Bears talk 2.0; Fields era begins for real for real
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Re: Bears talk 2.0; Fields era begins for real for real
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Re: Bears talk 2.0; Fields era begins for real for real
Nah let the kid takes his bumps. If he’s going to be great, he needs to go through this stretch and come out stronger. Otherwise, he’s not the guy.
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Re: Bears talk 2.0; Fields era begins for real for real
bullsnewdynasty wrote:jmajew wrote:I didn't get to watch the game yesterday as I was at a wedding, but what is happening is the same thing that happened with Mitch in this system.
The Andy Reid system is great if you have a good O-Line, good position players, and a good QB. AKA you need good drafting because you can't afford to sign that many of those. Hence, the reason KC is now struggling offensively. If you do not have all three of those the system will fail.
It is time to blow this up and bring in Brian Daboll or Greg Roman. Those are the two OCs that can work with Fields. Sadly, Daboll is going to work wonders with Mitch. I could see him getting a HC gig next year and bring Mitch with him to be his starter.
I see this idea being floated around a lot of places and I truly don't get it.
Trubisky is still a terrible starting quarterback. Accuracy has nothing to do with your HC or offensive coordinator yet Trubisky was consistently ranked as one of the least accurate starting QB's in the NFL from a clean pocket.
Nagy has very little to do with Fields being bad. He's just clearly not ready to play. Unfortunately, guys like Watson, Mahomes, and Herbert are the exception, not the norm. It is very rare for rookies to come in and be successful immediately.
The issue with Trubisky is that he was still overthrowing open receivers and making rookie type mental mistakes in years 3 and 4 when he was supposed to start figuring stuff out, despite the training wheels/pass he would get due to the fact that he started 10 games in college or whatever.
Caught up in the QB discussion is the fact that the defense hasn't been able to stop anybody since 2018.
The Bears problem with Trubisky and Fields is that they did not build the team through the trenches. Every great team is built through the trenches. I see that statement as fact. When you have a great offensive line any QB can look good and a good QB looks unbeatable. That is why at times Rodgers looked only good and other years he has looked great.
The Bears have tried to piece together an offensive line every year Pace has been here. In 2018 when Mitch looked pretty good the offensive line was good to great for a good chunk of the year. Nagy's system in particular needs a good/great offensive line. There is a reason the Chiefs Offense looks pretty bad right now. They still have Mahomes, Kelce, & Hill but they look bad. What changed...the offensive line. You can hide a bad offensive line by using a lot of two TE sets, not using an empty backfield,etc. If you build your roster around that system you sure as Heck need a good offensive line. If you don't no matter how good your skill position players are they still can't get open in 2 seconds or less.
Mitch could be a league average QB in the right system. Nagy's system is not the right system for any QB if you don't have a good/great O-Line.
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Re: Bears talk 2.0; Fields era begins for real for real
jmajew wrote:bullsnewdynasty wrote:jmajew wrote:I didn't get to watch the game yesterday as I was at a wedding, but what is happening is the same thing that happened with Mitch in this system.
The Andy Reid system is great if you have a good O-Line, good position players, and a good QB. AKA you need good drafting because you can't afford to sign that many of those. Hence, the reason KC is now struggling offensively. If you do not have all three of those the system will fail.
It is time to blow this up and bring in Brian Daboll or Greg Roman. Those are the two OCs that can work with Fields. Sadly, Daboll is going to work wonders with Mitch. I could see him getting a HC gig next year and bring Mitch with him to be his starter.
I see this idea being floated around a lot of places and I truly don't get it.
Trubisky is still a terrible starting quarterback. Accuracy has nothing to do with your HC or offensive coordinator yet Trubisky was consistently ranked as one of the least accurate starting QB's in the NFL from a clean pocket.
Nagy has very little to do with Fields being bad. He's just clearly not ready to play. Unfortunately, guys like Watson, Mahomes, and Herbert are the exception, not the norm. It is very rare for rookies to come in and be successful immediately.
The issue with Trubisky is that he was still overthrowing open receivers and making rookie type mental mistakes in years 3 and 4 when he was supposed to start figuring stuff out, despite the training wheels/pass he would get due to the fact that he started 10 games in college or whatever.
Caught up in the QB discussion is the fact that the defense hasn't been able to stop anybody since 2018.
The Bears problem with Trubisky and Fields is that they did not build the team through the trenches. Every great team is built through the trenches. I see that statement as fact. When you have a great offensive line any QB can look good and a good QB looks unbeatable. That is why at times Rodgers looked only good and other years he has looked great.
The Bears have tried to piece together an offensive line every year Pace has been here. In 2018 when Mitch looked pretty good the offensive line was good to great for a good chunk of the year. Nagy's system in particular needs a good/great offensive line. There is a reason the Chiefs Offense looks pretty bad right now. They still have Mahomes, Kelce, & Hill but they look bad. What changed...the offensive line. You can hide a bad offensive line by using a lot of two TE sets, not using an empty backfield,etc. If you build your roster around that system you sure as Heck need a good offensive line. If you don't no matter how good your skill position players are they still can't get open in 2 seconds or less.
