Bears thread 13

[dice]

Read on Twitter

From this angle. It’s less on Caleb but still not great.

CW was looking to his right at the snap, probably for Rome.

DJ was WIDE OPEN in the first window, and the MLB was flowing to side following CW's eyes. By the time he gets back to DJ and double clutches, everything is out of synch.

it's like he can't believe DJ is that wide open in the first window, so DJ thinks he'd better keep moving when the ball doesn't initially come his way

[FecesOfDeath]

Caleb is just dog doo-doo after the first read. Let him have a seven-step drop between the 20s, and he's a serviceable starting QB, but in the red zone against compressed defenses, he's a deer in headlights who needs the running game or a clever Ben Johnson playcall to bail him out. It's why he continues to rack up a respectable amount of passing yards but can't punch it into the end zone.

It's also why be barely ever targets DJ or the tight ends. Unless either of them is his first read, Caleb rarely ever throws to targets with two yards or less separation from their defender, and I can count on one hand how many back shoulder throws Caleb has attempted his entire NFL career.

With the exception of Rome, Caleb has zero faith in his receivers to ever haul in a contested ball, and he has zero faith in the accuracy of his throws. It severely restricts the types of plays that Ben Johnson can call -- the types that require impeccable timing and mailbox accuracy. It's nearly Justin Fields all over again.

[Dresden]

Caleb is just dog doo-doo after the first read. Let him have a seven-step drop between the 20s, and he's a serviceable starting QB, but in the red zone against compressed defenses, he's a deer in headlights who needs the running game or a clever Ben Johnson playcall to bail him out. It's why he continues to rack up a respectable amount of passing yards but can't punch it into the end zone.

It's also why be barely ever targets DJ or the tight ends. Unless either of them is his first read, Caleb rarely ever throws to targets with two yards or less separation from their defender, and I can count on one hand how many back shoulder throws Caleb has attempted his entire NFL career.

With the exception of Rome, Caleb has zero faith in his receivers to ever haul in a contested ball, and he has zero faith in the accuracy of his throws. It severely restricts the types of plays that Ben Johnson can call -- the types that require impeccable timing and mailbox accuracy. It's nearly Justin Fields all over again.

DJ is tied for second on the team in targets.

[FecesOfDeath]

Sometimes it takes QBs 3, 4, 5, 6 years until they get it. There's so much to that position that doesn't apply to any other position in sports. You can have the greatest arm of all time but it doesn't mean squat if you don't have the brain.

Teams are far, far too impatient with young QBs these days. If they don't have it figured out by the end of year 3, they're gone. I remember when QBs typically sat and watched their first few years. I remember when guys like Alex Smith, David Carr, Joey Harrington, etc. were given half a decade or more to figure it out. Some eventually do, some don't.

CW has had his highs and lows and overall has fallen short of expectations so far, but we're still so early into his career and he's shown enough to prove he's worth continuing to be patient with.

Hopefully, you wrote that with full awareness that the Bears had Justin Fields for three years, but they didn't give him any legit skill position weapons until DJ Moore in Year 3.

It's Years 1 and 2, and the Bears have given Caleb a collection of offensive talent that rivals that which was given to fellow NFL sophomores Burrow and Herbert in 2021, and Mahomes in 2018. The fact that Caleb isn't even close to sniffing 5000 yards despite all that talent around him this year shows just how broken of a QB he already is.

[FecesOfDeath]

Caleb is just dog doo-doo after the first read. Let him have a seven-step drop between the 20s, and he's a serviceable starting QB, but in the red zone against compressed defenses, he's a deer in headlights who needs the running game or a clever Ben Johnson playcall to bail him out. It's why he continues to rack up a respectable amount of passing yards but can't punch it into the end zone.

It's also why be barely ever targets DJ or the tight ends. Unless either of them is his first read, Caleb rarely ever throws to targets with two yards or less separation from their defender, and I can count on one hand how many back shoulder throws Caleb has attempted his entire NFL career.

With the exception of Rome, Caleb has zero faith in his receivers to ever haul in a contested ball, and he has zero faith in the accuracy of his throws. It severely restricts the types of plays that Ben Johnson can call -- the types that require impeccable timing and mailbox accuracy. It's nearly Justin Fields all over again.

DJ is tied for second on the team in targets.

And do you see what type of touches he gets? Handoffs and screens. His ADOT is 8.7, which is the second-lowest of his career, ahead of only last year. So, the two lowest ADOTs of his entire career are with Caleb Williams as his QB. Caleb doesn't look DJ's way past the LoS unless he's his first read, or unless he unavoidably wide-ass-open, like that missed TD pass to end the game.

