Bears thread 13

[Stratmaster]

n I started this line of thought, I WANT
Poise, elusivness, ball placement and clutch ability are all things that we've seen at times. It's the consistency of these things that we're missing. And I get how infuriating that can be. But I believe that a significant part of that is just his development curve.

If it's one thing that we're seeing pretty frequently (especially over the last decade or so) is players being evaluated based on tags they were given as prospects rather than just letting these guys bake. I believe either Drew Brees or Matt Ryan recently eluded to this. Guys that are dubbed as 'generational' are expected to be top 5 QBs within 2 years and if they aren't, they are either divas, headcases or have poor work ethics even though none of those things my apply. They could just be a coming into th league being a few years away from being polished products.

I will give you elusive. And I do not believe Caleb is a diva, a headcase or has poor work ethics. So you found 2 things for me.

Poise and ball placement? We aren't seeing the same things there.

It's like i said, these are things that I've seen albeit not consistently. Take ball placement for example. There have been times where he's been on the money and other times where it hasn't been there. Poise? Well, i think we saw that on his connection with DJ at the end of the.game. No, the throw wasn't on the money. But he did hang in the pocket, took the hit and threw a ball that DJ could catch. But again, we aren't seeing that consistently. So for me, my questions.around Caleb aren't around what he can't do as much as, can he get to a place of consistency.

I don't want to harp on this too much. Like I said when I started this line of thought; I WANT, very badly, for Caleb to be that guy. But to me, what you are describing isn't a lack of consistency. A lack of consistency is "he usually does this thing right, but occasionally he doesn't. He needs to be more consistent". What I am seeing is "he doesn't usually do this thing right, but occasionally he does. He needs to be better at doing this thing".

[Stratmaster]

He's got a rocket arm, and can make a 20 yard sideline throw look easy. When he's on, he's zipping the ball on a rope and putting it right where it needs to be. The problem is consistency.

Bobby Douglas had a rocket arm.

Caleb hit a couple sideline passes and now it's a thing of lore. Did you see him trying to make them the last 2 games? He rarely puts the ball right where it is supposed to be. I'm sorry but even in his good games he rarely hits a receiver in stride.

It isn't consistency. It's accuracy.

You're being very cynical. You asked what he does well. I replied- he has a strong arm, and at times, he makes really nice throws. If you want to quibble with that, fine, but those are things he can do well.

A strong arm is not "doing something well". At times he makes some really nice throws is not "doing something well". A strong arm is a physical attribute. You can have a strong arm and never play football. As far as "at times he makes some really good throws". No ****. He is an NFL QB for goodness sake. Obviously we are talking relative to NFL quarterback play. And I'm not even holding him to the #1 pick standard. 2nd string QB's on mediocre teams are more accurate and are outperforming him.

[Stratmaster]

This national TE stuff is crap. All these national whatever days are dumb, sorry if I hurt your feelings.

You should really save these complaints for April 15th, which is National Griper’s Day.

[dougthonus]

I don't want to harp on this too much. Like I said when I started this line of thought; I WANT, very badly, for Caleb to be that guy. But to me, what you are describing isn't a lack of consistency. A lack of consistency is "he usually does this thing right, but occasionally he doesn't. He needs to be more consistent". What I am seeing is "he doesn't usually do this thing right, but occasionally he does. He needs to be better at doing this thing".

Still relatively early, but Caleb doesn't look like he's got elite QB stuff. I'm hopeful he can get to Baker Mayfield type QB stuff at this point.

[cocktailswith_2short]

This national TE stuff is crap. All these national whatever days are dumb, sorry if I hurt your feelings.

don't be salty you guys didn't get the beast Tyler warren .

[IliketheBullsNBearstoo]

This national TE stuff is crap. All these national whatever days are dumb, sorry if I hurt your feelings.

don't be salty you guys didn't get the beast Tyler warren .

I am a bit salty about that. But I'm not so sure he would be such a beast with us. Would be nice to have that TE connection here.

[MissileMike]

It's all Lovie's fault.

