Butler trade rumor - KC Johnson update: pg 63

[the ultimates]

None of those players were close to where Butler is right now and you know it. None of those players were guys you could build around. You're advocating moving Butler an elite player for the smaller chance to get another elite player or players through the draft. How many teams has that worked out for? How many years does it take?

I know none of those players were as good as Butler. That's irrelevant. They were still very good players in their prime who, if they Sixers had kept them, would have continued to win games for them and get them to the playoffs as a low seed.

And I'm not advocating the Bulls to trade Butler. I'm fighting against these absolute notions that suggest trading Butler is sacrilegious.

The premise of the tank isn't to find one person like Butler. The premise is to find multiple guys like Butler, or at a similar level, and have them grow together as a core. That's why the theory of it makes sense.

The Bulls have failed to pair Butler with another star, and have built the worst possible roster to put a guy around Butler, forcing this team to be a middling junk team in a weak conference.

How is that irrelevant none of them as individuals or a collective are as good as Jimmy is now. You need star players to win right which one of those players on Philly was ever considered a star. You said the premise of the tank isn't to find one player like Butler but multiple stars like him. How many teams have actually done that.

Which players have Orlando got that are better than Howard was when he was there. Which players have the Nuggets got better than Melo? Minnesota has finally upped their talent base after a decade. You've seen the assets mentioned by decent nba insiders about what was on the table for Butler tell me another top 15 player those same packages net. Another fallacy is the Bulls haven't built around Jimmy. This is the Bulls first season trying to build around him the other teams were built around Derrick, other teams which were contenders.

[kurtatx]

Of course the Bulls are not shopping Butler, they absolutely love being stuck in neutral. Not good enough to be a contender, but not bad enough to be in contention to drafting elite talent. Apathy at it's finest.

Keeping Butler isn't the Bulls' problem, it's the inability to draft the right players. You can cry about being "stuck in neutral" all you want, but as long as LeBron is in the East, the Bulls are going to struggle.

Of course Butler isn't the problem, never said he was. I am not crying, I am bemoaning the fact that the Bulls do not have the stones to make the moves needed to get in Lebron's face. The Bulls do not need to make it easier for the him and that is what they have done.

We are in agreement. The crux of the problem remains poor drafting.

[Ice Man]

Minnesota has finally upped their talent base after a decade.

Eh ... not necessarily. The Wolves in '12 had 23 year old Kevin Love, 21 year old Ricky Rubio, 22 year old Anthony Randolph. On PERs, vs. the current crop of 21 year olds -

Wolves 2012
Love 25
Randolph 18
Rubio 15

Wolves 2017
KAT 22
LaVine 16
Wiggins 16

There's nothing the current crop is doing, besides scoring in volume (because somebody's gotta score, and that is the job for those three guys on a team that starts Dieng and Rubio), that hasn't been done by a trio of young players at many other teams at many other times. Sometimes that trio becomes something. Most of the time, not really.

[AirP.]

Another fallacy is the Bulls haven't built around Jimmy. This is the Bulls first season trying to build around him the other teams were built around Derrick, other teams which were contenders.

How have they started building around Butler? By trading a ball dependent PG to sign a ball dependent pg? Was it the big signing of a SG who can't shoot 3s and basically duplicates Butler's game? To me "building" around a player would be actually getting players who complement that player, not duplicate or actually go completely against him(like a ball dependent PG who can't shoot or play defense). What the FO did was bring in a player(Wade) who's good enough to make sure they don't get a high draft pick next year.

By the way, in net +/-, the worst 3 man combination for Butler this year is Butler, Wade and Rondo at -.5 pts per 100 possessions, only one other 3 man combination is negative with Butler in it(Butler, McDermott, Lopez), every other 3 man with Butler is positive. Going a little further... Butler's WORST 2 man combination is Butler and Wade at +1.

[Lauri_Legend]

Although, if the Bulls do trade Butler, Bulls fans can finally unite again. I feel like the fan base is somewhat split with Butler fans (like myself) vs salty homer die-hard Rose fans

[AirP.]

Minnesota has finally upped their talent base after a decade.