[dice]

QBR during bears tenure (50 being borderline starter):

53.9 cutler
50.2 trubisky
46.3 fields
45.9 caleb
45.3 orton
40.4 grossman

[FecesOfDeath]

QBR during bears tenure (50 being borderline starter):

53.9 cutler
50.2 trubisky
46.3 fields
45.9 caleb
45.3 orton
40.4 grossman

QBR is usually a great measuring stick for overall QB play, but there are exceptions.

Kyler Murray had the 9th-highest QBR last season. I think it's safe to say that Murray was not the 9th best QB.

Trubisky was 3rd. THIRD! In the entire NFL back in 2018, behind only Brees and Mahomes. Was he actually a Top 3 QB that season?

[dice]

Sometimes it takes QBs 3, 4, 5, 6 years until they get it. There's so much to that position that doesn't apply to any other position in sports. You can have the greatest arm of all time but it doesn't mean squat if you don't have the brain.

Teams are far, far too impatient with young QBs these days. If they don't have it figured out by the end of year 3, they're gone. I remember when QBs typically sat and watched their first few years. I remember when guys like Alex Smith, David Carr, Joey Harrington, etc. were given half a decade or more to figure it out. Some eventually do, some don't.

CW has had his highs and lows and overall has fallen short of expectations so far, but we're still so early into his career and he's shown enough to prove he's worth continuing to be patient with.

Hopefully, you wrote that with full awareness that the Bears had Justin Fields for three years, but they didn't give him any legit skill position weapons until DJ Moore in Year 3

year 1 - mooney, kmet, allen robinson, monty
year 2 - mooney, kmet, monty
year 3 - mooney, kmet, DJ

DJ arrived and justin became LESS effective because he started throwing more

[dice]

QBR during bears tenure (50 being borderline starter):

53.9 cutler
50.2 trubisky
46.3 fields
45.9 caleb
45.3 orton
40.4 grossman

QBR is usually a great measuring stick for overall QB play, but there are exceptions.

Kyler Murray had the 9th-highest QBR last season. I think it's safe to say that Murray was not the 9th best QB.

Trubisky was 3rd. THIRD! In the entire NFL back in 2018, behind only Brees and Mahomes. Was he actually a Top 3 QB that season?

QBR is good because it factors in the run. and situational play. and the contributions of others to the success of the passing game

trubisky had an amazing knack for converting third downs in 2018 (many with his legs). and he spread the ball around nicely. average offense despite complete overhaul of receiving corps and new head coach. it was a nearly magical season that wasn't sustainable. and kyler completed 69% of his passes along w/ 572 yards rushing last year. doesn't surprise me at all when he pokes his head into the top 10

trubisky did make the pro bowl. he was 7th in EPA, which adjusts QBR to how many passing/QB designed run plays were called. bears ran the ball 45% of the time that year

[panthermark]

Caleb is just dog doo-doo after the first read. Let him have a seven-step drop between the 20s, and he's a serviceable starting QB, but in the red zone against compressed defenses, he's a deer in headlights who needs the running game or a clever Ben Johnson playcall to bail him out. It's why he continues to rack up a respectable amount of passing yards but can't punch it into the end zone.

It's also why be barely ever targets DJ or the tight ends. Unless either of them is his first read, Caleb rarely ever throws to targets with two yards or less separation from their defender, and I can count on one hand how many back shoulder throws Caleb has attempted his entire NFL career.

With the exception of Rome, Caleb has zero faith in his receivers to ever haul in a contested ball, and he has zero faith in the accuracy of his throws. It severely restricts the types of plays that Ben Johnson can call -- the types that require impeccable timing and mailbox accuracy. It's nearly Justin Fields all over again.

DJ is tied for second on the team in targets.

But it is a fairly large gap for players that have not missed a game, and to be honest, DJ and OZ should not be tied for targets (being that DJ is about twice as productive).

56 - Rome
38 - DJ
38 - OZ
24 - Swift


OZ's career high in targets is 61. He is on pace to blow that away.
DJ's is on pace for the 2nd lowest amount of targets in a year in his career. His lowest was 82, when we was a rookie and it was still a 16 game season. He has had no less than 118 targets every year since.

[Hold That]

CW was looking to his right at the snap, probably for Rome.

DJ was WIDE OPEN in the first window, and the MLB was flowing to side following CW's eyes. By the time he gets back to DJ and double clutches, everything is out of synch.

Difference between an all-pro WR and just a very good one..

All-Pros understand passing windows and wouldve settled down in one

i don't think they practice being that wide open and having to take their pick of where to comfortably "settle"

It’s more situational awareness. Great receivers understand that they can’t plant directly behind a defender and expect for it to be an easy throw. Especially in the red zone when the field is already shorten.

Theres a reason why players like Jettas and St Brown get so many receptions, they are great at this. Everything isn’t always just out running or routing your defender.

