Image ImageImage Image

Lauri:' I can make the comeback'

Moderators: HomoSapien, Ice Man, dougthonus, Michael Jackson, Tommy Udo 6 , kulaz3000, fleet, DASMACKDOWN, GimmeDat, RedBulls23, AshyLarrysDiaper, coldfish, Payt10

Lauri extension?

Don't want to see one happen - let him show me more first
40
33%
4 years/$40M-$50M
22
18%
4 year/$50M-$65M
28
23%
4 years/$65M-$80M
22
18%
4 years/$80M+
6
5%
Other (explain)
4
3%
 
Total votes: 122

sami71
Junior
Posts: 367
And1: 253
Joined: Jun 27, 2017
 

Re: Lauri:' I can make the comeback' 

Post#1041 » by sami71 » Tue Dec 29, 2020 3:11 pm

dougthonus wrote:
kapo wrote:I understand the poor and limited defense now at the moment but why do you think it never changes? Yes he possibly never be a great rim protector or otherwise superb in the defense. At the moment Lauri can recognize the need for help defense time to time. Now he needs to recognize and react to it just more often. At the moment in my opinion Lauri is not pushed around in the paint so easily, like in the rookie season, it is more about skill to defend post plays, about positioning and timing. I think Lauri has good hands in D time to time, has to learn to use them more often and in different situations. Even reach can be learned to do better without miraculously growing longer hands. These thing can be learned. Lauri learned clearly faster stroke in the summer which is no easy task to do. So I believe Lauri can learn other things as well if he just puts hes mind to it. It is hard to learn multiple things in the same time but one thing at the time.


Just think he lacks the physicals necessary to ever be above average. He's too weak to bang with centers, not laterally fast enough to stay with most players, not long enough to really be a big shot blocking threat. He doesn't have great instincts to defend, and maybe those can improve, but its been three years, you have to expect improvement here is somewhat limited and based on the physicals, even strong improvement leaves him as average.

His physical measurements are what they are. He has very average length compared to his height due to narrow shoulders and long neck. Most of his peers have exceptional attributes. EDIT: The obvious thing is obvious - missed his average arm length.

But there is the other side of the coin as well. Lauri is from a place with a very thin basketball culture. I think his help defense is still pretty bad but at least Donovan has had him starting to try. Perhaps everyone Lauri included has been concentrating on his shortcomings on offense, like the lack of post play or streaky shooting too much. Some of his flaws on defense really can't be fixed anymore, but others are quite easy to fix if we assume he has the work ethic, which I personally think he does. He lacks some basic tutoring due to his background. Sorry fellow Finns, just my opinion here.

As always there is the flip side for each coin. While our BB culture is still thin although growing, Finns usually play bigger than they are in sports. Soft euro stereotype does not necessarily have to be Lauri, Finns usually are not soft. He just needs to be taught how to bang under the basket f.ex.
chefo
Bench Warmer
Posts: 1,285
And1: 2,427
Joined: Apr 29, 2009

Re: Lauri:' I can make the comeback' 

Post#1042 » by chefo » Tue Dec 29, 2020 3:15 pm

Just as a quick reminder about Lauri's lack of defensive potential:

Let's do a hypothetical:

Early twenties payer, still on a rookie deal:

20 ppg, 8 rpg, 38% from 3 on 8 attempts, 63-65% TS, all of that in 30mpg or thereabouts.

Let's assume that said player is an average man-to-man defender (defined as he might get scored on but won't get abused) and a poor to average help defender (defined as he'll have some good possessions and just as many or more bad ones).

Forget about height, or what position he plays, or whatever. How much is that player worth? What's his likely market value?

You'll have a hard time convincing me that there's not a SINGLE team that won't throw a rookie max at said player.

You're not getting the above for $20M, it's just not going to happen. There'll be at least one team that will think that if you bump his usage by 15-20%, they'll have a Dirk-light and a perennial all-star. All-stars on rookie max deals are a value in today's NBA, given how much their older peers make.

In other words, if Lauri keeps playing similarly to how he started the season, even if he cools off his shooting some over the year, the Bulls will have to make a pretty tough decision--not just because of Lauri, but because Zach is coming up for his 35+ contract. And, as we can see, with these two as your best players making 60+/year, you're on the bullet train to nowhere.

Now, Zach may look better to the eye-test because he's a vastly more fluid athlete, but if early-season Lauri is for real, that's both a more valuable and better player in a team context than Zach. And that comes from somebody who's really, really hoping that Coach D can get through to Zach and cure him of worst tendencies.
cjbulls
Analyst
Posts: 3,584
And1: 1,301
Joined: Jun 26, 2018

Re: Lauri:' I can make the comeback' 

Post#1043 » by cjbulls » Tue Dec 29, 2020 3:47 pm

chefo wrote:Just as a quick reminder about Lauri's lack of defensive potential:

Let's do a hypothetical:

Early twenties payer, still on a rookie deal:

20 ppg, 8 rpg, 38% from 3 on 8 attempts, 63-65% TS, all of that in 30mpg or thereabouts.

