Josh Giddey - Conundrum Killer

[2weekswithpay]

There is no such thing as one player making $25 million a year who caps a team at 35 wins regardless of who his teammates are. Including that player being the primary ball handler and distributor (which Giddey is quite good at).

I don’t like saying hater. But I gotta admit some of these takes are so blatantly illogical that they must be based on some other weird factors like Caruso emotions or that silly Giddey “pedo” nonsense.

I'm not saying he caps a team at 35 wins regardless of teammates.

And yet it’s exactly what you said. Why?

I'm saying that the better the team gets, the more likely it is that Giddey's negatives outweigh the positives. Of the 12 teams that currently are a top 6 seed, how many would Giddey start on? Houston maybe?

Why do people keep asking where Giddey, a unique player, would fit on teams that were not built including his game as part of the analysis? It’s a meaningless exercise rendered even more meaningless by limiting it to a one year snap shot of teams.

Depends on what is considered successful. 30 win team? Probably. 40 win team? Maybe in the right circumstances. 45 wins? Highly unlikely. 50 wins? No.

I never ruled out a Giddey led team winning more than 35 games. The 35 wins is what I believe is the most likely outcome given his current offensive capabilities. I apologize for any misunderstandings.

Why do people keep asking where Giddey, a unique player, would fit on teams that were not built including his game as part of the analysis? It’s a meaningless exercise rendered even more meaningless by limiting it to a one year snap shot of teams.

I don't believe Giddey is so unique that it makes this meaningless. Cade, current James Harden, Lamelo, and Luka are players who would fall under the same archetype as Giddey IMO.

There are things to look for and compare in all high usage ballhandlers/scorers. Scoring efficiency. Can you drive effectively with both hands? Can you make the cross court pass to the corner? How do you attack switches? Can you attack drop coverage with pull-up shooting? I don't see what makes Giddey so unique that I can't compare him to other first/second options or ballhandlers.

[Infinity2152]

Let's build a championship team with Giddey making $25 mill based on this year's salaries:

Josh Giddey: $25 mill
Donovan Mitchell: $35 mill
Mikal Bridges: $23 mill
Jaren Jackson Jr: $25 mill
Bam Adebayo $36 mill

$144 mill for the starters, luxury tax starts at $171. First apron is $178 mill. Would think with that team, you'd' be willing to at least go there. So $34 mill under the first apron to fill out a good bench, too many combinations to do. Bulls are profitable enough, they should be willing to go at least up to the second apron for a contender, if not over it. That's $189 mill this year. Add another $20 mill.

Replace Bam with Gafford, add another $23 mill to work with for a much deeper bench, still a legit contender. Or use $13 mill to go from Bridges to Ingram, and add $10 to the bench.

Josh Giddey, Donovan Mitchell, Brandon Ingram, JJJ, Gafford looks damn good. There's also Naz Reid, Robert Williams, a few other good $10-15 mill centers that could slot in at starter.

[dougthonus]

You know me, I'm way to lazy to do that calculus.

I will say that if you replaced Ja with Giddey and replaced Clarke with a decent 3-D guy like Divencenzo, I'd roll with that Memphis team.

Wow, I would feel incredibly differently about that. Ja draws double teams, makes things happen, significantly moves the needle as a dominant player. Giddey has shown no such thing that I have seen, but fundamentally, I guess we either see Ja or Giddey very differently then

[dougthonus]

That’s an irrelevant question because those teams are already built based on the wide variety of differing factors that went into building them. But I could easily build an imaginary one based on the assumption Giddey signs for 20-30 million.

The only guys you can say “obviously not” are team killers on max contracts who play lower basketball like Melo and Hardin in the day. Giddey at these rates is at less than half a max deal. Hell, in theory you could contend with $30 million in dead contracts.

Sorry Doug, I know you question his game but your arguments aren’t rooted in logic. Challenging and particular to build a contender with him at those rates? Yes. Stating it’s impossible just means you are being impacted by more than logic in reaching your conclusion.

You're asking me to disprove the negative, and that's obviously really hard.