It’s called finding the “soft spot” in the zone.

[fleet]

Caleb is just dog doo-doo after the first read. Let him have a seven-step drop between the 20s, and he's a serviceable starting QB, but in the red zone against compressed defenses, he's a deer in headlights who needs the running game or a clever Ben Johnson playcall to bail him out. It's why he continues to rack up a respectable amount of passing yards but can't punch it into the end zone.

It's also why be barely ever targets DJ or the tight ends. Unless either of them is his first read, Caleb rarely ever throws to targets with two yards or less separation from their defender, and I can count on one hand how many back shoulder throws Caleb has attempted his entire NFL career.

With the exception of Rome, Caleb has zero faith in his receivers to ever haul in a contested ball, and he has zero faith in the accuracy of his throws. It severely restricts the types of plays that Ben Johnson can call -- the types that require impeccable timing and mailbox accuracy. It's nearly Justin Fields all over again.

After the scripted plays, all his stats start to tank. Gotta hope when he is able to fully understand the offense that he’ll have better command. I don’t perceive his personality as a leadership personality though. It’s a problem.

[IliketheBullsNBearstoo]

Difference between an all-pro WR and just a very good one..

All-Pros understand passing windows and wouldve settled down in one

i don't think they practice being that wide open and having to take their pick of where to comfortably "settle"

It’s more situational awareness. Great receivers understand that they can’t plant directly behind a defender and expect for it to be an easy throw. Especially in the red zone when the field is already shorten.

Theres a reason why players like Jettas and St Brown get so many receptions, they are great at this. Everything isn’t always just out running or routing your defender.

It’s called finding the “soft spot” in the zone.

Yeah you would think stopping behind Roquan isn't the best spot. But speaking of soft, I think had Caleb thrown more of a soft lob there DJ gets it. Needs to work on his touch with throws.

[fleet]

The ACL tear Shemar Turner has is the same leg as his stress fracture/titanium rod insertion, and ankle injury. One has to wonder about that leg. And the wisdom of drafting that leg.

[molepharmer]

Difference between an all-pro WR and just a very good one..

All-Pros understand passing windows and wouldve settled down in one

i don't think they practice being that wide open and having to take their pick of where to comfortably "settle"

It’s more situational awareness. Great receivers understand that they can’t plant directly behind a defender and expect for it to be an easy throw. Especially in the red zone when the field is already shorten.

Theres a reason why players like Jettas and St Brown get so many receptions, they are great at this. Everything isn’t always just out running or routing your defender.

It’s called finding the “soft spot” in the zone.

Sure but DJ was basically wide open as soon as he broke inside. Caleb had an ~18 yd throw with ~8 yds of cushion; just get it over the D-line/LB with a little touch and it's a TD. No need for CW to have to sling the ball 8ft off the ground past the MLB's ear. Simple throw, very similar to a checkdown pass over a defender to the RB.
I think under normal game conditions Caleb makes the easy touch throw. But everything was so hurry up rush at that point, Caleb sped up the whole process and fired the ball.

[panthermark]

Difference between an all-pro WR and just a very good one..

All-Pros understand passing windows and wouldve settled down in one

i don't think they practice being that wide open and having to take their pick of where to comfortably "settle"

It’s more situational awareness. Great receivers understand that they can’t plant directly behind a defender and expect for it to be an easy throw. Especially in the red zone when the field is already shorten.

Theres a reason why players like Jettas and St Brown get so many receptions, they are great at this. Everything isn’t always just out running or routing your defender.

It’s called finding the “soft spot” in the zone.

That isn't a lack of situation awareness on DJ's part.

Look at the video again.

Look closely at CW. When he comes off of Rome and goes to DJ he starts (and stops) a throwing motion. When CW starts that motion, DJ is still wide open, but that pass has to be where DJ is at because at that moment there is no second window . That pass needed to be between the top of the "A" and "V" in the endzone.

Understand that if DJ keeps flowing to the right, he will run behind the LB that was originally already flowing that direction AND run into more defenders in a compressed field. The play started with two pass catchers on the left and two on the right. If he keeps going he ends up putting three pass catchers in a compressed area.
Cabe actually drifts to the right as well on the play.

The second window isn't created until CW pulls back on the initial throwing motion (again). That freezes Smith....but it also freezes DJ. Note where CW is LOOKING when he finally throws the ball and how he throws.

Rome actually becomes open on the right side as well, but no one knew where the ball was going.

I guess CW was trying to look off the LB?

[Dresden]

Caleb is just dog doo-doo after the first read. Let him have a seven-step drop between the 20s, and he's a serviceable starting QB, but in the red zone against compressed defenses, he's a deer in headlights who needs the running game or a clever Ben Johnson playcall to bail him out. It's why he continues to rack up a respectable amount of passing yards but can't punch it into the end zone.

