OT Bears 2019/20 season

[CBS7]

.500 ball gets us to 9-7 and probably in the playoffs

[dougthonus]

.500 ball gets us to 9-7 and probably in the playoffs

Doubt 9-7 is enough for the playoffs this year.

Packers will win the division if we're 9-7, so you are competing for 2 wild cards.

Someone will win the East and it doesn't feel likely another wild card will come out of that division, but out of the South and West, you have Tampa vs NO and LA vs Sea vs Arizona. Feels like you have four 10 game winners from that group IMO. Maybe if the west teams beat each other up enough you have a 9-7 and have a shot if you win the tiebreaker.

I think you'll need at least 10 wins this year though and maybe a 10 win team would even get shut out on tiebreakers.

[CBS7]

.500 ball gets us to 9-7 and probably in the playoffs

Doubt 9-7 is enough for the playoffs this year.

Packers will win the division if we're 9-7, so you are competing for 2 wild cards.

Someone will win the East and it doesn't feel likely another wild card will come out of that division, but out of the South and West, you have Tampa vs NO and LA vs Sea vs Arizona. Feels like you have four 10 game winners from that group IMO. Maybe if the west teams beat each other up enough you have a 9-7 and have a shot if you win the tiebreaker.

I think you'll need at least 10 wins this year though and maybe a 10 win team would even get shut out on tiebreakers.

7 teams in the playoff this year. possible 9-7 doesn't make it but its more likely than it used to be

[dougthonus]

7 teams in the playoff this year. possible 9-7 doesn't make it but its more likely than it used to be

Ahh hadn't realized they expanded. Yeah, extremely good chance at least one 9-7 team makes it then. Wouldn't be surprised if there are a couple and one 9-7 is in and one is out on tie breakers.

[dice]

median record of theoretical #7 seeds since league expanded to 32 in 2002 is 9-7. doesn't necessarily mean that 9-7 is LIKELY to make playoffs given that multiple teams could be 9-7 and only one would very likely get in

there have also been several 8-8 teams that theoretically would have gotten in. about as many as 10-6. but 9-7 is as likely as 8-8 and 10-6 combined

[Susan]

Super duper early but SF losing their entire team makes me think they're going to have a hard regression.

GB/Dallas/NO/Seattle/LAR/Arizona/Bears/TB are the clear playoff contenders.

Philly/Minn/Detroit/SF/Carolina/Washington/Giants all suck. Atlanta might suck.

[Jcool0]

Super duper early but SF losing their entire team makes me think they're going to have a hard regression.

GB/Dallas/NO/Seattle/LAR/Arizona/Bears/TB are the clear playoff contenders.

Philly/Minn/Detroit/SF/Carolina/Washington/Giants all suck. Atlanta might suck.

Yeah... Bears are not clear playoff contenders.

[Jeffster81]

Super duper early but SF losing their entire team makes me think they're going to have a hard regression.

GB/Dallas/NO/Seattle/LAR/Arizona/Bears/TB are the clear playoff contenders.

Philly/Minn/Detroit/SF/Carolina/Washington/Giants all suck. Atlanta might suck.

Yeah... Bears are not clear playoff contenders.

I concur. If the Bears are "clear playoff contenders" then the NFC is pretty damn weak this year.

[Susan]

Super duper early but SF losing their entire team makes me think they're going to have a hard regression.

GB/Dallas/NO/Seattle/LAR/Arizona/Bears/TB are the clear playoff contenders.

Philly/Minn/Detroit/SF/Carolina/Washington/Giants all suck. Atlanta might suck.

Yeah... Bears are not clear playoff contenders.

There's 8-9 teams that are clearly better than the rest of the NFC. Starting 2-0 and avoiding major injuries is a pretty good start.

To say that the Bears are not clearly contending for a playoff spot when there's 7 slots this year and the rest of the NFC is looking really bad, dunno what to tell ya man.

[Susan]

Super duper early but SF losing their entire team makes me think they're going to have a hard regression.

GB/Dallas/NO/Seattle/LAR/Arizona/Bears/TB are the clear playoff contenders.

Philly/Minn/Detroit/SF/Carolina/Washington/Giants all suck. Atlanta might suck.

Yeah... Bears are not clear playoff contenders.

I concur. If the Bears are "clear playoff contenders" then the NFC is pretty damn weak this year.

When there's 7 spots and 16 teams, the top 9 or so teams could easily be called the teams that are contending for the playoffs.

