Matas Progress Tracker

[Chi town]

Thanks for the insight. I'm just looking at the draft class's basketball-reference page and it seems like the second rounders produced nearly as much as the first rounders. I was wondering if that's mainly because they're older, 4 years at college sort of players and don't project as well, or if the level of talent was just pretty even all the way down. Makes me wonder how the value of a first round pick will compare to a second rounder as a trade asset going forward. We've seen some pretty wild trades involving multiple draft picks in recent years, right? Maybe that's not such a silly idea as previously thought. I'm thinking about the Bane trade specifically although that still seems a little wacky.

Unrelated, but I am sooo out of the loop. KD plays for Houston now?? Planning on watching more bball next season.

I do think there's a general feeling that non-high picks are about the same. The odds of a draft pick generating an all-star flatten starting at #12, so #12 to #30 all have the same rough odds of a star. Top 10 picks are where they actually start being meaningfully different, which is why we see "top 10 protected" being such a common protection because teams have the data and know the value prop is completely different.

This is why it was crazy for Chicago to refuse NO's offer of #23 plus their unprotected pick next year for our #12. Heck, Asa Newell might be better than Noa even without the extra pick.

Not sure about 2nd round, but I doubt there some big difference between #30 and #31. Lots of scouts said the number 30 is artificial, that the 2nd round isn't different than the lower 1st round. And we do see multiple 2nd rounder picks having good value. Part of the Kevin Durant trade package was 2 second round picks. Which is why it sucks the Bulls are pretty loose with burning 2nd rounders for nothing, like using two 2nd rounders for Phillips and just selling this year's for cash.

Totally agree with your evaluation unless you believe Noa is the next Buzelis that dropped.

I tend to agree with that for Noa as I think he’s going to be a winning player but my take on next years draft is that it is even better than this draft and the Pels will be coughing up a top 7 pick. Yess Ament and Cenac could all be drafted there and become cornerstones.

[Chi town]

Cowley saying he thinks Buz will be finalist for MIP.

Also think Vuc gets traded early, Bulls get 7th seed and lose to ORL.

[Lexluthor]

I still don’t understand why he wants to play for Lithuania over the us .

[Muzbar]

I still don’t understand why he wants to play for Lithuania over the us .

Probably because of his Lithuanian heritage and the fact his mother and father have also both represented Lithuanian internationally also.

Also, he'd likely not get a look in on the US squad.

[Lexluthor]

I still don’t understand why he wants to play for Lithuania over the us .

Probably because of his Lithuanian heritage and the fact his mother and father have also both represented Lithuanian internationally also.

Also, he'd likely not get a look in on the US squad.

But he is American. Plus Lithuania is never a factor in the medal rounds in the Olympics . If he breaks out this year he could be on Team USA Radar

[jnrjr79]

I still don’t understand why he wants to play for Lithuania over the us .

Probably because of his Lithuanian heritage and the fact his mother and father have also both represented Lithuanian internationally also.

Also, he'd likely not get a look in on the US squad.

But he is American. Plus Lithuania is never a factor in the medal rounds in the Olympics . If he breaks out this year he could be on Team USA Radar

If he becomes good enough to make Team USA, he can always switch. There's no reason for him to turn down an offer to play for Lithuania if he wants to.

[kodo]

Cowley saying he thinks Buz will be finalist for MIP.

Also think Vuc gets traded early, Bulls get 7th seed and lose to ORL.

His biggest obstacle is Donovan.
When Matas played 29min+
18 ppg 5 rpg, 64% TS.

Imagine if he played 33 or 34 minutes.

The most common response from Billy on why Matas gets benched is "defensive rotations" when is insane when he still gives Vucevic full starter minutes.

[Muzbar]

I still don’t understand why he wants to play for Lithuania over the us .

Probably because of his Lithuanian heritage and the fact his mother and father have also both represented Lithuanian internationally also.

Also, he'd likely not get a look in on the US squad.

But he is American. Plus Lithuania is never a factor in the medal rounds in the Olympics . If he breaks out this year he could be on Team USA Radar

He's also Lithuanian.

[coldfish]

Cowley saying he thinks Buz will be finalist for MIP.

Also think Vuc gets traded early, Bulls get 7th seed and lose to ORL.

His biggest obstacle is Donovan.
When Matas played 29min+
18 ppg 5 rpg, 64% TS.

Imagine if he played 33 or 34 minutes.

The most common response from Billy on why Matas gets benched is "defensive rotations" when is insane when he still gives Vucevic full starter minutes.

Donovan was tough on Matas but honestly it seemed to work. The opposite of that is Pat Williams who got entitlement minutes from day one and it seems to have ruined his career.

[Chi town]

Cowley saying he thinks Buz will be finalist for MIP.

