Image ImageImage Image

Coronavirus

Moderators: HomoSapien, dougthonus, kulaz3000, fleet, RedBulls23, Ice Man, Tommy Udo 6 , AshyLarrysDiaper, Payt10, GimmeDat, DASMACKDOWN

User avatar
coldfish
Forum Mod
Forum Mod
Posts: 48,530
And1: 17,688
Joined: Jun 11, 2004
Location: Right in the middle
 

Re: Coronavirus 

Post#1521 » by coldfish » Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:26 pm

whonka wrote:
coldfish wrote:
jnrjr79 wrote:

I'm no doctor,


Said no one on the Bulls board ever

jnrjr79 wrote:but my firm belief is hundreds of thousands or millions of people in the US are infected. It's such a crazy virus. Some people get it and never know it - others suffer and die. And it's seriously affecting younger people more often than was initially thought. But until we test everyone (1) for the virus, and (2) for antibodies, we're never really going to know.


There are little tidbits of information out there that indicate widespread infection:
- Studies on the virus itself showing that it has gone through hundreds of thousands or millions of people over a month ago.
- The sheer implausibility that China only let 75,000 people get infected in a city of 11 million while letting the virus run rampant for almost two months.
- The anecdotal stories of parties where everyone gets infected showing incredibly rapid movement.
- The anecdotal celebrity stories. NBA players. Etc. Basically, famous people who got infected and were able to get tested. Virtually all of them show little to no symptoms. We were told that 20% of the cases are severe. If so, why aren't 20% of the celebrities in hospitals right now? It seriously looks like its more like 2% of cases become severe.



I posted this yesterday. I'm certainly no epidemiologist or statistician, but I heavily, HEAVILY disagree with this article. Most particularly with the parts that are saying that millions of people already have it, and that the virus probably already made a round in January and February.

That just does not jive with reality. Even if you assume many cases went undiagnosed, those of us that work in a hospital can physically see what percentage of patients are coming into our hospitals, ICU's, with ARDS. In January, and February, and even early March, it felt approximately at baseline with the severity/volume of ARDS that the hospital seemed to be receiving. It's only right now, the past 2 weeks, and ESPECIALLY this week, that we feel overwhelmed. Hospitals are being shut down in terms of elective clinic visits/procedures and entire units usually used for other purposes are being turned into COVID units, the caseload of regular hospital admissions, cardiology/general medicine admissions, etc, are WAY down. We're converting general floor units into ICUs. This just did not happen a while ago and matches the rising case numbers currently. Ongoing infection is happening NOW, not last month.

I cite again the news article from Craig Spencer from Columbia.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/25/health/coronavirus-covid-hospitals/index.html

"The reality is that what we're seeing right now in our emergency rooms is dire," said Dr. Craig Spencer, director of global health in emergency medicine at NewYork-Presbyterian/Columbia University Medical Center in New York City.

"Last week when I went to work, we talked about the one or two patients amongst the dozens of others that might have been a Covid or coronavirus patient," Spencer told CNN's Anderson Cooper Tuesday. "In my shift yesterday, nearly every single patient that I took care of was coronavirus, and many of them extremely severe. Many were put on breathing tubes. Many decompensated quite quickly.


Those models from those articles just don't match the reality/temporal course of what we're seeing right now.

And yes, people keep bringing up the mild cases going undiagnosed which means the true fatality rate is probably lower b/c the denominator is larger. While that is true, please don't forget, when you're in a strained hospital system, the numerator is also larger. Many people die before they even get tested or go unreported.

https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/nidhiprakash/coronavirus-update-dead-covid19-doctors-hospitals


I think that's a good counter for the idea that the virus did a round in January. I think that's extraordinarily unlikely.

That said, your information doesn't really cover the current spread. How many infections are needed to generate a hospital visit and when? Does 5 infections 2 weeks ago get one hospital incoming today? Is it 10 from 3 weeks ago? 50? The rule of thumb we were told was that you would get one hospital visit for ever 5 cases. IMO, the number is much larger than that but its only based on strings of partial information.