[patryk7754]

My fear is that Williams turns out to be another Zach Wilson. While Williams is certainly more talented, a lot of the things that people fawned over for Caleb, were the same for Wilson. Ridiculous comparisons to Mahomes and rodgers and unrealistic expectations are the result of horrible scouting. And a possible consequence of that is Williams so much pressure that he can’t even be average. Yes, it’s not even halfway through his second and he needs patience, but most of mine was spent after firing lovie

He's more in the Trevor Lawrence/ Kyler Murray tier.

Not a bust (Wilson, Trubisky, Fields) but a disappointment.

Still early but that's what I'm seeing.

It’s not that I think he’ll be a bust to that level. I think Williams floor is much, much higher than Wilson ever had. I meant to point out the similarities in the pre draft hype which led to unreasonable expectations. I hated the comparisons to mahomes for Williams because it was clear he was never that. People were calling him the greatest QB prospect of all and it was clear he was never that. The comparison I always made was to Kyler. The problem with those over hyped comparisons is now people who expected him to be the messiah will prematurely crucify him. And then we will find ourself in the beginning of the cycle again.

I still have a lot of hope for Williams. Like everyone can see, his biggest issues are doing the easy things easily. One can only assume that he’ll get that down with experience. A year and a half just isn’t very much time and maybe it’s unfair to run out of patience so early but it extends past him.

He actually reminds me a lot of Mayfield with the browns. Williams almost a carbon copy of that version of baker with his play style and shortcomings. The major difference is that we have a coach that won’t hang him out to dry. And if Willam’s turns into the current version of baker, we will be in a great place

[patryk7754]

I don't want to harp on this too much. Like I said when I started this line of thought; I WANT, very badly, for Caleb to be that guy. But to me, what you are describing isn't a lack of consistency. A lack of consistency is "he usually does this thing right, but occasionally he doesn't. He needs to be more consistent". What I am seeing is "he doesn't usually do this thing right, but occasionally he does. He needs to be better at doing this thing".

Still relatively early, but Caleb doesn't look like he's got elite QB stuff. I'm hopeful he can get to Baker Mayfield type QB stuff at this point.

I think Baker is a perfect comparison for Williams. As a player and his current struggles. The browns version of mayfield was wildly inconsistent and inaccurate but still made a lot of really good plays from time to time. Baker was also seen as a diva. They even have similar builds. Biggest difference is that the bears don’t have the same level of chaos as the browns and we don’t have a coach ready to get rid of Williams

[Dresden]

Bobby Douglas had a rocket arm.

Caleb hit a couple sideline passes and now it's a thing of lore. Did you see him trying to make them the last 2 games? He rarely puts the ball right where it is supposed to be. I'm sorry but even in his good games he rarely hits a receiver in stride.

It isn't consistency. It's accuracy.

You're being very cynical. You asked what he does well. I replied- he has a strong arm, and at times, he makes really nice throws. If you want to quibble with that, fine, but those are things he can do well.

A strong arm is not "doing something well". At times he makes some really nice throws is not "doing something well". A strong arm is a physical attribute. You can have a strong arm and never play football. As far as "at times he makes some really good throws". No ****. He is an NFL QB for goodness sake. Obviously we are talking relative to NFL quarterback play. And I'm not even holding him to the #1 pick standard. 2nd string QB's on mediocre teams are more accurate and are outperforming him.

Not all NFL QB's have strong arms. Brock Purdy doesn't, and there are others. So yes, being able to throw the ball with velocity is something he does well. I don't know if they have a stat for it, but I would bet he is in the top 1/3 of QB's in terms of completing passes over 15 yards. that's something we rarely saw from Fields, or other recent CHI Qb's.

[patryk7754]

Looking at the rest of our schedule, I think the next 4 games are all winnable- CIN, NYG, MIN, and PIT. We could be 8-3 before we play PHI and GB. After that, the only winnable games look like CLE and SF. So absolute best case would be 10 wins and a possible playoff spot.

On the low side, I'd say 2-3 wins more would be the minimum we should win, which would leave us with 6-7 wins.

That’s how I’ve been seeing it for a few weeks now. I was hoping we could take advantage of a bad defense and no Lamar cs the ravens and get an extra win.

