2018 Draft Thread #6

[Benedict Miller]

I think that drafting a SF other than Porter (maybe) is a fail. I think the position is changing to be the anti-stretch PF. "Good" SF's are the bane of winning a championship. Unless you can find a 6-10+ freak athlete with elite defensive and 1-1 scoring skills, your gonna lose the match-up game against LBJ, KD, Kawhi and PG (and Simmons)...it's a fail.

My goal is to find a great defensive PF or C to play alongside Lauri and home we can entice a disgruntled stud SF to come be our final piece in a year.

But Porter isn't a freak athlete, nor does he have elite defensive skills.

I like Bridges, looks solid, but you think he'll be better than Porter?

[JimmyJammer]

My point is that whoever goes #1 in this draft isn't going #1 because they're clearly the best prospect available. It's likely subjective. Because of that, the franchise player of this draft is anyone's guess.

And the higher you pick, the more prospects you get to choose from, which gives you a higher chance of hitting on that pick.

I don't what the hell the hell your argument is, if it's that basically getting a 2-7 in poker is just like getting a pair of aces because you don't actually know what's going to happen, that's just dumb.

You tell this fanbase that the goal of ditching Jimmy Butler is to suck just enough to get the #7 pick or something and they are absolutely furious.

I am actually not furious at all because I believe that we already have enough in that trade, even without knowing our draft pick position this year. In fact, knowing what I know now, I would not trade anything more than Valentine, Nwaba and Bobby for Jimmy. It's funny how things work.

[GimmeDat]

It's a bit of a simplistic comparison, but for me, Porter is like the combo forward version of Lavine. That definitely has its value, and heck, I've been one of those more forward than most in considering Jabari in the off-season who is of a similar mold, but as a long term compliment on the perimeter it's not ideal.

I'm not sold on Porter being an SF in the first place but even if he is, I don't think it's a great fit around our existing pieces. If you really think he's good enough to live up to the 'hype' (#1 overall material), then you take him as a BPA selection, but I'm not sure I see anything head and shoulders above the other top tier prospects based on what we can go by. If it's towards the beggars can't be choosers section of the 1st tier, which we'll likely find ourselves, then maybe he's simply the most talented selection, in which case I won't complain (definitely take him over Young, Mikal, Carter, for instance), but considering we also haven't seen him in college, he has a legitimate injury concern, etc., I would probably not take him above Bagley, Bamba, JJJ, etc.

[No-Man]

Porter is probably the most gifted athlete in this class when you blend in basketball skills, Ayton and Bagley come close though, but overall with his ability to raise, natural shot,and how low he can get on his handle (night and day compared to Bagley) I would take Porter, the back is scary and his biggest issue athletically before the injury was stiffness so those might be related, but if his medicals are clear, he is the only guy to me that has a case to go nº1 other than Doncic

[bearadonisdna]

Porter is probably the most gifted athlete in this class when you blend in basketball skills, Ayton and Bagley come close though, but overall with his ability to raise, natural shot,and how low he can get on his handle (night and day compared to Bagley) I would take Porter, the back is scary and his biggest issue athletically before the injury was stiffness so those might be related, but if his medicals are clear, he is the only guy to me that has a case to go nº1 other than Doncic

Yes, back problems could be scary, especially for an older player.
But i read somewhere on this board, a back problem for an 18 year old is likely to heal up 100% at some point.
And a tall mobile kid, whos playing college ball because of mandates, im taking this extended layoff with a grain of salt.

And as far as his athletic ability, nbadraft.net has his athleticism as a 9 out of 10. Yes, i understand that site shouldnt be taken as an absolute.)
His speed shows up on game tape and you can see the athleticism with between the leg dunks. Generally almost any guy that can do that is regarded as top tier athleticism.

Of course any guy who is 6’10 can be projected playing PF minutes because of size but his strengths and attributes mostly project as a perimeter player. For example ,as a big, we arent hearing about his rebounding, defense, interior scoring or the skill sets we gauge the other bigs in the draft.

