I posted my case for the 1999 Bulls a few weeks ago on the General Board, but given the direction of this thread I think it's worth posting here too.
HomoSapien wrote:I realize this has been discussed to death in several threads, but as a die hard Bulls fan who lived, breathed, and ate everything that was related to the 98 Bulls, I felt like offering my perspective on why I think the 1999 Chicago Bulls would have won their 4th straight championship against the Spurs. This is a long post, so thanks in advance if you take the time to read it.
There’s a lot of misconceptions about the 98 Bulls, primarily that they were running on fumes and on their last legs. This notion primarily exists for two reasons. 1): The Bulls got off to a poor start during the 98 season and looked vulnerable early on. 2): The Bulls had a tough playoff series against the Pacers and Jazz.
Myth 1: The Bulls Were On Their Last Legs
While the Bulls may have gotten off to a slow start, they still tied with Utah for the best record in the entire league. This is a pretty remarkable feat considering they were hammered with injuries during the season. Scottie Pippen famously missed 38 games, but Luc Longley also missed 24 games and Steve Kerr in a freak accident missed 32 games as well (Derrick Coleman fell on him and broke his collar bone). These injuries contributed to their lackluster start, however, when Pippen returned they were nothing short of dominant. The Bulls were 36-8 with Scottie Pippen and a staggering 25-2 after the All-Star break. Teams that are running fumes, just don’t go on runs like that. What’s further impressive about this run, is that Scottie Pippen was more or less his usual steady-all-around self without an off-season to prepare. The Bulls were dominating teams without their second-best player in his best form. In other words, the Chicago Bulls were still winning 82% of their games when relatively healthy. Assuming they could play at that level during the 1999 season, they would have won 41 games during the lockout season, which would have resulted in the best record in the league and home-court advantage throughout the playoffs (Note: The Bulls only lost two games at home during the 98 playoffs, by an average of two points).
That begs the question, could the 1999 Bulls have stayed healthy? The key to this question, in my opinion, is Scottie Pippen. While Pippen never fit in with Houston, his health had fully returned. He didn’t miss a single game for the next two seasons and played an impressive 40.2 minutes per game (6th in the league) for the Houston Rockets. Despite not being utilized properly on offense, Pippen still made the All-Defensive First team that year while posting 6.5 rebounds, 5.9 apg, and 2.0 spg. Talk of Pippen’s decline that year has always been greatly exaggerated. Toni Kukoc remained healthy in 1999 and posted great numbers on a depleted Bulls team (19ppg, 7rpg, 5apg). Steve Kerr only missed 6 games for the Spurs and Luc Longley played 78% of his games that year, compared to 70% in 98. Dennis Rodman played 80 games in 98 and proved that he was still a rebounding force in his short stints with the Lakers and Mavericks. The biggest question remaining is Jordan and the cigar cutting injury to his finger. None of us truly know the extent of that injury and when he would have actually returned, but we do know that a 39-year-old rusty Jordan was able to average 25, 5, and 5 before he tore his meniscus, so it seems fair to assume that a 36-year-old Jordan would fare even better.
Myth 2: The Bulls Were Shaky In The 98 Playoffs
To me, this is one of the bigger misconceptions. The Bulls were 15-6 in the playoffs. Four of their losses came on the road, three came from one team, and they lost by an average of 2.3 ppg (including one loss to a Reggie Miller game-winning three and a OT loss to Utah). In their 15 wins, the Bulls won by an average of 10.7 ppg. In other words, when the Bulls lost they barely lost and when they won they typically convincingly won. When people say the Bulls were running on fumes, they’re unfairly minimizing how good that Indiana Pacers team was. The playoffs aren’t supposed to be easy and the Pacers were two deep at every single position. Every rotation player, besides Dale Davis could create offense (and Dale Davis, to his credit, was great at getting in position for lobs and putbacks). Reggie Miller was one of the best playoff performers of all-time. Mark Jackson is an underrated floor general. Mullins was a top 50 player who at that age still knew how to make an impact. Smits was an incredibly skilled big man with an inside-outside game. The Davis boys were dependable and physically exhausting players with their strength and toughness. Rose, Best, Mckey, and Perkins all provided depth, veteran savvy, and a variety of skillsets. This team was just stacked and there’s no shame being pushed to the limits by them. The Jazz, who I have tremendous respect for, did not push the Bulls to the same limits. Chicago took care of them in 6 games, including a 42-point blowout in the NBA Finals! Utah was also unable to beat the Bulls in game six, despite Pippen being rendered almost useless because of a back injury. The idea that the Jazz nearly beat the Bulls has always been exaggerated.
Myth 3: The Bulls Couldn't Beat The Spurs
In 1998, the Bulls beat a Robinson/Duncan team in both of their matchups. In the first game, they beat them without Scottie Pippen. In the second game, they beat them by 10 without Luc Longley. Toni Kukoc was defended by Duncan and arguably won the individual matchup (Kukoc had 21 and 6. Duncan, who was defended primarily by Rodman, had 14 and 12, and 5 turnovers). What the Bulls discovered that game was that Kukoc’s ability to spread the floor took Duncan out of the paint and weakened the Spurs' interior defense. This allowed Jordan to comfortably post up, and he shot 55% that game.
