Building around Coby-Giddey-Matas

[WindyCityBorn]

This is probably copium...

It's pretty clear that you need an ELITE talent to win a championship but my question is this. Is there any world where your accumulated talent gels and makes one of the guys better to the point they're perceived as elite?

Would we even recognize that it's happening? An example is maybe Tatum in Boston. Sometimes I'm not completely sure he's on that level but they've won

I think Buzelis could be that guy. He has all the tools to be elite. Plus the work ethic and drive to be great.

[MGB8]

Coby worries me more, in the sense that we have seen him go on hot streaks before - including him tearing apart Atlanta in the play-in, only to see better interior defenses really stifle him and, generally, a “return to mean.” I would be more worried about overpaying Coby than Giddey, and likely want to pay him less - absent something showing that the past pattern of hot streaks and return to means no longer holds - that the mean itself is significantly elevated.

[MGB8]

This is probably copium...

It's pretty clear that you need an ELITE talent to win a championship but my question is this. Is there any world where your accumulated talent gels and makes one of the guys better to the point they're perceived as elite?

Would we even recognize that it's happening? An example is maybe Tatum in Boston. Sometimes I'm not completely sure he's on that level but they've won

I think Buzelis could be that guy. He has all the tools to be elite. Plus the work ethic and drive to be great.

Agreed. He reminds me a lot of Tyrus Thomas in terms of tools - not quite the same type of jumper (but both still bouncy) and not quite the same defensive instincts, also not the same length (though Matas taller)… but also more fluid, better handle, and it certainly looks like a better work ethic / approach.

You never know where it will end up, and Matas 100% can’t bulk up and lose quickness (he’ll lose enough just with age), but he has a special toolset. He could be a top 10 player in the league.. but there is a big gap between “theoretically could get there” and “is likely to get there.”

[Jcool0]

This is probably copium...

It's pretty clear that you need an ELITE talent to win a championship but my question is this. Is there any world where your accumulated talent gels and makes one of the guys better to the point they're perceived as elite?

Would we even recognize that it's happening? An example is maybe Tatum in Boston. Sometimes I'm not completely sure he's on that level but they've won

I think Buzelis could be that guy. He has all the tools to be elite. Plus the work ethic and drive to be great.

Agreed. He reminds me a lot of Tyrus Thomas in terms of tools - not quite the same type of jumper (but both still bouncy) and not quite the same defensive instincts, also not the same length (though Matas taller)… but also more fluid, better handle, and it certainly looks like a better work ethic / approach.

You never know where it will end up, and Matas 100% can’t bulk up and lose quickness (he’ll lose enough just with age), but he has a special toolset. He could be a top 10 player in the league.. but there is a big gap between “theoretically could get there” and “is likely to get there.”

Most likely he is a 2/3 best player on a good team. Would take a lot of outlier development to become Franz Wagner with a 40% 3.

[WindyCityBorn]

I think Buzelis could be that guy. He has all the tools to be elite. Plus the work ethic and drive to be great.

Agreed. He reminds me a lot of Tyrus Thomas in terms of tools - not quite the same type of jumper (but both still bouncy) and not quite the same defensive instincts, also not the same length (though Matas taller)… but also more fluid, better handle, and it certainly looks like a better work ethic / approach.

You never know where it will end up, and Matas 100% can’t bulk up and lose quickness (he’ll lose enough just with age), but he has a special toolset. He could be a top 10 player in the league.. but there is a big gap between “theoretically could get there” and “is likely to get there.”

Most likely he is a 2/3 best player on a good team. Would take a lot of outlier development to become Franz Wagner with a 40% 3.

Why does he need a 40 percent 3 to be elite? Basically no superstar shoots 40 percent from 3.

[Jcool0]

Agreed. He reminds me a lot of Tyrus Thomas in terms of tools - not quite the same type of jumper (but both still bouncy) and not quite the same defensive instincts, also not the same length (though Matas taller)… but also more fluid, better handle, and it certainly looks like a better work ethic / approach.

You never know where it will end up, and Matas 100% can’t bulk up and lose quickness (he’ll lose enough just with age), but he has a special toolset. He could be a top 10 player in the league.. but there is a big gap between “theoretically could get there” and “is likely to get there.”

Most likely he is a 2/3 best player on a good team. Would take a lot of outlier development to become Franz Wagner with a 40% 3.

Why does he need a 40 percent 3 to be elite? Basically no superstar shoots 40 percent from 3.