Mitch could be a league average QB in the right system. Nagy's system is not the right system for any QB if you don't have a good/great O-Line.
This is true. No one is going to look good behind that line, but especially not an inexperienced rookie qb. They at least tried this year, drafting two lineman. They should have started doing that 5 years ago, and kept doing it until they got it right.
Re: Bears talk 2.0; Fields era begins for real for real
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Re: Bears talk 2.0; Fields era begins for real for real
Speaking of building in the trenches:
If those two can get going and Montgomery comes back, the offense will have me excited because that's a foundation to build on.
Not sure why we're playing Byrd/Goodwin so much when they're clearly not playmakers. I'd love to see us nab Olave from tOSU to partner alongside Mooney.
If those two can get going and Montgomery comes back, the offense will have me excited because that's a foundation to build on.
Not sure why we're playing Byrd/Goodwin so much when they're clearly not playmakers. I'd love to see us nab Olave from tOSU to partner alongside Mooney.
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Re: Bears talk 2.0; Fields era begins for real for real
While I do think we could possibly ruin almost any QB--there are for sure some worrying signs with Fields.
1-The fumbles on the sacks are almost historical anomalies
2-He has a ridiculously high sack rate.
I think on the plus--he throws a nice deep ball already.
I agree with Romo and many others--I still don't feel we have stripped down the complexity of the offense for rookie training wheels. Nor are we giving him easy targets.
The run game is good--but really mid pack on yards after contact and lower than average on yards before contact. Our guys are breaking tackles is what is happening (5th in NFL and 3rd in rate). We should feature an even MORE rush heavy team--and screen plays using these RBs.
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2021/advanced.htm
Guess who's last in league in YAC? 2nd worst in YAC per catch?
Guess who is top in play action - Ravens, Cards, Chargers, Bills, Chiefs, Titans.
Bears 7th lowest rate (and 1/2 that of Ravens)
How about RPO plays for a fast QB? We run it about as much as TB, lower than average.
I just don't know what we are doing scheme wise--its' clear it isn't working well yet we don't adjust
Bears are 7th in drop rate overall.
The Pats have a 72% team catch rate, the bears 64%. Again a lot is scheme and plan.
Where the F are the passes to RBs who are actually good at breaking tackles.
And look at TB with TB12/the GOAT--their RB receptions
Fournette 27
Bernard with 19.
Bears top two
Williams 11
Herbert 7
So you are telling me that the best QB of all time needs more 2.5x RB dump offs than Fields?
(Insert Gene Wilder Willy Wonka "you don't say" meme here)
He holds on too long many times--but I think this is more fixable.
I see people questioning IQ and I think a distinction needs to be made. Justin got a 29 ACT, 3.9 GPA and did well on all cognitive tests AFAIK. He was basically all time good at some recall mental aptitude test https://bearswire.usatoday.com/2021/05/03/bears-nfl-draft-justin-fields-highest-aptitude-test-score/
What he might not have (yet) is "Blitz" IQ. My hope is we'd see something in flashes here and there. All his good plays he's had time--great--but to be a top QB you also need to read that dump off. Again I'm not putting that 100% on him--in almost any situation where he's pressured--I'm not seeing guys open really.
I think of it as Blitz chess is to chess. You need to be able to make superfast lighting decisions right away. What we don't know is if he has the Blitz IQ. (its not a perfect analogy top chess players actually play both). I think that obviously develops to an extent--the ones that are "NFL ready" have this and schemes to maximize it day one.
A lot of issues I think are fixable--but what is problematic is fumbles and sacks. Either we are not working on ball security or he has historically bad hands/bad habit the way he hold football (no idea). Same with sacks--while the line is bad and some sacks are just too fast for anyone--there is a good 1/3+ of his sacks where he needs to dump/throw it away or make a decisive move to scramble away. He's getting sacked at almost a 15% clip. I think he could cut that down to 10%--still bad but not all world bad. So if he's not doing this (he's not) is it a point of emphasis--do they have blitz / dump off drills, throwing ball away etc? When I hear the press conferences--I sure as hell hope this is sunshine blowing and Nagy doesn't really think like this. But they are not throwing screens to beat the blitz--the TB vs CHI RB passes are massive--I noticed during the game--they did this to kill any rush of ours.
And either he is hesitating on pulling up and running (I didn't watch him in college) or he is being coached specifically to not to run (which we seemingly also saw in Mitch). In any case at this point--the better move would be to run if nothing is open. I question if he's playing hurt after his knee as well-tough and overeager to start--and 22 yo.
Good news is the kid is still 22 and appears to have the work ethic and for sure he will get better in all areas--but do we even have the right guys teaching / scheming right now? And will he get good enough to be a good enough QB - he doesn't need to be Tom Brady--but a guy who can help win more than you lose. This is unknown but the better question for us is--will the bears help make him a better QB as we currently stand? That I'm not so sure of.
IMO we for sure don't have the right guys--so in all honesty--I'd consider pulling him as the starter after the next game depending on how he does. And they should have pulled him at half for sure--regardless. Its nothing more the "old coach wives tales" about ruining guys keeping them in bad situations--but what if there is something to it? In any case as expected we made minimal adjustments. I did see 1-2 screen plays--no idea why that wasn't the staple going in. 90% of his plays need to be 1...2... throw and 1/2 the time throw before 2. For sure as a team/scheme we are NOT doing this.
