Josh Giddey Thread 2.0

[Infinity2152]

Just curious, is anybody in here actually involved in pro basketball? Not being facetious, I think Doug might be, just asking. I'm going to assume agents at this level are pretty much top tier. They may be near the bottom in the top tier, but top tier nonetheless.

Personal experience: As a real estate agent and appraiser, I did a lot of analysis when coming up with market value. With appraisals, on site inspections, photos, measurements, then hours on the computer. There are established variables and methods that are universal. These agents are performing these calculations and coming up with Giddey's, Kuminga's, and Grimes market value. That value will not reflect a huge discount because there's no available money right now. Because if a team comes up with the money, that goes out the window and they get the full price. They are better at coming up with accurate market value than any fan. They're trained to do it, huge part of their job. I'm not saying I'm nearly the best among pros, but with the software, training, experience, access to advanced paid data, my analysis was always going to be far better than any non trained amateur.

I don't think these agents are just pulling numbers out of their *** and coming up with $30 mill. Yes, Suggs and Quickley's contracts will be used as comparables and adjusted by player for variables. That's how it's always been done, similar level players at similar ages in similar contract situations get the same money, usually better with an expanding cap. Arguing the detail differences between Quickley, Suggs, and Giddey is just arguing the adjustables, not the comp itself.

Giddey is easily replaceable? Okay, Giddey's gone. Takes the QO. Now replace him. Find me a 20, 7, and 6 guy who's under 23 and can lead this offense for years. For $20 mill or less. How do we get him, if it's just for cap space, let Giddey go and sign me up right now! We've had like 6 guys manning the PG position the last few years, Giddey's' the first to run the offense at an elite level beside Ball, who's gone. Kind of surprised to hear you say Giddey's easily replaceable, Sco. Don't think we've had a better PG than Giddey for at least 10-15 years, outside Ball. Do you?

He was a 20 ppg guy for 3 months when the Bulls were playing either tanking teams or teams with guys injured, for the most part. Frankly, the chances that he averages 20 ppg this year really hinge on the fact that there aren’t other, better players to take shots. 3 years ago he averaged around 18 ppg for the 2nd half - has never had an 18 ppg season since.

He will put up assists and rebounds, but so did Kris Dunn on the Bulls, and he defended well - as opposed to Giddey who is unplayably, Doug McDermott bad against guards, and passable against forwards. Elfrid Payton put up 11/7/5 for the Pels, the Knicks in 2 seasons… and is fringe in and out of the league. 3 years ago Russ put up 16/8/6 - and still gives you about 8/8/7 per 36…. And is a minimum guy because he doesn’t defend enough nowand can’t shoot well enough. He will get the minimum.

Cam Thomas just put up 24/4/3 a year after 23/3/3, and is a much better shooter - percentages being misleading as has been discussed - but is being offered a bit above the MLE.

The notion that it is a no brainer to offer Giddey 30 M is … idiotic. The Bulls are taking an appropriate position. Will likely end up a 2+1 deal. Giddey is massively overvaluing himself. Right now, even signing him to 25 M AAV could turn out to be terrible if the shooting doesn’t improve and the defense is as bad as it was vs Miami in the playoffs in game.

The notion that people are able to confidently state what Giddey is worth with no experience in the field, no calculations done, no comparables shown and act like it's not just an opinion is f**king idiotic. Y'all can debate among yourselves now, we're back to the passive insults and I'm good.

[Infinity2152]

[looking at four guys who are eligible to be signed by any team in the league and have not been able to draw a single offer that's even in the ballpark of what they're asking for] the agents for these guys must have an extraordinarily good sense of what they're worth

No, it's more likely that professional agents who get millionaire clients and keep them have absolutely no clue as to actual market value. Everyone got their jobs thru nepotism, not because they're actually trained. They're just here for amateurs to judge how they move.

I was done, but thought this useless sarcasm should be answered before I left. Here's a response. Way more likely you know market value better than all 4 of them. Go take their job, you could make millions. Have a deal signed to the detriment of your client by tomorrow for $18 mill AAV. Why go for $22mill, when you can get $18? Their agents should have started there in the first place.

[sco]

Just curious, is anybody in here actually involved in pro basketball? Not being facetious, I think Doug might be, just asking. I'm going to assume agents at this level are pretty much top tier. They may be near the bottom in the top tier, but top tier nonetheless.

