OT: COVID-19 thread #4

[dice]

https://www.peachtreehoops.com/2021/10/3/22706769/former-atlanta-hawks-guard-brandon-goodwin-claims-covid-19-vaccine-ended-his-season

Attempts to verify this with Mark Zuckerberg or Jeff Bezos were unsuccessful.

you think that ZUCKERBERG is trying to stifle discussion on potential vaccine side effects?

[Dresden]

https://www.peachtreehoops.com/2021/10/3/22706769/former-atlanta-hawks-guard-brandon-goodwin-claims-covid-19-vaccine-ended-his-season

Attempts to verify this with Mark Zuckerberg or Jeff Bezos were unsuccessful.

you think that ZUCKERBERG is trying to stifle discussion on potential vaccine side effects?

What he puts up is just meant to get a reaction. I don't think he's interested in a real discussion about any of this. People have disproved one thing after another that he asserts, and he just moves on to another provocation.

[dice]

https://www.peachtreehoops.com/2021/10/3/22706769/former-atlanta-hawks-guard-brandon-goodwin-claims-covid-19-vaccine-ended-his-season

Attempts to verify this with Mark Zuckerberg or Jeff Bezos were unsuccessful.

you think that ZUCKERBERG is trying to stifle discussion on potential vaccine side effects?

What he puts up is just meant to get a reaction. I don't think he's interested in a real discussion about any of this. People have disproved one thing after another that he asserts, and he just moves on to another provocation.

i think he's parroting stuff that's actually being discussed on right wing media. i'd say "far right", but the right has more or less consolidated at this point

the question is why he thinks he's going to convert anyone who hasn't already been infected by the mindset

[Dresden]

you think that ZUCKERBERG is trying to stifle discussion on potential vaccine side effects?

What he puts up is just meant to get a reaction. I don't think he's interested in a real discussion about any of this. People have disproved one thing after another that he asserts, and he just moves on to another provocation.

i think he's parroting stuff that's actually being discussed on right wing media. i'd say "far right", but the right has more or less consolidated at this point

the question is why he thinks he's going to convert anyone who hasn't already been infected by the mindset

The intention is not to convert, just to provoke- just to throw gasoline on a fire and then stand back and watch the flames.

[Almost Retired]

when the 1st vaccine was APPROVED, not just available, it gave companies the legal cover to mandate their use and I have always felt that was the best avenue, make anti-vaccers CHOSE, work or vaccinate, go to your favorite restaurant or vaccinate, go to your son's HS basketball game or vaccinate. We are seeing that and it is good.

Your cogent arguments have won me over. So I agree, make people choose between working or the vaccines. We could also adopt the policy Germany seems to be pursuing and deny the unvaccinated access to grocery stores. If that doesn't work we might have to resort to internment camps like we did to the Japanese in World War 2. It is, after all, a national emergency. We must do everything we can to protect the vaccinated from the unvaccinated by forcing upon them the vaccines that did not protect the vaccinated sufficiently from the virus in the first place. Makes perfect sense to me now that I see things your way.

[coldfish]

when the 1st vaccine was APPROVED, not just available, it gave companies the legal cover to mandate their use and I have always felt that was the best avenue, make anti-vaccers CHOSE, work or vaccinate, go to your favorite restaurant or vaccinate, go to your son's HS basketball game or vaccinate. We are seeing that and it is good.

Your cogent arguments have won me over. So I agree, make people choose between working or the vaccines. We could also adopt the policy Germany seems to be pursuing and deny the unvaccinated access to grocery stores. If that doesn't work we might have to resort to internment camps like we did to the Japanese in World War 2. It is, after all, a national emergency. We must do everything we can to protect the vaccinated from the unvaccinated by forcing upon them the vaccines that did not protect the vaccinated sufficiently from the virus in the first place. Makes perfect sense to me now that I see things your way.

I privately asked you to reduce your volume on the covid thread and you said you were going to vacate it. You have not done so and continue to make the thread about you and your opinions. This is now in the realm of derailing and is a violation of board rules.

Consider this a public warning. Continued violation will lead to further action.