Name the teams in the NFC who have been more impressive than the Bears thus far. The 0-2 Falcons? 0-2 Eagles (Mitch is playing better than Wentz btw)? The 49ers who literally just had their entire team get injured? The Vikings who shed so much talent for Kirk Cousins who's been dreadful and are also 0-2? Washington? Carolina without a defense, CMac for the next 4 weeks? The Giants (who they just beat)?

It's early but there's a LOT of bad teams and a crazy amount of injuries to franchise players.

[Dresden]

Yeah... Bears are not clear playoff contenders.

I concur. If the Bears are "clear playoff contenders" then the NFC is pretty damn weak this year.

When there's 7 spots and 16 teams, the top 9 or so teams could easily be called the teams that are contending for the playoffs.

Name the teams in the NFC who have been more impressive than the Bears thus far. The 0-2 Falcons? 0-2 Eagles (Mitch is playing better than Wentz btw)? The 49ers who literally just had their entire team get injured? The Vikings who shed so much talent for Kirk Cousins who's been dreadful and are also 0-2? Washington? Carolina without a defense, CMac for the next 4 weeks? The Giants (who they just beat)?

It's early but there's a LOT of bad teams and a crazy amount of injuries to franchise players.

To me, it's not about being good enough to make the playoffs. It's about being good enough to compete with the best teams in the league, and I just don't see that happening the way the offense is currently operating. I don't think Trubisky is the long term answer at QB, and until they get that figured out, they are just treading water, at best, and at worst, they are wasting what could be a super bowl caliber defense, although that is also a questionable statement right now.

[dougthonus]

To me, it's not about being good enough to make the playoffs. It's about being good enough to compete with the best teams in the league, and I just don't see that happening the way the offense is currently operating. I don't think Trubisky is the long term answer at QB, and until they get that figured out, they are just treading water, at best, and at worst, they are wasting what could be a super bowl caliber defense, although that is also a questionable statement right now.

While true (though our defense certainly hasn't played like a super bowl caliber one yet), there was no scenario other than Trubisky taking a huge step forward that was going to make this not true.

You might as well complain about the Bulls not competing with the best teams in the league next year. I mean the Bears never had the horses to make this a legitimate possibility in the off-season. They front loaded too many contracts and gave up too many assets to set up the team they had. They needed Trubisky to be a big time player on his rookie deal for it to work and that didn't happen.

You can argue whether or not that was a good risk to take since if Trubisky had been a star QB, the Bears would have been super bowl contenders the last 3 years, but it didn't work out that way, and here we are. Either way, it's completely accurate what you're saying, it's just not unexpected after last years conclusion. I would have probably chased Cam instead of trading for Foles and had a tiny bit more in the way of resources, but I can't sit here and tell you that would have made a huge difference.

[otwok]

While we may be in contention with the playoffs expanded, knowing the Bears we'll be in a 3 way tie for 9-7 but lose the tie breaker, miss the playoffs, then lose the tie breaker for draft order and get a worse draft pick. Which we will end up trading for another TE.

[Dresden]

To me, it's not about being good enough to make the playoffs. It's about being good enough to compete with the best teams in the league, and I just don't see that happening the way the offense is currently operating. I don't think Trubisky is the long term answer at QB, and until they get that figured out, they are just treading water, at best, and at worst, they are wasting what could be a super bowl caliber defense, although that is also a questionable statement right now.

While true (though our defense certainly hasn't played like a super bowl caliber one yet), there was no scenario other than Trubisky taking a huge step forward that was going to make this not true.

You might as well complain about the Bulls not competing with the best teams in the league next year. I mean the Bears never had the horses to make this a legitimate possibility in the off-season. They front loaded too many contracts and gave up too many assets to set up the team they had. They needed Trubisky to be a big time player on his rookie deal for it to work and that didn't happen.

You can argue whether or not that was a good risk to take since if Trubisky had been a star QB, the Bears would have been super bowl contenders the last 3 years, but it didn't work out that way, and here we are. Either way, it's completely accurate what you're saying, it's just not unexpected after last years conclusion. I would have probably chased Cam instead of trading for Foles and had a tiny bit more in the way of resources, but I can't sit here and tell you that would have made a huge difference.

If that's the case, what are they doing? If they aren't building something that can be a title contender, why keep going down this path, expecting a miracle? Why not at least try Foles now, since it's pretty obvious Trubisky is not turning into an above average QB. Are they happy just to be 9-7, 10-6, and get bounced in the first round of the playoffs.

I look at the difference between the Cubs and the Sox. The Sox tore everything down, and now have a nucleus that can win a World Series. While the Cubs seem content to just keep trotting out the same lineup that has underperformed for 4 years now, hoping they can win their division and then somehow a miracle happens in the playoffs and they can beat the Dodgers. At least the Cubs will win their division this year, and who knows what might happen in the playoffs. But the Bears are even further away than the Cubs, so why not start building a team that might actually be really good?