I obviously have not changed my mind on coaching -I think we need a coaching change to a guy who will work with what he has vs. a top down system over everything -even if the personnel don't fit guy.
We have a bad pass protect line so no matter who we have/draft- so we need to improve and scheme around it--which I don't think we are maximizing. The Bears this year have the 28th ranked OL (PFF), Bears 22nd rated WR corp. You take away Robinson next year (who knows) and its likely bottom of the barrel. And with such a mediocre/bad WR corp you are not utilizing screens to RB, while the best QB has more just to beat the blitz. There is just too much wrong here to diagnose.
Nagy has to go and the head office has to be looking now. Fields may need to sit depending on how the next game goes--as if you are hoping on him--I'm not sure we got the scheme/training to improve him. If Fields ends up being a bust--it still doesn't change my opinion--you can still squeeze more out of anything by playing smarter.
1-The fumbles on the sacks are almost historical anomalies
2-He has a ridiculously high sack rate.
I think on the plus--he throws a nice deep ball already.
I agree with Romo and many others--I still don't feel we have stripped down the complexity of the offense for rookie training wheels. Nor are we giving him easy targets.
The run game is good--but really mid pack on yards after contact and lower than average on yards before contact. Our guys are breaking tackles is what is happening (5th in NFL and 3rd in rate). We should feature an even MORE rush heavy team--and screen plays using these RBs.
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2021/advanced.htm
Guess who's last in league in YAC? 2nd worst in YAC per catch?
Guess who is top in play action - Ravens, Cards, Chargers, Bills, Chiefs, Titans.
Bears 7th lowest rate (and 1/2 that of Ravens)
How about RPO plays for a fast QB? We run it about as much as TB, lower than average.
I just don't know what we are doing scheme wise--its' clear it isn't working well yet we don't adjust
Bears are 7th in drop rate overall.
The Pats have a 72% team catch rate, the bears 64%. Again a lot is scheme and plan.
Where the F are the passes to RBs who are actually good at breaking tackles.
And look at TB with TB12/the GOAT--their RB receptions
Fournette 27
Bernard with 19.
Bears top two
Williams 11
Herbert 7
So you are telling me that the best QB of all time needs more 2.5x RB dump offs than Fields?
(Insert Gene Wilder Willy Wonka "you don't say" meme here)
He holds on too long many times--but I think this is more fixable.
I see people questioning IQ and I think a distinction needs to be made. Justin got a 29 ACT, 3.9 GPA and did well on all cognitive tests AFAIK. He was basically all time good at some recall mental aptitude test https://bearswire.usatoday.com/2021/05/03/bears-nfl-draft-justin-fields-highest-aptitude-test-score/
What he might not have (yet) is "Blitz" IQ. My hope is we'd see something in flashes here and there. All his good plays he's had time--great--but to be a top QB you also need to read that dump off. Again I'm not putting that 100% on him--in almost any situation where he's pressured--I'm not seeing guys open really.
I think of it as Blitz chess is to chess. You need to be able to make superfast lighting decisions right away. What we don't know is if he has the Blitz IQ. (its not a perfect analogy top chess players actually play both). I think that obviously develops to an extent--the ones that are "NFL ready" have this and schemes to maximize it day one.
A lot of issues I think are fixable--but what is problematic is fumbles and sacks. Either we are not working on ball security or he has historically bad hands/bad habit the way he hold football (no idea). Same with sacks--while the line is bad and some sacks are just too fast for anyone--there is a good 1/3+ of his sacks where he needs to dump/throw it away or make a decisive move to scramble away. He's getting sacked at almost a 15% clip. I think he could cut that down to 10%--still bad but not all world bad. So if he's not doing this (he's not) is it a point of emphasis--do they have blitz / dump off drills, throwing ball away etc? When I hear the press conferences--I sure as hell hope this is sunshine blowing and Nagy doesn't really think like this. But they are not throwing screens to beat the blitz--the TB vs CHI RB passes are massive--I noticed during the game--they did this to kill any rush of ours.
And either he is hesitating on pulling up and running (I didn't watch him in college) or he is being coached specifically to not to run (which we seemingly also saw in Mitch). In any case at this point--the better move would be to run if nothing is open. I question if he's playing hurt after his knee as well-tough and overeager to start--and 22 yo.
Good news is the kid is still 22 and appears to have the work ethic and for sure he will get better in all areas--but do we even have the right guys teaching / scheming right now? And will he get good enough to be a good enough QB - he doesn't need to be Tom Brady--but a guy who can help win more than you lose. This is unknown but the better question for us is--will the bears help make him a better QB as we currently stand? That I'm not so sure of.