I don't see how a player with these traits:
1: Has to be the primary ball handler
2: Is largely ignored when he does not have the ball creating negative gravity for teammates
3: Does not draw a double team when he has the ball
4: Is an efficient scorer
5: Is bottom tier of the NBA defensively

Fits on a championship team

Even when:
1: They post gaudy counting stats
2: They are an absolute wizard at passing
3: They are a good rebounder for their position

I just don't see how it works. When I looked at all the teams that I thought were good and ask myself "Would they want Josh Giddey?", I just keep coming up with no.

To say I'm not providing enough evidence that it can't work (while I'm providing a fair amount both in practical examples and theory), and you are not providing any evidence that it can work feels pretty unfair to me.

The reality is that Josh was on a championship caliber team that got better by trading him for a role player and didn't want him. That team had the exact traits (3 point shooting and defense) that you would theoretically want around Josh and didn't find a use for him as a starter. I don't know what different traits you would put around Josh if it isn't defense, three point shooting, and a superstar, but with those things, that team still would rather have a role player than Josh.

[WindyCityBorn]

How about, f*** history let's try something new

People ignore that Draymond Green basically acted the lead facilitator for Golden State and he was nowhere near a good offensive player.

He was also one of the best defensive players of this generation.

Irrelevant to his offensive role. Dennis Rodman didn’t run our offense.

[WindyCityBorn]

Scottie Barnes 38M (next year)
Evan Mobely 38M(next year)
Naz Reid 14M
Anthony Edwards 42M
Jaden McDaniels 23M
Chris Paul 10M
Malik Beasley 6M
Jalen Smith 9M

It's total 180 M

Sent from my SM-S9160 using RealGM mobile app

So we’re playing NBA 2K now?

[dougthonus]

You would always be able to because of your subjective opinion of him as a player, which is very low. So you will easily identify “better” options. Another pointless exercise.

This is effectively a "because I said so" argument. I obviously don't think my opinion of Josh is low. I think my opinion of Josh is accurate.

I don't even know how I would gauge my opinion of Josh to be honest, I think he's really talented, but his weird combination of strengths and weaknesses simply don't mesh well with a winning NBA team as a starting caliber player, or at least, no one has shown me a good way that it does.

Certainly it is possible that Josh improves some of those weaknesses which might change things considerably, but watching him, I don't think it's overly likely.

[Infinity2152]

Scottie Barnes 38M (next year)
Evan Mobely 38M(next year)
Naz Reid 14M
Anthony Edwards 42M
Jaden McDaniels 23M
Chris Paul 10M
Malik Beasley 6M
Jalen Smith 9M

It's total 180 M

Sent from my SM-S9160 using RealGM mobile app

So we’re playing NBA 2K now?

So I'm not the only one who's spent hundreds of hours making trades in NBA franchise mode on 2K over the years? Trying to build the perfect fitting team while managing cap?

Wild thing is, real life trades are even more improbable. You're never getting that Luka trade or Mikal Bridges trade to go without forcing it.

[Guru]

Its pretty clear we are building around Giddey and Buzzey. All else is just sprinkles and icing.

[dougthonus]

From the link above, here's salaries for 24/25, 25/26, 26/27, 27/28:

56. Tyler Herro $29,000,000 $31,000,000 $33,000,000 $0
57. Nicolas Claxton $27,556,817 $25,352,272 $23,147,727 $20,943,184
58. Miles Bridges $27,173,913 $25,000,000 $22,826,087 $0
59. John Collins $26,580,000 $26,580,000 $0 $0
60. Andrew Wiggins $26,276,786 $28,223,215 $30,169,644 $0
61. Anfernee Simons $25,892,857 $27,678,571 $0 $0
62. RJ Barrett $25,794,643 $27,705,357 $29,616,071 $0
63. Tobias Harris $25,365,854 $26,634,146 $0 $0
64. Jaren Jackson Jr $25,257,798 $23,413,395 $0 $0
65. Jonathan Isaac $25,000,000 $15,000,000 $14,500,000 $14,500,000

I think at 22 with his performance, Giddey fits right in there in terms of value. John Collins? Tyler Herro? Tobias Harris? Jonathan Isaac?