[waffle]

from the CDC today:

Notably, people who recovered from COVID-19 and therefore likely have some level of natural immunity are considered unvaccinated by the CDC. Studies show unvaccinated COVID-19 survivors are more than twice as likely to be reinfected by the virus than those who are fully vaccinated.

and confirming what we already knew:

In August, the most recent full month for which data is available, unvaccinated people were more than 6 times more likely to test positive for COVID-19 than their fully vaccinated peers were ― and more than 11 times more likely to die from it

[Dresden]

from the CDC today:

Notably, people who recovered from COVID-19 and therefore likely have some level of natural immunity are considered unvaccinated by the CDC. Studies show unvaccinated COVID-19 survivors are more than twice as likely to be reinfected by the virus than those who are fully vaccinated.

and confirming what we already knew:

In August, the most recent full month for which data is available, unvaccinated people were more than 6 times more likely to test positive for COVID-19 than their fully vaccinated peers were ― and more than 11 times more likely to die from it

That's right. Natural immunity is pretty good, but it still is a very good idea to get vaccinated. I imagine those who have both had Covid and have been vaccinated will have the best immunity of all, all other factors being equal. In fact, in parts of Europe, their policy is that if you have had Covid, you only need one shot of the Pfizer or Moderna, not two.

Speaking of which, it looks like those who had the Moderna or J and J vaccine will also now be recommended to get boosters. But maybe at least with the Moderna, it will be less of a dose than the first two shots.

[dice]

from the CDC today:

Notably, people who recovered from COVID-19 and therefore likely have some level of natural immunity are considered unvaccinated by the CDC. Studies show unvaccinated COVID-19 survivors are more than twice as likely to be reinfected by the virus than those who are fully vaccinated.

and confirming what we already knew:

In August, the most recent full month for which data is available, unvaccinated people were more than 6 times more likely to test positive for COVID-19 than their fully vaccinated peers were ― and more than 11 times more likely to die from it

That's right. Natural immunity is pretty good, but it still is a very good idea to get vaccinated. I imagine those who have both had Covid and have been vaccinated will have the best immunity of all, all other factors being equal. In fact, in parts of Europe, their policy is that if you have had Covid, you only need one shot of the Pfizer or Moderna, not two.

Speaking of which, it looks like those who had the Moderna or J and J vaccine will also now be recommended to get boosters. But maybe at least with the Moderna, it will be less of a dose than the first two shots.

i believe that i heard that for those who were initially vaxxed with J&J, they may recommend getting a booster w/ pfizer or moderna

also, joe rogan saying on his podcast w/ sanjay gupta that he thinks it would be a good idea to get the vaccine and then also get infected to maximize immunity. not sure if serious, but it doesn't make any sense to contract COVID in an effort to maximize protection against...COVID. that's like saying a person should get hit by a truck to prepare his body for getting hit by a truck the next time

[dice]

when the 1st vaccine was APPROVED, not just available, it gave companies the legal cover to mandate their use and I have always felt that was the best avenue, make anti-vaccers CHOSE, work or vaccinate, go to your favorite restaurant or vaccinate, go to your son's HS basketball game or vaccinate. We are seeing that and it is good.

Your cogent arguments have won me over. So I agree, make people choose between working or the vaccines. We could also adopt the policy Germany seems to be pursuing and deny the unvaccinated access to grocery stores. If that doesn't work we might have to resort to internment camps like we did to the Japanese in World War 2. It is, after all, a national emergency. We must do everything we can to protect the vaccinated from the unvaccinated by forcing upon them the vaccines that did not protect the vaccinated sufficiently from the virus in the first place. Makes perfect sense to me now that I see things your way.

do you not see the difference between individual entities mandating vaccination for entry rather than a government mandate?

again, the US government has at no point even imposed a lockdown! the most heavy-handed they've gotten is very reasonable travel restrictions for EVERYBODY and requiring either vaccination or regular testing for large businesses

even the state of illinois, which has been relatively strict, is not requiring vaccinations for private businesses. they're just requiring masks and (unfortunately) not being vigilant about enforcement

[dougthonus]

from the CDC today:

Notably, people who recovered from COVID-19 and therefore likely have some level of natural immunity are considered unvaccinated by the CDC. Studies show unvaccinated COVID-19 survivors are more than twice as likely to be reinfected by the virus than those who are fully vaccinated.