Let's assume that said player is an average man-to-man defender (defined as he might get scored on but won't get abused) and a poor to average help defender (defined as he'll have some good possessions and just as many or more bad ones).

Forget about height, or what position he plays, or whatever. How much is that player worth? What's his likely market value?

You'll have a hard time convincing me that there's not a SINGLE team that won't throw a rookie max at said player.

You're not getting the above for $20M, it's just not going to happen. There'll be at least one team that will think that if you bump his usage by 15-20%, they'll have a Dirk-light and a perennial all-star. All-stars on rookie max deals are a value in today's NBA, given how much their older peers make.

In other words, if Lauri keeps playing similarly to how he started the season, even if he cools off his shooting some over the year, the Bulls will have to make a pretty tough decision--not just because of Lauri, but because Zach is coming up for his 35+ contract. And, as we can see, with these two as your best players making 60+/year, you're on the bullet train to nowhere.

Now, Zach may look better to the eye-test because he's a vastly more fluid athlete, but if early-season Lauri is for real, that's both a more valuable and better player in a team context than Zach. And that comes from somebody who's really, really hoping that Coach D can get through to Zach and cure him of worst tendencies.


The truth is somewhere in the middle. Teams will note he did this in a bad team, but like his potential, particularly teams that use a more traditional non-shooting defensive center.

The idea no one will throw a max is premature, especially given the current FA environment. But it’s still quite unlikely. Lauri would need to exceed these numbers at least in terms of pure points while retaining good efficiency, which remains a question mark. Plus, the amount of teams with full max money (3-4) is more limited than teams with mid-20M money that approaches the max (7-8 more).

Either way, his price is now likely 20M and rising. The Bulls could have had him for 15-17 and retained a positive asset going forward. But the new FO has seemingly made quite a few missteps already
User avatar
dougthonus
Senior Mod - Bulls
Senior Mod - Bulls
Posts: 58,889
And1: 18,974
Joined: Dec 22, 2004
Contact:
 

Re: Lauri:' I can make the comeback' 

Post#1044 » by dougthonus » Tue Dec 29, 2020 4:21 pm

sami71 wrote:His physical measurements are what they are. He has very average length compared to his height due to narrow shoulders and long neck. Most of his peers have exceptional attributes. EDIT: The obvious thing is obvious - missed his average arm length.

But there is the other side of the coin as well. Lauri is from a place with a very thin basketball culture. I think his help defense is still pretty bad but at least Donovan has had him starting to try. Perhaps everyone Lauri included has been concentrating on his shortcomings on offense, like the lack of post play or streaky shooting too much. Some of his flaws on defense really can't be fixed anymore, but others are quite easy to fix if we assume he has the work ethic, which I personally think he does. He lacks some basic tutoring due to his background. Sorry fellow Finns, just my opinion here.

As always there is the flip side for each coin. While our BB culture is still thin although growing, Finns usually play bigger than they are in sports. Soft euro stereotype does not necessarily have to be Lauri, Finns usually are not soft. He just needs to be taught how to bang under the basket f.ex.


Part of it is simply the changing culture of the NBA. Teams are playing much smaller and more athletic now. Stylistically, Lauri would have been much better off in the NBA of 15-20 years ago.

I do think he can improve some of those things you mention over time. The hope, for me anyway, is that he becomes a very smart defender and then the physicals matter less, but they will probably always matter a good amount.
PhilLeotardo
Junior
Posts: 347
And1: 220
Joined: Sep 23, 2020

Re: Lauri:' I can make the comeback' 

Post#1045 » by PhilLeotardo » Tue Dec 29, 2020 4:22 pm

Lol AKEVS haven’t made one single misstep thus far. They’ve played everything perfectly. Markkanen stinks: he’s your typical stretch 4 euro who is totally unequipped to play defense. Everyone should’ve been elated when they refused to lock him up, and I sincerely hope he gets traded, no matter how many of his empty stats he chucks up over the course of this season
User avatar
dougthonus
Senior Mod - Bulls
Senior Mod - Bulls
Posts: 58,889
And1: 18,974
Joined: Dec 22, 2004
Contact:
 

Re: Lauri:' I can make the comeback' 

Post#1046 » by dougthonus » Tue Dec 29, 2020 4:31 pm

chefo wrote:Just as a quick reminder about Lauri's lack of defensive potential:

Let's do a hypothetical:

Early twenties payer, still on a rookie deal:

20 ppg, 8 rpg, 38% from 3 on 8 attempts, 63-65% TS, all of that in 30mpg or thereabouts.