IMO we for sure don't have the right guys--so in all honesty--I'd consider pulling him as the starter after the next game depending on how he does. And they should have pulled him at half for sure--regardless. Its nothing more the "old coach wives tales" about ruining guys keeping them in bad situations--but what if there is something to it? In any case as expected we made minimal adjustments. I did see 1-2 screen plays--no idea why that wasn't the staple going in. 90% of his plays need to be 1...2... throw and 1/2 the time throw before 2. For sure as a team/scheme we are NOT doing this.
I obviously have not changed my mind on coaching -I think we need a coaching change to a guy who will work with what he has vs. a top down system over everything -even if the personnel don't fit guy.
We have a bad pass protect line so no matter who we have/draft- so we need to improve and scheme around it--which I don't think we are maximizing. The Bears this year have the 28th ranked OL (PFF), Bears 22nd rated WR corp. You take away Robinson next year (who knows) and its likely bottom of the barrel. And with such a mediocre/bad WR corp you are not utilizing screens to RB, while the best QB has more just to beat the blitz. There is just too much wrong here to diagnose.
Nagy has to go and the head office has to be looking now. Fields may need to sit depending on how the next game goes--as if you are hoping on him--I'm not sure we got the scheme/training to improve him. If Fields ends up being a bust--it still doesn't change my opinion--you can still squeeze more out of anything by playing smarter.
Re: Bears talk 2.0; Fields era begins for real for real
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Re: Bears talk 2.0; Fields era begins for real for real
A Rob now saying he is having difficulty hooking up with Fields because they didn’t have the reps in training camp. Oye.
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Re: Bears talk 2.0; Fields era begins for real for real
ATRAIN53 wrote:This is what rookie QB looks like.
Some of that was on him, but that is the defense I expect to win the SB he was up against.
I expect (hope, pray) that Tampa D stops Aaron Rodgers in January.
Mac Jones just faced the same Tampa defense a couple of weeks ago and went 31/40 for 275yds, 2TDs, and a pick. Not exactly amazing but a whole hell of a lot better than 22/32 for 184, 0 TDs, and three picks (and a couple of lost fumbles).
It's not a knock on Fields to say he's not ready yet, imo. I understand wanting to get him reps but committing five turnovers in a game and looking completely clueless in the process does a lot more damage to his development than it does any good. I think he's got it in him to be an average-slightly above average NFL qb but it's not going to happen if this bull is the Bears idea of developing him.
I'm not even a Bear fan and can't believe Matt Nagy still has a job. They're delaying Fields development each week he's still the HC. As a Titans fan, I went through this with Marcus Mariota. He flashed excellence early in his career but went through a line of just awful head coaches and staffs and he never fully developed into what he could've been.
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Re: Bears talk 2.0; Fields era begins for real for real
mmmmmbeeer wrote:They're delaying Fields development each week he's still the HC. As a Titans fan, I went through this with Marcus Mariota. He flashed excellence early in his career but went through a line of just awful head coaches and staffs and he never fully developed into what he could've been.
Regardless of if Fields is a boom or bust--I think a lot of Bears fans are concerned about this right now.
Re: Bears talk 2.0; Fields era begins for real for real
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Re: Bears talk 2.0; Fields era begins for real for real
mmmmmbeeer wrote:ATRAIN53 wrote:This is what rookie QB looks like.
Some of that was on him, but that is the defense I expect to win the SB he was up against.
I expect (hope, pray) that Tampa D stops Aaron Rodgers in January.
Mac Jones just faced the same Tampa defense a couple of weeks ago and went 31/40 for 275yds, 2TDs, and a pick. Not exactly amazing but a whole hell of a lot better than 22/32 for 184, 0 TDs, and three picks (and a couple of lost fumbles).
It's not a knock on Fields to say he's not ready yet, imo. I understand wanting to get him reps but committing five turnovers in a game and looking completely clueless in the process does a lot more damage to his development than it does any good. I think he's got it in him to be an average-slightly above average NFL qb but it's not going to happen if this bull is the Bears idea of developing him.
I'm not even a Bear fan and can't believe Matt Nagy still has a job. They're delaying Fields development each week he's still the HC. As a Titans fan, I went through this with Marcus Mariota. He flashed excellence early in his career but went through a line of just awful head coaches and staffs and he never fully developed into what he could've been.
Latavius Simmons was on the practice squad and took zero snaps in practice throughout the week and was called up an hour before the game because Elijah Wilkinson tested positive for COVID-19. Simmons got beat like a drum against JPP and Shaq Barrett.
Alex Bars turned out to be more capable but Simmons/Bars are the Bears 6th & 7th tackles respectively. There's really nothing a coach or a quarterback can do in that situation.
It was a bad situation, they'll look better this weekend because Wilkenson and Borom should be back and they're not facing the defending champs on the road. Justin bounced back from the Cleveland game and I fully expect him to do the same against San Fran.
Re: Bears talk 2.0; Fields era begins for real for real
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Re: Bears talk 2.0; Fields era begins for real for real
Fields won’t be able to succeed in this offense. Sage Rosenfels explains the problems
https://omny.fm/shows/wscr-0002/sage-rosenfels-vents-about-the-bears-the-waiver-wi
https://omny.fm/shows/wscr-0002/sage-rosenfels-vents-about-the-bears-the-waiver-wi
Re: Bears talk 2.0; Fields era begins for real for real
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Re: Bears talk 2.0; Fields era begins for real for real
I don't want this to be the Justin Fields Defense Force Post but I have some time today and I guess this is better than yelling at kids to stay off the lawn....