Just FYI, I looked up the study and the media title for it is really misleading, what the study shows is:
Those whom were not vaccinated and got COVID were 2.34x as likely to get COVID again compared to those whom were not vaccinated and got COVID then got vaccinated.

The study does so by comparing people whom had COVID in 2020, got vaccinated, and whether they had a second breakthrough case within a certain date range. So a few things to note about this:
1: The people whom had natural immunity did not have Delta previously but had Alpha
2: This does not compare natural immunity to the vaccine, it compares natural immunity + vaccine to natural immunity
3: The natural immunity in this case would be considerably old, since it is comparing COVID 2020 cases to people infected up through midpoint of 2021

I think it's probably intuitively obvious that natural immunity + a vaccine works better than natural immunity. I'm not sure what else I would take from this study though.

and confirming what we already knew:

In August, the most recent full month for which data is available, unvaccinated people were more than 6 times more likely to test positive for COVID-19 than their fully vaccinated peers were ― and more than 11 times more likely to die from it

While also true, I don't think you are setting the context of this data reasonably vs the first sentence you make as there is a strong implication that natural immunity people will have these statistics, and I don't think that is true. Particularly if your natural immunity is in the Delta variant era.

If your natural immunity was from the Alpha variant era (2020 or earlier) then your protection has likely waned, but much like with vaccines, I don't think we really have a robust idea about how much. Also, people develop antibodies very differently from natural infection so there will be far more variance individually which is another argument to why everyone should just get vaccinated anyway. Some people may have robust immune responses to natural infection and others won't. You really don't know which group you are in without a number of tests which are more invasive than just getting the vaccine anyway.

Even if you have Delta immunity, I'd get vaccinated. It can only benefit you. I'd love to see the numbers on it to know how it fairs vs the vaccine immunity alone thing, but that is more of a curiosity for me. My guess is Delta based immunity is actually stronger than the vaccine and the CDC probably doesn't want to post that because they don't want to muddy the issue and have people not get vaccinated. (I'd imagine these numbers should be commonly available for research even without a specific study but just data mining).

[bulls_troy]

Australia Covid related. Victorian PM Daniel Andrews is opening up the state from lockdown despite the fact the state is still recording at least 1800 new cases a day. Apparently it's a reward for Victorians getting vaxxed. They are at 66% double vaxxed and the target is 80%.

There was a period of time where he was off work due to a serious back injury, and Victoria got Covid under control. Since he's been back, it's gone to crap again

To put things in some perspective, my state South Australia have not even recorded 1000 cases since the pandemic began. Victoria is getting 1800 per day. Any time we've had 1 community case, we've gone into snap lockdowns instantly, and basically kept Covid out of our state. Masks are still mandatory, not anymore in Victoria.

[dice]

anybody heard anything regarding herd immunity vaccination rate? scientists were speculating around 70% based on prior viruses, but i have heard that higher than that will be required for COVID-19. i would guess that delta complicates any estimates given that a large number of people got vaxxed prior to its appearance

[dougthonus]

anybody heard anything regarding herd immunity vaccination rate? scientists were speculating around 70% based on prior viruses, but i have heard that higher than that will be required for COVID-19. i would guess that delta complicates any estimates given that a large number of people got vaxxed prior to its appearance

It will be interesting if we even ever hit herd immunity or whether the virus just goes on forever but in a weakened state. Between immunity efficacy waning and mutation to Delta having considerably more breakthrough cases than Alpha and our slowness in moving towards a Delta specific vaccine (Pfizer said 3 months to develop, but we're redoing testing from scratch so a year and that may never be fast enough to get ahead of mutations).

Working in our favor is rising worldwide vaccination population, no new major mutations since Delta, and we may not get another major mutation so a Delta vaccine may be extremely effective, natural immunity will build over time amongst those whom aren't vaccinated.

[DuckIII]

anybody heard anything regarding herd immunity vaccination rate? scientists were speculating around 70% based on prior viruses, but i have heard that higher than that will be required for COVID-19. i would guess that delta complicates any estimates given that a large number of people got vaxxed prior to its appearance

Fauci upped that months ago, as a projection, to 80%. That’s the last I heard of it.