Kyrie Irving: 40% from 3 on 7.2 attempts

Nikola Jokic: 41% from 3 on 4.6 attempts

Zach LaVine: 43% from 3 on 7.1. attempts

Karl-Anthony Towns: 42% from 3 on 4.9 attempts

Kevin Durant: 43% from 3 on 6 attempts

Darius Garland: 40% from 3 on 7.1 attempts

Anthony Edwards: 39.5% from 3 on 10.1 attempts

Stephen Curry: 39.3% from 3 on 11.1 attempts

[WindyCityBorn]

Most likely he is a 2/3 best player on a good team. Would take a lot of outlier development to become Franz Wagner with a 40% 3.

Why does he need a 40 percent 3 to be elite? Basically no superstar shoots 40 percent from 3.

Kyrie Irving: 40% from 3 on 7.2 attempts

Nikola Jokic: 41% from 3 on 4.6 attempts

Zach LaVine: 43% from 3 on 7.1. attempts

Karl-Anthony Towns: 42% from 3 on 4.9 attempts

Kevin Durant: 43% from 3 on 6 attempts

Darius Garland: 40% from 3 on 7.1 attempts

Anthony Edwards: 39.5% from 3 on 10.1 attempts

Stephen Curry: 39.3% from 3 on 11.1 attempts

Towns, Garland, Irving and Zach aren’t superstars. Those are all 2 or 3s on championship teams.

So he needs to an all-time great like Joker, Curry or Durant to be elite today? I see you left off some better players like SGA, Giannis, Tatum, Booker and Luka because it didn’t fit your narrative.

You even ignored your boy Banchero that you were touting as future #1 type player just a few days ago. Weak!

[Jcool0]

Why does he need a 40 percent 3 to be elite? Basically no superstar shoots 40 percent from 3.

Kyrie Irving: 40% from 3 on 7.2 attempts

Nikola Jokic: 41% from 3 on 4.6 attempts

Zach LaVine: 43% from 3 on 7.1. attempts

Karl-Anthony Towns: 42% from 3 on 4.9 attempts

Kevin Durant: 43% from 3 on 6 attempts

Darius Garland: 40% from 3 on 7.1 attempts

Anthony Edwards: 39.5% from 3 on 10.1 attempts

Stephen Curry: 39.3% from 3 on 11.1 attempts

Towns, Garland, Irving and Zach aren’t superstars. Those are all 2 or 3s on championship teams.

So he needs to an all-time great like Joker, Curry or Durant to be elite today? I see you left off some better players like SGA, Giannis, Tatum, Booker and Luka because it didn’t fit your narrative.

You even ignored your boy Banchero that you were touting as future #1 type player just a few days ago. Weak!

Towns is s 5x all star currently averaging 24/12/3

Garland is a 2x all star currently averaging 20/3/7 on a 60 win Cavs team.

Irving is a 9x all star that was averaging 25/5/5

FWIW i never said he needed to be anything. I said most likely he will be a 2/3 on a good team. You are the one who made an incorrect statement about no stars shooting over 40% from 3. Take the L and move on.

[Chi town]

This is probably copium...

It's pretty clear that you need an ELITE talent to win a championship but my question is this. Is there any world where your accumulated talent gels and makes one of the guys better to the point they're perceived as elite?

Would we even recognize that it's happening? An example is maybe Tatum in Boston. Sometimes I'm not completely sure he's on that level but they've won

I think Buzelis could be that guy. He has all the tools to be elite. Plus the work ethic and drive to be great.

I’m starting to think that about Buz too.

I agree about Tatum and his situation too. His team elevated him more than he does them IMO.

[kodo]

Coby worries me more, in the sense that we have seen him go on hot streaks before - including him tearing apart Atlanta in the play-in, only to see better interior defenses really stifle him and, generally, a “return to mean.” I would be more worried about overpaying Coby than Giddey, and likely want to pay him less - absent something showing that the past pattern of hot streaks and return to means no longer holds - that the mean itself is significantly elevated.

I do think Coby is farther away from a championship #1 than Giddey is from a championship sidekick. But the org has picked a lane, and letting Coby walk in FA doesn't return a better player. We're just worse and the org won't use the draft to rebuild.

Teams in our situation don't have a lot of choice in who they pay serious money. Toronto has to pay a ton for their top guys as well.
Scottie Barnes $45M
Brandon Ingram, $40M
Quickley, $33M

That's close to the cap already ($120M) for those 3 guys. Those contracts for Good players who are not Stars are the worst financially, but this is why teams tank for stars but that's a dead horse at this point.