Also think Vuc gets traded early, Bulls get 7th seed and lose to ORL.

His biggest obstacle is Donovan.
When Matas played 29min+
18 ppg 5 rpg, 64% TS.

Imagine if he played 33 or 34 minutes.

The most common response from Billy on why Matas gets benched is "defensive rotations" when is insane when he still gives Vucevic full starter minutes.

Donovan was tough on Matas but honestly it seemed to work. The opposite of that is Pat Williams who got entitlement minutes from day one and it seems to have ruined his career.

This where I’m at.

Buz earned his mins and his body would not have stood up to to big mins all season.

I hope Billy runs the same play for Noa. Make him earn mins. I think Noa will play a lot more G League to more depth on Bulls and he is more raw and younger than Buz.

[CROBulls]

His biggest obstacle is Donovan.
When Matas played 29min+
18 ppg 5 rpg, 64% TS.

Imagine if he played 33 or 34 minutes.

The most common response from Billy on why Matas gets benched is "defensive rotations" when is insane when he still gives Vucevic full starter minutes.

Donovan was tough on Matas but honestly it seemed to work. The opposite of that is Pat Williams who got entitlement minutes from day one and it seems to have ruined his career.

This where I’m at.

Buz earned his mins and his body would not have stood up to to big mins all season.

I hope Billy runs the same play for Noa. Make him earn mins. I think Noa will play a lot more G League to more depth on Bulls and he is more raw and younger than Buz.

Noa is not ready. Even if he plays hard, he still belong full year in G-league. Guy is raw as Dalen Terry

[DuckIII]

I still don’t understand why he wants to play for Lithuania over the us .

Probably because of his Lithuanian heritage and the fact his mother and father have also both represented Lithuanian internationally also.

Also, he'd likely not get a look in on the US squad.

But he is American.

He has dual citizenship.

[DuckIII]

Donovan was tough on Matas but honestly it seemed to work. The opposite of that is Pat Williams who got entitlement minutes from day one and it seems to have ruined his career.

This where I’m at.

Buz earned his mins and his body would not have stood up to to big mins all season.

I hope Billy runs the same play for Noa. Make him earn mins. I think Noa will play a lot more G League to more depth on Bulls and he is more raw and younger than Buz.

Noa is not ready. Even if he plays hard, he still belong full year in G-league. Guy is raw as Dalen Terry

Agree that Noa is not ready. Agree he should spend time on the Windy City Bulls when he’s in town with the real Bulls. Agree he’s raw.

But he’s not completely unready to contribute like Terry. Terry was raw and had zero unique physical traits. Noa will be able to contribute in a role player capacity this year due to his physical traits alone, which are special and needed on this team.

Terry provides nothing you can’t find every summer league from some guy trying to make tape to get on in the Philippines.

[rosenthall]

His biggest obstacle is Donovan.
When Matas played 29min+
18 ppg 5 rpg, 64% TS.

Imagine if he played 33 or 34 minutes.

The most common response from Billy on why Matas gets benched is "defensive rotations" when is insane when he still gives Vucevic full starter minutes.

Donovan was tough on Matas but honestly it seemed to work. The opposite of that is Pat Williams who got entitlement minutes from day one and it seems to have ruined his career.

This where I’m at.

Buz earned his mins and his body would not have stood up to to big mins all season.

I hope Billy runs the same play for Noa. Make him earn mins. I think Noa will play a lot more G League to more depth on Bulls and he is more raw and younger than Buz.

I think the bolded part is hugely underrated by casual sports fans. The vast majority of rookies don't have the physical stamina to get through an entire season unscathed, and lost time due to injury is much more impactful for young guys than established ones. In addition to lost playing time, it's usually lost time in the offseason, where most player improvement happens.

Player development is as much about optimizing for the ability to continuously work on your game in the offseason as it is about getting as many minutes as possible in your first two years.

For me, the second most encouraging sign about Matas' rookie year outside of his breakout end of year is his clean bill of health going into his second one. Coby, Lauri and Wendell all had significantly reduced value on their second contracts in part due to lost offseasons on their rookie contract which stunted their growth.

[CROBulls]

Donovan was tough on Matas but honestly it seemed to work. The opposite of that is Pat Williams who got entitlement minutes from day one and it seems to have ruined his career.

This where I’m at.

Buz earned his mins and his body would not have stood up to to big mins all season.

I hope Billy runs the same play for Noa. Make him earn mins. I think Noa will play a lot more G League to more depth on Bulls and he is more raw and younger than Buz.

I think the bolded part is hugely underrated by casual sports fans. The vast majority of rookies don't have the physical stamina to get through an entire season unscathed, and lost time due to injury is much more impactful for young guys than established ones. In addition to lost playing time, it's usually lost time in the offseason, where most player improvement happens.