Personal experience: As a real estate agent and appraiser, I did a lot of analysis when coming up with market value. With appraisals, on site inspections, photos, measurements, then hours on the computer. There are established variables and methods that are universal. These agents are performing these calculations and coming up with Giddey's, Kuminga's, and Grimes market value. That value will not reflect a huge discount because there's no available money right now. Because if a team comes up with the money, that goes out the window and they get the full price. They are better at coming up with accurate market value than any fan. They're trained to do it, huge part of their job. I'm not saying I'm nearly the best among pros, but with the software, training, experience, access to advanced paid data, my analysis was always going to be far better than any non trained amateur.

I don't think these agents are just pulling numbers out of their *** and coming up with $30 mill. Yes, Suggs and Quickley's contracts will be used as comparables and adjusted by player for variables. That's how it's always been done, similar level players at similar ages in similar contract situations get the same money, usually better with an expanding cap. Arguing the detail differences between Quickley, Suggs, and Giddey is just arguing the adjustables, not the comp itself.

Giddey is easily replaceable? Okay, Giddey's gone. Takes the QO. Now replace him. Find me a 20, 7, and 6 guy who's under 23 and can lead this offense for years. For $20 mill or less. How do we get him, if it's just for cap space, let Giddey go and sign me up right now! We've had like 6 guys manning the PG position the last few years, Giddey's' the first to run the offense at an elite level beside Ball, who's gone. Kind of surprised to hear you say Giddey's easily replaceable, Sco. Don't think we've had a better PG than Giddey for at least 10-15 years, outside Ball. Do you?

He was a 20 ppg guy for 3 months when the Bulls were playing either tanking teams or teams with guys injured, for the most part. Frankly, the chances that he averages 20 ppg this year really hinge on the fact that there aren’t other, better players to take shots. 3 years ago he averaged around 18 ppg for the 2nd half - has never had an 18 ppg season since.

He will put up assists and rebounds, but so did Kris Dunn on the Bulls, and he defended well - as opposed to Giddey who is unplayably, Doug McDermott bad against guards, and passable against forwards. Elfrid Payton put up 11/7/5 for the Pels, the Knicks in 2 seasons… and is fringe in and out of the league. 3 years ago Russ put up 16/8/6 - and still gives you about 8/8/7 per 36…. And is a minimum guy because he doesn’t defend enough nowand can’t shoot well enough. He will get the minimum.

Cam Thomas just put up 24/4/3 a year after 23/3/3, and is a much better shooter - percentages being misleading as has been discussed - but is being offered a bit above the MLE.

The notion that it is a no brainer to offer Giddey 30 M is … idiotic. The Bulls are taking an appropriate position. Will likely end up a 2+1 deal. Giddey is massively overvaluing himself. Right now, even signing him to 25 M AAV could turn out to be terrible if the shooting doesn’t improve and the defense is as bad as it was vs Miami in the playoffs in game.

The notion that people are able to confidently state what Giddey is worth with no experience in the field, no calculations done, no comparables shown and act like it's not just an opinion is f**king idiotic. Y'all can debate among yourselves now, we're back to the passive insults and I'm good.

You seem to be adament that what people are stating here is so wrong, and you have no experience in the field. Also, it seems to a source of stress for (not just) you that a deal isn't imminent. And your views are every bit as valid as mine, but it also means they are likely no more valid.

I think the mistake people make when thinking about RFA value is that it is the same as UFA value. I think the matching rights scare some teams away because, at the beginning of the FA period at least, they are tied up for several days waiting to see if the current team matches, and there is the opportunity cost of pursuing UFA's during that time, and then after the initial rush, many teams are salary constrained.

On Josh specifically, I feel like is value is diminished in addition by the fact that he almost requires you to build a team around him due to factors that are nearly unique to him. If you have Josh on your team, you need him to be your primary ball handler; however, unlike a high % teams, your primary ball handler won't then be your primary scorer. Also, on defense, he really needs to be your defacto SF or PF, because he can't really guard guards. And the whole "pay for performance for just 1/3 of a season" thing has to act as an additional deterrant to teams thinking about ponying up $30M AAV. Add to that there aren't a ton of teams who have a need for a PG that don't already have someone arguably as good or better on the roster (or a young guy they recently drafted to develop). Look, I'm not saying you can't make an argument for $30M, but I can see why there aren't any teams seemingly offering that. I think Giddey's agent would definitely have leaked something if there was even a whiff of discussion out there.

[jnrjr79]

The egg that will be on people's faces if they are wrong. Two very bad things can happen, and we want to give it months to happen.