[WindyCityBorn]

Why does he need a 40 percent 3 to be elite? Basically no superstar shoots 40 percent from 3.

Kyrie Irving: 40% from 3 on 7.2 attempts

Nikola Jokic: 41% from 3 on 4.6 attempts

Zach LaVine: 43% from 3 on 7.1. attempts

Karl-Anthony Towns: 42% from 3 on 4.9 attempts

Kevin Durant: 43% from 3 on 6 attempts

Darius Garland: 40% from 3 on 7.1 attempts

Anthony Edwards: 39.5% from 3 on 10.1 attempts

Stephen Curry: 39.3% from 3 on 11.1 attempts

Towns, Garland, Irving and Zach aren’t superstars. Those are all 2 or 3s on championship teams.

So he needs to an all-time great like Joker, Curry or Durant to be elite today? I see you left off some better players like SGA, Giannis, Tatum, Booker and Luka because it didn’t fit your narrative.

You even ignored your boy Banchero that you were touting as future #1 type player just a few days ago. Weak!

I said superstars. You listed mostly just regular stars. Your L. Own it.

[Jcool0]

Kyrie Irving: 40% from 3 on 7.2 attempts

Nikola Jokic: 41% from 3 on 4.6 attempts

Zach LaVine: 43% from 3 on 7.1. attempts

Karl-Anthony Towns: 42% from 3 on 4.9 attempts

Kevin Durant: 43% from 3 on 6 attempts

Darius Garland: 40% from 3 on 7.1 attempts

Anthony Edwards: 39.5% from 3 on 10.1 attempts

Stephen Curry: 39.3% from 3 on 11.1 attempts

Towns, Garland, Irving and Zach aren’t superstars. Those are all 2 or 3s on championship teams.

So he needs to an all-time great like Joker, Curry or Durant to be elite today? I see you left off some better players like SGA, Giannis, Tatum, Booker and Luka because it didn’t fit your narrative.

You even ignored your boy Banchero that you were touting as future #1 type player just a few days ago. Weak!

I said superstars. You listed mostly just regular stars. Your L. Own it.

Based on your criteria for "superstar" i gave you three. Based on my criteria i gave you 7. Either way it disproves no one does it. Its a unlikely thing to happen IMO for Matas to hit that level. I'm okay if it doesn't. You seem like you would be disappointed that a rare thing doesn't accrue. It wont mean he is a bad player. People were knocking Cooper Flagg before this year because he looked to be not a #1 guy. Its a extremely hard thing to do. You need a lot to go right and maybe even some luck. An 11 pick becoming a #2 or 3 is a big win for the Bulls.

[Am2626]

I'm just going to say: please have these guys show up in October, before you call them the core.

They're playing very well right now, and it's a significantly better style of play than yesteryears... But this would not be the first time in NBA history (particularly post-MJ Bulls era) where young guys catch some crazy heat in March and fall right back to earth after the off-season, when the whole league is prepared to win games and not tank away.

Giddey is shooting over 50% from the arc since Feb-2. Bless the fella if it continues, but... TRADITIONALLY, all such freak highs fall back to earth (especially after big contract extensions). Utah Lauri and Super Niko, amongst others.

Yea a cautionary tale would be 2003. The 3 C's all finished the year strong and looked like they were starting something good. Then fell right back to being awful in 03-04.

That was the year that the end of year meaningless wins took them out of a chance to draft in the top 5 where 4 out of the top 5 picks ended up having Hall of Fame Careers. I guess those end of season wins really must have been worth it.

[ScrantonBulls]

I'm just going to say: please have these guys show up in October, before you call them the core.

They're playing very well right now, and it's a significantly better style of play than yesteryears... But this would not be the first time in NBA history (particularly post-MJ Bulls era) where young guys catch some crazy heat in March and fall right back to earth after the off-season, when the whole league is prepared to win games and not tank away.

Giddey is shooting over 50% from the arc since Feb-2. Bless the fella if it continues, but... TRADITIONALLY, all such freak highs fall back to earth (especially after big contract extensions). Utah Lauri and Super Niko, amongst others.

Yea a cautionary tale would be 2003. The 3 C's all finished the year strong and looked like they were starting something good. Then fell right back to being awful in 03-04.

That was the year that the end of year meaningless wins took them out of a chance to draft in the top 5 where 4 out of the top 5 picks ended up having Hall of Fame Careers. I guess those end of season wins really must have been worth it.

