Josh Giddey - Conundrum Killer

[Ice Man]

Yes Flaggs BPM look way better than Banchero's, but it's lower than plenty of #1 picks:

Flagg - 15.9
Zion - 20.1
AD - 17.2

A couple of caveats -

1) By class/age, Flagg is a high school senior
2) You can run an offense through Flagg

The second point is the critical one for me. As a college player, Flagg averages 5.2 assists per 40, whereas Zion, Blake Griffin, and AD were at 2.7, 2.6, and 1.6 respectively. That puts Flagg in a different category than them, with LeBron, Tatum, Butler and other point forwards, rather than in the category of power players like Zion, Blake, and AD. Flagg is also shooting 37.5% on 3s, which is above what any of those guys did while in college -- and 3s are a BIG deal these days.

I think that the main argument against Flagg is that he's white and people don't trust white forwards as prospects - Bargs, Laettner, Danny Ferry, Adam Morrison, Keith van Horn, etc. It's hard for me to make the comparison to those players, it's been a long time, but I think Cooper's power/explosiveness is at a different level than theirs.

[PJSteven22]

Not to derail the thread but Flagg reminds me of 3 players AK47, Tatum and Siakim

[sco]

Not to derail the thread but Flagg reminds me of 3 players AK47, Tatum and Siakim

Dude, this thread is so far off the rails, I can't even see them anymore. You're good.

[Dan Z]

He should be a high school senior right now and it scoring 20 ppg and you think he is an average #1 pick?

Read on Twitter

College stats mean virtually nothing to me. Seen way too many guys score big in college and be absolutely nothing in the league. I go by eye test for draftees and while I can see why people say he should be the #1 overall pick, I think he's a lot closer to Andrea Bargnani than Shaquille O'Neal.

This a guy that is the best college player and he literally LeBrons age as a High School Senior. Just because one guy doesn’t pan out doesn’t mean you dismiss the rest.

I'll add that if the Bulls get Flagg then that's a great situation to be in regardless of how anyone currently feels about him. His potential is better than anyone the Bulls have had in a long time.

[League Circles]

Sounds about right, Shaq and Bargnani were just two names that came to mind, but fwiw, I project Flagg as between AD and Griffin, which is a good all star but hardly a title-driving superstar. Which is fine btw - I think we should try to build a team that can win despite not having a true superstar, as I think those are too rare and unrealistic to acquire. As of now I'd be fine with Flagg at #1 but I just don't expect him to ever be like a top 5 NBA player. If I'm correct, that makes roster fit very important, not in the sense of us drafting for need with our current roster, but just in the sense of "how do we go from Flagg at #1 overall to an elite 5 man unit?"

I think the vast majority of guys who end up top 5 players are guys you don't expect to be top 5 players going in. I mean over the last say 30 years is that list something like: Shaq, LeBron, Wemby? I think you look at a guy whom you think has star potential then hope he's just even better than you thought.

I think you're probably right that they're hard to predict and that the list is short, but still most of the guys that look like Flagg don't end up being top 5 guys. Guys who are legit top 5 are usually in that range for 5-10 years so they come very few and far between. I just feel like some are getting overly excited about Flagg probably because this is the first time in years that we have any shot at a #1 overall.

[League Circles]

Yes Flaggs BPM look way better than Banchero's, but it's lower than plenty of #1 picks:

Flagg - 15.9
Zion - 20.1
AD - 17.2

A couple of caveats -

1) By class/age, Flagg is a high school senior
2) You can run an offense through Flagg

The second point is the critical one for me. As a college player, Flagg averages 5.2 assists per 40, whereas Zion, Blake Griffin, and AD were at 2.7, 2.6, and 1.6 respectively. That puts Flagg in a different category than them, with LeBron, Tatum, Butler and other point forwards, rather than in the category of power players like Zion, Blake, and AD. Flagg is also shooting 37.5% on 3s, which is above what any of those guys did while in college -- and 3s are a BIG deal these days.

I think that the main argument against Flagg is that he's white and people don't trust white forwards as prospects - Bargs, Laettner, Danny Ferry, Adam Morrison, Keith van Horn, etc. It's hard for me to make the comparison to those players, it's been a long time, but I think Cooper's power/explosiveness is at a different level than theirs.

Flagg's overall game that you describe is why I don't think it would be best to keep Giddey around.

Are people actually arguing against Flagg due to race? I haven't seen that.

[Dez]

It would be cool to get Flagg I guess, though tbh I'm not nearly as high on him as many others are. I think he looks like an average #1 overall pick at best, and those guys are often way less than superstar building blocks.

But if we get #1 and take Flagg, I'd probably try to sign-and trade Giddey rather than keep him. I would be looking for something different if I had Flagg and Matas playing together. Frankly I like Coby over Giddey in that scenario.

He should be a high school senior right now and it scoring 20 ppg and you think he is an average #1 pick?

Read on Twitter

College stats mean virtually nothing to me. Seen way too many guys score big in college and be absolutely nothing in the league. I go by eye test for draftees and while I can see why people say he should be the #1 overall pick, I think he's a lot closer to Andrea Bargnani than Shaquille O'Neal.

