The Death of the Bull's Jumbo Lineup

[Stratmaster]

Well, I didn't intend to start another Niko vs. Taj vs. Noah discussion... but it is expected under the circumstances. Last nights game just continued the trend of Niko looking like an all-star at the 4, while previous games continue to reinforce that the 3 is not a good spot for him, at least not in any volume.

I thought Noah was getting healthy after he sat out a few games. But he quickly declined even with the minutes restriction, proving me wrong. It is obvious he just isn't healthy enough to be an impact player. As much as I hate to say it and see it, through no fault of his own Noah needs to come off the bench in the playoffs. If Thibs just can't send that "insult" Noah's way, then start him for about 3-4 minutes and then sub. However, that still puts the onus on Thibs to flip his usage of Niko and Taj; meaning giving Niko the 30 minutes and Taj the 18 minutes.

[Rerisen]

Well, I didn't intend to start another Niko vs. Taj vs. Noah discussion... but it is expected under the circumstances. Last nights game just continued the trend of Niko looking like an all-star at the 4, while previous games continue to reinforce that the 3 is not a good spot for him, at least not in any volume.

The issues aren't related.

[Stratmaster]

Well, I didn't intend to start another Niko vs. Taj vs. Noah discussion... but it is expected under the circumstances. Last nights game just continued the trend of Niko looking like an all-star at the 4, while previous games continue to reinforce that the 3 is not a good spot for him, at least not in any volume.

The issues aren't related.

How so?

[Rerisen]

How so?

Niko excels at PF. This is obvious to all. But that has nothing to do with whether he should be played in the jumbo lineups, because there are no realistic scenarios that Niko can ever play enough PF minutes here to negate his chance to get additional minutes at SF.

They are two separate issues. The first is just how many minutes he should get at PF, most want that maximized, but comes at the expense of other quality bigs. But no matter how much it gets maximized, there is a cap on it, probably around 20 minutes a night or so, due to the realities of the roster.

That leaves 28 more minutes of the game where Niko can or not, also be used at SF. Which is a separate topic.

I can only speak for myself, but for me saying to play Niko at SF is for the purpose of getting him on the floor *more* not less, not at the expense of, or instead of, playing at PF.

[Stratmaster]

How so?

Niko excels at PF. This is obvious to all. But that has nothing to do with whether he should be played in the jumbo lineups, because there are no realistic scenarios that Niko can ever play enough PF minutes here to negate his chance to get additional minutes at SF.

They are two separate issues. The first is just how many minutes he should get at PF, most want that maximized, but comes at the expense of other quality bigs. But no matter how much it gets maximized, there is a cap on it, probably around 20 minutes a night or so, due to the realities of the roster.

That leaves 28 more minutes of the game where Niko can or not, also be used at SF. Which is a separate topic.

I can only speak for myself, but for me saying to play Niko at SF is for the purpose of getting him on the floor *more* not less, not at the expense of, or instead of, playing at PF.

I understand that. But for me, it seems apparent that the Bulls are not effective with Niko at the 3 and 3 bigs in the lineup. Generally speaking, other than in outlier matchup situations, they are a better team without the jumbo lineup. I am a big Niko fan. I want to see him playing 30 mpg. But I would rather he play 20 at PF than 20 at SF and 8 or 10 at PF.

Playing Niko at the 3 just to get him minutes, when he doesn't play effectively there, and when the Bulls are unsuccesful with him there, is no different than playing Hinrich at SG where he is ineffective, or insisting on continuing to play Noah 30 minutes even though he is a shell of himself healthwise.

BTW, thank for not rubbing in that you were right about Noah's health and I was wrong

[Rerisen]

I understand that. But for me, it seems apparent that the Bulls are not effective with Niko at the 3 and 3 bigs in the lineup. Generally speaking, other than in outlier matchup situations, they are a better team without the jumbo lineup. I am a big Niko fan. I want to see him playing 30 mpg. But I would rather he play 20 at PF than 20 at SF and 8 or 10 at PF.

So would I, but don't really see how its going to be possible. And I'm not happy if his total minutes every game is like 12 or 14 in the playoffs because he isn't playing SF anymore.