One of two things is true:
- This is a slow spreading virus that most people don't even catch which causes severe problems in 20% of the cases as reported
- This is a rapidly spreading virus that causes severe problems in a small percentage of the cases

Italy is the worst hit nation and its been going on for a while. As of right now, they are reporting 0.13% of the population caught it and 0.013% died. Even if there are a massive number of unreported deaths, that is a small, small sliver of the population.

In Hubei province, it went unchecked for 2 months and they are reporting 0.1% of the population caught the virus. One out of 1000. That's an astoundingly low percentage. H1N1 infected roughly 60 million americans or 20% in that same time frame. Based on anecdotal data, this should actually spread faster than H1N1.
User avatar
Jcool0
General Manager
Posts: 8,361
And1: 4,915
Joined: Jul 12, 2014
Location: Illinois
         

Re: Coronavirus 

Post#1522 » by Jcool0 » Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:28 pm

Image
MalagaBulls
Veteran
Posts: 2,630
And1: 784
Joined: Dec 15, 2013
Location: Malaga, Spain (Where the Sun Shines)
       

Re: Coronavirus 

Post#1523 » by MalagaBulls » Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:51 pm

WOW, the US now officially has the most recorded infections in the world!! Hunker down peeps & stay safe!!
User avatar
Kurt Heimlich
Assistant Coach
Posts: 4,411
And1: 3,238
Joined: Jun 26, 2001

Re: Coronavirus 

Post#1524 » by Kurt Heimlich » Thu Mar 26, 2020 9:14 pm

MalagaBulls wrote:WOW, the US now officially has the most recorded infections in the world!! Hunker down peeps & stay safe!!


I don't think the recorded infections stat is particularly valuable as a comparison tool for a number of reasons. But stay safe as well Malaga.
MalagaBulls
Veteran
Posts: 2,630
And1: 784
Joined: Dec 15, 2013
Location: Malaga, Spain (Where the Sun Shines)
       

Re: Coronavirus 

Post#1525 » by MalagaBulls » Thu Mar 26, 2020 9:17 pm

Kurt Heimlich wrote:
MalagaBulls wrote:WOW, the US now officially has the most recorded infections in the world!! Hunker down peeps & stay safe!!


I don't think the recorded infections stat is particularly valuable as a comparison tool for a number of reasons. But stay safe as well Malaga.
It isn't because the vast majority of infections are mild. But the virus is extremely contagious, I think we all agree on that.
User avatar
Kurt Heimlich
Assistant Coach
Posts: 4,411
And1: 3,238
Joined: Jun 26, 2001

Re: Coronavirus 

Post#1526 » by Kurt Heimlich » Thu Mar 26, 2020 9:25 pm

MalagaBulls wrote:
Kurt Heimlich wrote:
MalagaBulls wrote:WOW, the US now officially has the most recorded infections in the world!! Hunker down peeps & stay safe!!


I don't think the recorded infections stat is particularly valuable as a comparison tool for a number of reasons. But stay safe as well Malaga.
It isn't because the vast majority of infections are mild. But the virus is extremely contagious, I think we all agree on that.


Agreed, significantly more contagious than the flu (largely in part due to the lack of vaccination) and thus flooding hospital systems in areas further exacerbating the situation.

But the recorded infections stats aren't a great representation of actual infection spread, or mortality rate by any means. As testing is still ramping up so too obviously will recorded infections. That doesn't change what's actually happening to people in real time. And then you have communist controlled countries like China reporting, IMO, highly questionable data throughout this entire pandemic. Maybe they have no more cases, hopefully they do, but color me skeptical.

