Bears thread 13

[Stratmaster]

Not all NFL QB's have strong arms. Brock Purdy doesn't, and there are others. So yes, being able to throw the ball with velocity is something he does well. I don't know if they have a stat for it, but I would bet he is in the top 1/3 of QB's in terms of completing passes over 15 yards. that's something we rarely saw from Fields, or other recent CHI Qb's.

https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/passing#average-completed-yards

I'm not an expert in these stats, but here's some stuff about them:
Completed air yards: 12th (air yards on completions)
Attempted air yards: 15th (air yads on attempts)
Air yards diffrential: 22nd (tries to show whether you're completing your long passes)
Completion percentage +/-: 37th (which is dead last among qualifying guys (how good he is relative to how good he should be on completions, factoring receiver separation, difficulty of throw, and pressure the QB is under when making the throw)

I'm not sure how reliable any of these things are, but if they are doing a good job on the completion percentage +/-, then it would show that Caleb is actually doing the worst in the entire league relative to the situation he is in terms of accuracy, and it's probably even worse because the Bears have a really low drop%, so this number would seem rest largely on the QB.

While you were posting this, I was compiling and posting similar stats from Pro Football reference. They show the same trends and issues.

[Dresden]

A strong arm is not "doing something well". At times he makes some really nice throws is not "doing something well". A strong arm is a physical attribute. You can have a strong arm and never play football. As far as "at times he makes some really good throws". No ****. He is an NFL QB for goodness sake. Obviously we are talking relative to NFL quarterback play. And I'm not even holding him to the #1 pick standard. 2nd string QB's on mediocre teams are more accurate and are outperforming him.

Not all NFL QB's have strong arms. Brock Purdy doesn't, and there are others. So yes, being able to throw the ball with velocity is something he does well. I don't know if they have a stat for it, but I would bet he is in the top 1/3 of QB's in terms of completing passes over 15 yards. that's something we rarely saw from Fields, or other recent CHI Qb's.

He is 9th in yards per attempt, 13th in adjusted yards/attempt, and 6th in yards per completion. 10th in Net Yards per attempt, 14th in adjusted net yards per attempt. Those numbers are better than average. I can't find an "over 15" stat yet. So if those are an indicator, he has a better than average arm. We probably both agree those numbers don't really capture what we are looking for. Intended air yards per attempt is 8.2. His air yards per completion is 6. His air yards per attempt is 3.7. You did pick the only area where I can find Caleb in the top 10 of related stats. So you are on to something in that he has good arm strength.

His on-target rate so far this season is 56.2%, which is pretty bad. To give you an idea, last season he was 72.4%. And that number excludes spikes and throwaways. He has had 12 passes batted down this season (he had 9 all of last season, and we were talking about it being a problem then). 16.9 percent of his passes are rated as poor throws. So he can throw it hard, but so far not well.

You can live with a lower accuracy if he's making up for that with big plays, which it looks like to some extent he is. We're 12th in the league in passing yards per game, so we are moving the ball through the air.

I don't believe accuracy was a problem for him in college, so it would be strange if he suddenly wasn't able to throw an accurate ball. It could be related to other factors- indecisiveness, jitters/nerves, just being uncomfortable with the system/leading to lack of confidence. I don't know, but I hope he improves.

[biggestbullsfan]

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We gonna lose to Jake Browning now? That I can’t stand for lol

[biggestbullsfan]

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From this angle. It’s less on Caleb but still not great.

[Betta Bulleavit]

I don't want to harp on this too much. Like I said when I started this line of thought; I WANT, very badly, for Caleb to be that guy. But to me, what you are describing isn't a lack of consistency. A lack of consistency is "he usually does this thing right, but occasionally he doesn't. He needs to be more consistent". What I am seeing is "he doesn't usually do this thing right, but occasionally he does. He needs to be better at doing this thing".

Still relatively early, but Caleb doesn't look like he's got elite QB stuff. I'm hopeful he can get to Baker Mayfield type QB stuff at this point.

Out of pure curiosity, what is considered as elite QB stuff and what QBs do you feel have it?