Anyhow, its entirely fair position to want Niko only at PF, big minutes, and no minutes at SF.

I just wanted to be clear that me wanting him in the jumbo, isn't saying instead of PF. People keep blaring how much better at PF he is, but it doesn't negate the question of this lineup.

Playing Niko at the 3 just to get him minutes, when he doesn't play effectively there, and when the Bulls are unsuccesful with him there, is no different than playing Hinrich at SG where he is ineffective, or insisting on continuing to play Noah 30 minutes even though he is a shell of himself healthwise.

The difference is Kirk should be thinking about retirement and has no upside or talent there. Niko does have innate talent and great players frequently excel at more than one position. So while he's struggled there so far, he's still just a rookie, he's learning and getting better all the time. When the alternative are so pedestrian, MDJ, a guy starting who should be a 20-25 bench player and Snell, a guy who outside one month, has often looked dubious should even be in a rotation, I think we have a lot more to gain with Niko than to lose there.

BTW, thank for not rubbing in that you were right about Noah's health and I was wrong

Noah's play is alarming me. Even I said he was improving, just slower than you did. There isn't much solace in trumpeting his backslide though, as if he doesn't turn it around for the playoffs, I think our hopes are slim and none.

[kingkirk]

Does a reduction in minutes impact his performance or does his on-court performance causes a drop in his minutes?

I have seen enough of both phenomenon to lay the blame on Tony as much as on Thibs,

In this scenario, Snell went from starting in place of Butler/Dunleavy to then going to the bench and being behind Hinrich in the depth chart once he returned.

From where i sit, his on court performance is being manipulated by Thibodeau. When Snell gets minutes and knows where he sits within the rotation, he plays well.

[Red Larrivee]

Does a reduction in minutes impact his performance or does his on-court performance causes a drop in his minutes?

I have seen enough of both phenomenon to lay the blame on Tony as much as on Thibs,

I disagree completely. Thibodeau hasn't shown much of a willingness to bench players depending on performance during the season. Otherwise, Hinrich would've been out the rotation a long, long time ago. Does Snell have his flaws? Absolutely, but it's hard for any player to be consistent when their role and playing time is the opposite.

[JeremyB0001]

The Rose / Butler / Dunleavey / Gibson / Gasol lineup is killing teams. If you want to use lineup production to justify rotations, Mirotic's minutes go down, not up.

I think that you must realize that teams can have more than one good lineup and play multiple lineups each game. The fact that Mirotic is not in the lineup that you personally consider to be best does not in any way refute the position that he's the four in some of the Bulls very best lineups and that those lineups should see substantial playing time.

I also just have to point out that in the Philly game:
- The jumbo lineup played only a few minutes together and did not play well.
- Thibs didn't use it again in the second half
- Niko got a huge amount of time at the 4 next to Noah in the second half. That again makes sense. Noah gets to be the ball handler with the scrub PG's and Niko gets to be the isolation scorer.
- Thibs closed with the logical best lineup, which was a well rested Rose / Butler / Dunleavey / Gibson / Gasol

This is inaccruate and highly misleading.

The jumbo lineup played 5.5 minutes in the first half of that game. You're corrected that it struggled, getting outscored by 12 points. This should not have come as a shock to Thibs as the jumbo lineup doesn't have a great track record and it's rather counterintuitive to play a rookie out of position.

Thibs absolutely went to the jumbo lineup again in the second half. At the 2:03 mark of the third quarter, Thibs subbed in Niko for Dunleavy, leaving a lineup of Brooks-Jimmy-Niko-Gibson-Taj. He was apparently determined to stick with the jumbo lineup despite its huge first-half struggles. At this point, it appeared close to certain that Thibs would continue the recent trend of playing Niko exclusively at small forward and diminishing his role further with each game - in the previous game, Niko had played under 20 minutes for the first time in six weeks, and he figured to finish the 76ers game with 12 or 14 minutes.

Then something notable happened: At the 43-second mark of the third quarter, Taj picked up his fifth foul. Thibs immediately yanked Taj, just four minutes after he had entered the game. Mirotic shifted from the three to the four. There is no way to spin this as Thibs suddenly having some sort of epiphany about lineup construction. It's clear that he felt he had to pull Taj due to foul trouble and Niko was the only feasible replacement for Taj.

