Bears thread 13

[DropStep]

I do agree it's possible the offense would look better with Bagent starting right now, but Caleb has shown enough this season to believe he's a long term answer, provided he keeps improving. I'd still love to see Bagent start a game this year just to see how he does in this offense.

What on earth????? This is certainly a... take.

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Bears fans have always been obsessed with backups. From Shane Matthews to Kyle Orton to Caleb Hanie to Bagent. It's the Chicago way.

Orton started 82 games, so maybe he deserved some attention.

[fleet]

does maye go #1 in a re-draft now?

He was my #1 in the actual draft, so, yes for me again.

Drake: Big ole hoss.
Jayden: Durability?
Caleb: SUSPECT

I don't know that suspect is the term that I used to describe Caleb as a prospect other than the fact that i suspected that he would take 2-3 years to develop provided that he was in the right situation. The struggles that he's demonstrated haven't bothered me as much as it has some people because I sort of saw it coming. But just as I saw these struggles, I also saw the talent that would allow him to overcome them. And I'm still confident in that. If we remain patient, we (and he) will be fine.

Fine is failure in terms of the greater opportunity the Bears have been gifted.

This, was to be the no excuses tour. How soon we forget. Granted different players develop on different timelines. But Ben Johnson is placing demands and expectations on Caleb right now which are not quite fulfilled. Drake Maye is younger and less experienced than Caleb, and is in the same exact situation. Caleb who was certainly regarded as the more ready to play prospect than Maye. This kind of lets be patient’ approach while the player more or less is battling expectations is all well and good. Not saying you’re wrong to pin your hopes there. But it’s not as if we haven’t heard that tune before. Seems like just yesteryear. The more young players don’t show it to you, the more they won’t. The more they do, the more they will. Anyway, who’s your horse in the race?

[fleet]

It will be a potentially awkward situation when the Bears have to let Moody go to another team. And he will definitely be grabbed up. I don’t know how this turns out, Moody could crash to earth next week, but the bloody contract we paid to Santos is increasingly more ill-conceived even after it was il conceived in the first place. I like Santos, but that wasn’t necessary.

[fleet]

I want to see this Bears D with Jaylon Johnson and Booker back and healthy. Think we could see a dominant D even against good offenses.

Add in our new run game and we are trending the right direction.

Billings reemphasized. Bears defense reinvigorates.

[fleet]

With it being our bye, I think now would be the best time to make moves to fill holes/make improvements. There are three main things that come to mind:

1. Trade Swift/acquire new RB
2. Sign a CB
3. Improve the DL

Trading Swift:
He's been terrible, and I think most people would rather just see the rookie get the bulk of the carries. With that being said, I don't think he's without value. I think the Chiefs are a trade partner target. I would honestly take anything, but I think we can realistically get a 4th for him from the Chiefs. KC has had a horrible run game. I think Mahomes was the rushing leader for them after three games, and then yesterday, Worthy led them in rushing. Swift might have a dog **** IQ, but he can still be the lead rusher on your team and he'd be a good passing game threat for them as well. And then swift and Pacheco would be a really good 1/2 punch, in theory. Best case scenario would be a 4th and Kareem Hunt, IMO.

After that, I would like us to flip what we got in the Swift trade for a different RB. There are a handful that come to mind:
1. DeVon Achan
2. Braelon Allen
3. Tyler Allgeier

I think those would be my top 3 choices, but there are a decent amount of backs that I think can be a stopgap as a starter for the rest of the season and be cheap to get. Some of those players players would include; Tony Pollard, Nick Chubb, & Rhamondre Stevens.

Honorable Mention: Alvin Kamara. This would obviously be a big swing, but I think there's little reason for him to stay in NO and given his age and injury history, the trade compensation might not be too pricey.

Signing a CB:
I'm honestly surprised it hasn't happened yet, especially after the JJ news. Regardless, there are a handful of quality veteran CBs available and would probably be better than our CB4/5/6s right away. Top candidates, imo:

1. Asante Samuel Jr
2. Stepon Gilmore
3. Kendall Fuller
4. Chris Sutton

Improving the DL: I put this last because there's little chance we do anything

First, our run defense. There aren't a lot of options for us other than signing a beefcake off the street. Linval Joseph is a FA. I think it would be at least worth kicking the tires on him.