It's kind of interesting because it shows you what a pain 25M players are.

A different question is how many of those guys do you want on your team at that price tag?

[Infinity2152]

From the link above, here's salaries for 24/25, 25/26, 26/27, 27/28:

56. Tyler Herro $29,000,000 $31,000,000 $33,000,000 $0
57. Nicolas Claxton $27,556,817 $25,352,272 $23,147,727 $20,943,184
58. Miles Bridges $27,173,913 $25,000,000 $22,826,087 $0
59. John Collins $26,580,000 $26,580,000 $0 $0
60. Andrew Wiggins $26,276,786 $28,223,215 $30,169,644 $0
61. Anfernee Simons $25,892,857 $27,678,571 $0 $0
62. RJ Barrett $25,794,643 $27,705,357 $29,616,071 $0
63. Tobias Harris $25,365,854 $26,634,146 $0 $0
64. Jaren Jackson Jr $25,257,798 $23,413,395 $0 $0
65. Jonathan Isaac $25,000,000 $15,000,000 $14,500,000 $14,500,000

I think at 22 with his performance, Giddey fits right in there in terms of value. John Collins? Tyler Herro? Tobias Harris? Jonathan Isaac?

It's kind of interesting because it shows you what a pain 25M players are.

A different question is how many of those guys do you want on your team at that price tag?

Pretty much all of them except Isaac, who's contract drops a lot. Isn't $25 mill close to average starter pay? Factor in age. most of those guys are 26 or under, seems a fair price for most.

[dougthonus]

You make a good point, but when I think about it. It is because they have a guy or guys who do what he does in their top 3, so the need doesn't match what you'd be replacing with the 4th guy.

Here is a challenge:

Create a championship contender using actual contracts. You can include anyone in the league you want on the team at their actual salary. You get to spend 185M total money.

What is the most you can pay Josh Giddey to be on that team, that I couldn't replace him with players that would better fit that team at a cheaper price.

For the sake of this argument, exclude rookie contract players in primary roles. I think if you go through this exercise, you'll find that the number it makes sense to have him on any contending team is probably sub 20M, possibly sub 15M, because he plays no role on a contending team.

What team is contending at <$185 mill without a rookie contract player in a primary role right now? Who are the legit contender's now:
OKC: Holgrem and Jalen Williams rookie contracts, at $165 mill
Celtics: $199 mill
Knicks: $188 mill
Cavaliers: Mobley on rookie contract, $$178 mill
Bucks: $195 mill
Lakers: $201 mill
Suns: $228 mill
Nuggets: $192 mill

Is the question could you build the cheapest legit contender in the league with Giddey on his second contract? Because OKC and Cavs money goes way up when they have to pay Jalen Williams, Chet Holgrem and Evan Mobley. Looks like average payroll of a contender is around $200 mill right now, if you factor second contract numbers for Williams, Holgrem and Mobley, like you're doing for Giddey.

Top 8 records and salaries:
Cleveland: 178M
OKC: 165M
Boston: 199M
Lakers: 200M
Denver: 192M
Memphis: 167M
Houston: 175M
Milwaukee: 195M

Average: 183.8M (given I rounded down the above because it was easier call it 185M)

Granted, you're right that some of them have valuable rookie deals. Wasn't trying to cheat the system, my 185 was just a random guess. The Suns aren't a contender every other team on your list except the Lakers is below 200M. Maybe 192M is more fair?

[jordanwilliams6]

Let's build a championship team with Giddey making $25 mill based on this year's salaries:

Josh Giddey: $25 mill
Donovan Mitchell: $35 mill
Mikal Bridges: $23 mill
Jaren Jackson Jr: $25 mill
Bam Adebayo $36 mill

$144 mill for the starters, luxury tax starts at $171. First apron is $178 mill. Would think with that team, you'd' be willing to at least go there. So $34 mill under the first apron to fill out a good bench, too many combinations to do. Bulls are profitable enough, they should be willing to go at least up to the second apron for a contender, if not over it. That's $189 mill this year. Add another $20 mill.