More an indictment of bad scheme and how system can help make or break a guy.
Looking into this I lean more and more into poor game plan for the rook. Yes he's a limited rookie--but so are Mac Jones and Trevor Lawrence. The difference is what they are calling. The consensus is Jones is most NFL ready and is an accurate short pass guy--and the numbers bear this out. They put him in a good situation to maximize his abilities--not have him air it out deep. Lawrence IDK what they are doing--but they are not winning so no idea if he can rise above this or not--time will tell and not our problem.
Now I'm not putting 100% faith in the data but over enough plays its probably "good enough" to show what we are doing vs. other teams.
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/chi/2021_advanced.htm
For advanced passing note the Air Yards, Accuracy, Pressure and Play Type tabs.
For Justin just look at the Intended Air Yards per attempt -IAY/PA 8.9
Compare to Jones 7.6 and Lawrence 8.7
On a team level that 1.3 yards is top quartile vs. 3rd quartile about. So they got Lawrence airing it out as well--again a losing team so not sure its working for them either.
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/nwe/2021_advanced.htm
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/jax/2021_advanced.htm
What we see is Fields and Lawrence struggling with high bad decision rates 23% where Jones is 13% (who is for sure most NFL ready).
Mitch was 18-19% for reference.
Never fear Josh Allen went from 25% as a rook to 16/15% last /this year--these are not way out of normal rates.
Foles went from 10% in PHI (2018) to 11.6% JAX - to 16% in CHI.
Jones is the most accurate in 81% on target, Fields 74% and Lawrence 69% -seems about right.
Brady is around 73% past 3 years. Not exact but its all within the realm of "NFL level" accuracy.
Drop % Fields 6.3, Jones 3.3 and Lawrence 3.8%
Some of this is likely due to Fields not having a real repoire with Allen (who is our best WR). But obviously running deeper routes are harder to catch % wise vs screen/dump offs. Mostly the WR corps is just below average
Looking at the pressure stats--this is where I get nervous about Fields--it matches the obvious eye test.
They are all pressured about the same--Fields the most 26% and 20% Lawrence and 21% Jones. Pocket time is similar.
Sack rates: Fields 14.4% , Jones 5.4% Lawrence 4.4%
David Carr holds the rookie record at 17.7% but 2002 is long ago enough that I'm not sure its a comp.
Basically this needs to improve massively or he's in rare territory and not in a good way.
Avoiding sacks obviously has to be priority 1,2 and 3. Now I don't know everything but I do know--you don't do that by having more deep routes. You don't do that by running less play action and RPO, you don't do that by throwing to RBs less. It seems like they are simply hoping a good run game will ease the blitz but it clearly is not the case. And basically they went from a total dink dunk with Dalton to doubling the intended air yard attempts with Fields. They really need to mix it up.
As for the fumbles at first I was very worried but I think the sacks are simply driving this stat as well.
fumbles per sack
Fields 6/22 27%
Jones 3/14 21.4%
Lawrence 3/10 30%
OK this makes me feel a bit better.
Allen 3/8 37.5%
Brady 2/9 22%
Mahomes 4/14 28.5%
OK so again--all within the realm of normal--whew! But the sacks gotta stop.
So the sacks likely are the driver--its noisy data but not as bad as I imagined (on fumbles).
So really -quicker hitting routes, scramble and or throw ball away out of bounds, it's not a free play if you don't see a flag.
Yes throw deep routes but obviously don't live or die by it--especially if you are having sack issues.
Some of this is obviously Fields wanting to get the big plays. (which is why his INTs don't hurt that much, vs an INT on a 5 yard dump off). But that is what the coach and scheme are for.
Now for some totally inappropriate era comparisons to feed the homer in you that wants greatness. It is I feel a great idea of how system / coach/ team around can be part of ruining a guy or make him a legend.
QB 1 Age 24 Comp% 52.2 Int% 5.8 Quarterback rate 56.9 Sack% 13.2 ANY/A 3.0 (adjusted net yards per attempt)
QB 2 Age 22 Comp% 57.3 Int% 4.6 Quarterback rate 61.8 Sack% 14.4 ANY/A 2.66 (adjusted net yards per attempt)
More an indictment of bad scheme and how system can help make or break a guy.
Looking into this I lean more and more into poor game plan for the rook. Yes he's a limited rookie--but so are Mac Jones and Trevor Lawrence. The difference is what they are calling. The consensus is Jones is most NFL ready and is an accurate short pass guy--and the numbers bear this out. They put him in a good situation to maximize his abilities--not have him air it out deep. Lawrence IDK what they are doing--but they are not winning so no idea if he can rise above this or not--time will tell and not our problem.
Now I'm not putting 100% faith in the data but over enough plays its probably "good enough" to show what we are doing vs. other teams.
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/chi/2021_advanced.htm
For advanced passing note the Air Yards, Accuracy, Pressure and Play Type tabs.
