Bears 12.0

[dice]

QBR by college season:

2021 - JD 66 caleb 83*
2022 - JD 72 caleb 84
2023 - JD 93 caleb 80

*8 games

caleb was consistently excellent and the higher rated recruit as well. so the question was whether JD's freakish heisman year aided by tremendous receivers was a fluke

[fleet]

QBR by college season:

2021 - JD 66 caleb 83*
2022 - JD 72 caleb 84
2023 - JD 93 caleb 80

*8 games

caleb was consistently excellent and the higher rated recruit as well. so the question was whether JD's freakish heisman year aided by tremendous receivers was a fluke

I couldn’t say who to draft before the draft. Only if I was involved in the process, I wouldn’t want it to be rigged. The process going forward has to be honest and sound. JD was gaining momentum around draft time, as he was all throughout. IIRC, the year before he wasn’t even a day 2 prospect in publications. I reckon if the draft were a month or 2 later than it was, there would be more voices for JD

Why are the media attacking this young man? Caleb just needs to ball out. Chicago is worse than the New York media; the young man should pretty much ignore them.

Chicagoans don’t know New York media like New Yorkers do. In any event, I do not believe this comes out of Chicago.


Dunne actually believes the story is as much about Ryan Poles as it is Caleb. If not more. The circus and circumstances around Caleb’s draft and first year performances are interesting, and they beg curiosity for reporters to investigate and write stories over. If Caleb does well, and the Bears win, there will be a lot less interest in writing about 2024.

[Dresden]

People are making a big deal over the fact that Daniels had such a better year than Caleb last year (as did their teams). And now are having buyer's remorse. Last year it was CJ Stroud people were fretting over not having taken. But in '24, CJ Stroud's QBR was just 4 spots ahead of Caleb's, who was playing on a completely dysfunctional offense. So let's wait a few years before judging the outcomes of these draft choices.

[fleet]

Let me rephrase again to try and be even more clear then, fundamentally, I don't like picks for player trades when you are rebuilding. If we didn't extend the player that makes it worse, not better.

Got it. While that might be a reason to downgrade Poles if it goes against your philosophy, overall I am encouraged by the direction of the team under Poles, and I think we have a chance to be really good in the near future. We have, hopefully, an excellent coach and what was said to be a generational prospect at QB, and a fair amount of talent across the board (the O line was ranked in the top 5, the receiving corp in the top 10). Still have work to do on the D line, but compared to the past few regimes, I think this is hands down the most potential the team has had in decades, so I have to give Poles a lot of credit for that.

The majority of good stuff that has happened appears mostly to be dumb luck rather than plan, so I give him very little credit.

So far he has had the #1 pick in the draft twice where what presently looks like a franchise QB was drafted #2 both times and he still may not have one.

If that holds true with time, that is back to back franchise breaking misses where a franchise making move was literally 1 pick away.

Things have broken pretty well for Poles and the Bears all considering the shenanigans. (we think) The Bears have a future. But what could have been is the painful part. The disappointing aspect of his tenure is that it could have been so much better had he stopped pressing, earnestly listened to other opinions, and used some basic common wisdom that he was preaching, but not following. He’s probably got some decent insights, but he hasn’t augmented his base ability with other perspectives. That’s a tough way to live.

[dougthonus]

Owners have a lot invested in the outcome of their teams. I would imagine they are often talking with people around the league about who is good at what they do, who isn't, and they hear it from much better sources than fans do. For instance when they picked Poles, I"m sure the owners got his name from people they spoke to about who might be good for the job, who is the hot candidate right now, who is ready for a bigger role, etc.

As to their performance once they are in their jobs, they probably base an evaluation in part on what people around the league are saying about the team, and how they are being managed by the GM. And of course by their own interactions with the GM and the results they see on the field. They might even talk to consultants from time to time and get their opinion. At least that's my guess.

I'm sure, but then at the same time, finding people who are true experts and also not conflicted is probably really hard.