That's why I'll never understand the people who cry about fans that want loses/tanking so we can get better draft position. Are they so short sighted that they can't see the benefit to getting a better draft spot? It's crazy to me.

[The Force.]

I would rather overpay Coby that Giddey. Coby is streaky but he’s not a guy offenses will target every possession in the postseason. Giddey is without a doubt that guy. This is why OKC was so quick to trade him.

Big numbers on offense, big liability on defense.

[eierluke]

Most likely he is a 2/3 best player on a good team. Would take a lot of outlier development to become Franz Wagner with a 40% 3.

Why does he need a 40 percent 3 to be elite? Basically no superstar shoots 40 percent from 3.

Kyrie Irving: 40% from 3 on 7.2 attempts

Nikola Jokic: 41% from 3 on 4.6 attempts

Zach LaVine: 43% from 3 on 7.1. attempts

Karl-Anthony Towns: 42% from 3 on 4.9 attempts

Kevin Durant: 43% from 3 on 6 attempts

Darius Garland: 40% from 3 on 7.1 attempts

Anthony Edwards: 39.5% from 3 on 10.1 attempts

Stephen Curry: 39.3% from 3 on 11.1 attempts

These mentioned stats are just 24/25 stats.
Very small sample, even MJ had one season that made him look like a 3 pt shooter.
I believe in career numbers

[Jcool0]

Why does he need a 40 percent 3 to be elite? Basically no superstar shoots 40 percent from 3.

Kyrie Irving: 40% from 3 on 7.2 attempts

Nikola Jokic: 41% from 3 on 4.6 attempts

Zach LaVine: 43% from 3 on 7.1. attempts

Karl-Anthony Towns: 42% from 3 on 4.9 attempts

Kevin Durant: 43% from 3 on 6 attempts

Darius Garland: 40% from 3 on 7.1 attempts

Anthony Edwards: 39.5% from 3 on 10.1 attempts

Stephen Curry: 39.3% from 3 on 11.1 attempts

These mentioned stats are just 24/25 stats.
Very small sample, even MJ had one season that made him look like a 3 pt shooter.
I believe in career numbers

Michael Jordan? Who retired in 2003? FWIW every year he took 3+ he was a good 3PT shooter. 1989 3 3PA 37%. 1992 2.9 3PA 35%. 1995 3.2 3PA 43%. 1996 3.6 3PA 37%.

[MGB8]

Kyrie Irving: 40% from 3 on 7.2 attempts

Nikola Jokic: 41% from 3 on 4.6 attempts

Zach LaVine: 43% from 3 on 7.1. attempts

Karl-Anthony Towns: 42% from 3 on 4.9 attempts

Kevin Durant: 43% from 3 on 6 attempts

Darius Garland: 40% from 3 on 7.1 attempts

Anthony Edwards: 39.5% from 3 on 10.1 attempts

Stephen Curry: 39.3% from 3 on 11.1 attempts

These mentioned stats are just 24/25 stats.
Very small sample, even MJ had one season that made him look like a 3 pt shooter.
I believe in career numbers

Michael Jordan? Who retired in 2003? FWIW every year he took 3+ he was a good 3PT shooter. 1989 3 3PA 37%. 1992 2.9 3PA 35%. 1995 3.2 3PA 43%. 1996 3.6 3PA 37%.

The line was shorter for a bit, though, right? Anyway, different era - I’m sure he’d be a plus (but not elite) 3 pt shooter in today’s game, a la LeBron (at 38% this year) or Luka (36%).

Anyway, different era also impacts the importance of 3 pt percentage. In Giddey’s case, he needs to be a plus 3 pt guy on mid to high volume to offset his lack of elite physical traits - though note that I think his D has moved from bad to “passable” (a la Coby) when played at the 3/4 (defensively) instead of at a guard spot.

For Matas, I also think he needs to be a plus, maybe even near elite, 3 pt shooter to become a true superstar. And starting as a rook at a passable 34/35% is a great sign. I think he needs it because:

(1) I expect him to lose a half a step as he gets stronger and goes into his prime, so the shot from range will be more key to keeping lanes open for him (and “gravity), and
(2) while a tall, bouncy freak, he isn’t a freight train freak like LeBron, Zion, to a lesser extent Banchero and Barnes, nor does he have the size of a Giannis or Mobley or even JJJ, nor quite the Gazelle movement, much less natural offensive talent, of a Kevin Durant.