For Justin just look at the Intended Air Yards per attempt -IAY/PA 8.9
Compare to Jones 7.6 and Lawrence 8.7
On a team level that 1.3 yards is top quartile vs. 3rd quartile about. So they got Lawrence airing it out as well--again a losing team so not sure its working for them either.
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/nwe/2021_advanced.htm
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/jax/2021_advanced.htm
What we see is Fields and Lawrence struggling with high bad decision rates 23% where Jones is 13% (who is for sure most NFL ready).
Mitch was 18-19% for reference.
Never fear Josh Allen went from 25% as a rook to 16/15% last /this year--these are not way out of normal rates.
Foles went from 10% in PHI (2018) to 11.6% JAX - to 16% in CHI.
Jones is the most accurate in 81% on target, Fields 74% and Lawrence 69% -seems about right.
Brady is around 73% past 3 years. Not exact but its all within the realm of "NFL level" accuracy.
Drop % Fields 6.3, Jones 3.3 and Lawrence 3.8%
Some of this is likely due to Fields not having a real repoire with Allen (who is our best WR). But obviously running deeper routes are harder to catch % wise vs screen/dump offs. Mostly the WR corps is just below average
Looking at the pressure stats--this is where I get nervous about Fields--it matches the obvious eye test.
They are all pressured about the same--Fields the most 26% and 20% Lawrence and 21% Jones. Pocket time is similar.
Sack rates: Fields 14.4% , Jones 5.4% Lawrence 4.4%
David Carr holds the rookie record at 17.7% but 2002 is long ago enough that I'm not sure its a comp.
Basically this needs to improve massively or he's in rare territory and not in a good way.
Avoiding sacks obviously has to be priority 1,2 and 3. Now I don't know everything but I do know--you don't do that by having more deep routes. You don't do that by running less play action and RPO, you don't do that by throwing to RBs less. It seems like they are simply hoping a good run game will ease the blitz but it clearly is not the case. And basically they went from a total dink dunk with Dalton to doubling the intended air yard attempts with Fields. They really need to mix it up.
As for the fumbles at first I was very worried but I think the sacks are simply driving this stat as well.
fumbles per sack
Fields 6/22 27%
Jones 3/14 21.4%
Lawrence 3/10 30%
OK this makes me feel a bit better.
Allen 3/8 37.5%
Brady 2/9 22%
Mahomes 4/14 28.5%
OK so again--all within the realm of normal--whew! But the sacks gotta stop.
So the sacks likely are the driver--its noisy data but not as bad as I imagined (on fumbles).
So really -quicker hitting routes, scramble and or throw ball away out of bounds, it's not a free play if you don't see a flag.
Yes throw deep routes but obviously don't live or die by it--especially if you are having sack issues.
Some of this is obviously Fields wanting to get the big plays. (which is why his INTs don't hurt that much, vs an INT on a 5 yard dump off). But that is what the coach and scheme are for.
Now for some totally inappropriate era comparisons to feed the homer in you that wants greatness. It is I feel a great idea of how system / coach/ team around can be part of ruining a guy or make him a legend.
QB 1 Age 24 Comp% 52.2 Int% 5.8 Quarterback rate 56.9 Sack% 13.2 ANY/A 3.0 (adjusted net yards per attempt)
QB 2 Age 22 Comp% 57.3 Int% 4.6 Quarterback rate 61.8 Sack% 14.4 ANY/A 2.66 (adjusted net yards per attempt)
Spoiler:
Re: Bears talk 2.0; Fields era begins for real for real
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Re: Bears talk 2.0; Fields era begins for real for real
Susan wrote:
Alex Bars turned out to be more capable but Simmons/Bars are the Bears 6th & 7th tackles respectively. There's really nothing a coach or a quarterback can do in that situation.
It was a bad situation, they'll look better this weekend because Wilkenson and Borom should be back and they're not facing the defending champs on the road. Justin bounced back from the Cleveland game and I fully expect him to do the same against San Fran.
Susan-who do you want/think we should get for HC off season?
Re: Bears talk 2.0; Fields era begins for real for real
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Re: Bears talk 2.0; Fields era begins for real for real
micromonkey wrote:Susan wrote:
Alex Bars turned out to be more capable but Simmons/Bars are the Bears 6th & 7th tackles respectively. There's really nothing a coach or a quarterback can do in that situation.
It was a bad situation, they'll look better this weekend because Wilkenson and Borom should be back and they're not facing the defending champs on the road. Justin bounced back from the Cleveland game and I fully expect him to do the same against San Fran.
Susan-who do you want/think we should get for HC off season?
Kyle Shannahan (to partly troll our SF friends) but if he gets canned, he's first. Great playcaller, burned by injury but also stupid personnel moves at QB, would be worried that they passed on JF1 for Lance
Joe Brady - Saints ties and I posted an article that Burrow chose LSU because of it's similarities with OSU offense and they freaking developed three of the NFLs biggest stars there and he is widely known as a young genius, might not be a great leader from what I've read on Twitter
Greg Roman - I love the Ravens/Lamar and think he'd absolutely know how to take advantage of Justin's physical gifts. I'm a full believer in Justin/Montgomery/Herbert and that dude would have them firing on all cylinders (as would Shanny)
Nagy with a better OC - If they make it to the playoffs again, it'll be really hard to justify firing him. You run the risk of hiring a new coach/GM that wants to bring their guys in. We tear it all down and we're still left with Georgie and Ted hiring and I have zero faith in those guys.