Your eyes are f***ed.

Don't swear at / insult people, if you don't want to engage in a discussion then ignore or respond civilly - Doug

[dougthonus]

I think you're probably right that they're hard to predict and that the list is short, but still most of the guys that look like Flagg don't end up being top 5 guys.

Sure, most guys who look like guys who do end up being top 5 players also don't end up being top 5 players.

Guys who are legit top 5 are usually in that range for 5-10 years so they come very few and far between. I just feel like some are getting overly excited about Flagg probably because this is the first time in years that we have any shot at a #1 overall.

Agreed, in that there aren't many legit top 5 guys, and they are rare.

I would say Flagg probably won't be a top 5 guy, but he certainly has a legit shot at it.

[League Circles]

I think you're probably right that they're hard to predict and that the list is short, but still most of the guys that look like Flagg don't end up being top 5 guys.

Sure, most guys who look like guys who do end up being top 5 players also don't end up being top 5 players.

Guys who are legit top 5 are usually in that range for 5-10 years so they come very few and far between. I just feel like some are getting overly excited about Flagg probably because this is the first time in years that we have any shot at a #1 overall.

Agreed, in that there aren't many legit top 5 guys, and they are rare.

I would say Flagg probably won't be a top 5 guy, but he certainly has a legit shot at it.

Just to add a little context, I think most guys who end up as legit top 5 NBA players for a good chunk of years are huge physical outliers. I don't see that with Flagg. Some guys who are top 5 for a long time aren't super outliers, but most of them are IMO.

[dougthonus]

Just to add a little context, I think most guys who end up as legit top 5 NBA players for a good chunk of years are huge physical outliers. I don't see that with Flagg. Some guys who are top 5 for a long time aren't super outliers, but most of them are IMO.

Not sure that is true. Who are the huge physical outliers in the league that are top players recently? Giannis and LeBron and Wemby (if he becomes one later)?

[League Circles]

Just to add a little context, I think most guys who end up as legit top 5 NBA players for a good chunk of years are huge physical outliers. I don't see that with Flagg. Some guys who are top 5 for a long time aren't super outliers, but most of them are IMO.

Not sure that is true. Who are the huge physical outliers in the league that are top players recently? Giannis and LeBron and Wemby (if he becomes one later)?

Yeah, those guys plus Durant. I mean Lebron, KD and Giannis have spent a huge period of time as top 5 players which is kinda my point. Even Jokic is one of the very biggest guys in the league. Prime Rose was top 5 and a huge outlier. Anthony Edwards might be. Etc. Garnett was top 5 for a long time, Yao Ming was maybe top 5, Westbrook maybe was. SGA probably is now.

Very unique physical traits are kinda where I start in trying to look at super high upside for NBA prospects, for better or worse. That's why I'm high on a guy like Noa Essengue.

[WindyCityBorn]

AD and Zion were average #1 picks? Do you only watch Bulls games and not a single other NBA thing?

Zion is a bad #1 pick. Lack of work ethic.

Read on Twitter

Never said he wasn’t talented.

First one in like 5 or 6 seasons. Yay.

[WindyCityBorn]

Just to add a little context, I think most guys who end up as legit top 5 NBA players for a good chunk of years are huge physical outliers. I don't see that with Flagg. Some guys who are top 5 for a long time aren't super outliers, but most of them are IMO.

Not sure that is true. Who are the huge physical outliers in the league that are top players recently? Giannis and LeBron and Wemby (if he becomes one later)?

Right. You don’t need be an athletic freak outlier to be to a top player. Jokic, Curry, Leonard, SGADurant, Doncic etc do not fit that profiie.

[League Circles]

Just to add a little context, I think most guys who end up as legit top 5 NBA players for a good chunk of years are huge physical outliers. I don't see that with Flagg. Some guys who are top 5 for a long time aren't super outliers, but most of them are IMO.

Not sure that is true. Who are the huge physical outliers in the league that are top players recently? Giannis and LeBron and Wemby (if he becomes one later)?

Right. You don’t need be an athletic freak outlier to be to a top player. Jokic, Curry, Leonard, SGADurant, Doncic etc do not fit that profiie.

Jokic, Durant are definitely outliers IMO. Not so sure Curry or Doncic have been top 5 players. Kawhi I'll give you. Tbh I probably haven't watched enough SGA to have a meaningful opinion.

Flagg could certainly become great though. I just don't project him as a superstar, gun to my head. Which is fine. You can absolutely win a title or even multiple titles in this era without a top 5 player. In fact, and this may sound crazy so take it with a grain of salt cause I might not phrase it ideally, but I'd almost say that if you don't have the clear best player in the league, it's not that critical whether your leader is the 4th best or the 15th best. Much more important is who your other 4 starters are and how do all 5 guys fit together.