Let's assume that said player is an average man-to-man defender (defined as he might get scored on but won't get abused) and a poor to average help defender (defined as he'll have some good possessions and just as many or more bad ones).

Forget about height, or what position he plays, or whatever. How much is that player worth? What's his likely market value?

You'll have a hard time convincing me that there's not a SINGLE team that won't throw a rookie max at said player.

You're not getting the above for $20M, it's just not going to happen. There'll be at least one team that will think that if you bump his usage by 15-20%, they'll have a Dirk-light and a perennial all-star. All-stars on rookie max deals are a value in today's NBA, given how much their older peers make.

In other words, if Lauri keeps playing similarly to how he started the season, even if he cools off his shooting some over the year, the Bulls will have to make a pretty tough decision--not just because of Lauri, but because Zach is coming up for his 35+ contract. And, as we can see, with these two as your best players making 60+/year, you're on the bullet train to nowhere.

Now, Zach may look better to the eye-test because he's a vastly more fluid athlete, but if early-season Lauri is for real, that's both a more valuable and better player in a team context than Zach. And that comes from somebody who's really, really hoping that Coach D can get through to Zach and cure him of worst tendencies.


I agree that if Lauri keeps up at this pace, he has an excellent chance to get a max deal. In your description though, he isn't an average defender, he is well below average, but it wouldn't matter as some team would still probably pay him.

If Lauri can keep this up, the Bulls will regret not extending him for whatever that offer was most likely. Even if they wanted to use him as a trade chip.

The big question is will Lauri keep this up. We'll find out over time of course, I'm rooting for him to keep playing well, whether the Bulls keep him or not, it is in their best interest for him to look as good as possible (as with every player), but I'm pretty skeptical that this three game burst is going to be a new norm for a few reasons.

Two of the three teams we played were awful defensively, in his best game (against GS), the team was uniquely set up to be awful at defending Lauri as they went ultra small most of the game. Lauri did a great job of forcing the issue and going inside and making him pay. Not sure that this is a good game to base much on though, its such a unique opponent, especially with their current injuries.

His worst game (Pacers) came against a decent defensive team that had someone they could put on him. The 3rd game (Hawks) where he also played well above average are another very poor defensive team.

The other thing is so far, Lauri is shooting very well, but so far virtually all of his shots are wide, wide open. That's great with his improvement, because he had those looks for most of last year and didn't shoot well, and if he can knock them down it is awesome and a big improvement. However, if he continues torching teams from three rather than being simply average, those looks will start to disappear as the scouting report changes.

Either way, with all that said, Lauri is looking great right now, I hope he can keep it up.
ZOMG
Lead Assistant
Posts: 5,434
And1: 3,269
Joined: Dec 31, 2013

Re: Lauri:' I can make the comeback' 

Post#1047 » by ZOMG » Tue Dec 29, 2020 4:51 pm

cjbulls wrote:The truth is somewhere in the middle. Teams will note he did this in a bad team, but like his potential, particularly teams that use a more traditional non-shooting defensive center.


The old "he did this in a bad team / he did this playing with superstars" thing is like a Rorsach test - you see what you're inclined to see. IMO it's not enough in itself to determine the worth of a player's individual accomplishments.

Both bad teams AND superstar teams can have all kinds of effects on a single player. For instance, a bad team might be dominated by two ballhogs with sky high usage, leaving little space for other guys to improve their stats. OR it might be a collection of unselfish but very inexperienced dudes who share the ball but can't win yet.

IMO it's a bigger red flag if you can't individually succeed in the latter team.
User avatar
FranchisePlayer
Sixth Man
Posts: 1,763
And1: 598
Joined: Oct 25, 2019
 

Re: Lauri:' I can make the comeback' 

Post#1048 » by FranchisePlayer » Tue Dec 29, 2020 4:58 pm

dougthonus wrote:
FranchisePlayer wrote:I believe many felt that way here when Butler was on trade block or at least fans posted here accordingly.


The debate with Butler was whether he was worth a supermax contract. That's not really an adequate comparison, but the ancedote is loaded because Butler went on to be a top 12 player and the Bulls screwed up their rebuild after trading for Butler. If they had tanked 1 game harder, they'd have had Doncic, Trae, or JJJ which all would have been much better cornerstones than Carter, whom they got in the same draft.

For some reason, the handling of Lauri seems to be heading (again) in that direction. Is it really always the player and other teams that are making mistakes and not Chicago? (rhetorical question)


Comparing Lauri to Ben Gordon is probably a more apt comparison. A guy who only plays one side of the ball, only scores, adds little else to the offense and is well below a max level player. However, you wouldn't like that comparison because Ben Gordon went on to be a super bust on his next deal.

