The Bulls-Heat 4th Quarter Project - Completed

[alucryts]

I will say if one of Wade, Lebron, or Battier are hurt, the Heat are going to have a problem on defense.

I think it's possible that, as a team, they're better defensively this year than they were last year. Chalmers isn't a bad defender. Their interior defenders, Anthony, Haslem, and Bosh, are still there and are still good. They'll still meet Rose, Boozer, and Noah at the rim. The key will be knocking down open shots -- the Mavs were able to do that against them, but the Bulls weren't.

Yup, it's all in the open shots. I think the defensive improvement will come more from the Heat playing together a second year than the players.

[dice]

But the idea of the Heat going down 0-2 looking like they might get possibly swept out of the ECF, might have lended a few sympathy calls early in a game 2 when they were getting stomped by some 'scrubs'. That's not good for ratings. Needed a long competitive series at least. Game 7's are almost always called the most fair - but in working to help a series to that point, sometimes the best laid plans of mice and zebras goes astray.

i don't believe this...at all. first there's the very idea that the league has conspired with officials to produce certain results and it's never come to light. the chances are miniscule. and secondly, even if there WAS this sort of conspiracy going on, they've been astoundingly bad at getting the results they want. not a whole lot of series go 7 games

[dice]

Here's your flurry o' fouls to start the second quarter. While I don't think any are blatantly wrong, they are just exceptionally touchy. Regardless, this should not have affected the Bulls like it did.

1st: CJ called for foul at mid court going after ball
2nd: Omer called for moving screen.
3rd: Deng called for hand check on Lebron.
Bulls in penalty.

thanks for the video. those latter 2 calls weren't even questionable. clear illegal trip by omer (though inadvertent) and no complaint whatsoever by deng on the hand check (though we can't see the foul occur on that video)

boy that cj call was a bitch, though. sure looked like a fair race to a loose ball w/ incidental contact

[alucryts]

Here's your flurry o' fouls to start the second quarter. While I don't think any are blatantly wrong, they are just exceptionally touchy. Regardless, this should not have affected the Bulls like it did.

1st: CJ called for foul at mid court going after ball
2nd: Omer called for moving screen.
3rd: Deng called for hand check on Lebron.
Bulls in penalty.

thanks for the video. those latter 2 calls weren't even questionable. clear illegal trip by omer (though inadvertent) and no complaint whatsoever by deng on the hand check (though we can't see the foul occur on that video)

boy that cj call was a bitch, though. sure looked like a fair race to a loose ball w/ incidental contact

I agree. Out of the three, the CJ one was the most frustrating.

[pduh01]

Sadly you going to expect lot of bad calls in possible favor for the Heat this year, and possible a long while. Teams have to fight through adversity and beat whatever odds stack against them though regardless bad calls, or not.

[cool007]

I will say if one of Wade, Lebron, or Battier are hurt, the Heat are going to have a problem on defense.

I think it's possible that, as a team, they're better defensively this year than they were last year. Chalmers isn't a bad defender. Their interior defenders, Anthony, Haslem, and Bosh, are still there and are still good. They'll still meet Rose, Boozer, and Noah at the rim. The key will be knocking down open shots -- the Mavs were able to do that against them, but the Bulls weren't.

Yup, it's all in the open shots. I think the defensive improvement will come more from the Heat playing together a second year than the players.

This is why I remember before the season started and when someone asked Rose about Bulls vs Heat series and he said, we need to make our open shots.

It seems like he and probably coaching staff watched the tapes for like millionth time and saw that we missed a lot of open shots and at times missed the open man or failed to do a 1 more pass. If we make our open shots, we can beat the Heat.

Hopefully, with the experience now, our whole team is ready and steps up and knocks down their shots.

[alucryts]

This is why I remember before the season started and when someone asked Rose about Bulls vs Heat series and he said, we need to make our open shots.

It seems like he and probably coaching staff watched the tapes for like millionth time and saw that we missed a lot of open shots and at times missed the open man or failed to do a 1 more pass. If we make our open shots, we can beat the Heat.

Hopefully, with the experience now, our whole team is ready and steps up and knocks down their shots.

I hope they are too. One thing that sticks out to me this year is that we are making a point of getting everyone involved. No one is going to be rusty or not used to taking on a big load on call come playoffs.

[Rerisen]

i don't believe this...at all. first there's the very idea that the league has conspired with officials to produce certain results and it's never come to light. the chances are miniscule. and secondly, even if there WAS this sort of conspiracy going on, they've been astoundingly bad at getting the results they want. not a whole lot of series go 7 games

Conspiracy is overstating what I meant, more like a few helping calls on 50/50 situations. I don't see them going out of their way to try and affect the game.

