NBA Trade Thread #12

[MrSparkle]

The wise thing to do, would be to trade Lonzo before the season starts, if(!) there’s a decent offer.

I think he can help a contender in very, very low minutes… major load management, bubble wrap. He’s an amazing boost. Total waste of his talent on the Bulls.

[Dez]

It's hard to argue with people who just assume Lonzo's going to be hurt. The majority of his time lost was due to one injury, that's supposedly healed.

It's always risk/reward. Lonzo's ceiling is higher than almost anybody being proposed, especially a late first that's probably later when the team adds Ball. He's what, 27? The highest BBall IQ on the team, locked up for years. He could easily be the best value contract on the team. Keeping Ball is extremely low risk and low cost, there are at least 10 other Bulls I'd trade before Lonzo. Don't know why people keep trying to push out the one guy who clearly knows how to play both ways and be a floor leader.

There's a reason why so many teams seem to be thrown in Ball trades, he seems to be our most in demand player, lol! I could see wanting to trade him when he was making $20 mill/yr, but $10 mill and team option the next seems super low risk. Hope Giddey is learning from him at least the next two years, personally. The next vet PG is Jevon Carter.

Are you referring to the knee soreness or the sprained wrist that kept him out for an absurd time.

It's completely valid assuming Ball is going to be injured because his entire career has been littered with minor and major injuries.

I don't understand how someone can question this?

[boozapalooza]

It's hard to argue with people who just assume Lonzo's going to be hurt. The majority of his time lost was due to one injury, that's supposedly healed.

It's always risk/reward. Lonzo's ceiling is higher than almost anybody being proposed, especially a late first that's probably later when the team adds Ball. He's what, 27? The highest BBall IQ on the team, locked up for years. He could easily be the best value contract on the team. Keeping Ball is extremely low risk and low cost, there are at least 10 other Bulls I'd trade before Lonzo. Don't know why people keep trying to push out the one guy who clearly knows how to play both ways and be a floor leader.

There's a reason why so many teams seem to be thrown in Ball trades, he seems to be our most in demand player, lol! I could see wanting to trade him when he was making $20 mill/yr, but $10 mill and team option the next seems super low risk. Hope Giddey is learning from him at least the next two years, personally. The next vet PG is Jevon Carter.

Are you referring to the knee soreness or the sprained wrist that kept him out for an absurd time.

It's completely valid assuming Ball is going to be injured because his entire career has been littered with minor and major injuries.

I don't understand how someone can question this?

I would say at max you could expect 60 games from Lonzo but even that feels like a reach. Any acquiring team isnt going to expect him to suit up for more than that.

That said, for a contending team, you just need Lonzo healthy for the playoffs. If I was Dallas, Minnesota, Orlando, Memphis, LAC, just to name a few teams who should be interested, the concept of getting Lonzo for $10 mil this year with a team option in year 2 is a steal. Health is definitely a factor but there will still be no shortage of interested teams.

Lets not forget Memphis offered a FRP at the deadline this past season and we turned it down. The asking price is set.

[GuardianEnzo]

A FRP with bad salary attached. Not an insignificant distinction.

[Dez]

A FRP with bad salary attached. Not an insignificant distinction.

Irrelevant though, we're not getting anything with cap space.

[WesPeace]

A FRP with bad salary attached. Not an insignificant distinction.

Irrelevant though, we're not getting anything with cap space.

We could this time, with only 10M salary...with 20M it was different?! Just 2nd rounder maybe..

[Infinity2152]

How many times did people say Derrick Rose was done? How many years did he play in the NBA after injuries just as severe? The Bulls have more detailed knowledge on Ball's injury than anybody on the planet. Who knows how many games he COULD have possibly played last year, they were bringing him back slow, and not trying to win the second half of the season much.

He doesn't need to play more than 20 mins/gm to be worth twice what he's getting. Fully healthy Ball is getting upwards of $40 mill in this market. There's the extra cost of trading the best, highest IQ vet when you're trying to bring up young guys.

Prospects and draft picks are risky too. Late draft picks are usually low level, on your team for 4 years, not contributing much (See Dalen Terry, Julian Phillips). Most will never reach Ball's level.

The upside of keeping Ball? If he's healthy the next two years, that's one of the best contracts in the league, even at sixth man. In terms of impact on winning, there's no arguing it's a better team with him. He could play 5-8 more years and we look completely stupid for bailing on him once he got healthy and showed he can play again.

[Dez]

Fully healthy Lonzo Ball doesn't exist and no FO that values their jobs is giving him 40 million.

Derrick Rose isn't a counter argument, he reinvented himself and had a decent career as a bench piece.

[pipfan]

I like keeping Ball for his leadership. Play him max 20 minutes, and let him sit some out. The guy could be a great trade piece at the deadline

[sco]

Fully healthy Lonzo Ball doesn't exist and no FO that values their jobs is giving him 40 million.