The Gordon and Butler comparisons are both worthless though. Lauri is Lauri. He's not going to turn it into a big mistake because Jimmy Butler did, he's not going to be a failure because Ben Gordon was. He's going to do whatever he does based on his abilities. Also, the fact the Bulls are under the cap and really, really bad are both reasons why keeping Lauri makes less sense than it would in other circumstances.

If the Bulls were the 7th seed and over the cap, the decision would be Lauri or nothing. Now the decision is continue to try to keep building away from being potentially the worst team in the NBA with Lauri or replace Lauri with any other FA (both at market value deals) or use the money to facilitate trades / other things. Lauri is now effectively, unless he gives Chicago a big discount, which he shouldn't do and obviously didn't do or there would have been an extension already, no more or less attractive option than any other market value player.

Mathematically, you are trying to get most value per dollar, and so the best players in FA will be those that outperform their contracts by the largest amounts. The odds of that aren't really particularly better for one guy than the next unless he makes an unexpected leap forward. If Lauri signs for 20m per year and then becomes a supermax player, he could be such a guy. If he signs for 20m per year and becomes a bench stretch four then he's obviously not, but whatever he signs for will already be whatever the most optimistic team with cap room thinks he will be. This is why FA signings are usually bad unless they are max players, because the money given out is by the most hopeful team available rather than the median opinion of their abilities (which is a problem regardless of whom we use our money on).


Thanks, I appreciate you effort here! It will be really interesting to see how this all plays out.

I don't see why Lauri would give that discount if the extension talks left a bad taste in his mouth and he's not happy about the role he's been given. Well, by all accounts he seems to be happier with Donovan at helm so that shouldn't be the case. Although I wouldn't think he was happy against GSW about having a strong shooting night but finishing only with 13 FGA. He might feel anxious to see what it's like to play in a contender / playoff team, maybe not as the #1 option but anyways more than a sideshow bob standing behind the arc, waiting for two guards to deliberate what to do with the ball. I wonder how much NBA players watch other teams' games? He must have seen a whole lot of games, at least enough to realize that you can play the game in a different way.

On the other hand, I get a feeling he's pretty down-to-earth person and what you see and hear about him is what you get. Maybe not that common among NBA players... He's said numerous times he's happy here and wouldn't want to move. He's obviously personally enjoyed the last three games so I guess his hopes for the future have increased, a lot.

Anyways, I bet it's not the money but other elements which will decide where Markkanen plays next season.
MrSparkle wrote:I don't see a scenario here or there where Lauri becomes the "7-pick we thought he could be." If you remove his 3P ability, he's worse than Felicio by a mile.

12/2/2022
I like the quote- it makes me chuckle. And it was/is pretty much true.
User avatar
FranchisePlayer
Sixth Man
Posts: 1,763
And1: 598
Joined: Oct 25, 2019
 

Re: Lauri:' I can make the comeback' 

Post#1049 » by FranchisePlayer » Tue Dec 29, 2020 5:13 pm

dougthonus wrote:
chefo wrote:Just as a quick reminder about Lauri's lack of defensive potential:

Let's do a hypothetical:

Early twenties payer, still on a rookie deal:

20 ppg, 8 rpg, 38% from 3 on 8 attempts, 63-65% TS, all of that in 30mpg or thereabouts.

Let's assume that said player is an average man-to-man defender (defined as he might get scored on but won't get abused) and a poor to average help defender (defined as he'll have some good possessions and just as many or more bad ones).

Forget about height, or what position he plays, or whatever. How much is that player worth? What's his likely market value?

You'll have a hard time convincing me that there's not a SINGLE team that won't throw a rookie max at said player.

You're not getting the above for $20M, it's just not going to happen. There'll be at least one team that will think that if you bump his usage by 15-20%, they'll have a Dirk-light and a perennial all-star. All-stars on rookie max deals are a value in today's NBA, given how much their older peers make.

In other words, if Lauri keeps playing similarly to how he started the season, even if he cools off his shooting some over the year, the Bulls will have to make a pretty tough decision--not just because of Lauri, but because Zach is coming up for his 35+ contract. And, as we can see, with these two as your best players making 60+/year, you're on the bullet train to nowhere.

Now, Zach may look better to the eye-test because he's a vastly more fluid athlete, but if early-season Lauri is for real, that's both a more valuable and better player in a team context than Zach. And that comes from somebody who's really, really hoping that Coach D can get through to Zach and cure him of worst tendencies.