Next, our pass rush continues to be pathetic. I think I saw we had zero sacks and one QB hit against the Raiders. The major problem with trading for a DE (because we wouldn't be able to sign one) is that anyone worth trading for is probably getting paid to much money. The person that comes to mind is Trey Hendrickson. There's really no point of the Bengals holding on to him. They're likely to be a bottom 5 team without Burrow and Hendrickson is now an FA after this season. They might as well trade him for value while they can. The positive for us (and anyone in the market for a DE) is that his trade value has probably dropped with his raise and being a FA. Negative for us is that his contract is probably to big for us to afford. If we can pull off the money, I'd do a 3rd.

But, I think it's best for us to hold off on making a move for a DE until the offseason. We can maximize our flexibility in the offseason. I think if it comes to it, cutting Dayo would be relatively friendly and there are other cap moves that can be made without accruing too much dead cap. With another horrible year for the Browns, I think its inevitable that Garrett demands a trade again, and if he does, I think it happens. I'd be willing to trade two 1sts and Sweat (or Dayo).

Long story short, we need to trade Swift and acquire a decent to great back from a bad team and sign a CB

Let’s come back in 2 weeks with the ability to stop the run, and ability to run.

A wild concept

….that we manifested into reality

[Betta Bulleavit]

He was my #1 in the actual draft, so, yes for me again.

Drake: Big ole hoss.
Jayden: Durability?
Caleb: SUSPECT

I don't know that suspect is the term that I used to describe Caleb as a prospect other than the fact that i suspected that he would take 2-3 years to develop provided that he was in the right situation. The struggles that he's demonstrated haven't bothered me as much as it has some people because I sort of saw it coming. But just as I saw these struggles, I also saw the talent that would allow him to overcome them. And I'm still confident in that. If we remain patient, we (and he) will be fine.

Fine is failure in terms of the greater opportunity the Bears have been gifted.

This, was to be the no excuses tour. How soon we forget. Granted different players develop on different timelines. But Ben Johnson is placing demands and expectations on Caleb right now which are not quite fulfilled. Drake Maye is younger and less experienced than Caleb, and is in the same exact situation. Caleb who was certainly regarded as the more ready to play prospect than Maye. This kind of lets be patient’ approach while the player more or less is battling expectations is all well and good. Not saying you’re wrong to pin your hopes there. But it’s not as if we haven’t heard that tune before. Seems like just yesteryear. The more young players don’t show it to you, the more they won’t. The more they do, the more they will. Anyway, who’s your horse in the race?

In the context of the sub-topic (Re-draft) i think it would be hard to not go Maye number 1. He's out here having an MVP caliber season at the moment.

After.that, I'd go Williams 2. I just don't trust Daniels' body.

To your other points, I'm not as concerned with what we're being told to value. I just think we have to focus on what is. We don't have Maye. But if we do this right, it wont matter because we could still have our QB. 1 1/3. That's how far we are into each of these guys careers.

[jnrjr79]

It will be a potentially awkward situation when the Bears have to let Moody go to another team. And he will definitely be grabbed up. I don’t know how this turns out, Moody could crash to earth next week, but the bloody contract we paid to Santos is increasingly more ill-conceived even after it was il conceived in the first place. I like Santos, but that wasn’t necessary.

Googling around, it seems his guaranteed money is basically done after this year. Wouldn’t shock me if they think about making a change to Moody.

[NZB2323]

wonder if a 4-2 team has ever been that big a dog to a 1-5 team in league history

Unless the Ravens were supplied with a magical defensive potion over their bye week, i can't see them covering as 6.5 favorites over anyone.

they only allowed 17 points to against the rams while being without key players on defense and having a piss poor offense. Them being bad on defense in the first4/5 weeks is one of the biggest shocks of the nfl so far, if not THE biggest. I don't think it would be a good idea to assume that we will be facing the version that allowed 30+ ppgs. Hopefully, they didn't get it fully together, but i would expect a drastic improvement in their defensive performance moving forward.