I ask because at his best, I see Caleb as a top 8-12 level QB. Would elite be more of a perennial top 5 guy?

[Dresden]

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From this angle. It’s less on Caleb but still not great.

Yeah, that was not really on Caleb. The whole series didn't really matter, but still. Why call a pass play that's not in the end zone? On that first handoff play, if Caleb had kept it, it looked like he could easily have made it around the right end.

[Dresden]

I don't want to harp on this too much. Like I said when I started this line of thought; I WANT, very badly, for Caleb to be that guy. But to me, what you are describing isn't a lack of consistency. A lack of consistency is "he usually does this thing right, but occasionally he doesn't. He needs to be more consistent". What I am seeing is "he doesn't usually do this thing right, but occasionally he does. He needs to be better at doing this thing".

Still relatively early, but Caleb doesn't look like he's got elite QB stuff. I'm hopeful he can get to Baker Mayfield type QB stuff at this point.

Out of pure curiosity, what is considered as elite QB stuff and what QBs do you feel have it?

I ask because at his best, I see Caleb as a top 8-12 level QB. Would elite be more of a perennial top 5 guy?

He was supposed to be the best prospect since Andrew Luck, that's why expectations are so high. Although even Luck didn't have all that great of an NFL career, even in the time he was in the league. Trevor Lawrence, the last guy who had that tag, is right now a bottom half QB. So it just goes to show, you really can't predict success at the NFL level.

The thing with evaluating Caleb is, it's hard to separate the player from the team, IMO. If Drake Maye was in CHI, would he be having the same success he's having in NE? If Caleb was in WAS, would he have taken them to the NFC title game last year? Last year, there were some big doubts about Maye, this year, he's in the MVP discussion. Last year, Daniels was spectacular, this year, he's been pretty mediocre. Maybe next year Caleb will outshine them both. It's hard to say, and it has a lot to do with the players around them, their coaches, and the system they're in.

[panthermark]

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From this angle. It’s less on Caleb but still not great.

CW was looking to his right at the snap, probably for Rome.

DJ was WIDE OPEN in the first window, and the MLB was flowing to side following CW's eyes. By the time he gets back to DJ and double clutches, everything is out of synch.

[IliketheBullsNBearstoo]

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From this angle. It’s less on Caleb but still not great.

Yeah I'm hoping Caleb's accuracy issues are more just timing/ chemistry issues. Would be easier to fix.

[dougthonus]

Out of pure curiosity, what is considered as elite QB stuff and what QBs do you feel have it?

I ask because at his best, I see Caleb as a top 8-12 level QB. Would elite be more of a perennial top 5 guy?

That seems pretty reasonable to me. Like an elite QB is someone you think any given year is probably top 10, and the next tier is a guy who might have a top 10 season one year, but you aren't confident in them doing it every year.

From a skills perspective, the big thing I'm missing right now is he misses too many guys when they are open even when he has time and doesn't display enough touch or accuracy on his throws. I'd expect to see that now, and then I'd expect to see him get better and better with the reads as time goes on.

[nomorezorro]

i think the fact that the reads appear to be ahead of the accuracy/mechanics at this point in the process means there's a better shot of him figuring it out than the reverse, for whatever that's worth. (especially when coupled with the fact that caleb has some history at both the college/professional ranks that give you some hope that the inaccuracy isn't just baked into who he is as a thrower — e.g. his accuracy was average-to-good on short/medium throws last year even though it's bad this year, which suggests it might just be a dip associated with him adjusting his form/timing/etc. to what johnson wants him to do)

obviously there's reason to be concerned that he's struggling with accuracy this badly halfway through his sophomore year at all, but i think there's still a really wide range of outcomes for him

[MalagaBulls]

Absolutely brutal news!!!

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[Dresden]

Absolutely brutal news!!!

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Turner was pretty unremarkable in his limited time this year. I don't have high hopes for him, and he was a second round pick which you'd expect to be a starter before too long. We'll see next year I guess.

[Dresden]

https://overthecap.com/apy-on-injured-reserve

Chart showing the total salary from each team that is on injured reserve. Bears are currently 10th on the list. SF is in first by a wide margin.