Replace Bam with Gafford, add another $23 mill to work with for a much deeper bench, still a legit contender. Or use $13 mill to go from Bridges to Ingram, and add $10 to the bench.

Josh Giddey, Donovan Mitchell, Brandon Ingram, JJJ, Gafford looks damn good. There's also Naz Reid, Robert Williams, a few other good $10-15 mill centers that could slot in at starter.

Donovan Mitchell is a good option. He’s the sort of player (in the Coby role) that would fit well next to Giddey.

I’m trying to be a bit more realistic with my players in terms of what could work. This is on the assumption that Buzelis can develop into a lower tier all star and has the ability to switch into a perimeter defender at times.

Giddey
Mitchell
Lonzo
Buzelis
Turner

[DuckIII]

You know me, I'm way to lazy to do that calculus.

I will say that if you replaced Ja with Giddey and replaced Clarke with a decent 3-D guy like Divencenzo, I'd roll with that Memphis team.

Wow, I would feel incredibly differently about that. Ja draws double teams, makes things happen, significantly moves the needle as a dominant player. Giddey has shown no such thing that I have seen, but fundamentally, I guess we either see Ja or Giddey very differently then

As someone who may appear to be sold on Giddey - I am not, I just see a thread with a lot of bad arguments - I want to make clear I don’t think Giddey = Ja.

[DuckIII]

The reality is that Josh was on a championship caliber team.

Kinda the end of the argument then. If you left Giddey on that team and replaced Williams with a solid role player they would still be a contender. They’d be less of a contender, but a contender nonetheless.

Who would argue that?

[Infinity2152]

Here is a challenge:

Create a championship contender using actual contracts. You can include anyone in the league you want on the team at their actual salary. You get to spend 185M total money.

What is the most you can pay Josh Giddey to be on that team, that I couldn't replace him with players that would better fit that team at a cheaper price.

For the sake of this argument, exclude rookie contract players in primary roles. I think if you go through this exercise, you'll find that the number it makes sense to have him on any contending team is probably sub 20M, possibly sub 15M, because he plays no role on a contending team.

What team is contending at <$185 mill without a rookie contract player in a primary role right now? Who are the legit contender's now:
OKC: Holgrem and Jalen Williams rookie contracts, at $165 mill
Celtics: $199 mill
Knicks: $188 mill
Cavaliers: Mobley on rookie contract, $$178 mill
Bucks: $195 mill
Lakers: $201 mill
Suns: $228 mill
Nuggets: $192 mill

Is the question could you build the cheapest legit contender in the league with Giddey on his second contract? Because OKC and Cavs money goes way up when they have to pay Jalen Williams, Chet Holgrem and Evan Mobley. Looks like average payroll of a contender is around $200 mill right now, if you factor second contract numbers for Williams, Holgrem and Mobley, like you're doing for Giddey.

Top 8 records and salaries:
Cleveland: 178M
OKC: 165M
Boston: 199M
Lakers: 200M
Denver: 192M
Memphis: 167M
Houston: 175M
Milwaukee: 195M

Average: 183.8M (given I rounded down the above because it was easier call it 185M)

Granted, you're right that some of them have valuable rookie deals. Wasn't trying to cheat the system, my 185 was just a random guess. The Suns aren't a contender every other team on your list except the Lakers is below 200M. Maybe 192M is more fair?

Were the Suns considered contenders at the start of the season? They certainly have the talent to be contenders, don't see how they wouldn't be considered because of the results.

Boston at $199 mill.

OKC, pay Holgrem and Jalen Williams, you're easily at $200 mill. They get around what the Rocket's player below got, $230+ mill.

Cleveland, Mobley's getting $38 mill next year. $27 mill over what he gets now puts Cleveland at $205 mill.

Do you really consider Memphis a contender, regardless of record? To win the championship? They also have 5 players making less than 2.2 mill, and 8 players making less than $6.5 mill. That's an anomaly.

Houston, Jalen Green goes to $33 mill next year and Sengun goes to $34 mill. If we're using Giddey's next contract, need to use theirs too. Pushes Houstons number to $244 mill with the same players on their second contracts. I think $200 mill is more than fair. If we use Giddey's current contract, it makes the argument more lopsided for most.

