2018 Draft Thread #6

[Thebullsgod1993]

New big board

1.Ayton
2.Doncic
3.JJJ
4. Porter JR
5. Bamba
6. Bagley
7. Mikal
8. Young
9. Carter Jr
10. Miles

[Dresden]

I"m not sold on JJJ being better than Porter or Bagley. He has too many games where his numbers are very anemic. I'd put him probably tied with Bomba, and after Bagley, Porter, Doncic and Ayton.

[GimmeDat]

I"m not sold on JJJ being better than Porter or Bagley. He has too many games where his numbers are very anemic. I'd put him probably tied with Bomba, and after Bagley, Porter, Doncic and Ayton.

20/10 with 2 3 point makes and 5.6 blocks per 40.

I don't think production's the issue, more so that in his youth he has a really high foul rate which is keeping him off the floor.

[WindyCityBorn]

I"m not sold on JJJ being better than Porter or Bagley. He has too many games where his numbers are very anemic. I'd put him probably tied with Bomba, and after Bagley, Porter, Doncic and Ayton.

I think Bagley is gonna be a star. I have him right after Ayton. JJJ is a project. Not to the level of Bamba, but his offense is not very developed.

[WindyCityBorn]

I"m not sold on JJJ being better than Porter or Bagley. He has too many games where his numbers are very anemic. I'd put him probably tied with Bomba, and after Bagley, Porter, Doncic and Ayton.

20/10 with 2 3 point makes and 5.6 blocks per 40.

I don't think production's the issue, more so that in his youth he has a really high foul rate which is keeping him off the floor.

It's dangerous to do per projections with NBA players. I definitely don't trust it for college guys when there actually is a guy putting up 20/10 in real life in Bagley. Both high potential, but one is actually producing now. Tough call for some GM.

[GimmeDat]

I"m not sold on JJJ being better than Porter or Bagley. He has too many games where his numbers are very anemic. I'd put him probably tied with Bomba, and after Bagley, Porter, Doncic and Ayton.

20/10 with 2 3 point makes and 5.6 blocks per 40.

I don't think production's the issue, more so that in his youth he has a really high foul rate which is keeping him off the floor.

It's dangerous to do per projections with NBA players. I definitely don't trust it for college guys when there actually is a guy putting up 20/10 in real life in Bagley. Both high potential, but one is actually producing now. Tough call for some GM.

I don't say that to project, I'm just saying, if you're going to judge a guy on his stat-lines, it's worth accounting for his minutes and why he's not getting as many.

For the most part, counting stats should be far down the list when it comes to evaluating players. Hunter's averaging 9 and 3 and he's getting hype as a lottery pick, for example.

I find it a bit scary projecting those guys that aren't putting up actual big numbers as well, but the past proves that it's misleading to put too much stock in to college raw numbers.

[WindyCityBorn]

20/10 with 2 3 point makes and 5.6 blocks per 40.

I don't think production's the issue, more so that in his youth he has a really high foul rate which is keeping him off the floor.

It's dangerous to do per projections with NBA players. I definitely don't trust it for college guys when there actually is a guy putting up 20/10 in real life in Bagley. Both high potential, but one is actually producing now. Tough call for some GM.

I don't say that to project, I'm just saying, if you're going to judge a guy on his stat-lines, it's worth accounting for his minutes and why he's not getting as many.

For the most part, counting stats should be far down the list when it comes to evaluating players. Hunter's averaging 9 and 3 and he's getting hype as a lottery pick, for example.

I find it a bit scary projecting those guys that aren't putting up actual big numbers as well, but the past proves that it's misleading to put too much stock in to college raw numbers.

But if it's a guy that has the pedigree like Bagley or Ayton I don't think the stats are misleading. If it's Doug McDermott or maybe say TRAE YOUNG then yeah.

[Chicago-Bull-E]

Anyone have any thoughts on Shamorie Ponds? Reminds me of Brandon Jennings, might go second round, might go undrafted, might stay in school. Puts the ball in the bucket. 3 point shooting needs work though.

[GimmeDat]

It's dangerous to do per projections with NBA players. I definitely don't trust it for college guys when there actually is a guy putting up 20/10 in real life in Bagley. Both high potential, but one is actually producing now. Tough call for some GM.

I don't say that to project, I'm just saying, if you're going to judge a guy on his stat-lines, it's worth accounting for his minutes and why he's not getting as many.