[Dresden]

i think the fact that the reads appear to be ahead of the accuracy/mechanics at this point in the process means there's a better shot of him figuring it out than the reverse, for whatever that's worth. (especially when coupled with the fact that caleb has some history at both the college/professional ranks that give you some hope that the inaccuracy isn't just baked into who he is as a thrower — e.g. his accuracy was average-to-good on short/medium throws last year even though it's bad this year, which suggests it might just be a dip associated with him adjusting his form/timing/etc. to what johnson wants him to do)

obviously there's reason to be concerned that he's struggling with accuracy this badly halfway through his sophomore year at all, but i think there's still a really wide range of outcomes for him

I'm glad you think he's good at reading the field, because that's an area I see him as being weak in. I don't have much in the way of proof for that, but I tend to think he is checking down far too often when there are plays to made downfield. Aikman was pointing that out on the MNF telecast a few weeks ago.

And I agree that his range of outcomes is still pretty wide right now, which is both good (that he still has time to reach his ceiling), and bad (that being a bust is still very much on the table).

[GoBlue72391]

Sometimes it takes QBs 3, 4, 5, 6 years until they get it. There's so much to that position that doesn't apply to any other position in sports. You can have the greatest arm of all time but it doesn't mean squat if you don't have the brain.

Teams are far, far too impatient with young QBs these days. If they don't have it figured out by the end of year 3, they're gone. I remember when QBs typically sat and watched their first few years. I remember when guys like Alex Smith, David Carr, Joey Harrington, etc. were given half a decade or more to figure it out. Some eventually do, some don't.

CW has had his highs and lows and overall has fallen short of expectations so far, but we're still so early into his career and he's shown enough to prove he's worth continuing to be patient with.

[Hold That]

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From this angle. It’s less on Caleb but still not great.

CW was looking to his right at the snap, probably for Rome.

DJ was WIDE OPEN in the first window, and the MLB was flowing to side following CW's eyes. By the time he gets back to DJ and double clutches, everything is out of synch.

Difference between an all-pro WR and just a very good one..

All-Pros understand passing windows and wouldve settled down in one

[dice]

The penalties are just killer

We didn't deserve to win today, but that missed call on Hopkins is a disgrace. The refs would have called offensive PI on us for that same play with how the season has gone.

that was not an egregious non-call given the hand fighting prior. couldn't even see it really on one of the camera angles. but it was a significant miss

I’m wondering if there’s an effect on referees when they do games with highly penalized teams. They kind of are looking for stuff brought up in pregame meetings that the Bears tend to do wrong, and they actually don’t see the other team as often. And they may actually manifest outcomes. Did Thuney move at all on the false start? Refs took their cues from the Ravens on that play it looked like.

do you think they study teams like that? would be news to me

i didn't see thuney move, but he didn't seem to complain much either

[dice]

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From this angle. It’s less on Caleb but still not great.

CW was looking to his right at the snap, probably for Rome.

DJ was WIDE OPEN in the first window, and the MLB was flowing to side following CW's eyes. By the time he gets back to DJ and double clutches, everything is out of synch.

Difference between an all-pro WR and just a very good one..

All-Pros understand passing windows and wouldve settled down in one

i don't think they practice being that wide open and having to take their pick of where to comfortably "settle"

[dice]

Sometimes it takes QBs 3, 4, 5, 6 years until they get it. There's so much to that position that doesn't apply to any other position in sports. You can have the greatest arm of all time but it doesn't mean squat if you don't have the brain.

Teams are far, far too impatient with young QBs these days. If they don't have it figured out by the end of year 3, they're gone. I remember when QBs typically sat and watched their first few years. I remember when guys like Alex Smith, David Carr, Joey Harrington, etc. were given half a decade or more to figure it out. Some eventually do, some don't.

CW has had his highs and lows and overall has fallen short of expectations so far, but we're still so early into his career and he's shown enough to prove he's worth continuing to be patient with.

the approaching end of the rookie contract has become an inflection point