Bears 12.0

[TheJordanRule]

Shout out to the two of you, brothers. I enjoy your deep perspectives. My optimism on Caleb comes from his ability to read a defense. It's nothing like Justin's basic think about "either Option A or Option B" skillset. They both have canon arms but Caleb is 10x as willing to stand in the pocket, let a play materialize and then take what the defense gives them, which is frequently neither Option A or Option B. It gives me confidence when a QB can think like a QB instead of a running back constantly looking for daylight. And those bread and butter plays in the short to mid range are things that Justin never had in his bag consistently. Justin's inconsistency in those parts of the field were a huge part of the dysfunction. Right now, after a year of watching Caleb, I still think CW>>>JF. Don't you feel the same?

I don't have strong thoughts on Caleb either way to be honest. I'm far from a QB whisperer and don't want to pretend I know so much about it, because I don't. My non-expert opinion watching the Bears was that he seemed to also hold on to the ball too long and struggled a ton with accuracy. Is that harder or easier to fix than Fields problem (which seemed to be more around making it through progressions and reading the defense), I don't know.

I loved Fields when we drafted him, and after watching him play in year one, I thought "he's really far away, but you got to give him three years". We did that and it didn't work. Watching Caleb, I also just went with the consensus and said he looks like a good draft pick, and after year one, I feel the same as with Fields. He's a long way away and you got to give him 3 years. Will he make improvements? I sure hope so, but nothing I saw in year one made me go "this is in the bag".

Damn, Doug... if you ain't a QB whisperer, I for damn sure ain't either. Much respect to your more grounded take. My view is based on a gut feeling more than a data driven belief, so anyone should take it with a grain of salt... that Justin's issues are more along the unfixable side of the spectrum than Caleb's. At the same time, I don't think we need to sit around waiting for another two years to decide whether CW is a good QB. The way this organization has bent over backward to support Caleb is a stark contrast to what we were doing with Justin. By the end of this year, we should know whether we have "our guy" at QB. We no longer have a broken Oline, we have an embarrassment of riches on offense, and the best offensive mind in the NFL coaching this kid. This was quite obviously NOT the situation we brought Justin into, which is why we felt compelled to give him more time. Anyway, Fleet's point about knowing almost instantly whether a guy is any good applies here. The adjustment to delivering the ball and getting out of harm's way as BJ prescribes must be made, and probably WILL be made. CW IS KOBE, BROTHERS!

[fleet]

We don’t know. Yet. Very soon we should know if he’s excellent or not. Obviously he has all the talent in the world. Quick release, arm talent, elusive and all that. I surely believe he will improve. But he’s got work to do to reach his upside, and to have confidence that it’s all gonna be fine is tough to grab onto more than blind faith. Mechanics are a question, deep ball accuracy, as well as holding the ball. We have another footwork process for another quarterback being addressed yet again. The body language police are on him. Will he take checkdowns. Does that all this stuff get ironed out? We stay tuned. It would’ve been great if we were not having all this put in front of us.. While the positives are so extreme, the negatives are so extreme. The quarterback takes the fewest checkdowns and gets sacked the most in history. Oye.

[panthermark]

All we need are the body and legs of Fields, the arm of Caleb, and the head of Agent Bagent.

[sco]

Shout out to the two of you, brothers. I enjoy your deep perspectives. My optimism on Caleb comes from his ability to read a defense. It's nothing like Justin's basic think about "either Option A or Option B" skillset. They both have canon arms but Caleb is 10x as willing to stand in the pocket, let a play materialize and then take what the defense gives them, which is frequently neither Option A or Option B. It gives me confidence when a QB can think like a QB instead of a running back constantly looking for daylight. And those bread and butter plays in the short to mid range are things that Justin never had in his bag consistently. Justin's inconsistency in those parts of the field were a huge part of the dysfunction. Right now, after a year of watching Caleb, I still think CW>>>JF. Don't you feel the same?

I don't have strong thoughts on Caleb either way to be honest. I'm far from a QB whisperer and don't want to pretend I know so much about it, because I don't. My non-expert opinion watching the Bears was that he seemed to also hold on to the ball too long and struggled a ton with accuracy. Is that harder or easier to fix than Fields problem (which seemed to be more around making it through progressions and reading the defense), I don't know.

I loved Fields when we drafted him, and after watching him play in year one, I thought "he's really far away, but you got to give him three years". We did that and it didn't work. Watching Caleb, I also just went with the consensus and said he looks like a good draft pick, and after year one, I feel the same as with Fields. He's a long way away and you got to give him 3 years. Will he make improvements? I sure hope so, but nothing I saw in year one made me go "this is in the bag".