For the most part, counting stats should be far down the list when it comes to evaluating players. Hunter's averaging 9 and 3 and he's getting hype as a lottery pick, for example.

I find it a bit scary projecting those guys that aren't putting up actual big numbers as well, but the past proves that it's misleading to put too much stock in to college raw numbers.

But if it's a guy that has the pedigree like Bagley or Ayton I don't think the stats are misleading. If it's Doug McDermott or maybe say TRAE YOUNG then yeah.

But that has nothing to do with pedigree. It has to do with the analysis of translatable NBA tools and skills.

[TheHrvReport]

1. Ayton
2. Bagley (close 2nd)
3. Doncic
4. Bamba
5. JJJ
6. MPJ
7. Trae Trae
8. Wendell Carter
9. Mikal Bridges
10. Sexton

[TheSuzerain]

Bagley and John Collins are pretty much doppelgangers in college.

[JohnnyKILLroy]

I think this is kind of unfair to say.

There are tons of guys who you could watch in HS and know they were going to be something special. I'm not even talking about guys like Lebron, Dwight, and Kobe who didn't go to College. Look at guys like Durant, DRose, Griffin.... when these guys were coming out of HS there was a ton of people calling them cant miss prospects.

When I look at Porter, I see a guy who has an NBA frame, crazy athleticism, the ability to dribble and create is own shot, and a very good shooter. I cant see those things not translating into the NBA. The dude looks like a special talent.

Porter hasn’t showed like any of the guys you mentioned. It’s not obvious with him.

He doesn’t have an NBA frame right now. He’s just tall. As far as I can tell he doesn’t have great length.

His handle is shaky.


Create his own shot? He creates pull up jumpers that’s it. He’s like a bad body Harrison Barnes.

He does look like a very good shooter. I’ll give him that.

He’s never showed to be anything on defense.

I’m super bummed he missed the season, of all the prospects in this draft I wanted to be wrong about him.

Wrong, wrong, wrong and wrong. What about his frame is not an nba frame?

His handle is far from shaky. He can get a rebound and take it the length of the court and score with it. You can't do that with a shaky handle.

He has tons of shot making ability. He can get space to make threes, he can pull up, he can post up, he can get the rim.

You're just completely inaccurate about Porter.

I think he’s too skinny to play the 4 now.
I think he’s too stiff to guard 3s.
I don’t see great length.

I also said I don’t think he has an NBA frame NOW. That can change so you might want to settle down and read a little more carefully.

Taking it the length of the court does not an elite handle make. That’s such a simpleton way off judging a guys handle. He has limited shake in the half court. He hasn’t shown the ability to be excellent in the box with his handle. All I’ve ever seen is him dribbling into jumpers mostly. Hate to break it to you but elite wings have to be able to handle the ball every which way in the half court.

Who’s he posting up - HS kids? .......hahahahahaha

Who’s getting to the rim against - HS kids?........hahahahaha

[JohnnyKILLroy]

Bagley and John Collins are pretty much doppelgangers in college.

I can see the similarities but I think Bagley has better size and Collins played 2yrs of college ball so Marvin might be a little farther along.

Since you made the comparison it’s also interesting in that one of the knocks on Collins was his shot blocking abilities which I think he has shown more of on the Hawks. Maybe Bagley does better also.

[WindyCityBorn]

I don't say that to project, I'm just saying, if you're going to judge a guy on his stat-lines, it's worth accounting for his minutes and why he's not getting as many.

For the most part, counting stats should be far down the list when it comes to evaluating players. Hunter's averaging 9 and 3 and he's getting hype as a lottery pick, for example.

I find it a bit scary projecting those guys that aren't putting up actual big numbers as well, but the past proves that it's misleading to put too much stock in to college raw numbers.

But if it's a guy that has the pedigree like Bagley or Ayton I don't think the stats are misleading. If it's Doug McDermott or maybe say TRAE YOUNG then yeah.

But that has nothing to do with pedigree. It has to do with the analysis of translatable NBA tools and skills.

I guess I had the wrong definition of pedigree then. It substituted it for blue chip prospect.

[JohnnyKILLroy]

Mikal Bridges I just hope he's not another Wesley Johnson. Him not being able to create is a problem.