I agree that if Lauri keeps up at this pace, he has an excellent chance to get a max deal. In your description though, he isn't an average defender, he is well below average, but it wouldn't matter as some team would still probably pay him.

If Lauri can keep this up, the Bulls will regret not extending him for whatever that offer was most likely. Even if they wanted to use him as a trade chip.

The big question is will Lauri keep this up. We'll find out over time of course, I'm rooting for him to keep playing well, whether the Bulls keep him or not, it is in their best interest for him to look as good as possible (as with every player), but I'm pretty skeptical that this three game burst is going to be a new norm for a few reasons.

Two of the three teams we played were awful defensively, in his best game (against GS), the team was uniquely set up to be awful at defending Lauri as they went ultra small most of the game. Lauri did a great job of forcing the issue and going inside and making him pay. Not sure that this is a good game to base much on though, its such a unique opponent, especially with their current injuries.

His worst game (Pacers) came against a decent defensive team that had someone they could put on him. The 3rd game (Hawks) where he also played well above average are another very poor defensive team.

The other thing is so far, Lauri is shooting very well, but so far virtually all of his shots are wide, wide open. That's great with his improvement, because he had those looks for most of last year and didn't shoot well, and if he can knock them down it is awesome and a big improvement. However, if he continues torching teams from three rather than being simply average, those looks will start to disappear as the scouting report changes.

Either way, with all that said, Lauri is looking great right now, I hope he can keep it up.


I probably wouldn't have changed a dot although I didn't agree on every point. Nevertheless, very enjoyable reading. Have you ever worked as a diplomat or novelist? Do try! However, I still think this thread is done, stick a fork in it and move on to the next one... :)
MrSparkle wrote:I don't see a scenario here or there where Lauri becomes the "7-pick we thought he could be." If you remove his 3P ability, he's worse than Felicio by a mile.

12/2/2022
I like the quote- it makes me chuckle. And it was/is pretty much true.
cjbulls
Analyst
Posts: 3,584
And1: 1,301
Joined: Jun 26, 2018

Re: Lauri:' I can make the comeback' 

Post#1050 » by cjbulls » Tue Dec 29, 2020 5:23 pm

PhilLeotardo wrote:Lol AKEVS haven’t made one single misstep thus far. They’ve played everything perfectly. Markkanen stinks: he’s your typical stretch 4 euro who is totally unequipped to play defense. Everyone should’ve been elated when they refused to lock him up, and I sincerely hope he gets traded, no matter how many of his empty stats he chucks up over the course of this season


Worst record in the league with the second worst point differential. Just like they drew it up, huh?
cjbulls
Analyst
Posts: 3,584
And1: 1,301
Joined: Jun 26, 2018

Re: Lauri:' I can make the comeback' 

Post#1051 » by cjbulls » Tue Dec 29, 2020 5:34 pm

ZOMG wrote:
cjbulls wrote:The truth is somewhere in the middle. Teams will note he did this in a bad team, but like his potential, particularly teams that use a more traditional non-shooting defensive center.


The old "he did this in a bad team / he did this playing with superstars" thing is like a Rorsach test - you see what you're inclined to see. IMO it's not enough in itself to determine the worth of a player's individual accomplishments.

Both bad teams AND superstar teams can have all kinds of effects on a single player. For instance, a bad team might be dominated by two ballhogs with sky high usage, leaving little space for other guys to improve their stats. OR it might be a collection of unselfish but very inexperienced dudes who share the ball but can't win yet.

IMO it's a bigger red flag if you can't individually succeed in the latter team.


No it isn’t. Players on good teams have to sacrifice pieces of their game, particularly scoring, which is Lauri’s whole thing. And what teams are going to evaluate when it’s contract time.

It works both ways too though. Evaluations will account for his youth and how scoring/efficiency should rise from experience. And smart teams will see that Lauri is not a creator and put up these numbers without a point guard or system to put him in the best positions.

But the biggest factor affecting his stats will be putting your faith in a guy who only produced on bad teams. This is a correct concern btw. There is a laundry list of guys who put up big numbers on bad teams who struggled to re-create those numbers on a good team. The reverse is much more rare.
cjbulls
Analyst
Posts: 3,584
And1: 1,301
Joined: Jun 26, 2018

Re: Lauri:' I can make the comeback' 

Post#1052 » by cjbulls » Tue Dec 29, 2020 5:35 pm

FranchisePlayer wrote:
dougthonus wrote:
chefo wrote:Just as a quick reminder about Lauri's lack of defensive potential:

Let's do a hypothetical:

Early twenties payer, still on a rookie deal:

20 ppg, 8 rpg, 38% from 3 on 8 attempts, 63-65% TS, all of that in 30mpg or thereabouts.