1. A team like Utah, that is rebuilding, clears enough cap to make Giddey a $32 mill/AAV contract. Don't say it can't happen, I can show the math if needed. Don't say it would have happened already. Jazz didn't have extra cap space to start free agency. Bucs didn't have cap space to sign Turner, his offer didn't come day 1. That's just one team that can easily clear cap to make an offer. Either we match at $32 mill, or lose him for nothing.

It would have happened already.

You can’t tell people not to say the thing that is true and refutes the point!

2. Giddey takes the QO. We get one year of Giddey, then he's likely gone. Or we pay him much more than $30 mill. Certainly much more than th $22 mill they're allegedly offering. Situations like this are EXACTLY why players take the QO.

I think this is unlikely, but possible. I think the thing *you* have to realize, though, is not everyone views this as an obviously terrible outcome, because some folks hold Giddey in lower esteem than you do and are more concerned about overpaying him than retaining him.

I’m not one of those folks. I’d pay Giddey $25M/year based on that hot end of the season and hope for the best, but I certainly understand the perspective of people who think differently.

Because how do you prove it would have happened already? Without being able to prove it, it's opinion not fact. I can ask people to stop spouting opinions as facts, unless they can prove it somehow. Because it hasn't happened is not proof.

Yes, it’s an opinion. Just using common sense!

I don’t know for a fact the sun will come up tomorrow, but I’m nevertheless confident saying it will.

[MGB8]

Just curious, is anybody in here actually involved in pro basketball? Not being facetious, I think Doug might be, just asking. I'm going to assume agents at this level are pretty much top tier. They may be near the bottom in the top tier, but top tier nonetheless.

Personal experience: As a real estate agent and appraiser, I did a lot of analysis when coming up with market value. With appraisals, on site inspections, photos, measurements, then hours on the computer. There are established variables and methods that are universal. These agents are performing these calculations and coming up with Giddey's, Kuminga's, and Grimes market value. That value will not reflect a huge discount because there's no available money right now. Because if a team comes up with the money, that goes out the window and they get the full price. They are better at coming up with accurate market value than any fan. They're trained to do it, huge part of their job. I'm not saying I'm nearly the best among pros, but with the software, training, experience, access to advanced paid data, my analysis was always going to be far better than any non trained amateur.

I don't think these agents are just pulling numbers out of their *** and coming up with $30 mill. Yes, Suggs and Quickley's contracts will be used as comparables and adjusted by player for variables. That's how it's always been done, similar level players at similar ages in similar contract situations get the same money, usually better with an expanding cap. Arguing the detail differences between Quickley, Suggs, and Giddey is just arguing the adjustables, not the comp itself.

Giddey is easily replaceable? Okay, Giddey's gone. Takes the QO. Now replace him. Find me a 20, 7, and 6 guy who's under 23 and can lead this offense for years. For $20 mill or less. How do we get him, if it's just for cap space, let Giddey go and sign me up right now! We've had like 6 guys manning the PG position the last few years, Giddey's' the first to run the offense at an elite level beside Ball, who's gone. Kind of surprised to hear you say Giddey's easily replaceable, Sco. Don't think we've had a better PG than Giddey for at least 10-15 years, outside Ball. Do you?

He was a 20 ppg guy for 3 months when the Bulls were playing either tanking teams or teams with guys injured, for the most part. Frankly, the chances that he averages 20 ppg this year really hinge on the fact that there aren’t other, better players to take shots. 3 years ago he averaged around 18 ppg for the 2nd half - has never had an 18 ppg season since.

He will put up assists and rebounds, but so did Kris Dunn on the Bulls, and he defended well - as opposed to Giddey who is unplayably, Doug McDermott bad against guards, and passable against forwards. Elfrid Payton put up 11/7/5 for the Pels, the Knicks in 2 seasons… and is fringe in and out of the league. 3 years ago Russ put up 16/8/6 - and still gives you about 8/8/7 per 36…. And is a minimum guy because he doesn’t defend enough nowand can’t shoot well enough. He will get the minimum.

Cam Thomas just put up 24/4/3 a year after 23/3/3, and is a much better shooter - percentages being misleading as has been discussed - but is being offered a bit above the MLE.

The notion that it is a no brainer to offer Giddey 30 M is … idiotic. The Bulls are taking an appropriate position. Will likely end up a 2+1 deal. Giddey is massively overvaluing himself. Right now, even signing him to 25 M AAV could turn out to be terrible if the shooting doesn’t improve and the defense is as bad as it was vs Miami in the playoffs in game.