Hospital beds taken up/available and death totals are the significantly more representative statistics at the moment. All that said, it's still going to get worse before it gets better still.
User avatar
jc23
RealGM
Posts: 21,062
And1: 6,837
Joined: May 31, 2010
Location: 1901 W.Madsion St
     

Re: Coronavirus 

Post#1527 » by jc23 » Thu Mar 26, 2020 9:58 pm

"showing off is the fools idea of glory" - Bruce Lee
dice
RealGM
Posts: 35,368
And1: 9,137
Joined: Jun 30, 2003
Location: chicago

Re: Coronavirus 

Post#1528 » by dice » Thu Mar 26, 2020 10:12 pm

Jcool0 wrote:Image

there was a story today on TV where they showed a clip of people on the trails in yesterday's warm weather, by themselves and minding their own business out getting some exercise, juxtaposed with video from today of congregated cops policing the trails, themselves clearly not following social distancing guidelines

the people out playing team soccer and basketball yesterday deserve some form of public humiliation
at the height of WWII, 20% of the entire male US population was active duty military. at the height of the vietnam war it was 3%
User avatar
dumbell78
General Manager
Posts: 8,571
And1: 4,933
Joined: Apr 03, 2012
Location: Sydney, Aus. by way of Muddy Water land (Chicago)
       

Re: Coronavirus 

Post#1529 » by dumbell78 » Thu Mar 26, 2020 10:18 pm

dice wrote:
the people out playing team soccer and basketball yesterday deserve some form of public flogging
KC: Do you still think you're a championship-caliber team?
Gar: I never said that and correct me if I'm wrong.
KC: You were asked that question at the news conference announcing Thibodeau's dismissal and you answered yes
User avatar
AKfanatic
RealGM
Posts: 11,558
And1: 9,178
Joined: May 20, 2001
     

Re: Coronavirus 

Post#1530 » by AKfanatic » Thu Mar 26, 2020 10:25 pm

You don’t say....
The federal government’s planned $2 trillion economic rescue package includes financial aid for individuals and industries that are struggling to survive the coronavirus pandemic.

It also includes a potential bonanza for America’s richest real estate investors.

Senate Republicans inserted an easy-to-overlook provision on page 203 of the 880-page bill that would permit wealthy investors to use losses generated by real estate to minimize their taxes on profits from things like investments in the stock market. The estimated cost of the change over 10 years is $170 billion.

Under the existing tax code, when real estate investors generate losses from gradually writing down the value of their properties, a process known as depreciation, they can use some of those losses to offset other taxes. The result is that people can enjoy big tax breaks stemming from only-on-paper losses, even if they enjoy big cash profits in the real world.

But the use of those losses was limited by the 2017 tax-cut package. The losses could be used only to shelter the first $500,000 of a married couple’s nonbusiness income, such as capital gains from investments. Any leftover losses got rolled over to future years.
The new stimulus bill lifts that restriction for three years — this year, and two retroactive years — a boon for couples with more than $500,000 in annual capital gains or income from sources other than their business. That group comprises the top 1 percent of taxpayers, according to Internal Revenue Service data


https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/26/business/coronavirus-real-estate-investors-stimulus.html#click=https://t.co/8A7hiWUjpL
Fairview4Life
RealGM
Posts: 52,087
And1: 16,237
Joined: Jul 25, 2005
     

Re: Coronavirus 

Post#1531 » by Fairview4Life » Thu Mar 26, 2020 10:30 pm

jc23 wrote:https://www.dailywire.com/news/epidemiologist-behind-highly-cited-coronavirus-model-admits-he-was-wrong-drastically-revises-model/


Read on Twitter


Read on Twitter
9. Similarly, IF THOU HAST SPENT the entire offseason predicting that thy team will stink, thou shalt not gloat, nor even be happy, shouldst thou turn out to be correct. Realistic analysis is fine, but be a fan first, a smug smarty-pants second.
User avatar
AKfanatic
RealGM
Posts: 11,558
And1: 9,178
Joined: May 20, 2001
     

Re: Coronavirus 

Post#1532 » by AKfanatic » Thu Mar 26, 2020 10:38 pm

In today’s briefing, the current administration claims “nobody could've seen a pandemic coming” attempts to shift blame to Obama for his lack of preparation....

The Obama administration handed off a playbook, literally named “Playbook for early response to high-consequence emerging infectious disease threats and biological incidents.” to the Trump administration which was scrapped and ignored...

a playbook that specifically pointed out to viruses originating in China and had recommendations on the need for the equipment our health professionals would need.



