I think it would help our abilities. I like our chances on rolling with McD and Snell on the wings.