League Circles wrote:dougthonus wrote:DuckIII wrote:
Better than Coby just continuing to be this good and staying on the Bulls?
I’m not sold on Coby. We’ve been down this path with him before (similarly, not identically). Need to see it for a season.
But if this is really him now, when getting to be a number 1 and playing next an unselfish sprinter like Giddey, it’s hard to imagine any scenario where trading him this summer is likely to be better than keeping him.
If his salary is a 30% max after playing this well then trading him may still be better than keeping him.
The trade vs keep is really comparing two unknowns, one of which is cost and one is return.
In some ways I think trade vs keep is kind of a wash, it is how you align all of your moves together to maximize the trade path or keep path. In the end, it is likely that you won't be excited about Coby on his new deal and also not excited about the return he fetches.
It is clear we want to maximize the keep path based on our other decisions all pointing that way.
In the unlikely event that Coby keeps up his post-all star break performance through all of next year, he's worth 30% max in the relatively unlikely event we have to pay him that (though AK probably would anyway even if there weren't other big threats to sign him if he keeps playing like a true star). The only kind of trade that would make sense would literally be for a #1 overall pick, or another youngish lesser star plus other valuable pick(s) or player(s).
Yes, when paying guys the max, you always want it to be for the true best guy at that price level like a prime Lebron, KD, Giannis etc - somebody who can be just as good on defense as Coby has been playing on offense, but that's just so unrealistic. The way to make up for paying a 30% max to this version of Coby (should he continue playing like this all of next year) is to start by going dirt cheap where you can - your 3rd string players should be making basically league minimum instead of tens of millions of dollars combined like ours are now. We're paying like $50 million at the C position right now for what amounts to a total of $25 mil in quality IMO. You can't just only try to win when you get literally one of the best handful of 2 way players in the league (the guys that actually deserve the max). Individual player max salary is a lunacy policy in the CBA for this reason. Been screwing up the nba market for like 20+ years or however long it's been.
You guys made some great points!
I would definitely consider trading Coby, but for who/what...that's always the rub, because the answer always matters. Would you guys trade Coby this offseason for:
1) 3 1sts plus 2 swaps...IMO, yes.
2) 3 1sts...probably if they are unprotected
3) 2 1sts...maybe, depending on how likely they are to be lotto picks
I'm with most of you that I don't totally trust Coby's current level of play amidst the tanking part of the season; however, he is passing the eye-test in terms of the types of shots he is taking/making and his newly demonstrated ability to consistently get more foul shots.
If he is able to continue to perform at this level next season, is a MAX contract an overpay? IMO, two factors are worth considering...are we a top 6 team? Did he improve his game over this season? If we are clearly a play-off team with him as our #1 option, that means to me that he is able to generate our offense in a winning context, which matters a lot to me. Also, my favorite aspect of Coby's game is that he is that Jimmy/Taj type offseason worker who keeps improving...not to mention acts as a catalyst for young guys to do the same by emulating him.
The Zach comparison is hard IMO. Zach is capable of being a very-efficient multi-dimensional offensive player. So, I'd be thrilled if they were close in terms of production. IMO, this season, Zach earned his paycheck. My problem with Zach over the years was his lack of durability, not so much his play. I feel like he gets a bad rep because he really was never in a position to be a "winner".