The notion that people are able to confidently state what Giddey is worth with no experience in the field, no calculations done, no comparables shown and act like it's not just an opinion is f**king idiotic. Y'all can debate among yourselves now, we're back to the passive insults and I'm good.

The above list is full of comparators - ones with high levels of production getting far smaller offers. This isn’t real estate, but even there, while you may have a normalized value per square foot in an area, there is huge variation based on things like the type of street, where on the street, specific location benefits and harms, bathrooms and quality there, room size, closet layout, kitchen quality, etc.

Meanwhile, not any substantive response to the fact that 1) Giddey did not put up the numbers you stated for a full season - he is not a proven 20 ppg guy (and has in past put up higher in a long spurt, then come down), but 2) it is highly likely that you could pay a Russ or Elfrid Payton a low salary but, with equivalent touches to what Giddey got, they would get similar counting stats. Vuc gets great counting stats and is not valued. No good D, no high value.

Many, maybe most here - and the Bulls management team, don’t agree with you. You can believe what you believe, but the insistence that folks who disagree are clear cut wrong is completely, 100% unjustifiable. Giddey has only two years with a positive plus minus / on-off. Both are very mild, sub 1 point positives, per BBR. 82games gives him even less positive impact on the Bulls, but a decent +3.2 in his last year on the Thunder - who benched him in the playoffs and traded him to pay Alex Caruso 20 M per year. If he were a 30 M AAV player, wouldn’t you expect better?

Like Vuc, Giddey puts up good counting stats. But you insist on ignoring the huge flaws in Giddey’s game. He is a bottom quartile def save player against guards - and that may be being kind. While he put up a good percentage from 3 on mid volume, the shot selection shows that teams sagged of him because they could - and while he wasn’t awful, he didn’t do enough to make them pay for collapsing away from him - basically league average TS on those shots. Both those weakness remained present even in Giddey’s hot streak, which benefited from tanking teams or injured players.

You want to talk counting stats, sans D - Giddey had a PER of 18.1 - comparable to lots of great players, but also lots of mid tier guys and reserves, a la fellow RFA Cam Thomas, Obi Toppin, TJ McConnell, John Collins, Tari Eason, Hartenstein, Payton Pritchard, TJD, Boucher, Paul Reed… less than fellow Bull Jalen Smith - though the range of quality of players at various PER points shows you how little counting stats, even when adjusted for time, really tell you about a player’s quality.

[MGB8]

[looking at four guys who are eligible to be signed by any team in the league and have not been able to draw a single offer that's even in the ballpark of what they're asking for] the agents for these guys must have an extraordinarily good sense of what they're worth

No, it's more likely that professional agents who get millionaire clients and keep them have absolutely no clue as to actual market value. Everyone got their jobs thru nepotism, not because they're actually trained. They're just here for amateurs to judge how they move.

I was done, but thought this useless sarcasm should be answered before I left. Here's a response. Way more likely you know market value better than all 4 of them. Go take their job, you could make millions. Have a deal signed to the detriment of your client by tomorrow for $18 mill AAV. Why go for $22mill, when you can get $18? Their agents should have started there in the first place.

Well, using that logic, since AKME know 10000000x more than you about negotiating and market value in the NBA context, you have zero place to have n opinion, much less criticize them.

They know much more than you, and by your logic they must be right, and thus you must be wrong.

Also, those professionals never make mistakes, agents never over value their players (or listed properties), and there is no point on having message boards that are all about critiquing these things.

[Jstock12]

There are quite a few incompetent player agents. I remember D Motiejunas declining a 35million offer to get paid 600k the following year, and then being out of the league the year after. All based on the advice of his agent:

Spoiler:

[WesPeace]

I think we learned that already, that people working professionaly in prosports leagues ala NBA, NHL, NFL - many many times doesnt mean they are smarter than us normies regarding players abilities, contract normality etc.. they are just connected and involved

[dougthonus]

There are quite a few incompetent player agents. I remember D Motiejunas declining a 35million offer to get paid 600k the following year, and then being out of the league the year after. All based on the advice of his agent:

Not specific to any single story or agent, but agents are under a crap ton of pressure to get you an insane deal too. If they sign a guy who ends up underpaid, every other agent uses it against them to try to steal their clients. It's particularly rough for smaller or emerging agents that are at constant threat of being poached by the big boys.