Now let’s look at how the Bulls fared against the Spurs from 94-96 (Note: I’m using this span because it includes most of the 2nd three-peat Bulls players. I’m also not including the season where the Spurs were injured and tanked).
1994-95
- Bulls beat Spurs 94-92. Key notes: Jordan is still retired during this game and Luc Longley didn’t play. Spurs obviously don’t have Duncan, but they do have Rodman.
- Spurs beat Bulls 104-102 in OT. Key notes: Pippen was ejected after 13 minutes, Jordan was still retired, Jud Bucheler played 38 minutes.
1995-96
- Bulls beat Spurs 103-94. Key notes: This victory came without Dennis Rodman.
- Bulls beat Spurs 106-87. Key notes: This is the only matchup during the second-three peat that the Bulls were at full-strength.
One other point, Phil Jackson would face the Spurs in the playoffs regularly. In 2001 he beat them in the WCF 4-1. In 2002 he beat them in the WC Semi-finals 4-3. He lost to them in the semifinals (2-4) in 2003, but then beat them again in 2004 (4-2).
Does any of this mean that the Bulls would definitively beat the San Antonio Spurs? Obviously not. But it does suggest two things. 1.) There’s no evidence that the Bulls were overwhelmed by the Spurs’ size. 2.) Phil Jackson and the Triangle Offense has a track record of being able to beat Pops and the Spurs in the playoffs.
As far as matchups go, most seem to focus on how big of a mismatch Robinson and Duncan vs Longley and Rodman is, but I think people are overlooking the bigger mismatch of Jordan and Pippen against Elie and Elliot. Their wings were pretty unathletic and they couldn’t run with the Bulls. This Spurs team was very good, but they’ve been romanticized quite a bit. It’s important to remember that this wasn’t the Manu, Parker, Duncan Spurs. The reason so many fans are upset the Bulls were dismantled in 1999 is in part because that Spurs team was never seen as unbeatable. They had very clear limitations. David Robinson had declined considerably. His back injuries had robbed him of a lot of his athleticism and mobility and he was only averaging 15.8 ppg that season. It’s hard for me to imagine him dominating the Bulls offensively, because he was no longer being used that way by the Spurs. For what it’s worth, he only scored more than 16 points once against the Knicks in the Finals. Their third-leading scorer was Sean Elliot, who was coming off a kidney transplant and had clearly lost a few steps (his TS%, PER, 3pt%, scoring had all taken significant dips). Furthermore, at 11.4 points per game he was a pretty weak third option. By comparison, Luc Longley averaged 11.4 ppg for the 98 Bulls as their 4th option. It’s also worth mentioning that Dennis Rodman, who hated the Spurs, may have come in extra-motivated to play well in this matchup.
The Bulls bench would absolutely destroy the Spurs, who had no depth. The Bulls 6th man was Toni Kukoc, a guy who arguably belongs in the Basketball Hall of Fame. The Spurs 6th man was Jaren Jackson who averaged 6 points a game. Malik Rose and Antonio Daniels had not established themselves as true rotation players yet, and their bench would be even weaker without Steve Kerr on their roster. Much is made about the Bulls age, but the Spurs outside of Duncan were an old team. Robinson was 33, Elliot was 30, Johnson was 33, Elie was 35, Jackson was 31, Perdue was 33, Kersey was 36. And again, Rose and Daniels weren’t key rotation players yet.
The Bulls were masters at exploiting mismatches, and Avery Johnson would have been eaten alive by the tall, long-armed Bulls. Scottie Pippen would be giving him the Mark Jackson full-court press treatment (He called this smothering defense "cutting the head off the snake"), while Ron Harper would defend Sean Elliot, the Bulls would preserve Jordan’s energy by matching him up against Mario Elie (Note: Jordan averaged 42.5 points per game against the Rockets in 98, with Elie guarding him quite a bit those games). Avery Johnson, could not shoot the three so Pippen would smother him up and down the court and then sag off him in the half-court so that he could double team Duncan or Robinson in the post. His ability to rotate back to Johnson off the double team would likely be even more successful than this strategy was against Mark Jackson and the Pacers. On top of that, with Avery Johnson at 5’10", you have to assume they would get a few easy post-ups for the 6-6 Ron Harper. The Bulls disrespected Johnson so much on defense that they even used to post up BJ Armstrong against him back in the day as well.
The thing about the Bulls that gets forgotten is that you never really felt like Michael Jordan could lose once he got to the top. It’s one thing beating Latrell Sprewell and Allan Houston, but the mental edge the Bulls have over the Spurs during their first finals appearance cannot be overlooked. Regardless, it’s a damn shame we never got to see this matchup.