Josh Giddey - Conundrum Killer

[dougthonus]

All of his weaknesses can be improved and have shown improvement recently. You talk like $25 or even $30 million is max contract. He is not a bench player.

Which starters on top 10 teams do you think would replace a starter with Giddey and which starter do you think they'd replace?

[WindyCityBorn]

All of his weaknesses can be improved and have shown improvement recently. You talk like $25 or even $30 million is max contract. He is not a bench player.

Which starters on top 10 teams do you think would replace a starter with Giddey and which starter do you think they'd replace?

You tell me why he can’t be good enough to start for a top 10 team. You believe he is fully tapped out on development now and destined to be a bench player, but his play refutes that. He is shooting 3s better, getting to the free throw line and playing hard/hustling on defense. I guess he needs to become Luka to justify having ball in his hands for a significant amount of time?

[League Circles]

The reality is that Josh was on a championship caliber team.

Kinda the end of the argument then. If you left Giddey on that team and replaced Williams with a solid role player they would still be a contender. They’d be less of a contender, but a contender nonetheless.

Who would argue that?

It's not the end-all be-all, and I know it's been beaten to death but it's so unusual to justify repeating: would they still be a contending team that decides Giddey needs to play like 10-12 minutes a game when things matter most?

I'm with Doug that Giddey is really, really hard to evaluate. But the current enthusiasm for him truly breaks down to these few things:

1. He is a great passer. No argument whatsoever. Probably the best I've ever seen in a Bulls uniform.
2. He is currently putting up really nice counting stats for a bad team, and his numbers have gone up notably while the team loses almost every game. Hard to evaluate most individual numbers for losing teams IMO. Different situations have very different impacts on different guys. In various ways being on a bad team can inflate or depress individual statistics relative to what they would be if the same guy was on an actual good team. I truly don't know what to draw from the numbers he's been putting up lately. I don't want to fully count them so to speak nor try to dismiss them.
3. He was once on a good team and started every game. This is usually meaningful, but playoffs matter a lot. The regular season can sometimes have some really surprising trends in it, but the playoffs more often provide clarity. A great team can struggle in the regular season and make the finals from the 8th seed, while one of the top seeds can lose pretty bad in the first round or two because it really is a different game when you play a 7 game series. BJ Armstrong and Toni Kukoc were similar comps for the 55 win 93-94 Bulls to Giddey with last year's Thunder. Giddey needs to be a lot better than either of those guys ever ended up being IMO to justify a 4 or 5 year deal with the Bulls for significantly over the MLE. BJ Armstrong was an all star that year lol!!!

[dougthonus]

You tell me why he can’t be good enough to start for a top 10 team. You believe he is fully tapped out on development now and destined to be a bench player, but his play refutes that. He is shooting 3s better, getting to the free throw line and playing hard/hustling on defense. I guess he needs to become Luka to justify having ball in his hands for a significant amount of time?

If you want the role of primary ball handler on a contending team, you should be a top 15ish player. Giddey's skillset as a non primary ball handler isn't very valuable. If he can improve that off-ball skillset, then he would fit in a lot better.

[WindyCityBorn]

You tell me why he can’t be good enough to start for a top 10 team. You believe he is fully tapped out on development now and destined to be a bench player, but his play refutes that. He is shooting 3s better, getting to the free throw line and playing hard/hustling on defense. I guess he needs to become Luka to justify having ball in his hands for a significant amount of time?

If you want the role of primary ball handler on a contending team, you should be a top 15ish player.

I disagree. And even that were true when/where are we getting this top 15 player that is also the de facto point guard?

[dougthonus]

I disagree. And even that were true when/where are we getting this top 15 player that is also the de facto point guard?

We probably aren't, which is why we aren't building towards being a contending team. Which is why my strategy, as I've stated the past few years would be about asset accumulation rather than floor raising players.

Giddey will make us better than not having Giddey, and if we want to aim for 35 wins instead of 25 wins, I think he'll be a big help.

[dougthonus]

The reality is that Josh was on a championship caliber team.

Kinda the end of the argument then. If you left Giddey on that team and replaced Williams with a solid role player they would still be a contender. They’d be less of a contender, but a contender nonetheless.

Who would argue that?

Sure, and they didn't want him, and they benched him in the playoffs.

To me, Giddey is the PG Vucevic.

[WindyCityBorn]

I disagree. And even that were true when/where are we getting this top 15 player that is also the de facto point guard?

We probably aren't, which is why we aren't building towards being a contending team. Which is why my strategy, as I've stated the past few years would be about asset accumulation rather than floor raising players.

Giddey will make us better than not having Giddey, and if we want to aim for 35 wins instead of 25 wins, I think he'll be a big help.

So you’re saying if we had prime Tim Duncan and Ray Allen we still wouldn’t win a championship because they are not lead facilitators?