[coldfish]

[looking at four guys who are eligible to be signed by any team in the league and have not been able to draw a single offer that's even in the ballpark of what they're asking for] the agents for these guys must have an extraordinarily good sense of what they're worth

No, it's more likely that professional agents who get millionaire clients and keep them have absolutely no clue as to actual market value. Everyone got their jobs thru nepotism, not because they're actually trained. They're just here for amateurs to judge how they move.

I was done, but thought this useless sarcasm should be answered before I left. Here's a response. Way more likely you know market value better than all 4 of them. Go take their job, you could make millions. Have a deal signed to the detriment of your client by tomorrow for $18 mill AAV. Why go for $22mill, when you can get $18? Their agents should have started there in the first place.

Not trying to be insulting or sarcastic here.

I understand the case to be made that Giddey is worth $30m per year. That said, the NBA FA process is not a liquid market like others. Its a game of musical chairs where you either land on a team with capspace and get a big bag or get nothing. The stories of NBA players overestimating their value and completely screwing themselves are legion.

Overall, I think that the Bulls and Giddey will come together on a contract at the last minute. Chicago doesn't want Giddey to walk. Giddey doesn't want to risk the QO. I suspect that incentives and option years will be used to bridge a good bit of the gap.

[League Circles]

Just curious, is anybody in here actually involved in pro basketball? Not being facetious, I think Doug might be, just asking. I'm going to assume agents at this level are pretty much top tier. They may be near the bottom in the top tier, but top tier nonetheless.

Personal experience: As a real estate agent and appraiser, I did a lot of analysis when coming up with market value. With appraisals, on site inspections, photos, measurements, then hours on the computer. There are established variables and methods that are universal. These agents are performing these calculations and coming up with Giddey's, Kuminga's, and Grimes market value. That value will not reflect a huge discount because there's no available money right now. Because if a team comes up with the money, that goes out the window and they get the full price. They are better at coming up with accurate market value than any fan. They're trained to do it, huge part of their job. I'm not saying I'm nearly the best among pros, but with the software, training, experience, access to advanced paid data, my analysis was always going to be far better than any non trained amateur.

I don't think these agents are just pulling numbers out of their *** and coming up with $30 mill. Yes, Suggs and Quickley's contracts will be used as comparables and adjusted by player for variables. That's how it's always been done, similar level players at similar ages in similar contract situations get the same money, usually better with an expanding cap. Arguing the detail differences between Quickley, Suggs, and Giddey is just arguing the adjustables, not the comp itself.

Giddey is easily replaceable? Okay, Giddey's gone. Takes the QO. Now replace him. Find me a 20, 7, and 6 guy who's under 23 and can lead this offense for years. For $20 mill or less. How do we get him, if it's just for cap space, let Giddey go and sign me up right now! We've had like 6 guys manning the PG position the last few years, Giddey's' the first to run the offense at an elite level beside Ball, who's gone. Kind of surprised to hear you say Giddey's easily replaceable, Sco. Don't think we've had a better PG than Giddey for at least 10-15 years, outside Ball. Do you?

He was a 20 ppg guy for 3 months when the Bulls were playing either tanking teams or teams with guys injured, for the most part. Frankly, the chances that he averages 20 ppg this year really hinge on the fact that there aren’t other, better players to take shots. 3 years ago he averaged around 18 ppg for the 2nd half - has never had an 18 ppg season since.

He will put up assists and rebounds, but so did Kris Dunn on the Bulls, and he defended well - as opposed to Giddey who is unplayably, Doug McDermott bad against guards, and passable against forwards. Elfrid Payton put up 11/7/5 for the Pels, the Knicks in 2 seasons… and is fringe in and out of the league. 3 years ago Russ put up 16/8/6 - and still gives you about 8/8/7 per 36…. And is a minimum guy because he doesn’t defend enough nowand can’t shoot well enough. He will get the minimum.

Cam Thomas just put up 24/4/3 a year after 23/3/3, and is a much better shooter - percentages being misleading as has been discussed - but is being offered a bit above the MLE.

The notion that it is a no brainer to offer Giddey 30 M is … idiotic. The Bulls are taking an appropriate position. Will likely end up a 2+1 deal. Giddey is massively overvaluing himself. Right now, even signing him to 25 M AAV could turn out to be terrible if the shooting doesn’t improve and the defense is as bad as it was vs Miami in the playoffs in game.