[dougthonus]

I never saw the problem with this. In free agency, you're competing with any number of teams for free agents. That alone makes it likely you will overpay for premium players. By trading for a player on an expiring contract, you are able to pay less in a trade than normal, due to his contract status, and by then re-signing that player, you're doing it before they hit the open market, and therefore increase your odds of getting a good deal.

A case in point in 2 or 3 years ago in FA when the Bears had a ton of cap space, and desperately needed off. lineman, and yet failed to get anyone of note in FA because they good ones all went for exorbitant prices, and it was probably good Poles didn't win any of those bids. It's the same with pass rushers- the good ones are almost always overpaid in free agency. He locked up Sweat at what was then a reasonable contract, and didn't have to overpay. The price to do that was a second round pick. In order to guarantee you'll get the player you want, that doesnt' seem like too high of a price. Of course, whether Sweat was worth it or not is another question.

Mathematically it is a terrible idea to give up high value assets for the right to pay market value for a player even if you cannot get that player in FA at the same value. Overall, when you repeat this transaction you lose total value. Yes, you might miss out on this guy, but over time you will have the option to get a different guy and have more total value. There are times when that is fine because you are aiming for a title immediately and thus you need to maximize value in a short term window, the Bears have not been in that position under Poles.

i finally have a doppleganger!

Haha, I've been your doppleganger on this one the whole time

[dougthonus]

Things have broken pretty well for Poles and the Bears all considering the shenanigans. (we think) The Bears have a future. But what could have been is the painful part. The disappointing aspect of his tenure is that it could have been so much better had he stopped pressing, earnestly listened to other opinions, and used some basic common wisdom that he was preaching, but not following. He’s probably got some decent insights, but he hasn’t augmented his base ability with other perspectives. That’s a tough way to live.

People feel the arrow is pointing up, but the reality is we have 3, 7, 5 wins over his first 3 years, most of the good stuff feels like dumb luck, and so far he hasn't leveraged the good stuff into any results in the record books. If Caleb is a miss, then he will be a generationally dumb GM to whiff on pro bowl QBs with the #1 pick in back to back years that go #2.

[SalmonsSuperfan]

QBR by college season:

2021 - JD 66 caleb 83*
2022 - JD 72 caleb 84
2023 - JD 93 caleb 80

*8 games

caleb was consistently excellent and the higher rated recruit as well. so the question was whether JD's freakish heisman year aided by tremendous receivers was a fluke

In hindsight, can definitely say it wasn't a fluke, right? I don't think you can call it "freakish", "aided by receivers" because he's clearly a very good NFL player and the QBR differential between them is even more pronounced in the NFL (~25 points). If you just look at this trend you've posted, one shows a guy who is improving year over year while the other guy looks stagnant. Based on what I know of their college careers (not much), Jayden's game looked like it would actually translate whereas Caleb seemed like the Jimmer Fredette of QBs. Undersized for one, but mostly in the sense of taking advantage of non-professional defenders doing stuff that isn't gonna fly in the pros (scrambling around, holding onto the ball forever).

I dunno what NFL scouts were thinking. I mean, I'm saying this in hindsight, but it seems absurd to me that Caleb was "clearly" the number one pick. Didn't he suck in big games against the best college teams?

[jnrjr79]

Things have broken pretty well for Poles and the Bears all considering the shenanigans. (we think) The Bears have a future. But what could have been is the painful part. The disappointing aspect of his tenure is that it could have been so much better had he stopped pressing, earnestly listened to other opinions, and used some basic common wisdom that he was preaching, but not following. He’s probably got some decent insights, but he hasn’t augmented his base ability with other perspectives. That’s a tough way to live.

People feel the arrow is pointing up, but the reality is we have 3, 7, 5 wins over his first 3 years, most of the good stuff feels like dumb luck, and so far he hasn't leveraged the good stuff into any results in the record books. If Caleb is a miss, then he will be a generationally dumb GM to whiff on pro bowl QBs with the #1 pick in back to back years that go #2.

I don’t really believe the bolded. That would mean the outcome would be super terrible, but highly touted QBs bust all the time because NFL front offices just lack the ability to consistently evaluate them and it’s the toughest position to play in sports.

