rowseyna wrote:gardenofsound wrote:sco wrote:
Wow that's a lot of work. I think the challenge for drawing conclusions is the Bulls-only sample set. The difference between two consecutive players on any one of those lists may be 1 person or 300 people on an all NBA sample set. So say the #1 guy in a category is great, the second guy may actually be really bad at that statistic compared to others.
Thanks for putting that analysis together. I think this is where the numbers vs. eye are really divergent. Rose shows as #6 on that list, when to anyone actually watching the games during that time, and then over the last couple of seasons, it's clear that Rose was by far the best player with the brightest future of that group. There's no way I would have looked at a 20 year old Rose vs a current Niko, Grant, or Felicio and picked one of the current guys.
At that time, Gibson was a defensive specialist, but was already showing himself as an NBA ready player on that end. Noah was also a defensive, rebounding center whose offensive game really hadn't blossomed yet. He had the athleticism and aptitude to develop, though, and that was already apparent at that time.
In a sense, this comes back to the basic tenets of Bulls drafting, but that's another discussion for another thread.
In any case, thanks for the work on that analysis!
This analysis doesn't really take into account how much better someone may be in one area than the rest of the group. For instance, Rose was the best of the group in assists, not fouling, points, and PER. He could have been so much better in those categories than the rest of the group that the fact that he's one of the two worst rebounders in the entire group doesn't matter so much because he's not that far behind the rest of the group.
We're in total agreement, but something I think this can show/demonstrate is that even though no one's taking any of our current guys over 20-year-old Rose, maybe a few of them aren't so far back as people think. You said something along the lines of not a single one of our current young players shows anywhere near the level of promise as those four from 2009-10. I think this analysis is good enough to show that at least a few of them show some comparable promise though not on the level Rose, Noah, and Deng were on. I'm saying I think a few of these guys could become good core pieces though maybe not All-Stars.
Basically, I feel people get way too down on our young guys and way too quickly. Everyone's so quick to judge and I just don't get it. A lot of these guys are still only in their first or second year. They're kids. Most WILL improve. It's way too early to say they can't become rotation pieces.
Niko's already a very good offensive player. He is a contributing NBA rotation piece on that end. Look at how many of those statistics he's top-three in: eFG%, BP36, PP36, BPM...
Grant's top-three in 3P%, FT%, AP36, SP36, ORtg, TS%, and WS/48. That's saying something. He is an offensive, shooting guard who has the athleticism to develop on defense. I think that's apparent.
Felicio's top-three in FG%, eFG%, RP36, TOVP36, ORtg, TS%, and WS/48. He's a good rebounder who contributes offensively and doesn't turn the ball over. He can contribute as a very good rebounder and finisher at the rim. That's valuable.
Portis is an offensive big who looks to me like he has the tools to develop defensively. He's top three in eFG%, RP36, and TOVP36. When you can be effective/efficient on offense without turning the ball over and be a great rebounder, that's telling. He has some promise.
You're right, that any/all of these guys could develop into (or already be) worthy role players.
I think Portis has a bright future. He's somewhat heavy footed, but I think his future is as a center in today's NBA. His lateral quickness doesn't look like he'd be great guarding on the perimeter.
I happen to be high on Zipser as well, not because of the metrics, but because he doesn't seem to buckle under pressure, and he plays within the system. He's a great value for the money paid, and a pretty strong 2nd round pick.
I need to see more from Payne, but from what I have seen so far, he just doesn't seem like a very smart player, and he seems to take ill-advised shots.
Felicio has spurts of seeming like he could really be something, followed by sprees of being boneheaded on the court. I don't know how much of that is a function of coaching. I think he could be a strong role player, but I'm worried about what he may get paid this offseason. The Bulls should not spend a ton on him if it comes to that.
Mirotic is going to be 27 next year, and is very, very inconsistent. I don't think he's going to get much better than he is now. He takes ill advised shots, and while his defense has improved, he's still a liability on that end. Considering the offers I expect him to get this offseason, I think the Bulls should let him go. His playoff performance has been pretty bad.