Yeah, and Roquon Smith is expected to be back and it’s a revenge game for him.

[Bulls69]

Fella, this is not Madden. Williams, Daniels, and Maye are all very talented quarterbacks. They each are going to have some very good games. All three are young; let's give it some time. Maye could easily go out and throw three picks in his next start. That doesn't make him a failure; it happens.


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[IliketheBullsNBearstoo]

Did Swift and Monangai do enough to shut down the trade for Kamara talk(or any other RB)?

Would like to see what Booker can add to our defense if he can play like he did in preseason. We need to add a disrupter to that front 4, it would just take this defense to another level.

And the Moody situation is interesting. Probably going to lose him.

[nomorezorro]

moody had a really bad blocked kick with us, hasn't made any FGs you wouldn't expect santos to make, and was cut from his last team because he made less than 75% of his kicks there. unless he's doing insane stuff in practice, there is no hard decision to be made about the kicker position.

[Stratmaster]

Did Swift and Monangai do enough to shut down the trade for Kamara talk(or any other RB)?

Would like to see what Booker can add to our defense if he can play like he did in preseason. We need to add a disrupter to that front 4, it would just take this defense to another level.

And the Moody situation is interesting. Probably going to lose him.

Our running back room has gone from looking empty, to overflowing. It is amazing what can happen when the OL actually opens holes.

[jnrjr79]

moody had a really bad blocked kick with us, hasn't made any FGs you wouldn't expect santos to make, and was cut from his last team because he made less than 75% of his kicks there. unless he's doing insane stuff in practice, there is no hard decision to be made about the kicker position.

I think the thing missing from this analysis is that he's got a way bigger leg than Cairo.

[nomorezorro]

cool so we can make a couple of more 57+ yard FGs and miss way more sub-50 yard FGs

the bears can absolutely upgrade at kicker but there's no reason to think the answer is a guy who was so bad his team cut him after using a third-round pick on him

[nomorezorro]

i also think people have an extreme misconception of how common super long FGs are in the NFL now. there were only 3 kickers who made 60+ yard FGs last season, and only 5 so far this season. the cowboys kicker is the only one of those who has made more than 1 60+ yard FG in either of the past two seasons.

santos made a 57 yard fg this preseason. there are 14 kickers with a longer made FG than that this season, and 6 of those were only longer by 1 yard.

santos also had a longer make last season than moody's long!

[Stratmaster]

moody had a really bad blocked kick with us, hasn't made any FGs you wouldn't expect santos to make, and was cut from his last team because he made less than 75% of his kicks there. unless he's doing insane stuff in practice, there is no hard decision to be made about the kicker position.

I don't know whether to agree or disagree with this. Other than that block, he is 8 for 8 and also hasn't missed an extra point, which is no longer a given in the NFL. What makes me put more stock in that is that he has done this in horrible conditions (first game) and somewhat poor conditions (2nd game). They weren't exceptionally long kicks, but it isn't like he was kicking chip shots in a dome either. He was highly regarded, drafted in the 3rd round, and looked like a stud kicker his rookie season with 84% FG, 60 of 61 XP, and he went 3 for 3 in the Super Bowl with two of those being over 50 yards. Of course, he stunk in his 2nd season. So which guy is he? The rookie guy and the one we saw in the last 2 games? Or the sophomore guy?

On the flip side, Santos has been doing this a long time. 85.5% over a 12 year career. But he only played 19 games over 3 seasons from 2017-2019. 4 of his 5 best seasons have been with the Bears, meaning when the Bears got him he had a mediocre track record at best. I don't know if that is a positive (his experience has paid off and he has become a great kicker) or a negative (he has been kicking at a level he may not sustain). His last 2 seasons have been trending downward, although still very solid.

Interestingly, the NFL average is 84%, so both guys seem to fall into that average category, although a case can be made that Soldier Field isn't a great place to be a kicker.