Just found out some freedom fighters in my hometown filled a lawsuit to bar the school’s mask mandate, which will be successful as it has been multiple times around the state already, and that as a consequence our conference schools will not play us in indoor sports, effectively ruining all three of my sons’ basketball seasons. My oldest son is a senior and a varsity starter.

But I’m sure he’ll be appreciative all the freedom he’ll enjoy from not wearing a mask far more than he would have enjoyed getting to play his final year of his favorite sport. Yay freedom.

[Chi town]

anybody heard anything regarding herd immunity vaccination rate? scientists were speculating around 70% based on prior viruses, but i have heard that higher than that will be required for COVID-19. i would guess that delta complicates any estimates given that a large number of people got vaxxed prior to its appearance

Fauci upped that months ago, as a projection, to 80%. That’s the last I heard of it.

Just found out some freedom fighters in my hometown filled a lawsuit to bar the school’s mask mandate, which will be successful as it has been multiple times around the state already, and that as a consequence our conference schools will not play us in indoor sports, effectively ruining all three of my sons’ basketball seasons. My oldest son is a senior and a varsity starter.

But I’m sure he’ll be appreciative all the freedom he’ll enjoy from not wearing a mask far more than he would have enjoyed getting to play his final year of his favorite sport. Yay freedom.

That sucks Duck. My boys lost nearly two years of Bball too with everything being shut down in doors and all outdoor rims in SF taken down. They just started practicing again. So rusty. So fun to watch them get out there and compete again though.

Hoping something changes for your sons.

[micromonkey]

anybody heard anything regarding herd immunity vaccination rate? scientists were speculating around 70% based on prior viruses, but i have heard that higher than that will be required for COVID-19. i would guess that delta complicates any estimates given that a large number of people got vaxxed prior to its appearance

Fauci upped that months ago, as a projection, to 80%. That’s the last I heard of it.

Just found out some freedom fighters in my hometown filled a lawsuit to bar the school’s mask mandate, which will be successful as it has been multiple times around the state already, and that as a consequence our conference schools will not play us in indoor sports, effectively ruining all three of my sons’ basketball seasons. My oldest son is a senior and a varsity starter.

But I’m sure he’ll be appreciative all the freedom he’ll enjoy from not wearing a mask far more than he would have enjoyed getting to play his final year of his favorite sport. Yay freedom.

Letting the kids play has got to outweigh anything else. I'm surprised they would not have some sort of work around or exemption to "allow" them to have mask mandates at games, or find a sharing agreement for "home" games at a school that does have mask mandates. But freedom wins. I pushed hard for my daughter to play last year (7th grade) but they canceled the whole season--even after they went back to in person. I said let the kids play (masks) and even have no attendance/parents but I could not convince anyone else.

In the meantime my daughter has been playing AAU ball with no issues since the pandemic. Thankfully we got a really great coach for the AAU club near us--its hit or miss. They have mask mandates for the games (all northern IL area) and most of the time most of the kids actually wear them. Most of the parents do as well. It isn't 100% but whatever--as long as they can play.

I don't know that there is an answer to how COVID plays out. I don't think anyone knows--its not like polio that has remained stable/1 variant or measles that would need to evolve a lot to escape vaccines. Its more like the flu/colds. The vaccines still work to keep more people out of the hospital, especially if boosted but are imperfect.

So yes it's amazing we even came up with anything (kudo's to Moderna/Pfizer for their speed). But I don't think we ever "beat" it like those diseases--more like we tame it (and or hopefully it evolves to be weaker combined with some form of most people having some protection). And I'd bet we have never faced a pandemic "live" with vaccines and done this well. I think we did have a vaccine for the H2N2 "Hong Kong flu" that was developed even faster than warp speed but wasn't as effective. I think we have just become so much more risk averse to losing life as a society at large and are bigger complainers in general because of the high expectations we have -and I do not exclude myself from being a complainer--I am maybe one of the worst

My bet is it ends up closer to the flu/pneumonia. Shots for the variants going around that year that mostly at risk groups would keep up with after a while. Soon after a long approval process I'm sure we get a more universal coronavirus vaccine that works on 99% of coronaviruses--anything from SARS1-MERs and stuff sitting in some bats ass in some cave just waiting for a Qtip

I hope the vaccine companies are right and it fizzles in 2022 because I have slim to no faith in the FDA in moving quickly or adapting to a fast moving virus that mutates, and slim just left town. There have been no lessons learned IMO--its same old FDA. Ultimately the FDA is doing what they always do/supposed to do--and the leadership to alter course in the pandemic needed/needs to come from whomever is the president. The President's job is security and risk management and ultimately he de facto runs the agency, especially in a time of crisis. And once the immediate threat dies down--revamp the agency and come up with plans to handle similar fast moving events better.