It's also why be barely ever targets DJ or the tight ends. Unless either of them is his first read, Caleb rarely ever throws to targets with two yards or less separation from their defender, and I can count on one hand how many back shoulder throws Caleb has attempted his entire NFL career.

With the exception of Rome, Caleb has zero faith in his receivers to ever haul in a contested ball, and he has zero faith in the accuracy of his throws. It severely restricts the types of plays that Ben Johnson can call -- the types that require impeccable timing and mailbox accuracy. It's nearly Justin Fields all over again.

DJ is tied for second on the team in targets.

And do you see what type of touches he gets? Handoffs and screens. His ADOT is 8.7, which is the second-lowest of his career, ahead of only last year. So, the two lowest ADOTs of his entire career are with Caleb Williams as his QB. Caleb doesn't look DJ's way past the LoS unless he's his first read, or unless he unavoidably wide-ass-open, like that missed TD pass to end the game.

So what? Rome is having a great year. With this many receivers, there's bound to be guys who don't get the ball as much as they'd like.

[Dresden]

Caleb is just dog doo-doo after the first read. Let him have a seven-step drop between the 20s, and he's a serviceable starting QB, but in the red zone against compressed defenses, he's a deer in headlights who needs the running game or a clever Ben Johnson playcall to bail him out. It's why he continues to rack up a respectable amount of passing yards but can't punch it into the end zone.

It's also why be barely ever targets DJ or the tight ends. Unless either of them is his first read, Caleb rarely ever throws to targets with two yards or less separation from their defender, and I can count on one hand how many back shoulder throws Caleb has attempted his entire NFL career.

With the exception of Rome, Caleb has zero faith in his receivers to ever haul in a contested ball, and he has zero faith in the accuracy of his throws. It severely restricts the types of plays that Ben Johnson can call -- the types that require impeccable timing and mailbox accuracy. It's nearly Justin Fields all over again.

DJ is tied for second on the team in targets.

But it is a fairly large gap for players that have not missed a game, and to be honest, DJ and OZ should not be tied for targets (being that DJ is about twice as productive).

56 - Rome
38 - DJ
38 - OZ
24 - Swift


OZ's career high in targets is 61. He is on pace to blow that away.
DJ's is on pace for the 2nd lowest amount of targets in a year in his career. His lowest was 82, when we was a rookie and it was still a 16 game season. He has had no less than 118 targets every year since.

I agree, it would be nice to see DJ get more looks. Same with Loveland, Burden and Kmet. I'd like to see them pass the ball more in general. A big part of the problem is our running attack has not been good, and when you keep trying to establish the run without results, it creates a lot of 3 and outs, and so fewer overall offensive plays.

I'd like to see a game plan where Caleb throws it 40-45 times. Just to see. I know it's not a good idea long term. But I'd like to see all these guys get more involved in the offense, and I think it would allow Caleb to get into a rhythm more.

[Dresden]

The ACL tear Shemar Turner has is the same leg as his stress fracture/titanium rod insertion, and ankle injury. One has to wonder about that leg. And the wisdom of drafting that leg.

That pick looks like a waste. Even when he played, I never saw him make any plays.

[Dresden]

i don't think they practice being that wide open and having to take their pick of where to comfortably "settle"

It’s more situational awareness. Great receivers understand that they can’t plant directly behind a defender and expect for it to be an easy throw. Especially in the red zone when the field is already shorten.

Theres a reason why players like Jettas and St Brown get so many receptions, they are great at this. Everything isn’t always just out running or routing your defender.

It’s called finding the “soft spot” in the zone.

That isn't a lack of situation awareness on DJ's part.

Look at the video again.

Look closely at CW. When he comes off of Rome and goes to DJ he starts (and stops) a throwing motion. When CW starts that motion, DJ is still wide open, but that pass has to be where DJ is at because at that moment there is no second window . That pass needed to be between the top of the "A" and "V" in the endzone.

Understand that if DJ keeps flowing to the right, he will run behind the LB that was originally already flowing that direction AND run into more defenders in a compressed field. The play started with two pass catchers on the left and two on the right. If he keeps going he ends up putting three pass catchers in a compressed area.
Cabe actually drifts to the right as well on the play.

The second window isn't created until CW pulls back on the initial throwing motion (again). That freezes Smith....but it also freezes DJ. Note where CW is LOOKING when he finally throws the ball and how he throws.

Rome actually becomes open on the right side as well, but no one knew where the ball was going.

I guess CW was trying to look off the LB?

You can only hope that when they go over the film, the coaches can point out to Caleb and to DJ what should have happened there, and how to recognize that next time. These are the kinds of things that some QB's just seem to understand, whereas Caleb doesn't.