But “nobody could see this coming”..
Dresden
Head Coach
Posts: 6,019
And1: 2,919
Joined: Nov 02, 2017
       

Re: Coronavirus 

Post#1533 » by Dresden » Thu Mar 26, 2020 10:49 pm

jnrjr79 wrote:
Dresden wrote:I read that 100 hospital staff in Boston so far have tested positive- at this rate, there won't be anyone left to treat the sick.



What's probably going to happen is that lots of healthcare workers are going to get infected, some will die, and those that don't will be able to continue on with their work having immunity (at least in the short-term) to the virus. We won't run out of healthcare workers, but many will miss work and very tragically some will not recover from the illness.

Honestly, people who have contracted the virus and recovered will probably become vital in all sorts of essential industries.


It all depends on the rates of infection. How quickly will hospital staff become infected? It requires a 14 day quarantine I believe once you are infected. How many staff can a hospital lose before they have trouble functioning?
Dresden
Head Coach
Posts: 6,019
And1: 2,919
Joined: Nov 02, 2017
       

Re: Coronavirus 

Post#1534 » by Dresden » Thu Mar 26, 2020 10:51 pm

AKfanatic wrote:In today’s briefing, the current administration claims “nobody could've seen a pandemic coming” attempts to shift blame to Obama for his lack of preparation....

The Obama administration handed off a playbook, literally named “Playbook for early response to high-consequence emerging infectious disease threats and biological incidents.” to the Trump administration which was scrapped and ignored...

a playbook that specifically pointed out to viruses originating in China and had recommendations on the need for the equipment our health professionals would need.



But “nobody could see this coming”..


Very similar to 9-11, even though the FBI had been warning Condolezza Rice's office about the possibility of terrorists using a passenger plane as a weapon, and reports of pilots in training schools who only seemed interested in making high speed, low altitude turns.
User avatar
AKfanatic
RealGM
Posts: 11,558
And1: 9,178
Joined: May 20, 2001
     

Re: Coronavirus 

Post#1535 » by AKfanatic » Thu Mar 26, 2020 10:54 pm

Dresden wrote:
AKfanatic wrote:In today’s briefing, the current administration claims “nobody could've seen a pandemic coming” attempts to shift blame to Obama for his lack of preparation....

The Obama administration handed off a playbook, literally named “Playbook for early response to high-consequence emerging infectious disease threats and biological incidents.” to the Trump administration which was scrapped and ignored...

a playbook that specifically pointed out to viruses originating in China and had recommendations on the need for the equipment our health professionals would need.



But “nobody could see this coming”..


Very similar to 9-11, even though the FBI had been warning Condolezza Rice's office about the possibility of terrorists using a passenger plane as a weapon, and reports of pilots in training schools who only seemed interested in making high speed, low altitude turns.


Yep, nobody could have seen that coming even though Terrorists had hijacked a plane with the intention of flying into a building in Paris...

Even though Feds were saying “uh these guys are learning to fly but have no interest in landing”....

Even though terrorists told us “next time, we bring them down” after bombing the WTS



It’s crazy how leaders consistently get away with a “nobody could’ve seen that coming” talking point so often...



Read on Twitter
dice
RealGM
Posts: 35,368
And1: 9,137
Joined: Jun 30, 2003
Location: chicago

Re: Coronavirus 

Post#1536 » by dice » Thu Mar 26, 2020 10:56 pm

dumbell78 wrote:
dice wrote:
the people out playing team soccer and basketball yesterday deserve some form of public flogging

i was gonna say tarred and feathered, but thought maybe that was a bit over the top
at the height of WWII, 20% of the entire male US population was active duty military. at the height of the vietnam war it was 3%
dice
RealGM
Posts: 35,368
And1: 9,137
Joined: Jun 30, 2003
Location: chicago

Re: Coronavirus 

Post#1537 » by dice » Thu Mar 26, 2020 10:59 pm

Dresden wrote:
AKfanatic wrote:In today’s briefing, the current administration claims “nobody could've seen a pandemic coming” attempts to shift blame to Obama for his lack of preparation....