Let's assume that said player is an average man-to-man defender (defined as he might get scored on but won't get abused) and a poor to average help defender (defined as he'll have some good possessions and just as many or more bad ones).

Forget about height, or what position he plays, or whatever. How much is that player worth? What's his likely market value?

You'll have a hard time convincing me that there's not a SINGLE team that won't throw a rookie max at said player.

You're not getting the above for $20M, it's just not going to happen. There'll be at least one team that will think that if you bump his usage by 15-20%, they'll have a Dirk-light and a perennial all-star. All-stars on rookie max deals are a value in today's NBA, given how much their older peers make.

In other words, if Lauri keeps playing similarly to how he started the season, even if he cools off his shooting some over the year, the Bulls will have to make a pretty tough decision--not just because of Lauri, but because Zach is coming up for his 35+ contract. And, as we can see, with these two as your best players making 60+/year, you're on the bullet train to nowhere.

Now, Zach may look better to the eye-test because he's a vastly more fluid athlete, but if early-season Lauri is for real, that's both a more valuable and better player in a team context than Zach. And that comes from somebody who's really, really hoping that Coach D can get through to Zach and cure him of worst tendencies.


I agree that if Lauri keeps up at this pace, he has an excellent chance to get a max deal. In your description though, he isn't an average defender, he is well below average, but it wouldn't matter as some team would still probably pay him.

If Lauri can keep this up, the Bulls will regret not extending him for whatever that offer was most likely. Even if they wanted to use him as a trade chip.

The big question is will Lauri keep this up. We'll find out over time of course, I'm rooting for him to keep playing well, whether the Bulls keep him or not, it is in their best interest for him to look as good as possible (as with every player), but I'm pretty skeptical that this three game burst is going to be a new norm for a few reasons.

Two of the three teams we played were awful defensively, in his best game (against GS), the team was uniquely set up to be awful at defending Lauri as they went ultra small most of the game. Lauri did a great job of forcing the issue and going inside and making him pay. Not sure that this is a good game to base much on though, its such a unique opponent, especially with their current injuries.

His worst game (Pacers) came against a decent defensive team that had someone they could put on him. The 3rd game (Hawks) where he also played well above average are another very poor defensive team.

The other thing is so far, Lauri is shooting very well, but so far virtually all of his shots are wide, wide open. That's great with his improvement, because he had those looks for most of last year and didn't shoot well, and if he can knock them down it is awesome and a big improvement. However, if he continues torching teams from three rather than being simply average, those looks will start to disappear as the scouting report changes.

Either way, with all that said, Lauri is looking great right now, I hope he can keep it up.


I probably wouldn't have changed a dot although I didn't agree on every point. Nevertheless, very enjoyable reading. Have you ever worked as a diplomat or novelist? Do try! However, I still think this thread is done, stick a fork in it and move on to the next one... :)


Don’t be too complimentary, he had Lauri roughly equal to Bobby Portis a few pages back. :D
sco
RealGM
Posts: 27,440
And1: 9,226
Joined: Sep 22, 2003
Location: Virtually Everywhere!

Re: Lauri:' I can make the comeback' 

Post#1053 » by sco » Tue Dec 29, 2020 6:15 pm

Any update on his calf contusion? Was that all it was? Did they confirm day-to-day?
:clap:
User avatar
dougthonus
Senior Mod - Bulls
Senior Mod - Bulls
Posts: 58,889
And1: 18,974
Joined: Dec 22, 2004
Contact:
 

Re: Lauri:' I can make the comeback' 

Post#1054 » by dougthonus » Tue Dec 29, 2020 6:16 pm

FranchisePlayer wrote:I probably wouldn't have changed a dot although I didn't agree on every point. Nevertheless, very enjoyable reading. Have you ever worked as a diplomat or novelist? Do try! However, I still think this thread is done, stick a fork in it and move on to the next one... :)


ROFL, funny story, I met my wife online, and in my first real note to her after we did the basic liking of photos and small talk, she asked if I had a ghost writer write it for me :rofl:

Whether we keep this thread open or not, I'm sure Lauri will be a topic all season long as he continues to impress or ends up regressing, close this one and a new one will rise in its place.
User avatar
dougthonus
Senior Mod - Bulls
Senior Mod - Bulls
Posts: 58,889
And1: 18,974
Joined: Dec 22, 2004
Contact:
 

Re: Lauri:' I can make the comeback' 

Post#1055 » by dougthonus » Tue Dec 29, 2020 6:20 pm

FranchisePlayer wrote:Thanks, I appreciate you effort here! It will be really interesting to see how this all plays out.