[JohnnyKILLroy]

Rated number 2 after 2 weeks

https://bearswire.usatoday.com/2020/09/22/bears-cb-jaylon-johnson-among-pffs-highest-graded-rookies-through-2-weeks/

[dougthonus]

If that's the case, what are they doing? If they aren't building something that can be a title contender, why keep going down this path, expecting a miracle? Why not at least try Foles now, since it's pretty obvious Trubisky is not turning into an above average QB. Are they happy just to be 9-7, 10-6, and get bounced in the first round of the playoffs.

9-7 or 10-6 and getting to the playoffs then hoping for miracles is about the best thing I think the team could do this year. They could alternatively have just tried to sell off all their talent and go into hard core rebuild mode, but I don't think they would have gotten much of anything for their guys, so that outcome isn't exciting to me either.

As unlikely as it is, I'd rather gamble on the team having an unlikely run or have unlikely improvement. Maybe I'd change my mind if someone was going to give up lots of assets for the Bears talent, but just being worse and drafting 10 spots higher in each round wouldn't excite me any or be relevant enough to purposefully lose for unless you were getting a lot of extra picks too. If you could sell off Fuller, Mack, whomever and load up on say 6 future picks in the first 3 rounds and completely give up on the season in the process then I would have done that. I doubt that type of option was on the table (but I could be wrong).

I look at the difference between the Cubs and the Sox. The Sox tore everything down, and now have a nucleus that can win a World Series. While the Cubs seem content to just keep trotting out the same lineup that has underperformed for 4 years now, hoping they can win their division and then somehow a miracle happens in the playoffs and they can beat the Dodgers. At least the Cubs will win their division this year, and who knows what might happen in the playoffs. But the Bears are even further away than the Cubs, so why not start building a team that might actually be really good?

So you think the Cubs should have just tore it down after winning the world series rather than trying to tweak with the talent they have? In an ideal state, you're building and your rebuild is good enough to open that championship window. Once its open the odds may shift from low, to medium, to high, back down to low, maybe they never even get to medium, and maybe your rebuild doesn't even result in the window opening at all. The Bears rebuild probably never got past low odds, I wouldn't mind giving up our really low odds, but I'd have to get something back for doing so. Even if you don't win the superbowl, a playoff appearance is better than finishing 5-11 if you aren't getting a bunch of extra picks in the process.

[transplant]

I understand that everyone is all excited about Trubisky and the offense, but I've been less than excited about the defense. I think Jaylon Johnson has been a pleasant surprise, but in the first 2 gams there have been lots of times when the Bears supposedly elite defense could have taken over the game against inferior offenses and they didn't. The Bears need to be better on both sides.

[Susan]

I understand that everyone is all excited about Trubisky and the offense, but I've been less than excited about the defense. I think Jaylon Johnson has been a pleasant surprise, but in the first 2 gams there have been lots of times when the Bears supposedly elite defense could have taken over the game against inferior offenses and they didn't. The Bears need to be better on both sides.

Quinn, Mack and Hicks are going to take a minute to ramp up. Trevathan should get a bit better as the season goes along.

Fuller has been elite, Roquan I haven't seen any numbers on, Eddie Jackson is a pro-bowler year in year out.

[JohnnyKILLroy]

I understand that everyone is all excited about Trubisky and the offense, but I've been less than excited about the defense. I think Jaylon Johnson has been a pleasant surprise, but in the first 2 gams there have been lots of times when the Bears supposedly elite defense could have taken over the game against inferior offenses and they didn't. The Bears need to be better on both sides.

Quinn, Mack and Hicks are going to take a minute to ramp up. Trevathan should get a bit better as the season goes along.

Fuller has been elite, Roquan I haven't seen any numbers on, Eddie Jackson is a pro-bowler year in year out.

No preseason games.

[patryk7754]

Our defense has been underwhelming thus far. Calvin Ridley will be talked about as a top WR by seasons end if not sooner. Julios impact is self explanatory. Gurly is off to a nice start. This defense needs to get back to top 5 form now if they don’t want to get blown out this week.

Falcons defense has been bad and this week will be another one for Mitch to continue to build confidence and get more consistent.

I think the defense will need to keep the falcons under 30 for us to have a shot. If the bears win I think they beat the colts via a dominant performance from the defense and start 4-0 which I’m pretty sure no one thought that would happen. However I don’t think Mitch will be able to keep up with the falcons offense