[dougthonus]

So you’re saying if we had prime Tim Duncan and Ray Allen we still wouldn’t win a championship because they are not lead facilitators?

If you have prime Tim Duncan, what percentage of the time is the ball in Josh Giddey's hands? I'd guess just the amount of time it takes to get the ball to Duncan, and then Duncan is annoyed because he's automatically double teamed by Giddey's guy.

Which again, gets back to the point, Giddey either needs to be good off the ball or dominant on the ball. He's presently neither. I don't see him ever being a dominant on-ball player nor a good off ball player, and in a modern offense, if you aren't one or the other, then it is hard to see a fit.

If he was a lock down defender, it'd be different, but because he's probably going to always cost you 2-3 points on defense per game vs a replacement player, he needs to make up for it on offense. If he doesn't have the ball in his hands, he's not doing that as an off-ball player, and as your main on-ball guy, he's simply not good enough.

But hey, if you disagree or you see some other fit, fair enough. I don't hate Giddey, I'm not trying to kill the guy, I just haven't seen an adequate description of how this is supposed to work. If you want to keep Giddey because we've got nothing else going on, I get it. Talent wise, he's probably the most talented guy we have, that doesn't change the other problems though.

[DrModesty]

Trying to see how 22 year old Giddey would fit on contenders not built with him in mind, to judge what 23-27 year old Giddey should be paid is dumb. There is a term for 22 year old lead ball handlers on legit contenders. All time greats. And they aren't paid 3rd/4th starter level money on their extensions.

Also lets say Giddey were to get paid $30m. Currently the guys getting $30m AAV are the 71-75th biggest contracts. If Giddey were to sign that as a 5 year deal, then by the end it would be at the fringes (in or out) of 100 biggest contracts. If you instead paid him $25m, that changes to 87-90th most highly paid players, and close to the 120-30 range at the end of his contract. That does not take in to account players on rookie deals who are forced to be underpaid.

If you as an individual fan don't want to pay him (much) above the MLE, that is fine. You are living in lala land if you think an NBA franchise bereft of talent is going to behave that way. It makes you seem out of touch on what NBA salaries are in todays game.

[sco]

You tell me why he can’t be good enough to start for a top 10 team. You believe he is fully tapped out on development now and destined to be a bench player, but his play refutes that. He is shooting 3s better, getting to the free throw line and playing hard/hustling on defense. I guess he needs to become Luka to justify having ball in his hands for a significant amount of time?

If you want the role of primary ball handler on a contending team, you should be a top 15ish player. Giddey's skillset as a non primary ball handler isn't very valuable. If he can improve that off-ball skillset, then he would fit in a lot better.

I get Doug's point. It isn't as much that Giddey isn't good as a primary ball handler, it's that today's contending teams all seem to have their primary scorer as their primary ball handler.

While I do agree that Giddey isn't likely to become an elite primary scorer, I do think that there are teams that if you had Giddey as a primary ball handler, that they could be contenders where they aren't now. I'm thinking about Minny, Miami or Phoenix, off the top of my head.

[mikejames23]

Error - delete

[DrModesty]

You tell me why he can’t be good enough to start for a top 10 team. You believe he is fully tapped out on development now and destined to be a bench player, but his play refutes that. He is shooting 3s better, getting to the free throw line and playing hard/hustling on defense. I guess he needs to become Luka to justify having ball in his hands for a significant amount of time?

If you want the role of primary ball handler on a contending team, you should be a top 15ish player. Giddey's skillset as a non primary ball handler isn't very valuable. If he can improve that off-ball skillset, then he would fit in a lot better.

I get Doug's point. It isn't as much that Giddey isn't good as a primary ball handler, it's that today's contending teams all seem to have their primary scorer as their primary ball handler.

While I do agree that Giddey isn't likely to become an elite primary scorer, I do think that there are teams that if you had Giddey as a primary ball handler, that they could be contenders where they aren't now. I'm thinking about Minny, Miami or Phoenix, off the top of my head.

I would add a healthy Dallas to that list.

[ShouldaPaidBG]

Trying to see how 22 year old Giddey would fit on contenders not built with him in mind, to judge what 23-28 year old Giddey should be paid is dumb. There is a term for 22 year old lead ball handlers on legit contenders. All time greats. And they aren't paid 3rd/4th starter level money on their extensions.

Also lets say Giddey were to get paid $30m. Currently the guys getting $30m AAV are the 71-75th biggest contracts. If Giddey were to sign that as a 5 year deal, then by the end it would be at the fringes (in or out) of 100 biggest contracts. If you instead paid him $25m, that changes to 87-90th most highly paid players, and close to the 120-30 range at the end of his contract. That does not take in to account players on rookie deals who are forced to be underpaid.

If you as an individual fan don't want to pay him (much) above the MLE, that is fine. You are living in lala land if you think an NBA franchise bereft of talent is going to behave that way. It makes you seem out of touch on what NBA salaries are in todays game.