Damn, Doug... if you ain't a QB whisperer, I for damn sure ain't either. Much respect to your more grounded take. My view is based on a gut feeling more than a data driven belief, so anyone should take it with a grain of salt... that Justin's issues are more along the unfixable side of the spectrum than Caleb's. At the same time, I don't think we need to sit around waiting for another two years to decide whether CW is a good QB. The way this organization has bent over backward to support Caleb is a stark contrast to what we were doing with Justin. By the end of this year, we should know whether we have "our guy" at QB. We no longer have a broken Oline, we have an embarrassment of riches on offense, and the best offensive mind in the NFL coaching this kid. This was quite obviously NOT the situation we brought Justin into, which is why we felt compelled to give him more time. Anyway, Fleet's point about knowing almost instantly whether a guy is any good applies here. The adjustment to delivering the ball and getting out of harm's way as BJ prescribes must be made, and probably WILL be made. CW IS KOBE, BROTHERS!

I would agree that we should know this season if we weren't changing coaches and systems (and linemen). IMO, the best we can hope for is that Caleb is trending positive the last 7 games of the season. He was not processing well last season, blame the coach, blame the line, call it the yips, but that is not something that guys change in an offseason. He'll need 2 more seasons before we'll likely know if he's "it" or sh*t.

[dougthonus]

Damn, Doug... if you ain't a QB whisperer, I for damn sure ain't either. Much respect to your more grounded take. My view is based on a gut feeling more than a data driven belief, so anyone should take it with a grain of salt... that Justin's issues are more along the unfixable side of the spectrum than Caleb's. At the same time, I don't think we need to sit around waiting for another two years to decide whether CW is a good QB. The way this organization has bent over backward to support Caleb is a stark contrast to what we were doing with Justin. By the end of this year, we should know whether we have "our guy" at QB. We no longer have a broken Oline, we have an embarrassment of riches on offense, and the best offensive mind in the NFL coaching this kid. This was quite obviously NOT the situation we brought Justin into, which is why we felt compelled to give him more time. Anyway, Fleet's point about knowing almost instantly whether a guy is any good applies here. The adjustment to delivering the ball and getting out of harm's way as BJ prescribes must be made, and probably WILL be made. CW IS KOBE, BROTHERS!

It would probably take an unmitigated disaster for me not to give Caleb 3 years (2 more). I hope he kills it this year, but as long as we see some progress and not regression, I can't imagine moving on from him after this year.

[fleet]

I don’t doubt he’s likely a good enough leader. Seems to be. Thuney says he works hard. But as Albert Breer said, they are needing to instill some leadership stuff into him that he actually should know already, like getting up off the ground. Granted, 67 sacks. It’s a lot. But what if he’s just not Ben Johnson’s kind of guy he wants to work with for the next 10 years? Does Caleb want to be here in 4 years? He’s potentially Lebronesque to me in that regard. He’s a trend setter, sets his own rules. There is still a lot we don’t know, and I don’t agree with a need to be waiting another 2-3 years to know. Whether or not it is doable right away, I believe they’ll know after this season if they want to move on. Rex Tucker was crushed for bringing it up. Some things are more know able quicker than we think. Ben Johnson is not the same vintage of Bears football people that didn’t known what the **** they were looking at who ownership runs through here. Ben should be able to figure it all out for this organization.

[AshyLarrysDiaper]

All we need are the body and legs of Fields, the arm of Caleb, and the head of Agent Bagent.

So Jayden Daniels, basically.

[chitowndish]

I’d also say the reasons I’m hopeful for Caleb as a processor is he did spread the ball around well to different options and didn’t get hyper focused on one guy like Fields. He also did a decent job of feeding the hot hand so if someone was having a good game he got them the ball so these are things that I think of as almost good PG skills it isn’t just random he’s trying to dictate and manage the offense. The other was he did progress throughout the season against tougher competition his trajectory continued to improve even while the coaching was chaotic.

Then one thing I liked that is unrelated to processing is through all of those sacks he still stood in the pocket took hits and tried to deliver the ball. Maybe he shouldn’t have so much but he’s tough and is willing to put it on the line for the team so it’s a good thing to see out of a player. Especially when you have a WR walking off the field while it’s happening.

Are you talking about last season? I didn't see that at all.

I think he was often hyper focused on KA, and did a horrible job spreading the ball around or finding the hot hand.
Kmet had 3 games with zero targets, 3 games with one target, 2 games with two targets, and 3 games with three targets.

Here are the number of games each person was the lead receiver under Caleb, Allen is third and roughly similar to Rome. I don't see a case of Caleb hyper fixating on Allen instead like I was saying when Allen was playing well Caleb kept feeding him the ball.