[dougthonus]

As someone who may appear to be sold on Giddey - I am not, I just see a thread with a lot of bad arguments - I want to make clear I don’t think Giddey = Ja.

FWIW, I don't hate Giddey. I think he can do a lot of things, and I think he's a good floor raiser, just struggle to see him ever being a ceiling raiser and think on a contender his current strengths / weaknesses are hard to fit in as a starter, and his price tag likely becomes expensive as a bench guy.

For where we are, that's maybe even fine, though depressing, because we're limiting our chances to get the ceiling raiser by continually trying to raise our floor, but not being able to raise it high enough to be interesting.

[Infinity2152]

Let's build a championship team with Giddey making $25 mill based on this year's salaries:

Josh Giddey: $25 mill
Donovan Mitchell: $35 mill
Mikal Bridges: $23 mill
Jaren Jackson Jr: $25 mill
Bam Adebayo $36 mill

$144 mill for the starters, luxury tax starts at $171. First apron is $178 mill. Would think with that team, you'd' be willing to at least go there. So $34 mill under the first apron to fill out a good bench, too many combinations to do. Bulls are profitable enough, they should be willing to go at least up to the second apron for a contender, if not over it. That's $189 mill this year. Add another $20 mill.

Replace Bam with Gafford, add another $23 mill to work with for a much deeper bench, still a legit contender. Or use $13 mill to go from Bridges to Ingram, and add $10 to the bench.

Josh Giddey, Donovan Mitchell, Brandon Ingram, JJJ, Gafford looks damn good. There's also Naz Reid, Robert Williams, a few other good $10-15 mill centers that could slot in at starter.

Donovan Mitchell is a good option. He’s the sort of player (in the Coby role) that would fit well next to Giddey.

I’m trying to be a bit more realistic with my players in terms of what could work. This is on the assumption that Buzelis can develop into a lower tier all star and has the ability to switch into a perimeter defender at times.

Giddey
Mitchell
Lonzo
Buzelis
Turner

If I was doing it with the Bulls roster, given the latitude of spending up to what the average contender is spending, and we think Matas could be low tier All Star and Lonzo can play starting minutes? Too easy. We already hopefully have a high skill level rookie joining this summer. You're right, Turner or any good center and that team is legit right now. Sco mentioned Booker earlier, another player who could just slot in.

I was just rebuilding a random team, lol. Having Ball at $10 mill, Matas on rookie, Coby at $12 mill and a good rookie makes it too easy if Lonzo and Matas are considered good-great starters. Ball and Matas give you two starters at $15 mill/yr for the next two years. At $25 mill for Giddey, you're at $40 mill for 3 starters. Long way to the first or second apron. We could add Mitchell and another All Star.

[WindyCityBorn]

As someone who may appear to be sold on Giddey - I am not, I just see a thread with a lot of bad arguments - I want to make clear I don’t think Giddey = Ja.

FWIW, I don't hate Giddey. I think he can do a lot of things, and I think he's a good floor raiser, just struggle to see him ever being a ceiling raiser and think on a contender his current strengths / weaknesses are hard to fit in as a starter, and his price tag likely becomes expensive as a bench guy.

For where we are, that's maybe even fine, though depressing, because we're limiting our chances to get the ceiling raiser by continually trying to raise our floor, but not being able to raise it high enough to be interesting.

All of his weaknesses can be improved and have shown improvement recently. You talk like $25 or even $30 million is max contract. He is not a bench player.

[kodo]

The average cap of the top 16 highest paying teams in the league this season is $194.5M.
I don't think we can throw out data points like Phoenix and Golden State because they just aren't doing well this season, they had every intention of being playoff teams when their teams were formed over the summer.

Next season is also looking to be much more expensive because a lot of players were still paid in the old era #s and need to be brought in line with how players are paid now. Tatum is still at $34M, after his extension his new average is $61M...because he clearly can't be paid less than Scotty Barnes at $45M-$54M.

GS is very happy with Butler, and he has a lot of intangibles but on the boxscore he's a 17/5/5 player and costs $60M next 2 years.