Same idea as what a home team gets in the NBA, but applied more to the scoreboard.

If the Bulls were the team down by a fair amount, I think a couple calls very likely don't get made, or go the other way.

[GetBuLLish]

thanks for the video. those latter 2 calls weren't even questionable. clear illegal trip by omer (though inadvertent) and no complaint whatsoever by deng on the hand check (though we can't see the foul occur on that video)

boy that cj call was a bitch, though. sure looked like a fair race to a loose ball w/ incidental contact

Where is the foul on Deng? If that's a foul, every single player will be fouled out of every game.

Wait, just reread your post. You say that the "latter 2 calls weren't even questionable." But you admit that with regards to the Deng play, "we can't see the foul occur on that video." So how is not not "even questionable"? Purely based on Deng not complaining in the 2-3 seconds after the foul is called?

[aaqubed]

thanks for the video. those latter 2 calls weren't even questionable. clear illegal trip by omer (though inadvertent) and no complaint whatsoever by deng on the hand check (though we can't see the foul occur on that video)

boy that cj call was a bitch, though. sure looked like a fair race to a loose ball w/ incidental contact

Where is the foul on Deng? If that's a foul, every single player will be fouled out of every game.

Wait, just reread your post. You say that the "latter 2 calls weren't even questionable." But you admit that with regards to the Deng play, "we can't see the foul occur on that video." So how is not not "even questionable"? Purely based on Deng not complaining in the 2-3 seconds after the foul is called?

Yeah I agree. I think the Asik call was legit -- in fact, Asik sets a LOT of moving screens every game but he just doesn't get called for them all the time. His feet were still moving so it was clearly illegal.

But Deng? That wasn't a foul. Lebron was driving into him and Deng was just D-ing him up. That happens every time down the court pretty much.

[Ajosu]

Once again, thanks for all the time you put into this, alucryts. I have to be honest, I always skip the play by play and dive right into the conclusions! I'm lazy, so I'll take your word for it on the play by play.

The most frustrating thing for me to read, outside of us just plain choking, was that we had no plan for the first three games. Makes me think back to, "the offense will take care of itself." Lots of encouraging signs here, though.

[Suited_Up]

What I'm more worried about this time around, is that Lebron is taking smarter shots. We limited them to a bunch of 3's, but what if they find a way around that?

[alucryts]

What I'm more worried about this time around, is that Lebron is taking smarter shots. We limited them to a bunch of 3's, but what if they find a way around that?

It isn't a case of smarter vs dumber shots though. This is a case of the Bulls defense not allowing anything from them possible inside the 3 point line. We played great defense.

[blumeany]

Great breakdown alucryts! And thanks again for all your work.

One thing - I noticed on 4-11 you pointed out that Rose couldn't finish over the help defense. This is true. But if you watch that play, driving was not the best move. Once Deng gives up the ball to Rose, he camps behind the 3 point line and the defense collapses once Rose enters the paint. Had Rose kicked it out at that point, Deng was open. Thomas was even open enough to screen Deng's defender.

Everything else is like you said it:

1. Lebron's defense on Rose was overrated. You could say he 'got in the way', but in no way can you say he 'shut down' Derrick Rose. It took all 5 players on the Heat to do that.

2. Lebron and Wade took an insane amount of 3's at the end - credit the Bulls D for that. That is desperation offense, no matter how you cut it.

3. Rest of the team choked, indeed. This is where Rip will (hopefully) be huge for us. Not only taking shots, but getting Boozer/Taj/Noah/Asik easy baskets as well.

It's a given that the Bulls defense will be there. They live, breathe, and eat defense. And their defense against the Heat was fine. This year will be all about the offense and continuing to execute down the stretch.

I always compare last year's Bulls team to the recent Bears teams - established, sometimes dominant defense with an offense led by a star (Rose/Cutler) with few weapons for him to work with. Getting Rip this year seems like it's the equivalent of getting Cutler someone like Randy Moss with the Patriots. A wily, older vet who's a scoring threat and can make his QB/PG look better.

[Rerisen]

In critiquing Rose's ECF, we also have to be mindful that the sprained ankle might still have been bothering him some. His foul drawing went way down after that and while it came back up, not to the same levels. He really was taking a lot more jumpers than you'd expect. Even vs Atlanta.

The worry now is whether he is going to be similarly limited this year due to the turf toe.

[Suited_Up]

What I'm more worried about this time around, is that Lebron is taking smarter shots. We limited them to a bunch of 3's, but what if they find a way around that?