Caleb 2024 Lead Rec
Moore 8
Rome 4
Allen 3
Kmet 1
Swift 1
17

https://www.espn.com/nfl/team/schedule/_/name/chi/season/2024

Here are the number of games each receiver was lead receiver under Fields and he is just completely hyper focused on Moore.

Fields 2025 Lead Rec
Moore 13
Kmet 2
Mooney 2

17

https://www.espn.com/nfl/team/schedule/_/name/chi/season/2023

Kmet went from 90 targets and 720 yards under Fields to 55 targets and 475 yards under Caleb but that's more because he wasn't the number 2 option anymore Allen and Rome both leap frogged him but he still had similar yard and target numbers to Mooney under Fields. He was also about the same effectiveness as far as yards per targets so he wasn't being used any worse he was just being used less because he wasn't the second option anymore. You have the guy that Caleb is supposedly ignoring (#4 receiver) being targeted as much and used as effectively as Field's #3 receiver. If you look at it by yards Caleb basically fit in an extra 700 yard receiver because both Rome and Allen under Caleb performed similarly to Kmet under Fields (approx 100 targets and 700 yards) and then Kmet under Caleb played pretty similarly to Moony under Fields (50 targets and around 450 yards).

[dice]

so where would caleb go in a draft of all nfl QBs, age and contract factored in?

obviously 5 going ahead of him: mahomes, jackson, allen, burrow, daniels

i think he pretty clearly goes ahead of: goff (age/contract), stafford (ditto), dak (ditto), mayfield, tua, nix, bryce, ward

so...the competition for the 6-14 slots:

herbert (age 27, 65 QBR, $55 per for 5 years)
hurts (age 27, 62 QBR, $61 per for 4 years, 1 title)
lawrence (age 26, 52 QBR, $38 per for 4 years)
love (age 27, 66 QBR, $59 per for 4 years)
maye (age 23, 59 QBR, $14 per for 4 years)
murray (age 28, 60 QBR, $47 per for 4 years)
purdy (age 25, 71 QBR, $45 per for 6 years)
stroud (age 24, 54 QBR, $17 per for 3 years)

[panthermark]

I’d also say the reasons I’m hopeful for Caleb as a processor is he did spread the ball around well to different options and didn’t get hyper focused on one guy like Fields. He also did a decent job of feeding the hot hand so if someone was having a good game he got them the ball so these are things that I think of as almost good PG skills it isn’t just random he’s trying to dictate and manage the offense. The other was he did progress throughout the season against tougher competition his trajectory continued to improve even while the coaching was chaotic.

Then one thing I liked that is unrelated to processing is through all of those sacks he still stood in the pocket took hits and tried to deliver the ball. Maybe he shouldn’t have so much but he’s tough and is willing to put it on the line for the team so it’s a good thing to see out of a player. Especially when you have a WR walking off the field while it’s happening.

Are you talking about last season? I didn't see that at all.

I think he was often hyper focused on KA, and did a horrible job spreading the ball around or finding the hot hand.
Kmet had 3 games with zero targets, 3 games with one target, 2 games with two targets, and 3 games with three targets.

Here are the number of games each person was the lead receiver under Caleb, Allen is third and roughly similar to Rome. I don't see a case of Caleb hyper fixating on Allen instead like I was saying when Allen was playing well Caleb kept feeding him the ball.

Caleb 2024 Lead Rec
Moore 8
Rome 4
Allen 3
Kmet 1
Swift 1
17

https://www.espn.com/nfl/team/schedule/_/name/chi/season/2024

Here are the number of games each receiver was lead receiver under Fields and he is just completely hyper focused on Moore.

Fields 2025 Lead Rec
Moore 13
Kmet 2
Mooney 2

17

https://www.espn.com/nfl/team/schedule/_/name/chi/season/2023

Kmet went from 90 targets and 720 yards under Fields to 55 targets and 475 yards under Caleb but that's more because he wasn't the number 2 option anymore Allen and Rome both leap frogged him but he still had similar yard and target numbers to Mooney under Fields. He was also about the same effectiveness as far as yards per targets so he wasn't being used any worse he was just being used less because he wasn't the second option anymore. You have the guy that Caleb is supposedly ignoring (#4 receiver) being targeted as much and used as effectively as Field's #3 receiver. If you look at it by yards Caleb basically fit in an extra 700 yard receiver because both Rome and Allen under Caleb performed similarly to Kmet under Fields (approx 100 targets and 700 yards) and then Kmet under Caleb played pretty similarly to Moony under Fields (50 targets and around 450 yards).