Derrick Rose isn't a counter argument, he reinvented himself and had a decent career as a bench piece.

I used to feel similarly, that said, I'm open to the notion that Ball has sufficiently recovered his knee based on his play that it is no longer a foregone conclusion that he can't be effective and healthy enough to become a guy in a Caruso role (20-24mpg 3-D player + backup PG off the bench, with huge +/- impact). Still, if he can bring back a starting C or decent 1st in return, I'd be ok...doubly-so if we are able to retain Jones who brings much of the same.

[sco]

So here's a thought I had during morning coffee.

What if we could trade Coby for 2 (likely non-lotto) first round picks...would you do it?

Why do it:
- What this team needs is a (future contender level) #1 option and Coby is not at that level
- Coby's next deal may get in the way of signing or trading for that #1 option
- Those 2 firsts might be useful trade assets
- Coby's below average defense (in conjunction with Giddey's average at best defense) is unworkable as a foundation
- Huerter and Ayo, while not nearly as good offensively, may not cause a big drop-off because they are both 2-way capable players with 3pt range

Why not do it.
- Coby is young
- Coby is a great leader
- Coby continues to improve every year to the point where you may get him up to Giddey's level of averageness
- Coby, even under his next deal may be a useful trade asset for a #1 option

[ChettheJet]

OK

Coby isn't going to be a #1option, how many years did we hear that Zach Lavine wasn't a #1 option? There aren't 20 #1 options in the league and many teams lack one.
You cannot rule out that Coby may be worth his next contract, hey it happens because you don't know what he's going to sign for. He may be the great #2 option and they trade other guys for #1.
Neither of those 2 1sts 15-25 are ever going to be as good as Coby
People need to start listing the players you want who they KNOW cane pitch in 20-25ppg AND are above average defenders. It's a very shot list of guys you're dreaming about and they don't come on the market for under $30M
Now Huerter and Ayo though less talented are now acceptable alternatives

The other thing is all the people who have been so hot to trade for Zion somehow can put aside his injury history, think his maybe 60 games are worth the money he gets but Lonzo at $10M can't be helpful for those same 60 games. How many other players could be signed for the difference in what Zion is paid and what Lonzo gets?

[Infinity2152]

Fully healthy Lonzo Ball doesn't exist and no FO that values their jobs is giving him 40 million.

Derrick Rose isn't a counter argument, he reinvented himself and had a decent career as a bench piece.

Rose's game was based on elite physicality much more and he played a lot of years after he was written off. PG13 wasn't supposed to play anymore. Steph was supposed to be injured and have a short career. I could counter with many players that were written off. Rose stayed in the league like 8 more years after he left the Bulls. I watched Chicago when everybody wrote him off. Became a better shooter. He worked his way back to 18Pts/gm, in the running for 6MOY three years in a row. Had 14, 15 pts/gm the following three. Worked his way back to decent bench player, lmao!!! And he kept playing under Thibs, the most likely to injure you coach in the league if he likes you!

Saying fully healthy Ball doesn't exist, so what? You can estimate what a healthy 27 yr old player who puts up his numbers with his defense is worth. In my estimation, 27 yr olds who play good defense, shoot threes, great playmakers, good rebounder,, triple doubles what is he bad at? That player is worth at least $40 mill/yr. Coby might get that.

A less healthy version of that same player has to have some value. Half the NBA is injured all the damn time now. Nobody plays 82 games. You all aren't using medical reasons or science to say why he's going to be injured. "It usually happens, so it will happen again" does not show causation or evidence. If you have MEDICAL reasons to believe the same injury will re-occur, please present it. If you have MEDICAL reasons (bone density, familial history, diagnosed heart problems), please present that. NBA players get injured at random, some RANDOMLY more often and/or more severely than others.

He may never be Fully Healthy Lonzo again. If he works his way back to being in the running for 6MOY three years straight, I'm good. He doesn't have to reinvent himself, we've seen him play since his last major injury, he's not significantly slower, always going to be 6'6, always going to be a cerebral player.

[Infinity2152]

Fully healthy Lonzo Ball doesn't exist and no FO that values their jobs is giving him 40 million.

Derrick Rose isn't a counter argument, he reinvented himself and had a decent career as a bench piece.

I used to feel similarly, that said, I'm open to the notion that Ball has sufficiently recovered his knee based on his play that it is no longer a foregone conclusion that he can't be effective and healthy enough to become a guy in a Caruso role (20-24mpg 3-D player + backup PG off the bench, with huge +/- impact). Still, if he can bring back a starting C or decent 1st in return, I'd be ok...doubly-so if we are able to retain Jones who brings much of the same.

The Caruso comparison is extremely apt. That's exactly the role I'm looking to be him in, at least to start. How many games did Caruso miss? He was still extremely valuable, especially his vet impact on the court. His value skyrocketed and THEN we traded him for Giddey.