It doesn't seem we have a "fire the photon torpedoes" plan for a better targeted and or universal vaccine. Yet clearly we should have this as a top priority for many reasons even if COVID does fizzle in 2022. It should have been going on right after the initial vaccines--or if not soon after. Some companies are working on some targeted vaccines-but as Doug said it will be testing back from zero--ensuring we remain 1 or 2 steps behind. As soon as the "Delta" specific one passes emergency approval (which might take a while because they will debate whether the current vaccine is still good enough and what message a new vaccine will send) it will be some other Greek letter running amok. Which is why the universal one is more important--if its gonna take all that time--make it more generally escape proof and provide some level of protection from the unknown going forward.

[Dresden]

anybody heard anything regarding herd immunity vaccination rate? scientists were speculating around 70% based on prior viruses, but i have heard that higher than that will be required for COVID-19. i would guess that delta complicates any estimates given that a large number of people got vaxxed prior to its appearance

Fauci upped that months ago, as a projection, to 80%. That’s the last I heard of it.

Just found out some freedom fighters in my hometown filled a lawsuit to bar the school’s mask mandate, which will be successful as it has been multiple times around the state already, and that as a consequence our conference schools will not play us in indoor sports, effectively ruining all three of my sons’ basketball seasons. My oldest son is a senior and a varsity starter.

But I’m sure he’ll be appreciative all the freedom he’ll enjoy from not wearing a mask far more than he would have enjoyed getting to play his final year of his favorite sport. Yay freedom.

Seems like there ought to be a countersuit in there somewhere against the anti-vaxxers for damage to your sons and others enjoyment of sports?

[Dresden]

'Throughout August, the risk of dying from Covid-19 was 11 times higher for unvaccinated adults than for fully vaccinated adults in the United States, according to new data published by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Unvaccinated adults faced a six times higher risk of testing positive for Covid-19 throughout the month, and In the last week of August, the risk of being hospitalized was nearly 19 times higher for unvaccinated adults than fully vaccinated adults."

...

'Last week, CDC Director Dr. Rochelle Walensky noted that there are still pockets of unvaccinated people in the US who are not protected against the virus.

"The virus isn't stupid," she said. "It's going to go there."

https://www.cnn.com/2021/10/15/health/cdc-covid-risk-higher-unvaccinated/index.html

[coldfish]

anybody heard anything regarding herd immunity vaccination rate? scientists were speculating around 70% based on prior viruses, but i have heard that higher than that will be required for COVID-19. i would guess that delta complicates any estimates given that a large number of people got vaxxed prior to its appearance

There is a lot of debate if herd immunity is even possible. For the other commonly circulating coronaviruses, they come in a wave, hit everyone and recede, then come back in a while. You never get enough immunity to eliminate them.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/12/herd-immunity-is-mythical-with-the-covid-delta-variant-experts-say.html

Achieving herd immunity with Covid vaccines when the highly infectious delta variant is spreading is “not a possibility,” a leading epidemiologist said.

Experts agree on several reasons why such a goal — where overall immunity in a population is reached and the spread of the virus is stopped — is not likely.

Sir Andrew Pollard, head of the Oxford Vaccine Group, told British lawmakers Tuesday that as Covid vaccines did not stop the spread of the virus entirely — with vaccinated people still able to be infected and transmit the virus — the idea of achieving herd immunity was “mythical.”

“I think we are in a situation here with this current variant where herd immunity is not a possibility because it still infects vaccinated individuals,” said Pollard, one of the lead researchers in the creation of the AstraZeneca-University of Oxford vaccine.

“And that does mean that anyone who’s still unvaccinated, at some point, will meet the virus. That might not be this month or next month, it might be next year, but at some point they will meet the virus and we don’t have anything that will stop that transmission.”