Fields was "hyper focused" on Moore because he was by far the best and most productive WR on the team, and there is a bit of a talent gap between the two teams at WR if you are making a comparison.

Take a look at catch percentages last year.
Rome and KA were two of the worst on the team while Kmet caught everything thrown at him. I can somewhat understand Rome's low percentage as a deep threat rookie (and deep balls were a struggle for CW), but KA's catch percentage meant a lot of passes went to him that should have probably gone to someone else more productive.

[chitowndish]

Fields was "hyper focused" on Moore because he was by far the best and most productive WR on the team, and there is a bit of a talent gap between the two teams at WR if you are making a comparison.

Take a look at catch percentages last year.
Rome and KA were two of the worst on the team while Kmet caught everything thrown at him. I can somewhat understand Rome's low percentage as a deep threat rookie (and deep balls were a struggle for CW), but KA's catch percentage meant a lot of passes went to him that should have probably gone to someone else more productive.

It looks to me like all of our TE and RB are in the 80% range so that seems to be a lot more of a positional thing than Kmet was better because he also has a significantly higher catch rate than Moore as well and it's because TE and RB get a lot of the shorter and easier passes than the WR are seeing. I also don't see how looking at season total catch rate is going to tell you anything about who is the hot hand in a particular game.

Caleb did have more talent but the point was that he actually used it Mooney was a good receiver the two seasons prior and you can blame Claypool but you could also say Fields should have been able to get production out of these two.

[Dresden]

I don't have strong thoughts on Caleb either way to be honest. I'm far from a QB whisperer and don't want to pretend I know so much about it, because I don't. My non-expert opinion watching the Bears was that he seemed to also hold on to the ball too long and struggled a ton with accuracy. Is that harder or easier to fix than Fields problem (which seemed to be more around making it through progressions and reading the defense), I don't know.

I loved Fields when we drafted him, and after watching him play in year one, I thought "he's really far away, but you got to give him three years". We did that and it didn't work. Watching Caleb, I also just went with the consensus and said he looks like a good draft pick, and after year one, I feel the same as with Fields. He's a long way away and you got to give him 3 years. Will he make improvements? I sure hope so, but nothing I saw in year one made me go "this is in the bag".

Damn, Doug... if you ain't a QB whisperer, I for damn sure ain't either. Much respect to your more grounded take. My view is based on a gut feeling more than a data driven belief, so anyone should take it with a grain of salt... that Justin's issues are more along the unfixable side of the spectrum than Caleb's. At the same time, I don't think we need to sit around waiting for another two years to decide whether CW is a good QB. The way this organization has bent over backward to support Caleb is a stark contrast to what we were doing with Justin. By the end of this year, we should know whether we have "our guy" at QB. We no longer have a broken Oline, we have an embarrassment of riches on offense, and the best offensive mind in the NFL coaching this kid. This was quite obviously NOT the situation we brought Justin into, which is why we felt compelled to give him more time. Anyway, Fleet's point about knowing almost instantly whether a guy is any good applies here. The adjustment to delivering the ball and getting out of harm's way as BJ prescribes must be made, and probably WILL be made. CW IS KOBE, BROTHERS!

I would agree that we should know this season if we weren't changing coaches and systems (and linemen). IMO, the best we can hope for is that Caleb is trending positive the last 7 games of the season. He was not processing well last season, blame the coach, blame the line, call it the yips, but that is not something that guys change in an offseason. He'll need 2 more seasons before we'll likely know if he's "it" or sh*t.

I agree that it could take some time. A whole new system to learn, 3 new lineman, two new receivers- that's a lot to integrate in the space of one off season. That's my biggest concern- not so much Caleb's ability, but how long it will take for all of them to get on the same page, to know the plays, to have the reads become second nature instead of something you have to think about, the chemistry between Caleb and his receivers. that stuff can take years to develop. Realistically, it could take another couple of years before the offense reaches its peak. But hopefully there is immediate improvement, and the team will show signs of being really good before too long.

OTH, you have teams like the Commanders (still want to say Redskins), and the Texans, who seemed to put it all together in the first year. Maybe that happens here. It wouldn't shock a lot of observers.

[Dresden]

I don’t doubt he’s likely a good enough leader. Seems to be. Thuney says he works hard. But as Albert Breer said, they are needing to instill some leadership stuff into him that he actually should know already, like getting up off the ground. Granted, 67 sacks. It’s a lot. But what if he’s just not Ben Johnson’s kind of guy he wants to work with for the next 10 years? Does Caleb want to be here in 4 years? He’s potentially Lebronesque to me in that regard. He’s a trend setter, sets his own rules. There is still a lot we don’t know, and I don’t agree with a need to be waiting another 2-3 years to know. Whether or not it is doable right away, I believe they’ll know after this season if they want to move on. Rex Tucker was crushed for bringing it up. Some things are more know able quicker than we think. Ben Johnson is not the same vintage of Bears football people that didn’t known what the **** they were looking at who ownership runs through here. Ben should be able to figure it all out for this organization.