[biggestbullsfan]

If Porters Back is as big a problem as it’s been, then he will drop in the draft. But we won’t find out until the combine when they are doing physicals. Unless his agents tell teams he isn’t going physicals. Which in wouldn’t exclude if they know something isn’t right.

[DuckIII]

I'm not arguing for a lower pick over a higher pick. I said that picking the franchise player from a group of seven similarly talented players offers different value than a draft where there is a clear cut no-brainer selection.

They're not "similarly" talented. You only think they are because you, and the rest of us, have no clue. By the time the draft happens there will be some sort of established hierarchy, there always is. Of course none of us dumb nobodies will still actually have any clue.

If Jaren Jackson Jr. goes #1 overall, are you going to argue that he has a better chance of becoming a franchise-changing talent than the field?

That's a stupid strawman. Nobody gets to take "the field."

Even though you appear to be in strong disagreement, I think you are both right. Higher pick means better pick because it gives you more options. Then its up to you to do the proper scouting and then, of the course, its up to the player himself to work hard. There is no counter-argument to what you are saying. The more options the better options.

On the other hand, as someone who is such a huge Trae Young supporter, I would think you would be at least a little more understanding to what Red is trying to say. In that, he's saying as the the season has evolved this has turned into what projects to be a very unusual draft in the sense that there are 7 highly dissimilar players (hell, 8 or 9 according to some projections, but I don't accept them) who keep flying up and down the boards. I don't recall a projected draft like this in quite some time.

I think he's saying that there will be a team who drafts 4th or even 7th who will get the #1 guy on their board. Relatively speaking, in most drafts everyone is pining for a top 2 or top 3 pick. This draft is different in that regard. Obviously all of the tankers still want the highest pick that they can get, but I think thats separate than what Red is trying to say.

Regardless, we're 8th.

[DuckIII]

The #1 overall pick is easily the best pick to have in the draft. Stop obfuscating that with your bull ****.

Maybe I'm misunderstanding what Red is saying. I haven't seen him say that the higher your draft position, the better. I think he's saying that it doesn't guarantee a franchise changing talent, that history supports this, but more to the point this draft class appears to be unusually tightly grouped from 1-7 which makes it even more difficult to project where the best guys will get drafted.

And I don't think there's anything extreme about that thought.

And look, I actually do think there are clearly 2 prospects in this draft that have separated themselves (Ayton and Doncic). So I don't even buy the theory myself. But if you look around at the ever evolving draft boards and scouting reports there appears to be a whole of disagreement about where these guys should be ranked.

[Red Larrivee]

The failed tank of this season will haunt this franchise for the next 10 years unless Anthony Davis magically decides to come home or that 8-10 pick is much better than predicted. The current ceiling of this group with a player in the 8-10 range looks like a perennial 5-6 seed at best.

Some of you need to go back to past drafts and educate yourself.You're acting like every player in the Top 6 or whatever is going to become some franchise-altering talent.

Whoever wins the lottery is going to have to correctly guess the franchise player out of a group of 6-7 popular names. Good luck.

While making a completely flawed and ignorant explanation for 1.5 pages. Cute.

Whoever wins the lottery is not going to ‘guess’ at anything.. they’re going to project Ayton for what he is and that is an elite prospect.

And Ayton could easily go 2 or 3 while each team before them gets their highest rated player.

[DuckIII]

Mikal isn't a good pick for gambling on your #1 option on a championship team like Lebron, Kobe, Curry, etc.. But picking at #9 or #10 maybe we throw that out the window and "settle" for getting our defensive stud.

Being drafted older hasn't been a problem for drafting great defensive players. Draymond was a Senior. Kawhi a sophomore. Rudy Gobert was 21. Jimmy Butler was a Junior.

I'd be OK w/ Mikal from that perspective, it does bring up if we're going to have to tank even harder next season. Seems impossible without holding the youngsters back.

lottery reform kicks in for the 2019 draft so tanking in theory shouldn't matter

This is incorrect. Tank theory doesn't apply as strongly to getting a bottom 3 record, but if you are out of the bottom three the incentive to tank is even greater. The reality is that it has created a new problem. There will be teams who think they could possibly make the playoffs if they made a few moves at the deadline, who now won't because they'd rather just keep riding it out and land 8th pick odds or something.

