TheStig wrote:I am amazed at how quick the fall has been. The Dow was nearly at 30k and then just dropped to 18k before todays bump.
Part of it is that the market was probably already at a natural bubble. There was something like 70% growth since 2016 while GDP was not growing by anything remotely near a rate that would make this rate reasonable or sensible. Right now, we're probably a reasonable value of the stock market if there were no bad news and there were no corona virus.
That's why I think there's a lot of downside. Our GDP this year will likely be less than 2016 which would make you think a number below 2016 numbers makes the most sense. I tend to follow the SP500 more than the Dow, but SP500 was around 2k in 2016. I think there is potential for the market to slip down to 1600 or so even with the government aid preventing mass bankruptcies. There is still going to be a lack of earnings and mounting debt.
If the government doesn't massively bail out all kinds of industries, then it's going to be even crazier.