The notion that people are able to confidently state what Giddey is worth with no experience in the field, no calculations done, no comparables shown and act like it's not just an opinion is f**king idiotic. Y'all can debate among yourselves now, we're back to the passive insults and I'm good.

These guys aren't commodities, they're all too unique, and the fact that the market isn't remotely close to being a free market means that the notion that there is some important number close to what he's "truly" worth is just wrong. Yeah, agents will come up with comps, sure. But there really is no meaningful comp and players can be worth wildly more or less to various teams. This isn't like your real estate career, it's a totally different animal.

[Infinity2152]

I don't think there's a such thing as no comp. There are unique players, but they are extremely rare and you can still find comps. Let's look at comparison points:

Physicals:
Age: 22 (all players 25 and under)
Contract year: RFA, year 5 (Every year 5 RFA in the last 5 years)
Position: Guard/Forward, lead playmaker (Maybe half the league)
Height: 6'8" (Players between 6'6 and 6'9)
Athleticism: Average, maybe slightly below
Shooting: (looks average, Bulls probably using career in their comps, Agent using last season)
Would start using the last four years of data, 30 first round picks each year, maybe 30-50 players fit this range


Then raw production: (Again, Bulls probably using the whole season, Giddey's agent probably using after Lavine left and Giddey took over the offense)

Scoring: 15pts/gm season
Rebounds: 8.1
Assists: 7.2
Steals: 1.2
Blocks: .6

Few players will hit all three in points, rebounds and assists, many will hit several of them including stocks.

Major Advanced Stats: (Hard to quantify defense so for comparison, would need to use some numbers:
TS%: 57%
Steal rate 1.9
Block rate: 1.8
PER 18.1
VORP 2.7
BPM 3.0

I could go on. For analysis I'd use every NBA player whose reached RFA in the last five years, and input all those variables. Of course nobody is going to exactly match him. A computer would find a many that are similar in a lot of them. They'd find a few who were similar in most of them. Then you adjust for each difference. Adjustments vary by the importance of a factor. Contracts can't be negotiated by feelings of value, there has to be some computational proven method to present your opinion of value. Those factors have to be universally accepted in order for deals to ever get made.

I see people saying it's much different than houses, I respectfully object and I'll give you an example. My home is bigger than 90% of the homes on my block (height for position). My house is pretty new (22 year old player). Say I had the same number of bedrooms (average scoring), kitchen plus kitchenette (above average rebounding), and 1 extra bathrooms (above average assists). No basement at all (poor defense).

There will be no houses sold within the last 3 months close enough to it. You still have to find comps. You extend the search to 6 months. You extend the geographical range (generally want to be as close physically to the subject house as possibles. The reason you try to find close to exact matches are you don't want a lot of adjustments, especially in major areas. No basement or an extra bathroom count more than having a larger kitchen, for instance. As an agent, I could never say" I can't do an appraisal because there are no similar houses sold." You have to find the closest houses and adjust.

The markets are entirely different, with salary caps, RFA, etc, but there has to be an accepted set of comparison points most teams use. The thing about market value is it generally gives you a range. Market value is in practicality the average price you can get for what you're selling. In the NBA, there's a very limited number of buyers, so market affects whether a players signs or not and affects market value. When homes are not selling in an area, crime is going up, etc you have to adjust the price you came up with to fit the market or wait until the market rebounds. Very similar to Giddey's situation. Just my personal view,

[Stratmaster]

As we assess (debate?) a number here is more information to consider.

There are 20 point guards in the league making over 24 mil this season. The 21st highest paid drops all the way to 19 million. Keep in mind that there are PG's still on rookie contracts. Three of them are starters. Also, keep in mind that players who signed 2,3 or 4 years ago are in a lower scale than what new contacts are and will be. That's just how the system is designed as the salary cap continues to skyrocket.

If you don't believe Giddey is or will be a top 25 PG, then a position that he should make less than 24 mil would make sense. If you think he is a top 25 PG, then somewhere north of 24.x million makes sense.

There is always the approach that since there are no capable suitors out there, the Bulls should pay him less than he is worth. I believe that approach is a step toward disaster. Assuming you want Giddey (if not there probably isn't a reason for you to be participating in a number discussion), do you want an unhappy guy at 22 mil over a happy guy at 27?

Meanwhile, more reports are describing Giddey as "frustrated" and the negotiations are being described with words like "tense" and "contentious".

