ChiCitySPORTS#1 wrote:League Circles wrote:I just looked at the history of #4 in this era. You have about a 20-30% of drafting a player at 4 who is better than Jrue Holiday.
That is such an arbitrary thing, limiting yourself to the #4 slot only. You're better off looking at if there are 4 players in the lottery better than Jrue Holiday. That's almost yes every time, and sometimes by a lot, and again worth the gamble.
I dont get how you could think that trading our pick for an injury prone, mediocre PG who has 4 years left on his deal and gets paid $26M+ each year is a good idea. It's not, and you probably have realized that but want to keep arguing about it.
Oh I don't doubt that a player will be available at 4 who will become better than Holiday. I just think most teams will fail to identify the player, including the Bulls. That's why #4 isn't arbitrary. It bakes in the difficulty identifying the player.
Jrue is hardly more injury prone than an average player, and again, has 3 years, not 4 left on his deal.
Holiday is a good starter, which is 2-3 tiers above "mediocre PG".
I'll be damned if there are "almost always" 4 players better than Holiday in the top 14 picks of historical drafts. Please make lists of drafts and show me this to be the case.