Niko played well when he finally got minutes at the four and the lineup went on a run until the 76ers hit back-to-back threes and Thibs pulled Niko for Pau. Niko ended up with eight minutes at the four that game. I would not call that a "huge" amount of time at the four when Taj, who's arguably the less valuable player, has recently been logging close to 30 minutes per game at the four.

[Stratmaster]

I understand that. But for me, it seems apparent that the Bulls are not effective with Niko at the 3 and 3 bigs in the lineup. Generally speaking, other than in outlier matchup situations, they are a better team without the jumbo lineup. I am a big Niko fan. I want to see him playing 30 mpg. But I would rather he play 20 at PF than 20 at SF and 8 or 10 at PF.

So would I, but don't really see how its going to be possible. And I'm not happy if his total minutes every game is like 12 or 14 in the playoffs because he isn't playing SF anymore.

Anyhow, its entirely fair position to want Niko only at PF, big minutes, and no minutes at SF.

I just wanted to be clear that me wanting him in the jumbo, isn't saying instead of PF. People keep blaring how much better at PF he is, but it doesn't negate the question of this lineup.

Playing Niko at the 3 just to get him minutes, when he doesn't play effectively there, and when the Bulls are unsuccesful with him there, is no different than playing Hinrich at SG where he is ineffective, or insisting on continuing to play Noah 30 minutes even though he is a shell of himself healthwise.

The difference is Kirk should be thinking about retirement and has no upside or talent there. Niko does have innate talent and great players frequently excel at more than one position. So while he's struggled there so far, he's still just a rookie, he's learning and getting better all the time. When the alternative are so pedestrian, MDJ, a guy starting who should be a 20-25 bench player and Snell, a guy who outside one month, has often looked dubious should even be in a rotation, I think we have a lot more to gain with Niko than to lose there.

BTW, thank for not rubbing in that you were right about Noah's health and I was wrong

Noah's play is alarming me. Even I said he was improving, just slower than you did. There isn't much solace in trumpeting his backslide though, as if he doesn't turn it around for the playoffs, I think our hopes are slim and none.

Your point is well taken about Niko's upside. However; I don't think the lineup is a good idea regardless of who the 3rd big is playing at the 3. It isn't a question of Niko in my mind. It is a question of whether 3 guys that size can keep up with most of today's smaller, more athletic players and the faster paced offenses which have taken over the game.

[85Bears]

It was Riley 20 years ago talking about the Bulls. We would play a crunch time lineup of
Harper
Jordan
Pippen
Kukoc
Rodman

All ball handlers, can guard the peremiter, Rebound advantage at 4 positions, good shooting balance

Unreal. No PG and no C and we would destroy teams.

The best lineup for that type of team, the current bulls would have to roll out
Rose
Butler
Snell
Niko
Noah

[McBulls]

It was Riley 20 years ago talking about the Bulls. We would play a crunch time lineup of
Harper
Jordan
Pippen
Kukoc
Rodman

All ball handlers, can guard the peremiter, Rebound advantage at 4 positions, good shooting balance

Unreal. No PG and no C and we would destroy teams.

The best lineup for that type of team, the current bulls would have to roll out
Rose
Butler
Snell
Niko
Noah

The nice thing about that line up ( and I wouldn't rule out Doug as possibly a better SF than Snell) is that it could be intact for 5 years or so if Noah recovers (which I think he will).

McDermott has really been shafted by Thibs. He never really got a chance to play his rookie season (same for Snell, Asik, Butler, and other young players coached by Thibs). My bet is that he is a pretty good SF if he is ever given the chance to show it. I'm sure Mr Tough Love's replacement will give him a shot.

The jumbo lineup reflects a "wear out the veteran" obsessive style of coaching more than anything else. The alternative to its use in the playoffs is to have Nico watch the game from the end of the bench -- which is where Thibs really wants him. The thinking is that if Niko is sucking minutes from McDermott and Snell, that's OK, but not from a player who's been in the league for more than two years.