Eh ... not necessarily. The Wolves in '12 had 23 year old Kevin Love, 21 year old Ricky Rubio, 22 year old Anthony Randolph. On PERs, vs. the current crop of 21 year olds -

Wolves 2012
Love 25
Randolph 18
Rubio 15

Wolves 2017
KAT 22
LaVine 16
Wiggins 16

There's nothing the current crop is doing, besides scoring in volume (because somebody's gotta score, and that is the job for those three guys on a team that starts Dieng and Rubio), that hasn't been done by a trio of young players at many other teams at many other times. Sometimes that trio becomes something. Most of the time, not really.

Anthony Randolph is in there? Dude didn't even play 1000 minutes in 2 seasons in Minnesota and he was already on his 3rd team by the time he joined them.

[MC3]

Although, if the Bulls do trade Butler, Bulls fans can finally unite again. I feel like the fan base is somewhat split with Butler fans (like myself) vs salty homer die-hard Rose fans

Bulls fans will unite when GarPax are fired. We need fresh start in our organization. That's a clear as it can be.

We need modern front office with new ideas, new vision who will get modern NBA players. Long and athletic. Either via draft or FA. There must be a plan. Not throw shtick on the wall and see what sticks on to it. And pie in sky plans.

[Ice Man]

Anthony Randolph is in there? Dude didn't even play 1000 minutes in 2 seasons in Minnesota and he was already on his 3rd team by the time he joined them.

OK, he was a stretch. I needed a third player for the comparison. But Love/Rubio are a good comparison for KAT/Wiggins or KAT/LaVine. There was a damn lot of excitement about Rubio at the time, just as much as with Wiggins or LaVine, and just as much reason to be excited. And Love is a perennial stud, aside from a couple of years adjusting in Cleveland. KAT will be doing just fine if he ends up at that level.

[Rerisen]

Even that is unlikely. The Wizards did get John Wall (after losing 20, 23, 26, 19) then Bradly Beal, and other top 3 picks (Vesely, Porter, etc) and were hyped as the next big thing for a couple years, it never happened.

Trading Butler just to end up like that would definitely be a fail, and its very possible, if not even likely.

The Wizards haven't ended up where they did because of Wall, Beal and Porter, all of whom are really good (with the latter breaking out this season). They ended up as a mediocre team because of some bad free agent signings.

The guy they gave $60m to, who plays the same position as Gortat, hasn't barely even been on the court this season.

And even then, they were a game away from being in the ECF. They would have been if Wall doesn't break his hand against the Hawks.

FO's are never going to be perfect. Ours certainly hasn't been. So if that's what is required when tanking type seasons don't produce the mega talents, we better think twice.

If you want to say there is a hypothetical where over any given 3 year tank period, if your FO is clairvoyant and picks the absolute best players available every draft (I mean by end result not projection) and don't make any big FA blunders, the should have a good chance to at least produce a fringe contender, I would agree with you. Just doing all that is like a camel going through the eye of a needle.

[AirP.]

Anthony Randolph is in there? Dude didn't even play 1000 minutes in 2 seasons in Minnesota and he was already on his 3rd team by the time he joined them.

OK, he was a stretch. I needed a third player for the comparison. But Love/Rubio are a good comparison for KAT/Wiggins or KAT/LaVine. There was a damn lot of excitement about Rubio at the time, just as much as with Wiggins or LaVine, and just as much reason to be excited. And Love is a perennial stud, aside from a couple of years adjusting in Cleveland. KAT will be doing just fine if he ends up at that level.

Yeah, that was Rubio before he tore his ACL and his lateral collateral ligament. He looked extremely promising before that, as a rookie age 21... 10.6 pts, 8.2 ast, 2.2 ast and 34% from 3pt range(2.3 3pta per game). Rubio and a young Love is a damn good start for a rebuild and gives you a long time to build the right team around them.

How horrible is it that Minnesota drafted 2 PGs in the top 6 picks(should have traded down and got assets at least, that's on them) knowing they had to wait on Rubio, finally get Rubio and then he has a career changing injury his rookie year. Of course he was no D.Rose but it's still a huge blow to a franchise.