[dougthonus]

I don’t really believe the bolded. That would mean the outcome would be super terrible, but highly touted QBs bust all the time because NFL front offices just lack the ability to consistently evaluate them and it’s the toughest position to play in sports.

Guess it depends, even prior to the Dunne report there was a lot of rumors that we were locked in on Caleb and didn't do due diligence. Maybe generationally dumb is a bit harsh, but he will be completely unfit to hold the position. You didn't even have a process to make the most important decision you will ever make and screwed it up with once in a generation assets that you had twice in three years.

[jnrjr79]

I don’t really believe the bolded. That would mean the outcome would be super terrible, but highly touted QBs bust all the time because NFL front offices just lack the ability to consistently evaluate them and it’s the toughest position to play in sports.

Guess it depends, even prior to the Dunne report there was a lot of rumors that we were locked in on Caleb and didn't do due diligence. Maybe generationally dumb is a bit harsh, but he will be completely unfit to hold the position. You didn't even have a process to make the most important decision you will ever make and screwed it up with once in a generation assets that you had twice in three years.

100% agree if it’s accurate that they basically didn’t scout other QBs that he should be sacked - not because he swung and missed on Caleb’s, but for failing to perform the basic duties of his job.

[fleet]

I don’t really believe the bolded. That would mean the outcome would be super terrible, but highly touted QBs bust all the time because NFL front offices just lack the ability to consistently evaluate them and it’s the toughest position to play in sports.

Guess it depends, even prior to the Dunne report there was a lot of rumors that we were locked in on Caleb and didn't do due diligence. Maybe generationally dumb is a bit harsh, but he will be completely unfit to hold the position. You didn't even have a process to make the most important decision you will ever make and screwed it up with once in a generation assets that you had twice in three years.

100% agree if it’s accurate that they basically didn’t scout other QBs that he should be sacked - not because he swung and missed on Caleb’s, but for failing to perform the basic duties of his job.

Any time a GM messes up the quarterback position, his seat is hot. But if the process leading up to the choices is messed up, in Chicago you get an extension.

You know, IDK what’s up with George McCaskey, and how Poles kept his job. Even with George’s limited bandwidth. Lets think about the rare situations the Bears found themselves in 2 years in a row with regard to the quarterback position. Then, you bring one in, and you’re completely unprepared to deal with him properly. Totally botched, and you had years to be ready. I gotta believe Ben Johnson had a great deal to do with Poles being here still. As I said earlier, a coach having the opportunity to sort of control his own GM has to be pretty attractive. Even George recognizes that the structure of the team wasn’t functioning well. Despite the extension. And even Ryan may have realized he had to bring in a solution ASAP.

[dougthonus]

Any time a GM messes up the quarterback position, his seat is hot. But if the process leading up to the choices is messed up, in Chicago you get an extension.

You know, IDK what’s up with George McCaskey, and how Poles kept his job. Even with George’s limited bandwidth. Lets think about the rare situations the Bears found themselves in 2 years in a row with regard to the quarterback position. Then, you bring one in, and you’re completely unprepared to deal with him properly. Totally botched, and you had years to be ready. I gotta believe Ben Johnson had a great deal to do with Poles being here still. As I said earlier, a coach having the opportunity to sort of control his own GM has to be pretty attractive.

I think the case for Poles is something like:
1: Relatively short tenure, he hasn't had a chance to fully imprint his vision
2: Potentially had a big win on the trade of the #1 pick to get the next #1 pick

I can see pretty easily why they weren't ready to pull the trigger yet if you build the narrative.

[fleet]

Things have broken pretty well for Poles and the Bears all considering the shenanigans. (we think) The Bears have a future. But what could have been is the painful part. The disappointing aspect of his tenure is that it could have been so much better had he stopped pressing, earnestly listened to other opinions, and used some basic common wisdom that he was preaching, but not following. He’s probably got some decent insights, but he hasn’t augmented his base ability with other perspectives. That’s a tough way to live.