These are the new odds.

Team 1 14.0%
Team 2 14.0%
Team 3 14.0%
Team 4 12.5%
Team 5 10.5%
Team 6 9.0%
Team 7 7.5%
Team 8 6.0%
Team 9 4.5%
Team 10 3.0%
Team 11 2.0%
Team 12 1.5%
Team 13 1.0%
Team 14 0.5%

The 8th team, for example, has almost 50% odds as the worst team. Under the current system, its more like 10%. This rule change didn't eliminate tanking. It just created a new type of tanking. And its one that will actually help a team like the Bulls next year who probably still won't project as a playoff team.

[DuckIII]

It can't work for everybody though. While the odds are better for teams after the worst 5, teams that are worst 5 will have a much poorer chance at a top pick. So it's not going to make tanking more common, I don't think.

That's not accurate. The odds have only gotten worse for the bottom 3 teams. Everyone's else's odds have improved.

[Red Larrivee]

this, but more to the point this draft class appears to be unusually tightly grouped from 1-7 which makes it even more difficult to project where the best guys will get drafted.

And I don't think there's anything extreme about that thought.

That's my thought.

Yes, the #1 pick breeds the most hall of fame players. However, the bulk of those selections were all unanimously valued as the #1 choice. No team wasn't taking Anthony Davis #1 in his year. This draft has not resembled that in evaluation all season. It's still very much a tight group and the #1 pick could vary based on team.




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[bearadonisdna]

Sorry to chime in this conversation but its interesting.
I wonder how many mock drafts dont have ayton as the number one pick. (Edit:Like a %)
In the case of chicago, if they were have the number 1 pick they could go in another direction of ayton. But the other teams arent chicago.

[jump]

I must say that I have little problem with the bitterness of the pro-tankers over the past few pages. Duck's recent responses were impressively patient. Let's not get nasty around here. It's already nasty enough in the rest of the world. I come here to read about sports because usually, it's an escape from the political rancor in the rest of the news.

[Chitownbulls]

Just lose to Memphis an Atlanta an we should be good

[Dresden]

Porter is probably the most gifted athlete in this class when you blend in basketball skills, Ayton and Bagley come close though, but overall with his ability to raise, natural shot,and how low he can get on his handle (night and day compared to Bagley) I would take Porter, the back is scary and his biggest issue athletically before the injury was stiffness so those might be related, but if his medicals are clear, he is the only guy to me that has a case to go nº1 other than Doncic

The upside with Porter is considerable. He could be a 25/8/4 sort of player at his peak. I see the Lavine comparisons on offense, there's no solid evidence he has Lavine's weaknesses- poor defensively, not a team player on offense. He is an alpha scorer, which we really need. I guess it's a question of how effective he'll be at that. Lavine would be a superstar if he were better as a 1 on 1 scorer and a better defender. Because of his outside shooting, you can use Porter as a spot up, 3 pt. threat. But he also has the ability to post up, or to take guys off the dribble.

Porter has the length and athleticism to be a very good defender. I absolutely see him as a 3 because of his ball handling skills, and also because he's not big enough to guard 4's inside.

[Dresden]

Just lose to Memphis an Atlanta an we should be good

If we can split with MEM, it would be huge. And then lose to both ATL and ORL. We owe those two a loss- we've gone 5-0 v. them so far this year.

[No-Man]

He is plenty big to guard 4s and boards really well, Porter is going to have an easier life both on D and O as a 4, there are like no fours that play inside in the NBA other than Griffin/Davis

[TheSuzerain]

He is plenty big to guard 4s and boards really well, Porter is going to have an easier life both on D and O as a 4, there are like no fours that play inside in the NBA other than Griffin/Davis

That raises the question of fit with Markkanen.

[No-Man]

He is plenty big to guard 4s and boards really well, Porter is going to have an easier life both on D and O as a 4, there are like no fours that play inside in the NBA other than Griffin/Davis

That raises the question of fit with Markkanen.

I would not worry about it at this point honestly, in the PO you might want to play Lauri at the 5 anyway