I don't see why Lauri would give that discount if the extension talks left a bad taste in his mouth and he's not happy about the role he's been given. Well, by all accounts he seems to be happier with Donovan at helm so that shouldn't be the case. Although I wouldn't think he was happy against GSW about having a strong shooting night but finishing only with 13 FGA. He might feel anxious to see what it's like to play in a contender / playoff team, maybe not as the #1 option but anyways more than a sideshow bob standing behind the arc, waiting for two guards to deliberate what to do with the ball. I wonder how much NBA players watch other teams' games? He must have seen a whole lot of games, at least enough to realize that you can play the game in a different way.

On the other hand, I get a feeling he's pretty down-to-earth person and what you see and hear about him is what you get. Maybe not that common among NBA players... He's said numerous times he's happy here and wouldn't want to move. He's obviously personally enjoyed the last three games so I guess his hopes for the future have increased, a lot.

Anyways, I bet it's not the money but other elements which will decide where Markkanen plays next season.


I think this is a pretty standard formula for most players looking for their 1st big deal:
1: Money
2: Opportunity
3: Chance to win
4: Desirability of city

You get to your 2nd or 3rd deal and sometimes money moves down on that list, especially if you were richly rewarded the first deal or two, but otherwise, it is almost always the top.

I don't know Lauri. I don't know if he's more down to Earth or if his values are different based on his upbringing, but he will have an agent that will want to maximize his value. I'd be surprised if he gos awy.
User avatar
ThisGuyFawkes
Analyst
Posts: 3,692
And1: 1,992
Joined: Jan 30, 2008
Location: Where the sugar cane grows taller than the God we once believed in
   

Re: Lauri:' I can make the comeback' 

Post#1056 » by ThisGuyFawkes » Tue Dec 29, 2020 6:21 pm

It's looking like Lauri will be shooting over 40% on his 3pta this season, which is fantastic. He's also been aggressive in driving to the hoop and drawing fouls and/or finishing, which has showed me that he can create a little bit for himself. The next step would be to get his eyes up and look for open cutters/shooters during those drives to the basket.

I feel like his defense has improved slightly. He's had a few really nice defensive stops near the basket, but there's still a lot of work to be done there. As many have said before, he doesn't possess the length or athleticism to become an elite rim protector, but I think he can be solid. And that should be more than enough if he's scoring 20ppg on 50/40/80.

He's not a max player yet, but if he can add another dimension, such as finding open players on his drives, then I think he's worth it. He's only 23 and seems to have a good work ethic so I don't feel like these goals are unrealistic.
User avatar
FranchisePlayer
Sixth Man
Posts: 1,763
And1: 598
Joined: Oct 25, 2019
 

Re: Lauri:' I can make the comeback' 

Post#1057 » by FranchisePlayer » Tue Dec 29, 2020 6:26 pm

cjbulls wrote:
FranchisePlayer wrote:
dougthonus wrote:
I agree that if Lauri keeps up at this pace, he has an excellent chance to get a max deal. In your description though, he isn't an average defender, he is well below average, but it wouldn't matter as some team would still probably pay him.

If Lauri can keep this up, the Bulls will regret not extending him for whatever that offer was most likely. Even if they wanted to use him as a trade chip.

The big question is will Lauri keep this up. We'll find out over time of course, I'm rooting for him to keep playing well, whether the Bulls keep him or not, it is in their best interest for him to look as good as possible (as with every player), but I'm pretty skeptical that this three game burst is going to be a new norm for a few reasons.

Two of the three teams we played were awful defensively, in his best game (against GS), the team was uniquely set up to be awful at defending Lauri as they went ultra small most of the game. Lauri did a great job of forcing the issue and going inside and making him pay. Not sure that this is a good game to base much on though, its such a unique opponent, especially with their current injuries.

His worst game (Pacers) came against a decent defensive team that had someone they could put on him. The 3rd game (Hawks) where he also played well above average are another very poor defensive team.

The other thing is so far, Lauri is shooting very well, but so far virtually all of his shots are wide, wide open. That's great with his improvement, because he had those looks for most of last year and didn't shoot well, and if he can knock them down it is awesome and a big improvement. However, if he continues torching teams from three rather than being simply average, those looks will start to disappear as the scouting report changes.

Either way, with all that said, Lauri is looking great right now, I hope he can keep it up.


I probably wouldn't have changed a dot although I didn't agree on every point. Nevertheless, very enjoyable reading. Have you ever worked as a diplomat or novelist? Do try! However, I still think this thread is done, stick a fork in it and move on to the next one... :)


Don’t be too complimentary, he had Lauri roughly equal to Bobby Portis a few pages back. :D


Well, we all do mistakes. :wink: Seriously, I don't mind opposite opinions when premises are followed by (mature) arguments.