AKME is playing hardball on the wrong contract. Since the Williams contract is often brought up, THAT should have been the hardball approach for reasons I have given many times and that proved to be accurate (I am like a blind squirrel).

I'm not saying you hand the kid 30 mil AAV. But the player started at 30. He certainly would take a front loaded 4 year with the 4th being a player option at 25-26 AAV. Offer it to him and get it over with.

[FecesOfDeath]

It's starting to become clear that the entire league, the Bulls included, is waiting for Doncic to sign or not sign his extension with the Lakers, before teams start getting into other transactions. Once Doncic assumingly signs his extension, then the Bulls will likely ramp up negotiations with Giddey very quickly.

[Stratmaster]

It's starting to become clear that the entire league, the Bulls included, is waiting for Doncic to sign or not sign his extension with the Lakers, before teams start getting into other transactions. Once Doncic assumingly signs his extension, then the Bulls will likely ramp up negotiations with Giddey very quickly.

Help me understand why it makes sense for the Bulls to wait on the Doncic contract to sign Giddey.

I'm not saying it doesn't make sense or refuting it. Sincerely trying to understand...

[Infinity2152]

As we assess (debate?) a number here is more information to consider.

There are 20 point guards in the league making over 24 mil this season. The 21st highest paid drops all the way to 19 million. Keep in mind that there are PG's still on rookie contracts. Three of them are starters. Also, keep in mind that players who signed 2,3 or 4 years ago are in a lower scale than what new contacts are and will be. That's just how the system is designed as the salary cap continues to skyrocket.

If you don't believe Giddey is or will be a top 25 PG, then a position that he should make less than 24 mil would make sense. If you think he is a top 25 PG, then somewhere north of 24.x million makes sense.

There is always the approach that since there are no capable suitors out there, the Bulls should pay him less than he is worth. I believe that approach is a step toward disaster. Assuming you want Giddey (if not there probably isn't a reason for you to be participating in a number discussion), do you want an unhappy guy at 22 mil over a happy guy at 27?

Meanwhile, more reports are describing Giddey as "frustrated" and the negotiations are being described with words like "tense" and "contentious".

AKME is playing hardball on the wrong contract. Since the Williams contract is often brought up, THAT should have been the hardball approach for reasons I have given many times and that proved to be accurate (I am like a blind squirrel).

I'm not saying you hand the kid 30 mil AAV. But the player started at 30. He certainly would take a front loaded 4 year with the 4th being a player option at 25-26 AAV. Offer it to him and get it over with.

100% agree.

Myles Turner bashed the Pacers on his way out, after just reaching the Finals with them. Pacers are expressing regret. Cam Thomas just deleted all Brooklyn Nets mentions from his social media. Saw a report that the reason the Warriors aren't moving forward on Horford is because it will take them above the second cap, and they can't match offers for Kuminga. They know the Jazz could clear the space to make an offer they can't match. Kuminga likely knows this. Quentin Grimes posted a message that fans are saying means he's ready to go back to his home state of Texas. He was willing to re-sign. These are young guys, there are consequences to negotiating like this, even if you might save a little money.

I'm also not saying you should just hand him $30 mill, but we should appear to be negotiating in good faith, imo. We're telling the world how much we want and need him, while lowballing him. Bulls are not saying the same things as many in here, they will just let him leave or be good if he takes the QO. Many times I let my wife win the argument, just let it go, to have peace in the house. That's more important to me than winning every argument. Somebody has to be the adult and make the first concession.

What's the risk/reward of this current approach? Save $5-6 mill annually on a 22 year old potential All-Star starter's salary vs losing him and/or destroying the working relationship? Also a bad look to Coby White and any other prospective free agents. They see exactly what they'd have to look forward to when the Bulls have leverage, even with a young starter. I seriously doubt many NBA players think Giddey should get $22 mill or less. Coby will likely have many suitors as one of the top UFA's, he'll have the leverage then.

[Jcool0]

This is starting to look like because they got raked over the coals for the Williams signing they are going hardball against Giddey which is the wrong lesson to learn from the Williams debacle. Which just proves how bad this front office is.

[Infinity2152]

This is starting to look like because they got raked over the coals for the Williams signing they are going hardball against Giddey which is the wrong lesson to learn from the Williams debacle. Which just proves how bad this front office is.

That's what I said before, lol. Giddey's only been here a year, and shown way more than Pat. They're not nearly the same caliber of player at this stage, or approach the game with the same intensity.