People feel the arrow is pointing up, but the reality is we have 3, 7, 5 wins over his first 3 years, most of the good stuff feels like dumb luck, and so far he hasn't leveraged the good stuff into any results in the record books. If Caleb is a miss, then he will be a generationally dumb GM to whiff on pro bowl QBs with the #1 pick in back to back years that go #2.

It would be a devastating swing and miss. Its like strongly considering a 3-2 fastball down the middle is coming. Tie game. Top of the ninth. Play in. But you still have to hit it, and guys do sometimes hit it poorly or miss.

Ryan Poles is very young. And he was holding a job with little restriction to his power until and after Kevin Warren came aboard to take a critical eye to the operation. It was like a guy with yes, a good amount of native intelligence that never drove a 4x4 before suddenly buying a Hennessy Velociraptor and heading out to a Baja race. Turns out the ego was outsized based on the lack of demonstrated experience on his resume. Alright, it crashed. Time to adjust. This may have been why KW was hired in addition to the stadium. Just in case the football operation wasn’t up to snuff. I don’t think that presser we saw where KW looked like the adult sitting with Poles was an accident. That meant the Bears were finally aware of a problem in the plan. Ben now has to show he knows what he is doing at helm of this.

[fleet]

Any time a GM messes up the quarterback position, his seat is hot. But if the process leading up to the choices is messed up, in Chicago you get an extension.

You know, IDK what’s up with George McCaskey, and how Poles kept his job. Even with George’s limited bandwidth. Lets think about the rare situations the Bears found themselves in 2 years in a row with regard to the quarterback position. Then, you bring one in, and you’re completely unprepared to deal with him properly. Totally botched, and you had years to be ready. I gotta believe Ben Johnson had a great deal to do with Poles being here still. As I said earlier, a coach having the opportunity to sort of control his own GM has to be pretty attractive.

I think the case for Poles is something like:
1: Relatively short tenure, he hasn't had a chance to fully imprint his vision
2: Potentially had a big win on the trade of the #1 pick to get the next #1 pick

I can see pretty easily why they weren't ready to pull the trigger yet if you build the narrative.

That trade is fools gold with regard to the GM to me, but whatever. The vision is spotty and inconsistent At best. Tanked, and we are yea still waiting for results.

I think we shouldn’t ignore that idea of Virginia really liking Ryan Poles. George is very respectful of her wishes. Not being ready to be ruthless on accountability with the trigger could have something to do with sentiment as well. They went halfway by bringing in Ben to keep everyone honest.

[Jcool0]

Its early but Justin Fields is looking good for the Jets.

Read on Twitter

[dougthonus]

That trade is fools gold with regard to the GM to me, but whatever. The vision is spotty and inconsistent At best. Tanked, and we are yea still waiting for results.

I think we shouldn’t ignore that idea of Virginia really liking Ryan Poles. George is very respectful of her wishes. Not being ready to be ruthless on accountability with the trigger could have something to do with sentiment as well. They went halfway by bringing in Ben to keep everyone honest.

FWIW, not saying I agree with that narrative, just saying I think that I can see why someone might. I wouldn't even speculate around the relationships between all these people. I just have no idea.

[fleet]

Its early but Justin Fields is looking good for the Jets.

Read on Twitter

158 QBR. AR8 150 QBR.

[Jcool0]

Its early but Justin Fields is looking good for the Jets.

Read on Twitter

158 QBR. AR8 150 QBR.

Difference being

Read on Twitter

[Bulls69]

People are making a big deal over the fact that Daniels had such a better year than Caleb last year (as did their teams). And now are having buyer's remorse. Last year it was CJ Stroud people were fretting over not having taken. But in '24, CJ Stroud's QBR was just 4 spots ahead of Caleb's, who was playing on a completely dysfunctional offense. So let's wait a few years before judging the outcomes of these draft choices.

You right the Bears fan base gives up so on our player. I'm old enough to remember Peyton Manning threw 28 int's in his rookie season and he turned out to be one of the greatest Quarterback ever.