That was a high standard post compared to another one where a poster tried to convince me with a clip of The Simpsons why Lauri isn't any good.
MrSparkle wrote:I don't see a scenario here or there where Lauri becomes the "7-pick we thought he could be." If you remove his 3P ability, he's worse than Felicio by a mile.

12/2/2022
I like the quote- it makes me chuckle. And it was/is pretty much true.
User avatar
FranchisePlayer
Sixth Man
Posts: 1,763
And1: 598
Joined: Oct 25, 2019
 

Re: Lauri:' I can make the comeback' 

Post#1058 » by FranchisePlayer » Tue Dec 29, 2020 6:31 pm

dougthonus wrote:
FranchisePlayer wrote:I probably wouldn't have changed a dot although I didn't agree on every point. Nevertheless, very enjoyable reading. Have you ever worked as a diplomat or novelist? Do try! However, I still think this thread is done, stick a fork in it and move on to the next one... :)


ROFL, funny story, I met my wife online, and in my first real note to her after we did the basic liking of photos and small talk, she asked if I had a ghost writer write it for me :rofl:

Whether we keep this thread open or not, I'm sure Lauri will be a topic all season long as he continues to impress or ends up regressing, close this one and a new one will rise in its place.


Ouch... well, happily ever after!

Oh I do hope there will be another thread of him, I probably start one by myself. I just think this particulr has gone somewhat off rails and maybe a more neutral title alone could do some good.
MrSparkle wrote:I don't see a scenario here or there where Lauri becomes the "7-pick we thought he could be." If you remove his 3P ability, he's worse than Felicio by a mile.

12/2/2022
I like the quote- it makes me chuckle. And it was/is pretty much true.
User avatar
FranchisePlayer
Sixth Man
Posts: 1,763
And1: 598
Joined: Oct 25, 2019
 

Re: Lauri:' I can make the comeback' 

Post#1059 » by FranchisePlayer » Tue Dec 29, 2020 6:45 pm

dougthonus wrote:
FranchisePlayer wrote:Thanks, I appreciate you effort here! It will be really interesting to see how this all plays out.

I don't see why Lauri would give that discount if the extension talks left a bad taste in his mouth and he's not happy about the role he's been given. Well, by all accounts he seems to be happier with Donovan at helm so that shouldn't be the case. Although I wouldn't think he was happy against GSW about having a strong shooting night but finishing only with 13 FGA. He might feel anxious to see what it's like to play in a contender / playoff team, maybe not as the #1 option but anyways more than a sideshow bob standing behind the arc, waiting for two guards to deliberate what to do with the ball. I wonder how much NBA players watch other teams' games? He must have seen a whole lot of games, at least enough to realize that you can play the game in a different way.

On the other hand, I get a feeling he's pretty down-to-earth person and what you see and hear about him is what you get. Maybe not that common among NBA players... He's said numerous times he's happy here and wouldn't want to move. He's obviously personally enjoyed the last three games so I guess his hopes for the future have increased, a lot.

Anyways, I bet it's not the money but other elements which will decide where Markkanen plays next season.


I think this is a pretty standard formula for most players looking for their 1st big deal:
1: Money
2: Opportunity
3: Chance to win
4: Desirability of city

You get to your 2nd or 3rd deal and sometimes money moves down on that list, especially if you were richly rewarded the first deal or two, but otherwise, it is almost always the top.

I don't know Lauri. I don't know if he's more down to Earth or if his values are different based on his upbringing, but he will have an agent that will want to maximize his value. I'd be surprised if he gos awy.


I meant from teams' point of view, too. I reckon if he keeps up this level, teams won't even have the slightest hesitation to throw max at him. So there might be other tangibles involved especially if the Bulls were to try and shop him before the trade deadline. Opportunity, chance to win, location, role in the team, who is the head coach etc.

Obviously I'm a big Lauri supporter but even I acknowledge that if our offense isn't designed to provide him with 20 looks per game than what's the point having him? Either you pay him to be you go-to scorer or the other one of them and get yourself a decent PG or you maximize his trade value and wish him the best for the future.
MrSparkle wrote:I don't see a scenario here or there where Lauri becomes the "7-pick we thought he could be." If you remove his 3P ability, he's worse than Felicio by a mile.

12/2/2022
I like the quote- it makes me chuckle. And it was/is pretty much true.
User avatar
TheSuzerain
RealGM
Posts: 17,401
And1: 11,410
Joined: Mar 29, 2012

Re: Lauri:' I can make the comeback' 

Post#1060 » by TheSuzerain » Tue Dec 29, 2020 8:21 pm

This is why we need to put the "Coby starting at PG" hair-brained scheme back on the shelf.

Play Sato or Denzel at that spot and let's showcase Lauri and Zach.

Return to Chicago Bulls