He came to the team saying he was going to want $30 mill. Sure the Bulls had discussions with him then. Would love to know how that discussion went. Specifically, if the Bulls said "If you play great, we'll talk about that $30 mill". I'm sure they talked about it when that number came out.

If they said anything like that, I could see him feeling he was lied to. Just don't think they would have told him "No matter how good you play, we're still not giving you close to that." Because he played pretty damn well. Don't know what else he could have shown in one season, short of an instant huge leap and immediate All-Star. He improved, significantly in some areas, in pretty much every aspect of his game and was effective.

Think a lot of us are equally stung. Can't say how many times Pat Will's contract has come up in this thread, lmao! It has nothing to do with it, and it's a major discussion point.

[coldfish]

I don't think there's a such thing as no comp. There are unique players, but they are extremely rare and you can still find comps. Let's look at comparison points:

Physicals:
Age: 22 (all players 25 and under)
Contract year: RFA, year 5 (Every year 5 RFA in the last 5 years)
Position: Guard/Forward, lead playmaker (Maybe half the league)
Height: 6'8" (Players between 6'6 and 6'9)
Athleticism: Average, maybe slightly below
Shooting: (looks average, Bulls probably using career in their comps, Agent using last season)
Would start using the last four years of data, 30 first round picks each year, maybe 30-50 players fit this range


Then raw production: (Again, Bulls probably using the whole season, Giddey's agent probably using after Lavine left and Giddey took over the offense)

Scoring: 15pts/gm season
Rebounds: 8.1
Assists: 7.2
Steals: 1.2
Blocks: .6

Few players will hit all three in points, rebounds and assists, many will hit several of them including stocks.

Major Advanced Stats: (Hard to quantify defense so for comparison, would need to use some numbers:
TS%: 57%
Steal rate 1.9
Block rate: 1.8
PER 18.1
VORP 2.7
BPM 3.0

I could go on. For analysis I'd use every NBA player whose reached RFA in the last five years, and input all those variables. Of course nobody is going to exactly match him. A computer would find a many that are similar in a lot of them. They'd find a few who were similar in most of them. Then you adjust for each difference. Adjustments vary by the importance of a factor. Contracts can't be negotiated by feelings of value, there has to be some computational proven method to present your opinion of value. Those factors have to be universally accepted in order for deals to ever get made.

I see people saying it's much different than houses, I respectfully object and I'll give you an example. My home is bigger than 90% of the homes on my block (height for position). My house is pretty new (22 year old player). Say I had the same number of bedrooms (average scoring), kitchen plus kitchenette (above average rebounding), and 1 extra bathrooms (above average assists). No basement at all (poor defense).

There will be no houses sold within the last 3 months close enough to it. You still have to find comps. You extend the search to 6 months. You extend the geographical range (generally want to be as close physically to the subject house as possibles. The reason you try to find close to exact matches are you don't want a lot of adjustments, especially in major areas. No basement or an extra bathroom count more than having a larger kitchen, for instance. As an agent, I could never say" I can't do an appraisal because there are no similar houses sold." You have to find the closest houses and adjust.

The markets are entirely different, with salary caps, RFA, etc, but there has to be an accepted set of comparison points most teams use. The thing about market value is it generally gives you a range. Market value is in practicality the average price you can get for what you're selling. In the NBA, there's a very limited number of buyers, so market affects whether a players signs or not and affects market value. When homes are not selling in an area, crime is going up, etc you have to adjust the price you came up with to fit the market or wait until the market rebounds. Very similar to Giddey's situation. Just my personal view,

As of right now, no one on the planet is allowed to offer Giddey more than the MLE other than the Bulls. That's a huge market distortion that warps valuation. Imagine if that on your street, the government imposed a cap on what people were allowed to sell their house for in the next year. Giddey has a choice to take the Bulls offer or take the QO (ie, lose like $17m @a $25m contract) and hope to get a better offer next year when again, there aren't many teams who will have capspace to offer him more than the MLE.

The fact that Giddey has to give up $17m now in hopes of getting more than what Chicago is offering next year gives the Bulls ridiculous leverage.

[coldfish]

This is starting to look like because they got raked over the coals for the Williams signing they are going hardball against Giddey which is the wrong lesson to learn from the Williams debacle. Which just proves how bad this front office is.

IMO, waiting to the last minute in these situations is the norm. The Bulls misread the market last year and thought Patrick would get a huge offer if he hit RFA so they paid a premium to lock him up early. The Bulls read the market on Giddey correctly and now they will reap the financial rewards.