Re: Bears talk 2.0; Fields era begins for real for real
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Re: Bears talk 2.0; Fields era begins for real for real
Susan wrote:micromonkey wrote:Susan wrote:
Alex Bars turned out to be more capable but Simmons/Bars are the Bears 6th & 7th tackles respectively. There's really nothing a coach or a quarterback can do in that situation.
It was a bad situation, they'll look better this weekend because Wilkenson and Borom should be back and they're not facing the defending champs on the road. Justin bounced back from the Cleveland game and I fully expect him to do the same against San Fran.
Susan-who do you want/think we should get for HC off season?
Kyle Shannahan (to partly troll our SF friends) but if he gets canned, he's first. Great playcaller, burned by injury but also stupid personnel moves at QB, would be worried that they passed on JF1 for Lance
Joe Brady - Saints ties and I posted an article that Burrow chose LSU because of it's similarities with OSU offense and they freaking developed three of the NFLs biggest stars there and he is widely known as a young genius, might not be a great leader from what I've read on Twitter
Greg Roman - I love the Ravens/Lamar and think he'd absolutely know how to take advantage of Justin's physical gifts. I'm a full believer in Justin/Montgomery/Herbert and that dude would have them firing on all cylinders (as would Shanny)
Nagy with a better OC - If they make it to the playoffs again, it'll be really hard to justify firing him. You run the risk of hiring a new coach/GM that wants to bring their guys in. We tear it all down and we're still left with Georgie and Ted hiring and I have zero faith in those guys.

As for Fields vs Lance, I liked both of them in the draft. I was holding my breath that we wouldn't take Mac Jones.
I think Lance is going to be great in due time.
Scottie Pippen's response to whom he would pick for his running mate, Michael or LeBron: "That's a dumbass question. I've never done anything with LeBron. I wouldn't take LeBron to the movies."
Re: Bears talk 2.0; Fields era begins for real for real
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Re: Bears talk 2.0; Fields era begins for real for real
Shill wrote:Susan wrote:micromonkey wrote:
Susan-who do you want/think we should get for HC off season?
Kyle Shannahan (to partly troll our SF friends) but if he gets canned, he's first. Great playcaller, burned by injury but also stupid personnel moves at QB, would be worried that they passed on JF1 for Lance
Joe Brady - Saints ties and I posted an article that Burrow chose LSU because of it's similarities with OSU offense and they freaking developed three of the NFLs biggest stars there and he is widely known as a young genius, might not be a great leader from what I've read on Twitter
Greg Roman - I love the Ravens/Lamar and think he'd absolutely know how to take advantage of Justin's physical gifts. I'm a full believer in Justin/Montgomery/Herbert and that dude would have them firing on all cylinders (as would Shanny)
Nagy with a better OC - If they make it to the playoffs again, it'll be really hard to justify firing him. You run the risk of hiring a new coach/GM that wants to bring their guys in. We tear it all down and we're still left with Georgie and Ted hiring and I have zero faith in those guys.
A significant portion of our fan base want him gone. I disagree completely with that sentiment, but fans turn quickly during losing streaks.
As for Fields vs Lance, I liked both of them in the draft. I was holding my breath that we wouldn't take Mac Jones.
I think Lance is going to be great in due time.
It's clearly going to take a minute with Lance - everybody knows this but Shanny loves Kirk (who is a joke in the division) and SF passed on Watson/Mahomes just like we did.
I think Nagy actually knows how to spot em better than Kyle but Kyle clearly knows how to get more out of his QBs. I dunno what the dynamic is there between Kyle and Lynch but man, if that bottomed out it would be something we'd have to pounce at. It's such a difficult situation because like us, you guys gambled and gave up so much for Lance that changing regimes is such a hard thing to pull the trigger on because you're looking at somebody else's pick at QB and an all out draft capital deficiency that it's going to be hard to find the right guy who's going to go in on that QB/that situation.
You get the wrong guy who sours on the young QB quickly and you're looking at a really painful rebuild. .
Y'all got a rough schedule - this is a must win for both teams but having both Arizona and the Rams back to back just sucks.
Re: Bears talk 2.0; Fields era begins for real for real
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Re: Bears talk 2.0; Fields era begins for real for real
young genius
this fanbase cannot take any more of them. If a McCaskey hires him, it is the wrong hire by definition. The family has no feel for this process, and there’s too much to lose with a valuable asset already in place that in essence has cost countless draft picks to this point. I vote for somebody with a proven record.