[dougthonus]

Yeah, those guys plus Durant. I mean Lebron, KD and Giannis have spent a huge period of time as top 5 players which is kinda my point. Even Jokic is one of the very biggest guys in the league. Prime Rose was top 5 and a huge outlier. Anthony Edwards might be. Etc. Garnett was top 5 for a long time, Yao Ming was maybe top 5, Westbrook maybe was. SGA probably is now.

Very unique physical traits are kinda where I start in trying to look at super high upside for NBA prospects, for better or worse. That's why I'm high on a guy like Noa Essengue.

If you are going to count all those guys as "outliers" then Flagg is also an outlier. He's a 6'9 guy with a 40 inch vertical which is more than Westbrook. Maybe you got "white guy" bias against Flagg, he looks like an elite athlete.

[League Circles]

Yeah, those guys plus Durant. I mean Lebron, KD and Giannis have spent a huge period of time as top 5 players which is kinda my point. Even Jokic is one of the very biggest guys in the league. Prime Rose was top 5 and a huge outlier. Anthony Edwards might be. Etc. Garnett was top 5 for a long time, Yao Ming was maybe top 5, Westbrook maybe was. SGA probably is now.

Very unique physical traits are kinda where I start in trying to look at super high upside for NBA prospects, for better or worse. That's why I'm high on a guy like Noa Essengue.

If you are going to count all those guys as "outliers" then Flagg is also an outlier. He's a 6'9 guy with a 40 inch vertical which is more than Westbrook. Maybe you got "white guy" bias against Flagg, he looks like an elite athlete.

We'll see what he measures at the combine, but I admit I haven't watched Flagg like many others have. But when I have, he hasn't jumped out to me in the way he apparently is to others. Though I would say that what I'm talking about can't quite be captured in height + vertical leap. There are certain guys that instantly stand out on the court. Very, very few and far between.

[Dez]

Yeah, those guys plus Durant. I mean Lebron, KD and Giannis have spent a huge period of time as top 5 players which is kinda my point. Even Jokic is one of the very biggest guys in the league. Prime Rose was top 5 and a huge outlier. Anthony Edwards might be. Etc. Garnett was top 5 for a long time, Yao Ming was maybe top 5, Westbrook maybe was. SGA probably is now.

Very unique physical traits are kinda where I start in trying to look at super high upside for NBA prospects, for better or worse. That's why I'm high on a guy like Noa Essengue.

If you are going to count all those guys as "outliers" then Flagg is also an outlier. He's a 6'9 guy with a 40 inch vertical which is more than Westbrook. Maybe you got "white guy" bias against Flagg, he looks like an elite athlete.

Is that not inferring racism?

[dougthonus]

Yeah, those guys plus Durant. I mean Lebron, KD and Giannis have spent a huge period of time as top 5 players which is kinda my point. Even Jokic is one of the very biggest guys in the league. Prime Rose was top 5 and a huge outlier. Anthony Edwards might be. Etc. Garnett was top 5 for a long time, Yao Ming was maybe top 5, Westbrook maybe was. SGA probably is now.

Very unique physical traits are kinda where I start in trying to look at super high upside for NBA prospects, for better or worse. That's why I'm high on a guy like Noa Essengue.

If you are going to count all those guys as "outliers" then Flagg is also an outlier. He's a 6'9 guy with a 40 inch vertical which is more than Westbrook. Maybe you got "white guy" bias against Flagg, he looks like an elite athlete.

Is that not inferring racism?

I would view racism as a deliberate system of belief that someone of a race is better than someone of another race while bias would be falling into subconscious stereotypical belief traps.

I used the word bias, and I think there is definitely a subconscious bias that white players are not athletic that is frequently held.

[dougthonus]

We'll see what he measures at the combine, but I admit I haven't watched Flagg like many others have. But when I have, he hasn't jumped out to me in the way he apparently is to others. Though I would say that what I'm talking about can't quite be captured in height + vertical leap. There are certain guys that instantly stand out on the court. Very, very few and far between.

Yeah, I don't know what it means to pop specifically, but if you just mean very few and far between, sure I agree he doesn't pop like a LeBron might. I agree, like I said, I put him as an Anthony Davis type of prospect, Davis when healthy probably pretty consistently has been a top 10ish type player, but probably never a top 5ish type player, but he easily might have been if things had worked out differently, and if things had worked out a bit less well, he might have been a more of a top 20ish or 30ish type guy.

[Infinity2152]

Banchero is 6'9 with a 40 inch vertical. There are probably quite a few guys at or near that height with great verticals, Aaron Gordon was listed at 46 at one point. 2020-2025, there are a bunch of players with 44+ verticals. Jericho Sims, 6'10, 44 inch vertical. Don't think that's a physical advantage the way Lebron's body or Zions' body is, or KD, 7 ft ballhandler/shooter. The Greek Freak. Should help him defensively, probably going to be a great player. But leaping really high from the PF position isn't a physical outlier without speed. How fast is he? Have seen him listed at SG and SF, what position is he likely to play?

Headache. Flashback of Tyrus Thomas draft, last 6'9 player we drafted with 40 vertical, lol. Or Julian Phillips has a 43 inch vert at 6'8" and 7ft wingspan. Somebody should be working with that kid.