It's possible Johnson gets fed up with Caleb and wants to go in a new direction, but highly unlikely, IMO. He knew Caleb was the guy when he took the job. He saw the film, he knows that player pretty well. Hard to imagine he'd come here if he had big reservations about the new QB.

[Michael Jackson]

All we need are the body and legs of Fields, the arm of Caleb, and the head of Agent Bagent.

So Jayden Daniels, basically.

If Jayden had JF1's body he would be insane. His slight frame is his real only weakness

[fleet]

Jayden’s speed combined with his mind and arm talent is ridiculous. And I believe his mind is his best quality, which is scary. If he was able to weaponize his speed with a thicker body to accept more contact, we might be looking at an historic quarterback. Yet if he was able to use his speed more liberally with a stronger body, he might not have developed the pocket quarterback skills. Weirdly, Fields never much used his legs in college, and the pocket quarterback skills still didn’t develop. Jayden just has it in him to utilize physical potential

[Michael Jackson]

Jayden’s speed combined with his mind and arm talent is ridiculous. And I believe his mind is his best quality, which is scary. If he was able to weaponize his speed with a thicker body to accept more contact, we might be looking at an historic quarterback. Yet if he was able to use his speed more liberally with a stronger body, he might not have developed the pocket quarterback skills. Weirdly, Fields never much used his legs in college, and the pocket quarterback skills still didn’t develop. Jayden just has it in him to utilize physical potential.

Agreed on all points.

[fleet]

Jayden’s speed combined with his mind and arm talent is ridiculous. And I believe his mind is his best quality, which is scary. If he was able to weaponize his speed with a thicker body to accept more contact, we might be looking at an historic quarterback. Yet if he was able to use his speed more liberally with a stronger body, he might not have developed the pocket quarterback skills. Weirdly, Fields never much used his legs in college, and the pocket quarterback skills still didn’t develop. Jayden just has it in him to utilize physical potential.

Agreed on all points.

While we mention that his size could limit the volume usage of his speed, he also could discover that he’s one those genetic freaks that nevertheless stays intact, and he taps into it more. So far so good. Looking at Anthony Richardson. His size hasn’t kept him healthy.

[molepharmer]

fwiw - B Johnson, C Keenum, M Sweat and C Williams expected to speak to press today after practice.

[TheJordanRule]

Jayden’s speed combined with his mind and arm talent is ridiculous. And I believe his mind is his best quality, which is scary. If he was able to weaponize his speed with a thicker body to accept more contact, we might be looking at an historic quarterback. Yet if he was able to use his speed more liberally with a stronger body, he might not have developed the pocket quarterback skills. Weirdly, Fields never much used his legs in college, and the pocket quarterback skills still didn’t develop. Jayden just has it in him to utilize physical potential.

Agreed on all points.

While we mention that his size could limit the volume usage of his speed, he also could discover that he’s one those genetic freaks that nevertheless stays intact, and he taps into it more. So far so good. Looking at Anthony Richardson. His size hasn’t kept him healthy.

You putting this on Poles for choosing CW instead, Fleet? There was no indication that Jayden would come out of the draft playing like this, Fleet. CW was the "generational" guy at QB, the consensus #1 pick. Jayden was the WR speed guy who could QB similar to how Justin was the RB rushing guy who could QB. I can't blame Poles for betting on KOBE! CW IS KOBE!

[fleet]

Agreed on all points.

While we mention that his size could limit the volume usage of his speed, he also could discover that he’s one those genetic freaks that nevertheless stays intact, and he taps into it more. So far so good. Looking at Anthony Richardson. His size hasn’t kept him healthy.

You putting this on Poles for choosing CW instead, Fleet? There was no indication that Jayden would come out of the draft playing like this, Fleet. CW was the "generational" guy at QB, the consensus #1 pick. Jayden was the WR speed guy who could QB similar to how Justin was the RB rushing guy who could QB. I can't blame Poles for betting on KOBE! CW IS KOBE!

Not yet!

Stay tuned. I was a Drake Maye guy. It is Pole’s job though to make the best choices on talent. You can’t blow this call. And lets also add in CJ Stroud and *gasp* Bryce Young. It’s all on his report card TJR. This is a million dollar job, and we expect million dollar results.