It isn't a case of smarter vs dumber shots though. This is a case of the Bulls defense not allowing anything from them possible inside the 3 point line. We played great defense.

I don't mean last season though, I mean Lebron has taken probably less than 5 three's so far this season. That's a whole different thing. I'm just saying, we can't assume they'll play the same, because so far this season, they're not.

[alucryts]

What I'm more worried about this time around, is that Lebron is taking smarter shots. We limited them to a bunch of 3's, but what if they find a way around that?

It isn't a case of smarter vs dumber shots though. This is a case of the Bulls defense not allowing anything from them possible inside the 3 point line. We played great defense.

I don't mean last season though, I mean Lebron has taken probably less than 5 three's so far this season. That's a whole different thing. I'm just saying, we can't assume they'll play the same, because so far this season, they're not.

Ahh I see what your saying; basically talking about Lebron's post game. I do think that the Bulls will be able to force Lebron into poor shot selections still with the post game. Tsherkin wrote a post on dissecting each players post games, and he brought up a good point on Lebron's that sticks out to me when I watch it now: Lebron is good when he makes simple moves leading to shots, but he is poor when he has to make more complicated moves. Knowing something like this, possibly overplaying any immediate moves in order to allow more open shots from a complicated move is a strategy to try?

Overall though, the one thing that will always be in the Bulls favor is that the defense simply does not allow inside shots. The longer and longer the defense is allowed to adapt, the more and more players begin taking jump shots and iso-ing. I'm not sure that the Heat have a system disciplined enough to stay out of isolation when the going gets tough against us; going iso for any significant part of the game outside of crunch time is a death wish for their offense.

[alucryts]

Great breakdown alucryts! And thanks again for all your work.

One thing - I noticed on 4-11 you pointed out that Rose couldn't finish over the help defense. This is true. But if you watch that play, driving was not the best move. Once Deng gives up the ball to Rose, he camps behind the 3 point line and the defense collapses once Rose enters the paint. Had Rose kicked it out at that point, Deng was open. Thomas was even open enough to screen Deng's defender.

Everything else is like you said it:

1. Lebron's defense on Rose was overrated. You could say he 'got in the way', but in no way can you say he 'shut down' Derrick Rose. It took all 5 players on the Heat to do that.

2. Lebron and Wade took an insane amount of 3's at the end - credit the Bulls D for that. That is desperation offense, no matter how you cut it.

3. Rest of the team choked, indeed. This is where Rip will (hopefully) be huge for us. Not only taking shots, but getting Boozer/Taj/Noah/Asik easy baskets as well.

It's a given that the Bulls defense will be there. They live, breathe, and eat defense. And their defense against the Heat was fine. This year will be all about the offense and continuing to execute down the stretch.

I always compare last year's Bulls team to the recent Bears teams - established, sometimes dominant defense with an offense led by a star (Rose/Cutler) with few weapons for him to work with. Getting Rip this year seems like it's the equivalent of getting Cutler someone like Randy Moss with the Patriots. A wily, older vet who's a scoring threat and can make his QB/PG look better.

Good observation on the play. I just saw Taj down low available for a pass and didn't really consider jump shots. All the points are well stated as well. I like how we are able to talk about our defense and say "ahhh they'll be dominant" and no one bats an eye lid otherwise.

[alucryts]

In critiquing Rose's ECF, we also have to be mindful that the sprained ankle might still have been bothering him some. His foul drawing went way down after that and while it came back up, not to the same levels. He really was taking a lot more jumpers than you'd expect. Even vs Atlanta.

The worry now is whether he is going to be similarly limited this year due to the turf toe.

I'm almost certain that the ankle was still limiting his ability to draw fouls. As for the last line it's been very puzzling, but Rose didn't even draw fouls all that well before the injury. I wonder if Rose is doing this in an effort to reduce wear and tear on his body?

[BIGGIEsmalls 23]

In critiquing Rose's ECF, we also have to be mindful that the sprained ankle might still have been bothering him some. His foul drawing went way down after that and while it came back up, not to the same levels. He really was taking a lot more jumpers than you'd expect. Even vs Atlanta.

The worry now is whether he is going to be similarly limited this year due to the turf toe.

I'm almost certain that the ankle was still limiting his ability to draw fouls. As for the last line it's been very puzzling, but Rose didn't even draw fouls all that well before the injury. I wonder if Rose is doing this in an effort to reduce wear and tear on his body?

Bingo!!!!

I also believe that D-Wade is doing the same. It's all about the up-coming Playoffs.