I still really like the AK47 and Tyrus (better offense, not quite same length or explosion on D) comps for him in terms of “type of player” - a defensive combo forward who is versatile offensively (though Tyrus never developed). And I think the modern era play that doesn’t ask nominal 4’s to do too much in the low post helps him - but the key to maximizing him on offense will be whether the shooting gets there. He doesn’t quite move like a Banchero (who is the only 6’9 guy who, offensively, consistently plays with guard-esque bend) though he is a lot closer than I thought he was pre-draft.

[Jcool0]

These mentioned stats are just 24/25 stats.
Very small sample, even MJ had one season that made him look like a 3 pt shooter.
I believe in career numbers

Michael Jordan? Who retired in 2003? FWIW every year he took 3+ he was a good 3PT shooter. 1989 3 3PA 37%. 1992 2.9 3PA 35%. 1995 3.2 3PA 43%. 1996 3.6 3PA 37%.

The line was shorter for a bit, though, right? Anyway, different era - I’m sure he’d be a plus (but not elite) 3 pt shooter in today’s game, a la LeBron (at 38% this year) or Luka (36%).

Anyway, different era also impacts the importance of 3 pt percentage. In Giddey’s case, he needs to be a plus 3 pt guy on mid to high volume to offset his lack of elite physical traits - though note that I think his D has moved from bad to “passable” (a la Coby) when played at the 3/4 (defensively) instead of at a guard spot.

For Matas, I also think he needs to be a plus, maybe even near elite, 3 pt shooter to become a true superstar. And starting as a room at a passable 34/35% is a great sign. I think he needs it because:

(1) I expect him to lose a half a step as he gets stronger and goes into his prime, so the shot from range will be more key to keeping lanes open for him (and “gravity), and
(2) while a tall, bouncy freak, he isn’t a freight train freak like LeBron, Zion, to a lesser extent Banchero and Barnes, nor does he have the size of a Giannis or Mobley or even JJJ, nor quite the Gazelle movement, much less natural offensive talent, of a Kevin Durant.

I still really like the AK47 and Tyrus (better offense, not quite same length or explosion on D) comps for him in terms of “type of player” - a defensive combo forward who is versatile offensively (though Tyrus never developed). And I think the modern era play that doesn’t ask nominal 4’s to do too much in the low post helps him - but the key to maximizing him on offense will be whether the shooting gets there. He doesn’t quite move like a Banchero (who is the only 6’9 guy who, offensively, consistently plays with guard-esque bend) though he is a lot closer than I thought he was pre-draft.

I would say a peak Matas on his current development track is in the range of 20/6/4. If things go south more 15/4/2 stat line.

[WindyCityBorn]

Michael Jordan? Who retired in 2003? FWIW every year he took 3+ he was a good 3PT shooter. 1989 3 3PA 37%. 1992 2.9 3PA 35%. 1995 3.2 3PA 43%. 1996 3.6 3PA 37%.

The line was shorter for a bit, though, right? Anyway, different era - I’m sure he’d be a plus (but not elite) 3 pt shooter in today’s game, a la LeBron (at 38% this year) or Luka (36%).

Anyway, different era also impacts the importance of 3 pt percentage. In Giddey’s case, he needs to be a plus 3 pt guy on mid to high volume to offset his lack of elite physical traits - though note that I think his D has moved from bad to “passable” (a la Coby) when played at the 3/4 (defensively) instead of at a guard spot.

For Matas, I also think he needs to be a plus, maybe even near elite, 3 pt shooter to become a true superstar. And starting as a room at a passable 34/35% is a great sign. I think he needs it because:

(1) I expect him to lose a half a step as he gets stronger and goes into his prime, so the shot from range will be more key to keeping lanes open for him (and “gravity), and
(2) while a tall, bouncy freak, he isn’t a freight train freak like LeBron, Zion, to a lesser extent Banchero and Barnes, nor does he have the size of a Giannis or Mobley or even JJJ, nor quite the Gazelle movement, much less natural offensive talent, of a Kevin Durant.

I still really like the AK47 and Tyrus (better offense, not quite same length or explosion on D) comps for him in terms of “type of player” - a defensive combo forward who is versatile offensively (though Tyrus never developed). And I think the modern era play that doesn’t ask nominal 4’s to do too much in the low post helps him - but the key to maximizing him on offense will be whether the shooting gets there. He doesn’t quite move like a Banchero (who is the only 6’9 guy who, offensively, consistently plays with guard-esque bend) though he is a lot closer than I thought he was pre-draft.

I would say a peak Matas on his current development track is in the range of 20/6/4. If things go south more 15/4/2 stat line.

Does that peak include all-defense team?