Re: Bears talk 2.0; Fields era begins for real for real
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Re: Bears talk 2.0; Fields era begins for real for real
Susan wrote:Kyle Shannahan (to partly troll our SF friends) but if he gets canned, he's first. Great playcaller, burned by injury but also stupid personnel moves at QB, would be worried that they passed on JF1 for Lance
Joe Brady - Saints ties and I posted an article that Burrow chose LSU because of it's similarities with OSU offense and they freaking developed three of the NFLs biggest stars there and he is widely known as a young genius, might not be a great leader from what I've read on Twitter
Greg Roman - I love the Ravens/Lamar and think he'd absolutely know how to take advantage of Justin's physical gifts. I'm a full believer in Justin/Montgomery/Herbert and that dude would have them firing on all cylinders (as would Shanny)
Nagy with a better OC - If they make it to the playoffs again, it'll be really hard to justify firing him. You run the risk of hiring a new coach/GM that wants to bring their guys in. We tear it all down and we're still left with Georgie and Ted hiring and I have zero faith in those guys.
Nice--I knew you would have good names.
Roman I like and is a great example of a guy to fit the system to the people, Brady is one I hadn't thought of but sounds like a great idea.
Of course Kyle - yeah "if".
Nagy I think--forget the offense--I am not sure he's a CEO type coach-which is what I want. I mean yes guys will always have fingers in all the pies--especially their specialty. But CEO types build the environment of preparedness and planning--that I feel is lacking.
I don't think Nagy is a bad person--and its possible if confined to OC he'd be good. Think of Rod Marinelli--horrible HC and brilliant DC for years after his HC failure. Not sure Nagy is that good--but it's possible within a system he can have value.
I may be the lone Jim Harbaugh guy. Jim may be an ass but outside Kyle has the resume. I am unaware of details/speculation of what went on in SF but near a .700 coaching record in the NFL means he knows how to do something right... I mean if you can't beat Ohio State (Fields) then join him?

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Shanahan did take them to a SuperBowl in his 2nd or 3rd year here. But not the team has not been able to repeat that success, and so it must be the coach. His schemes seem very good- receivers are open a lot, and they have been one of the best running teams for a few years now. But like CHI, they have been plagued by poor QB play, and now the controversy about whether to stick with a limited game manager v. a young dynamic rookie who isn't very good yet has really divided the fan base.
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Re: Bears talk 2.0; Fields era begins for real for real
micromonkey wrote:Susan wrote:Kyle Shannahan (to partly troll our SF friends) but if he gets canned, he's first. Great playcaller, burned by injury but also stupid personnel moves at QB, would be worried that they passed on JF1 for Lance
Joe Brady - Saints ties and I posted an article that Burrow chose LSU because of it's similarities with OSU offense and they freaking developed three of the NFLs biggest stars there and he is widely known as a young genius, might not be a great leader from what I've read on Twitter
Greg Roman - I love the Ravens/Lamar and think he'd absolutely know how to take advantage of Justin's physical gifts. I'm a full believer in Justin/Montgomery/Herbert and that dude would have them firing on all cylinders (as would Shanny)
Nagy with a better OC - If they make it to the playoffs again, it'll be really hard to justify firing him. You run the risk of hiring a new coach/GM that wants to bring their guys in. We tear it all down and we're still left with Georgie and Ted hiring and I have zero faith in those guys.
Nice--I knew you would have good names.
Roman I like and is a great example of a guy to fit the system to the people, Brady is one I hadn't thought of but sounds like a great idea.
Of course Kyle - yeah "if".
Nagy I think--forget the offense--I am not sure he's a CEO type coach-which is what I want. I mean yes guys will always have fingers in all the pies--especially their specialty. But CEO types build the environment of preparedness and planning--that I feel is lacking.
I don't think Nagy is a bad person--and its possible if confined to OC he'd be good. Think of Rod Marinelli--horrible HC and brilliant DC for years after his HC failure. Not sure Nagy is that good--but it's possible within a system he can have value.
I may be the lone Jim Harbaugh guy. Jim may be an ass but outside Kyle has the resume. I am unaware of details/speculation of what went on in SF but near a .700 coaching record in the NFL means he knows how to do something right... I mean if you can't beat Ohio State (Fields) then join him?
I know Harbaugh had major issues with Trent Baalke who then went on to hire a complete moron after he hired Jim Tomsula - Jim's struggled at Michigan but that's a different world. He had (and hired himself) both Fangio and Greg Roman and I loved the way those SF teams played and he made a ballsy decision to bench Alex Smith in favor of Kaep which was huge for them at the time. He's a big personality but if he could get along with Pace and bring in excellent coordinators, I'd be 100% down with it.
It really just depends on what role you want your HC to have, as a CEO you need to do the following:
-Hire excellent Coordinators/Position coaches and manage them
-Manage the lockeroom
-Work together with your coordinators and GM to get and develop talent through the draft and free agency
I'm in agreement with you that Nagy is limited in the CEO capacity because he's too tied to this Philly/KC scheme that seems to have rotted out across the league. He's never going to stray from it just like Lovie wasn't going to give up on the Tampa 2. By the time Lovie's tenure ended, the Tampa 2 was extinct more or less.
For all of Nagy's talk about Alex Smith, it was under Harbaugh's watch that Smith matured and became a winning QB.
I know he's polarizing but for where we're at, what he's done and his history with this franchise, I'd be 100% down with Captain Comeback coming back here.