The bengals game is a little less winnable to me now that they have Flacco. And I think it’s fair to question if this offense (mostly the passing game) can take advantage of how terrible the bengals defense is. We did against the cowboys so I think we have a pretty good chance. But yea, we have to come out perfect the next handful of games if we want to have a chance at the playoffs. I’d also add the Vikings to the list of winnable games

[Dresden]

I don't want to harp on this too much. Like I said when I started this line of thought; I WANT, very badly, for Caleb to be that guy. But to me, what you are describing isn't a lack of consistency. A lack of consistency is "he usually does this thing right, but occasionally he doesn't. He needs to be more consistent". What I am seeing is "he doesn't usually do this thing right, but occasionally he does. He needs to be better at doing this thing".

Still relatively early, but Caleb doesn't look like he's got elite QB stuff. I'm hopeful he can get to Baker Mayfield type QB stuff at this point.

I think he definitely has some elite traits, like what they refer to as "arm talent", but he seems to be missing what is probably the most important attribute a QB can have, which is the mental side of it- knowing how to read defenses, knowing where to throw the ball, decision making, etc. I haven't seen much of those things from him, which is worrisome and disappointing.

Our second stringer is exact opposite- he seems to have all the know how of playing the position, but lacking an elite arm. I still hope we get to see him start a game or two this year, just so we can see if that makes a difference or not.

[Dresden]

Looking at the rest of our schedule, I think the next 4 games are all winnable- CIN, NYG, MIN, and PIT. We could be 8-3 before we play PHI and GB. After that, the only winnable games look like CLE and SF. So absolute best case would be 10 wins and a possible playoff spot.

On the low side, I'd say 2-3 wins more would be the minimum we should win, which would leave us with 6-7 wins.

That’s how I’ve been seeing it for a few weeks now. I was hoping we could take advantage of a bad defense and no Lamar cs the ravens and get an extra win.

The bengals game is a little less winnable to me now that they have Flacco. And I think it’s fair to question if this offense (mostly the passing game) can take advantage of how terrible the bengals defense is. We did against the cowboys so I think we have a pretty good chance. But yea, we have to come out perfect the next handful of games if we want to have a chance at the playoffs. I’d also add the Vikings to the list of winnable games

I did list the MIN game as one we can win (and really ought to, given their recent play). It's funny to think the Bengals are more dangerous with Flacco than Joe Burrows.

[patryk7754]

Poor Troy Aikman was excoriated for talking about Caleb’s ball placement, or lack thereof..

That was so weird and I thought I was going crazy. In no way did I think aikman was being a dick. Just saying what he’s seeing. Which is a major issue. I just hope Johnson is pointing out the same things. People keep talking about the improvements Williams has made but I haven’t seen anything significant (if anything at all) in all the things that matter.

[patryk7754]

Looking at the rest of our schedule, I think the next 4 games are all winnable- CIN, NYG, MIN, and PIT. We could be 8-3 before we play PHI and GB. After that, the only winnable games look like CLE and SF. So absolute best case would be 10 wins and a possible playoff spot.

On the low side, I'd say 2-3 wins more would be the minimum we should win, which would leave us with 6-7 wins.

That’s how I’ve been seeing it for a few weeks now. I was hoping we could take advantage of a bad defense and no Lamar cs the ravens and get an extra win.

The bengals game is a little less winnable to me now that they have Flacco. And I think it’s fair to question if this offense (mostly the passing game) can take advantage of how terrible the bengals defense is. We did against the cowboys so I think we have a pretty good chance. But yea, we have to come out perfect the next handful of games if we want to have a chance at the playoffs. I’d also add the Vikings to the list of winnable games

I did list the MIN game as one we can win (and really ought to, given their recent play). It's funny to think the Bengals are more dangerous with Flacco than Joe Burrows.

lol idk how I missed that. I wouldn’t say they are more dangerous. The bengals always take a handful of games for the offense to get rolling. The thing Flacco does significantly better is not hold on to the ball

[dougthonus]

Not all NFL QB's have strong arms. Brock Purdy doesn't, and there are others. So yes, being able to throw the ball with velocity is something he does well. I don't know if they have a stat for it, but I would bet he is in the top 1/3 of QB's in terms of completing passes over 15 yards. that's something we rarely saw from Fields, or other recent CHI Qb's.