I think he shows more body control and potential upside in the creation department compared to Wesley Johnson. Check out how smooth he looks in this video. I could almost imagine I was looking at McGrady in this clip (not trying to say that he has anywhere close to the creation upside of McGrady).

Read on Twitter

His footwork looks decent here, but in a lot of his other iso situations it looks fairly bad imo. So that is an area that he could potentially make big strides in his game going forward.

Also, I feel that due to how well Nova's offense runs in general, Mikal just sort of has the discipline and IQ to not settle for iso shots very often since they are typically not high percentage shots for almost anyone.

He hasn't had much success in one on one situations, but the sample size is so small. Last I saw, I think he was 7-19 in iso situations for around 40 percentile in college. Give him 2 or 3 more makes and he probably jumps up to the 80's or 90's.

According to the following 2 articles, Mikal's percentile for the following offensive situations are as follows

https://www.theringer.com/nba/2018/3/6/17082610/mikal-bridges-nba-draft-3-and-d

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2761580-2018-nba-draft-updated-big-board-entering-march

Notable Synergy Sports Numbers

Half-court offense: 98th percentile

Spot-up: 97th percentile

Jump shots: 91st percentile

Play Type Possessions PPP Percentile
P&R ball handler 46 0.978 88th
Post-up 39 1.051 88th
Off screen 27 1.296 90th
Isolation 19 0.737 40th

Those are obviously great numbers for spot up shooting, but they also shows some promise in some creation type situations as well imo. Plus, I've noticed a decent number of his "spot ups" are actually with someone basically guarding him straight up once he catches the ball. That ability is huge for someone aspiring to become a dangerous off ball creator/shooter.

I get your concerns, but Mikal is becoming my pretty clear choice if we stay around 8 and the draft goes according to most projections. I see a high floor and an underrated ceiling.

Great post. Thanks

[drosestruts]

Really enjoyed this Mikal Bridges profile on The Ringer - https://www.theringer.com/nba/2018/3/6/17082610/mikal-bridges-nba-draft-3-and-d

Few NCAA players in recent years have shot 3s and defended as well as Bridges. Even the best prospects are usually further along on one side of the ball than the other. Just compare Bridges to the lottery picks in last year’s draft. He makes 3s and free throws at the same rates as Luke Kennard and Lauri Markkanen, the two best shooters in the Class of 2017, and he gets blocks and steals at the same rates as Josh Jackson, arguably the best athlete. Players with Kennard’s stroke and Jackson’s defense don’t come around often. A guy like that can dominate without dominating the ball.

There are only nine players in the NBA this season with wingspans longer than 7 feet who are shooting better than 40 percent from 3 on more than two attempts per game. Most are stretch big men. The only perimeter players are Otto Porter Jr. and Kevin Durant.

Also talks about the impressive net ratings of guys like Otto Porter or Robert Covington. Not the best players on their team, but their teams play the best when they're on the court.

[GimmeDat]

If we're at 8 I'm definitely taking one of Mikal or Carter. Can't decide which one I like more, I think I give Carter the slight edge, but Mikal is such a good fit and a high impact player in today's league.

Was just looking at Josh Okogie, really solid wing. This draft is shaping up to be pretty deep, I'm annoyed we threw away our 2nd rounder again.

[kodo]

I find it a bit scary projecting those guys that aren't putting up actual big numbers as well, but the past proves that it's misleading to put too much stock in to college raw numbers.

KAT at Kentucky only produced 10 & 6, and played only 20 mpg. WCS was the "main" big man.
Booker on that same team scored 10 ppg, played about 20 mpg.
Donovan Mitchell his freshman year put up 7 ppg.

If they're young, I don't think low production indicates a lack of NBA level talent. And JJJ is almost a year younger than everyone else in the class, similar to Devin Booker.

Like Booker, that probably means Jackson won't produce in the NBA for a few years either.

[kwintz]

I guess the Pelicans are just going to run the table and finish the season on a f*]%ing 20 game win streak lolol


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[xpmar9x]

I"m not sold on JJJ being better than Porter or Bagley. He has too many games where his numbers are very anemic. I'd put him probably tied with Bomba, and after Bagley, Porter, Doncic and Ayton.

I think Bagley is gonna be a star. I have him right after Ayton. JJJ is a project. Not to the level of Bamba, but his offense is not very developed.

My only question about Bagley is can we start him next to Lauri?