I'd be 100% fine with Giddey, Ball and Jones all on the roster. We don't have a SG that can play defense, and Lonzo can play off ball with Giddey or Jones and keep that high IQ on the court. I think at 6'6 Lonzo could also sub at SF easily, so fitting him in a sixth man role would be easy.

[MrSparkle]

Coby’s advanced metrics are really mediocre for a 6Y offensive guard with below-average defense. The 6-week blitz couldn’t make up for his season averages. 15.5 PER and 60% TS is nice but nothing spectacular, since he doesn’t give you much else.

OTOH the 3P lineups (with Huerter or Zach, Vuc, hot Giddey) were pluses. He is our best 3P shooter. But I floated the Coby for ORL’s two FRP idea a month ago. I would do it, because I don’t think we’re in position to build around a bunch of veteran FAs looking for big extensions. Even on the low side of anything reasonable, $15-20M, Coby has not shown consistency as a lead option. 6Y straight of 1-2 month hot streaks.

Shows me he’s capable of big nights, but not reliable. IMO he’s a good addition for a team that could afford $20-25M to add him to the mix. If we’re paying him $25-30M to be our top scorer, we’re gonna struggle.

[Chi town]

Coby’s advanced metrics are really mediocre for a 6Y offensive guard with below-average defense. The 6-week blitz couldn’t make up for his season averages. 15.5 PER and 60% TS is nice but nothing spectacular.

OTOH the 3P lineups (with Huerter or Zach, Vuc, hot Giddey) were pluses. He is our best 3P shooter. But I floated the Coby for ORL’s two FRP idea a month ago. I would do it, because I don’t think we’re in position to build around a bunch of veteran FAs looking for big extensions. Even on the low side of anything reasonable, $15-20M, Coby has not shown consistency as a lead option. 6Y straight of 1-2 month hot streaks.

No way I’m taking 16 and 25 for Coby.

People are now underrating Coby big time all because of a contract that no one knows will be.

[jnrjr79]

Coby’s advanced metrics are really mediocre for a 6Y offensive guard with below-average defense. The 6-week blitz couldn’t make up for his season averages. 15.5 PER and 60% TS is nice but nothing spectacular.

OTOH the 3P lineups (with Huerter or Zach, Vuc, hot Giddey) were pluses. He is our best 3P shooter. But I floated the Coby for ORL’s two FRP idea a month ago. I would do it, because I don’t think we’re in position to build around a bunch of veteran FAs looking for big extensions. Even on the low side of anything reasonable, $15-20M, Coby has not shown consistency as a lead option. 6Y straight of 1-2 month hot streaks.

No way I’m taking 16 and 25 for Coby.

People are now underrating Coby big time all because of a contract that no one knows will be.

I get not wanting to do that deal, but I assume the uncertainty around his contract/free agency is why you wouldn't be able to trade him for a haul. The receiving team would inherit the same issue.

[sco]

Coby’s advanced metrics are really mediocre for a 6Y offensive guard with below-average defense. The 6-week blitz couldn’t make up for his season averages. 15.5 PER and 60% TS is nice but nothing spectacular.

OTOH the 3P lineups (with Huerter or Zach, Vuc, hot Giddey) were pluses. He is our best 3P shooter. But I floated the Coby for ORL’s two FRP idea a month ago. I would do it, because I don’t think we’re in position to build around a bunch of veteran FAs looking for big extensions. Even on the low side of anything reasonable, $15-20M, Coby has not shown consistency as a lead option. 6Y straight of 1-2 month hot streaks.

No way I’m taking 16 and 25 for Coby.

People are now underrating Coby big time all because of a contract that no one knows will be.

I get not wanting to do that deal, but I assume the uncertainty around his contract/free agency is why you wouldn't be able to trade him for a haul. The receiving team would inherit the same issue.

Also, there is a bit of conflicting logic. If we're underrating Coby, then we're likely right about the contract being $30M+. If he signs a deal for $20M, he's likely regressed back to historical averages. But to be fair, we do have that "protection" for overpaying, but if he is just what he was, I would be even more motivated to getting 16 and 25 for him, but it would be too late.

[Infinity2152]

If the Bulls do decide to move Coby for picks, would prefer they be future picks. Our roster is extremely crowded for the next year, new guys would get little play while we're still trying to figure out if Ayo, Phillips or Terry are coming back plus our rookie at 12.. Again, would prefer to trade Coby for more established talent, but if it's for two picks and we take future picks, good chance one or both are above 16 and 25, depending on the team.

[2weekswithpay]

Two non-lottery picks for Coby is an easy yes IMO.

As for why, Coby can score on good volume and efficiency, but what else does he bring? He can play with and without the ball, but he's not a great isolation scorer who forces doubles, and he isn't an elite off-ball shooter who runs off screens. He can't defend, and he's only a solid passer.

Volume scorers like this can be a vital part of a great team, but they are flawed and shouldn't be treated as irreplaceable pieces. We went through this with Zach.