Player development is as much about optimizing for the ability to continuously work on your game in the offseason as it is about getting as many minutes as possible in your first two years.

For me, the second most encouraging sign about Matas' rookie year outside of his breakout end of year is his clean bill of health going into his second one. Coby, Lauri and Wendell all had significantly reduced value on their second contracts in part due to lost offseasons on their rookie contract which stunted their growth.

Matas was never ready for big minutes like playing 35 every night from start. Guy was struggling with conditioning even during his first Summer League and it was noticable that during beggining of season that he gets gassed out quickly. Which is normal because first he was skinny, had not enough muscle on his body and second he plays always in high tempo with a lot of motor and energy to his game. Ofcourse you gonna get tired quickly. You need to learn pace yourself.

But his conditioning improved during season and specially in later part of season that was non issue. My biggest worry for Matas that he should learn to pace his game, when to play with tempo and when to slow down so he can play longer minutes. Getting to free throw line pays off for quick rest. Not every play should be going full at it, even though I will admit I do like watching him do that. Because that makes his dynamic and dangerous player and exciting to watch. Specially after years of watching logs like Vuc, and commercial for sleeping pills in Patrick Williams.

[sco]

This where I’m at.

Buz earned his mins and his body would not have stood up to to big mins all season.

I hope Billy runs the same play for Noa. Make him earn mins. I think Noa will play a lot more G League to more depth on Bulls and he is more raw and younger than Buz.

I think the bolded part is hugely underrated by casual sports fans. The vast majority of rookies don't have the physical stamina to get through an entire season unscathed, and lost time due to injury is much more impactful for young guys than established ones. In addition to lost playing time, it's usually lost time in the offseason, where most player improvement happens.

Player development is as much about optimizing for the ability to continuously work on your game in the offseason as it is about getting as many minutes as possible in your first two years.

For me, the second most encouraging sign about Matas' rookie year outside of his breakout end of year is his clean bill of health going into his second one. Coby, Lauri and Wendell all had significantly reduced value on their second contracts in part due to lost offseasons on their rookie contract which stunted their growth.

Matas was never ready for big minutes like playing 35 every night from start. Guy was struggling with conditioning even during his first Summer League and it was noticable that during beggining of season that he gets gassed out quickly. Which is normal because first he was skinny, had not enough muscle on his body and second he plays always in high tempo with a lot of motor and energy to his game. Ofcourse you gonna get tired quickly. You need to learn pace yourself.

But his conditioning improved during season and specially in later part of season that was non issue. My biggest worry for Matas that he should learn to pace his game, when to play with tempo and when to slow down so he can play longer minutes. Getting to free throw line pays off for quick rest. Not every play should be going full at it, even though I will admit I do like watching him do that. Because that makes his dynamic and dangerous player and exciting to watch. Specially after years of watching logs like Vuc, and commercial for sleeping pills in Patrick Williams.

Good point. I recall mentioning in game threads, even late in the season, how Matas would disappear in 2nd halves. Conditioning will have a big impact on his offensive contributions this season.

I also think that Billy had a good formula by really limiting Matas during the early part of the season, and making him "earn" his minutes. The thing is that most rookies don't have the conditioning to avoid the rookie wall from such a long season, so the opportunity cost of starting them out on a very restricted basis is very low because they likely can't play at their best for a whole season anyway. Looking forward to similar with Noa. I mean the dude is raw as sushi, but the thought of us striking gold 2 drafts in a row is tantalizing.

[Lexluthor]

Probably because of his Lithuanian heritage and the fact his mother and father have also both represented Lithuanian internationally also.

Also, he'd likely not get a look in on the US squad.

But he is American. Plus Lithuania is never a factor in the medal rounds in the Olympics . If he breaks out this year he could be on Team USA Radar

He's also Lithuanian.

But he is not from there . His parents are from there

[jnrjr79]

But he is American. Plus Lithuania is never a factor in the medal rounds in the Olympics . If he breaks out this year he could be on Team USA Radar

He's also Lithuanian.

But he is not from there . His parents are from there

So what. He's a Lithuanian citizen due to his ancestry. There is no argument that it's inappropriate for him to play for the team.

[DuckIII]

He's also Lithuanian.

But he is not from there . His parents are from there

So what. He's a Lithuanian citizen due to his ancestry. There is no argument that it's inappropriate for him to play for the team.

I'm convinced. Matas hates America.

[jnrjr79]

But he is not from there . His parents are from there

So what. He's a Lithuanian citizen due to his ancestry. There is no argument that it's inappropriate for him to play for the team.

I'm convinced. Matas hates America.

"Dual citizen should not play for the only one of those two countries that would give him a spot on their national team" is such a weird take I don't even know that to make of it.