Yes plus even if you have to go up to 35m per year that would still be a steal compared to most of the players earning more.

[Guru]

The reality is that Josh was on a championship caliber team.

Kinda the end of the argument then. If you left Giddey on that team and replaced Williams with a solid role player they would still be a contender. They’d be less of a contender, but a contender nonetheless.

Who would argue that?

Sure, and they didn't want him, and they benched him in the playoffs.

To me, Giddey is the PG Vucevic.

As in you have foreclosed on him being bad and your had can't grasp anything outside of that. Your analytics tell you a story that you can't break. Its the reason analytics are only good for so much. The rigidity of this mindset has to suck all of the reality of the happenstance which makes sports great. You probably get mad at Cinderellas in March Madness. Hate upsets.

[Guru]

Giddey and Lonzo are an ideal backcourt to play with 2 rookies. They are extremely intelligent and play will demand that young players up their sophistication quickly to score easy buckets. His contract will be worth it simply by jumpstarting the youth.

[AhUtopian]

Scottie Barnes 38M (next year)
Evan Mobely 38M(next year)
Naz Reid 14M
Anthony Edwards 42M
Jaden McDaniels 23M
Chris Paul 10M
Malik Beasley 6M
Jalen Smith 9M

It's total 180 M

Sent from my SM-S9160 using RealGM mobile app

So we’re playing NBA 2K now?

I am just trying to responding Doug's 185 M challenge , but not properly "replying".

Sent from my SM-S9160 using RealGM mobile app

[Chi town]

The reality is that Josh was on a championship caliber team.

Kinda the end of the argument then. If you left Giddey on that team and replaced Williams with a solid role player they would still be a contender. They’d be less of a contender, but a contender nonetheless.

Who would argue that?

Sure, and they didn't want him, and they benched him in the playoffs.

To me, Giddey is the PG Vucevic.

Doesn’t get any lower that that, Doug.

Obviously would like to know which Vuc you are talking about and if Giddey is 22yr old Giddey or who you think he will become.

[dougthonus]

I get Doug's point. It isn't as much that Giddey isn't good as a primary ball handler, it's that today's contending teams all seem to have their primary scorer as their primary ball handler.

While I do agree that Giddey isn't likely to become an elite primary scorer, I do think that there are teams that if you had Giddey as a primary ball handler, that they could be contenders where they aren't now. I'm thinking about Minny, Miami or Phoenix, off the top of my head.

No way to know for sure because we don't get to see it, but I don't think so.

Minnesota has Conley there now whom is a good defender, passer, and shooter. He seems like a way better complement to Edwards, Randle, Gobert, and McDaniels given that three of the four of those guys can't shoot. Minnesota is an elite defensive team with an okay-ish offense. Hard to see Giddey making a positive impact on their offense since their biggest problem is probably lack of shooting and they keep the ball in Edwards hands all the time. Moving the ball out of Edwards hands and playing four non-shooters doesn't seem like it would create a better offense while his defensive problems would weaken their elite defense.

Phoenix is 9th in offensive rating and 27th in defensive rating, not sure what problem Giddey solves there, maybe he helps their offense a shade in getting Durant / Booker better set ups, but they have no shotblocking, and he weakens their already porous defense. Also fair chance he just creates a much easier situation to double Durant/Booker on offense, and the Suns also probably don't want the ball in Giddey's hands with Booker/Durant on the team.

Miami is just leagues away from being a contender talentwise and isn't even worth discussion as a contender post Butler trade.

[dougthonus]

Kinda the end of the argument then. If you left Giddey on that team and replaced Williams with a solid role player they would still be a contender. They’d be less of a contender, but a contender nonetheless.

Who would argue that?

Sure, and they didn't want him, and they benched him in the playoffs.

To me, Giddey is the PG Vucevic.

Doesn’t get any lower that that, Doug.

Obviously would like to know which Vuc you are talking about and if Giddey is 22yr old Giddey or who you think he will become.

Fundamentally, ball dominant, low efficiency, non gravity creating, poor defenders are guys I would never sign on my team. I don't think they ever do anything meaningful for you whatsoever, and any money you pay them is a waste.

Giddey is such a player, so is Vuc (in almost any year of his career).

People always think that if you just get the right talent around them or the right whatever that it will work, but it doesn't and it won't, but the problem is always that the shots are always better off going to someone whom isn't low efficiency or does create gravity, so the volume is actually a negative not a positive, and the defense always kills you on the other end.

As the NBA has become way more analytically stratified, this is even more true than ever before. Every year you look at the trade deadline and every team is looking only for defense and shooting to complement their star players.

For Giddey to have 25M in value to me, he needs to become an efficient scorer either by shooting the three really well and in higher volume or by getting enough physicality to considerably increase his foul draw rate.