[Ice Man]

Yeah, that was Rubio before he tore his ACL and his lateral collateral ligament. He looked extremely promising before that, as a rookie age 21... 10.6 pts, 8.2 ast, 2.2 ast and 34% from 3pt range(2.3 3pta per game). Rubio and a young Love is a damn good start for a rebuild and gives you a long time to build the right team around them.

Yep, that's what we all thought.

Don't know how much Rubio's ACL had to do with how things turned out. He has been one of the steadiest players around, the guy who who showed up as a rookie was the same player in Year 3 and now in Year 6. The bigger issue, for me, is that when he was young everybody waved their hands and said, "OK he can't shoot but he'll fix that," and now they say "OK he can't shoot so he sucks."

He wasn't that good then and he's not that bad now. He's ... Ricky Rubio.

Very likely the same with Wiggins. He's never going to learn how to defend, rebound, or pass, and in a few years he will be mocked mercilessly. But he'll be useful in the right place as a volume scorer.

[greenl]

Very likely the same with Wiggins. He's never going to learn how to defend, rebound, or pass, and in a few years he will be mocked mercilessly. But he'll be useful in the right place as a volume scorer.

I do not envy the team that hands Wiggins a max contract.

[AirP.]

Yeah, that was Rubio before he tore his ACL and his lateral collateral ligament. He looked extremely promising before that, as a rookie age 21... 10.6 pts, 8.2 ast, 2.2 ast and 34% from 3pt range(2.3 3pta per game). Rubio and a young Love is a damn good start for a rebuild and gives you a long time to build the right team around them.

Yep, that's what we all thought.

Don't know how much Rubio's ACL had to do with how things turned out. He has been one of the steadiest players around, the guy who who showed up as a rookie was the same player in Year 3 and now in Year 6. The bigger issue, for me, is that when he was young everybody waved their hands and said, "OK he can't shoot but he'll fix that," and now they say "OK he can't shoot so he sucks."

He wasn't that good then and he's not that bad now. He's ... Ricky Rubio.

Very likely the same with Wiggins. He's never going to learn how to defend, rebound, or pass, and in a few years he will be mocked mercilessly. But he'll be useful in the right place as a volume scorer.

Well, it took away development time and after that players play a little safer. He has had enough time to work on his shot to have made him a better player which he hasn't done. If someone's willing to put in the work they can get better at shooting the ball, not saying it's easy but having professionals help you and reworking your muscle memory should make you better. Jimmy Butler has shown what hard work can do for you, hell Steph Curry's dad made him redo his shot in HS because it wasn't good form.

[Axl Rose]

I wish I was a psychologist, I'm sure there is a technical term for the trading a known value of $100 for an unknown with an expected value less than $100, but with a low chance of being worth $1000. By definition, it's the same reason so many people play the lottery. I wonder if there is a high correlation between "blow it up" supporters and lottery players.

Watch on YouTube

that fits exceptionally well really "a great player is a great player but a lottery pick can be anything, even a great player. you know how much we wanted one of those"

[NADROJ]

I wish I was a psychologist, I'm sure there is a technical term for the trading a known value of $100 for an unknown with an expected value less than $100, but with a low chance of being worth $1000. By definition, it's the same reason so many people play the lottery. I wonder if there is a high correlation between "blow it up" supporters and lottery players.

Watch on YouTube

that fits exceptionally well really "a great player is a great player but a lottery pick can be anything, even a great player. you know how much we wanted one of those"

Those who want to build around Jimmy are counting on that same mystery box to magically produce a top notch FA or two.

[Ice Man]

Those who want to build around Jimmy are counting on that same mystery box to magically produce a top notch FA or two.

If all that counts is a title, tanking probably equals rebuilding probably equals building around Butler. There are 30 teams, so about a 3% chance. They are all unlikely paths.

So yeah, we all need the magic box to produce something, no matter what strategy we advocate. The difference is, some fans are alright if the magic box doesn't release Shaq the Genie but instead a couple of good players, and the team wins 50 games, gets into the second round of the playoffs, and has some fun games along the way. We'd rather be doing that than be Denver or Kings or Philly or LA and hope that the kids turn out right, while losing a bunch of games. So we'd rather keep Butler and try to build around him.