The Obama administration handed off a playbook, literally named “Playbook for early response to high-consequence emerging infectious disease threats and biological incidents.” to the Trump administration which was scrapped and ignored...

a playbook that specifically pointed out to viruses originating in China and had recommendations on the need for the equipment our health professionals would need.



But “nobody could see this coming”..


Very similar to 9-11, even though the FBI had been warning Condolezza Rice's office about the possibility of terrorists using a passenger plane as a weapon, and reports of pilots in training schools who only seemed interested in making high speed, low altitude turns.

bill clinton specifically told george bush upon the transfer of power that his #1 priority should be osama bin laden. the bush family had a strong relationship w/ the bin laden family, however (compellingly laid out in the film 'fahrenheit 9/11'). when the towers fell, the bush admin. immediately had bin laden family members in the US flown out w/o questioning



at the height of WWII, 20% of the entire male US population was active duty military. at the height of the vietnam war it was 3%
User avatar
dumbell78
General Manager
Posts: 8,571
And1: 4,933
Joined: Apr 03, 2012
Location: Sydney, Aus. by way of Muddy Water land (Chicago)
       

Re: Coronavirus 

Post#1538 » by dumbell78 » Thu Mar 26, 2020 11:09 pm

Some good news from Sydney, per the actual testing and numbers done (keep that in mind).

186 new cases in NSW, total now is 1405 confirmed in our state.
2nd consecutive day the number of new cases has gone down.

Stay home, it works!

Of the 1405 cases, 877 were acquired overseas. Yes, on behave of all NSW residents thank you for unleashing the cruise liners and number of infected travelers onto us. :banghead: :banghead:
KC: Do you still think you're a championship-caliber team?
Gar: I never said that and correct me if I'm wrong.
KC: You were asked that question at the news conference announcing Thibodeau's dismissal and you answered yes
dice
RealGM
Posts: 35,368
And1: 9,137
Joined: Jun 30, 2003
Location: chicago

Re: Coronavirus 

Post#1539 » by dice » Thu Mar 26, 2020 11:12 pm

Fairview4Life wrote:
jc23 wrote:https://www.dailywire.com/news/epidemiologist-behind-highly-cited-coronavirus-model-admits-he-was-wrong-drastically-revises-model/


Read on Twitter


Read on Twitter

i was going to mention that daily wire is a right wing organization that is known for climate change denial, but refrained because their reporting here looked legit. the power of propaganda...

from wiki:

According to Snopes, "DailyWire.com has a tendency to share stories that are taken out of context or not verified", including reports on protesters digging up Confederate graves, Democratic congresspeople refusing to stand for a fallen Navy SEAL's widow, and Harvard University holding segregated commencement ceremonies.[16] According to FactCheck.org, The Daily Wire incorrectly credited Housing and Urban Development Secretary Ben Carson with finding over $500 billion in accounting errors made by the Obama administration. FactCheck.org reported that the errors were discovered and published by HUD's independent inspector general before Carson became secretary.[17]

The Daily Wire has published articles expressing skepticism that climate change is occurring and that humans contribute to climate change. Climate scientists have described the articles as inaccurate and misleading.
at the height of WWII, 20% of the entire male US population was active duty military. at the height of the vietnam war it was 3%
MrSparkle
RealGM
Posts: 15,217
And1: 4,900
Joined: Jul 31, 2003
Location: chicago

Re: Coronavirus 

Post#1540 » by MrSparkle » Thu Mar 26, 2020 11:21 pm

Few folks said they’ve (possibly) had C-19.. starting to feel I might have it. All mild, but past 2 days I’ve had a sensation of deep chest phlegm and trouble sleeping. Today a dry cough slight chills. No fever. Overall a mildly impaired deep breathing. Hoping it’s not it (season allergies? I’m prone), but if it is it, hoping it stays mild. But i’m hearing a lot how it goes from 0-60.. so fingers crossed.

Return to Chicago Bulls