https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/passing#average-completed-yards

I'm not an expert in these stats, but here's some stuff about them:
Completed air yards: 12th (air yards on completions)
Attempted air yards: 15th (air yads on attempts)
Air yards diffrential: 22nd (tries to show whether you're completing your long passes)
Completion percentage +/-: 37th (which is dead last among qualifying guys (how good he is relative to how good he should be on completions, factoring receiver separation, difficulty of throw, and pressure the QB is under when making the throw)

I'm not sure how reliable any of these things are, but if they are doing a good job on the completion percentage +/-, then it would show that Caleb is actually doing the worst in the entire league relative to the situation he is in terms of accuracy, and it's probably even worse because the Bears have a really low drop%, so this number would seem rest largely on the QB.

[dougthonus]

I don't want to harp on this too much. Like I said when I started this line of thought; I WANT, very badly, for Caleb to be that guy. But to me, what you are describing isn't a lack of consistency. A lack of consistency is "he usually does this thing right, but occasionally he doesn't. He needs to be more consistent". What I am seeing is "he doesn't usually do this thing right, but occasionally he does. He needs to be better at doing this thing".

Still relatively early, but Caleb doesn't look like he's got elite QB stuff. I'm hopeful he can get to Baker Mayfield type QB stuff at this point.

I think he definitely has some elite traits, like what they refer to as "arm talent", but he seems to be missing what is probably the most important attribute a QB can have, which is the mental side of it- knowing how to read defenses, knowing where to throw the ball, decision making, etc. I haven't seen much of those things from him, which is worrisome and disappointing.

Our second stringer is exact opposite- he seems to have all the know how of playing the position, but lacking an elite arm. I still hope we get to see him start a game or two this year, just so we can see if that makes a difference or not.

I think it isn't just mental, I think he doesn't throw an accurate ball. He frequently makes the right read, has the receiver open, has time to throw, and cannot deliver an accurate pass. That is also arm talent. Arm talent isn't just the ability to throw a ball far, it is the fine muscle control to throw a ball accurately, and he seems to lack that.

[biggestbullsfan]

Read on Twitter

Should’ve been us. But what can you do. Can’t plan for injuries.

[Jimako10]

Read on Twitter

This one is painful.

[Stratmaster]

You're being very cynical. You asked what he does well. I replied- he has a strong arm, and at times, he makes really nice throws. If you want to quibble with that, fine, but those are things he can do well.

A strong arm is not "doing something well". At times he makes some really nice throws is not "doing something well". A strong arm is a physical attribute. You can have a strong arm and never play football. As far as "at times he makes some really good throws". No ****. He is an NFL QB for goodness sake. Obviously we are talking relative to NFL quarterback play. And I'm not even holding him to the #1 pick standard. 2nd string QB's on mediocre teams are more accurate and are outperforming him.

Not all NFL QB's have strong arms. Brock Purdy doesn't, and there are others. So yes, being able to throw the ball with velocity is something he does well. I don't know if they have a stat for it, but I would bet he is in the top 1/3 of QB's in terms of completing passes over 15 yards. that's something we rarely saw from Fields, or other recent CHI Qb's.

He is 9th in yards per attempt, 13th in adjusted yards/attempt, and 6th in yards per completion. 10th in Net Yards per attempt, 14th in adjusted net yards per attempt. Those numbers are better than average. I can't find an "over 15" stat yet. So if those are an indicator, he has a better than average arm. We probably both agree those numbers don't really capture what we are looking for. Intended air yards per attempt is 8.2. His air yards per completion is 6. His air yards per attempt is 3.7. You did pick the only area where I can find Caleb in the top 10 of related stats. So you are on to something in that he has good arm strength.

His on-target rate so far this season is 56.2%, which is pretty bad. To give you an idea, last season he was 72.4%. And that number excludes spikes and throwaways. He has had 12 passes batted down this season (he had 9 all of last season, and we were talking about it being a problem then). 16.9 percent of his passes are rated as poor throws. So he can throw it hard, but so far not well.