Logic won't determine the path. Tastes will.

[AirP.]

Those who want to build around Jimmy are counting on that same mystery box to magically produce a top notch FA or two.

Doesn't have to be, they could go after some key players instead of big free agents. I do wonder if the FO was very aggressive, could they put a team around Butler AND Wade this year or next year? Go get a guy like Sacremento's A.Afflalo or Casspi(have them toss in McLemore). Go get a defensive big like Noel(and resign him) or Milsap. There are options for Chicago to build around Butler but are they willing to risk the future on it? I don't think this FO is willing to do that.

I don't think they could really compete this year(although show promise in the playoffs), but possibly next year.

[Mech Engineer]

Those who want to build around Jimmy are counting on that same mystery box to magically produce a top notch FA or two.

If all that counts is a title, tanking probably equals rebuilding probably equals building around Butler. There are 30 teams, so about a 3% chance. They are all unlikely paths.

So yeah, we all need the magic box to produce something, no matter what strategy we advocate. The difference is, some fans are alright if the magic box doesn't release Shaq the Genie but instead a couple of good players, and the team wins 50 games, gets into the second round of the playoffs, and has some fun games along the way. We'd rather be doing that than be Denver or Kings or Philly or LA and hope that the kids turn out right, while losing a bunch of games. So we'd rather keep Butler and try to build around him.

Logic won't determine the path. Tastes will.

The other thing is injuries. It is very dangerous/risky/bad bet to build around a couple of young players hoping they will stay healthy/mature at the same time. If it is title or bust, why did GS really lose last year? Curry got injured at the wrong time. I know LeBron/Kyrie played well. But, do the Cavs win if Curry was healthy like he was in the 1st round.

We have seen the same thing with the Bulls. The Bulls drafted two star players in the last decade who should have been peaking together now(Jimmy/Rose). But, injuries happened. It has happened multiple times with the Clippers.

The window of winning is very less and this dream story of MJ/Scottie maturing and winning 6 times in 8 years is more of a outlier. You have a Olajuwon and get lucky to find someone like Drexler in a trade to win is more controllable/less injury risk because it is for a few seasons. Kobe with Pau, Pierce with Garnett, Dirk with Chandler, Wade with Shaq, Irving with LeBron, Wade with LeBron etc... are so many of the recent examples. Most times, the winning team has got the other star through free agency or trade.

Two young draft picks growing together like MJ/Scottie is very rare because they get frustrated with not winning or injuries happen.

The Bulls have Jimmy and need to find that second star like those other teams did and many of those moves are not usually predictable a few years in advance.

[the ultimates]

Another fallacy is the Bulls haven't built around Jimmy. This is the Bulls first season trying to build around him the other teams were built around Derrick, other teams which were contenders.

How have they started building around Butler? By trading a ball dependent PG to sign a ball dependent pg? Was it the big signing of a SG who can't shoot 3s and basically duplicates Butler's game? To me "building" around a player would be actually getting players who complement that player, not duplicate or actually go completely against him(like a ball dependent PG who can't shoot or play defense). What the FO did was bring in a player(Wade) who's good enough to make sure they don't get a high draft pick next year.

By the way, in net +/-, the worst 3 man combination for Butler this year is Butler, Wade and Rondo at -.5 pts per 100 possessions, only one other 3 man combination is negative with Butler in it(Butler, McDermott, Lopez), every other 3 man with Butler is positive. Going a little further... Butler's WORST 2 man combination is Butler and Wade at +1.

Any pass first point guard is going to be ball dominant. Where was this huge market for acquiring a 3 & D point guard. So you want a team built around Butler with no other player that can create their own shot. Wasn't that the criticism of the front during the Rose era? He's forced to do much now you willingly want Jimmy to do that. Wade was need because he's still a solid player and can still get his own. The three point shooting is an issue because outside of Doug (.368) the other shooters have been terrible Canaan (.256) Mirotic (.313).

[bullslas]

I've been against Butler being a PG, but honestly at this point, I would start Wade/Butler in the backcourt. Doug at the 3, with Taj and Lopez.

Bulls should be looking for backup Center in the trade market. I would look at getting Okafor if he's cheap.