So I am pretty ambivalent. I think there is indeed a decision to be made. Do you go with the 25 year old, highly touted guy who could be an answer for years to come? Or the experienced 33 year old vet who is nearing the end of his career? Personally, I think it is whoever has the biggest leg. Like most kickers in the league, these guys are likely going to hit 82-86% of their kicks. Which one has the big leg that might give you a long game winner. I don't know enough about either to answer that.

[Jeffster81]

Did Swift and Monangai do enough to shut down the trade for Kamara talk(or any other RB)?

Would like to see what Booker can add to our defense if he can play like he did in preseason. We need to add a disrupter to that front 4, it would just take this defense to another level.

And the Moody situation is interesting. Probably going to lose him.

Thank you.

Personally, I still take Williams over Daniels and Maye because I believe Williams has a higher upside than either two. With that side, at their primes, I think all three will be in the same tier of QBs.

At the end of the year, I suspect Williams/Maye and Daniels will have similar numbers.

[Dresden]

He was my #1 in the actual draft, so, yes for me again.

Drake: Big ole hoss.
Jayden: Durability?
Caleb: SUSPECT

I don't know that suspect is the term that I used to describe Caleb as a prospect other than the fact that i suspected that he would take 2-3 years to develop provided that he was in the right situation. The struggles that he's demonstrated haven't bothered me as much as it has some people because I sort of saw it coming. But just as I saw these struggles, I also saw the talent that would allow him to overcome them. And I'm still confident in that. If we remain patient, we (and he) will be fine.

Fine is failure in terms of the greater opportunity the Bears have been gifted.

This, was to be the no excuses tour. How soon we forget. Granted different players develop on different timelines. But Ben Johnson is placing demands and expectations on Caleb right now which are not quite fulfilled. Drake Maye is younger and less experienced than Caleb, and is in the same exact situation. Caleb who was certainly regarded as the more ready to play prospect than Maye. This kind of lets be patient’ approach while the player more or less is battling expectations is all well and good. Not saying you’re wrong to pin your hopes there. But it’s not as if we haven’t heard that tune before. Seems like just yesteryear. The more young players don’t show it to you, the more they won’t. The more they do, the more they will. Anyway, who’s your horse in the race?

No, they aren't in the same situation. He's with the Patriots, Caleb's on the Bears. If they both played on the same team, and each played a half, and one did better than the other, then it would be a fair comparison. Each team has different issues, different coaching, different schemes, each asks different things from its QB. For one thing, NE has an absolute creampuff of a schedule this year. I don't know how their SOS compares to the Bears, but the Pats could easily with 10-12 games with that schedule they have, which includes playing the Jets and the Dolphins twice each.

I think it likely takes at least 3 years, and more likely 5-7 years to really evaluate a QB. Look at Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, Jared Goff, Daniel Jones. Last year Daniels looked like the winner. This year Maye looks better. Things can change in a hurry. We have to patient with Caleb and hope he gets up to speed. It is disappointing that he's not been better, but that's how it's turned out. There's still hope for the long term with him, and overall, he has shown significant growth from last year.

[Dresden]

It will be a potentially awkward situation when the Bears have to let Moody go to another team. And he will definitely be grabbed up. I don’t know how this turns out, Moody could crash to earth next week, but the bloody contract we paid to Santos is increasingly more ill-conceived even after it was il conceived in the first place. I like Santos, but that wasn’t necessary.

Googling around, it seems his guaranteed money is basically done after this year. Wouldn’t shock me if they think about making a change to Moody.

I think it's hard to switch to Moody. His track record is pretty spotty. He might be fine for a year, and then suddenly start missing chip shots and cost you games. It's something you won't know until it happens. Santos is the most accurate kicker the Bears have ever had I believe. It's a tough call.

[nomorezorro]

you actually don't even have to judge the qbs against each other at all. "in hindsight, was there a better player available at the pick?" is an extremely facile form of draft evaluation that treats the draft like a much more exact science than it actually is. caleb doesn't need to have been the best possible pick to be a good pick; he just needs to be a good qb.