Freakonomics: Losing is not a Winning Strategy

[Rerisen]

It will be funny if we do tank, get a lottery pick, and suck next season,

"Still better than being a 2nd round team stuck in NBA hell!"

That will be the response.

And all the easier to then suck again for a pick the next year all over.

[DuckIII]

I don't think the Bulls will blow it up either. However, "blowing it up" and "tanking this season" don't necessarily equate to the same thing.

Trade Deng/Hinrich for crap players and as much future consideration as possible.

The core going into the off-season is now the same as it would be regardless of whether Rose got hurt, stayed healthy or anything else. We'd have the same base players entering 2014/15 as we would in any other circumstance.

The only difference is now the Bulls are guaranteed to miss the playoffs and will likely select in the top nine of the draft and possibly get another 1st rounder to help build in the future as well.

I don't understand the case where the Bulls come out ahead by doing something else. This is the Spurs sucking when David Robinson got hurt and then drafting Tim Duncan or the Bulls having a poor record without Jordan and then drafting Scottie Pippen. The core going forward is going to be the same either way. The only difference is whether you're adding 3 1sts with one of them being top nine or two firsts both in the teens.

The team should project back to win more than 50 games the following season either way, but one scenario clearly has vastly more upside to it than the other.

Very good post as it's important to draw the distinction between blowing it up and tanking without blowing it up.

Totally agree. Doug sums up my view of the matter perfectly. Again, our circumstances are unique. General historical data really doesn't have much application to the rationale.

[donaldtrump_00]

Do people not realize that we still have Derrick Rose? As long as he can come back and be somewhat close to his former MVP self this team will not suck for a long time. Not to mention the kid Mirotic will be another talented young player coming over next year as well. He's essentially a top 10 draft talent. I don't get this notion that tanking is somehow a bad strategy for this team. Name me a better alternative?

I don't get why people are thinking Rose is done.

He'll come back FINE imo.

I don't think Rose is "done" by any stretch. I also don't think he's going to be the MVP caliber player he was prior to both injuries. If he returns to top-5, top-10 player in the NBA form, fantastic. Until I see it though, I'm operating on the assumption that that scenario is really wishful thinking.

wishful thinking is u thinking hes not going to be the same player. this latest injury is just a set back. its not lingering. im sure u heard that about 1000 times yet u come on here and type that mess. he will be back next season mvp version and hopefully Jabari parker is on the team with him or wiggins. he already proved to the front office he is fully back from the acl injury. just needed extended time to shake off the rust. and will have the same situation next season also. until then pray for parker/wiggins and stop thinking about another persons injury like u paying anything for his surgery.

[Rerisen]

Totally agree. Doug sums up my view of the matter perfectly. Again, our circumstances are unique. General historical data really doesn't have much application to the rationale.

I think the data is more a warning for the more extreme positions of nuking.

I don't think trading Deng is necessarily 'losing on purpose' if the team knows he is gone anyway. That's called being smart.

But trading away other talent core pieces with very vague goals other than 'moving up the lottery farther' I would call losing on purpose. Sabotaging your own future for a ping pong ball.

Even if this were not some talent rich draft, it would still make sense to get something for Deng now, if he was going to walk for nothing in the summer. It's a move that is understandable as an independent action, even apart the draft. Esp as we aren't contending this year without Rose. Which was the key thing preventing us doing the same with Asik a few years back.

[SteveDobbs]

It all sounds good and simple on paper to replace Deng, Nazr, Kirk and Boozer with Mirotic and 3 late lottery picks, but it's likely a temporary step backwards if not a permanent one over what we could be keep more of the core intact and just adding Mirotic and one or 2 first rounders.

I agree its likely a step backward at least a few years, but that will happen regardless if Deng is not in the realistic plans going forward. And it seems by all we have read, its leaning like he's not.

But yeah, people that are pretending Rose + a 5-10 pick + Mirotic is an instant contender again is fantasy land (if you have lost Noah, Gibson, etc).

A player in that range is not likely to even be as good as Deng for a couple years, if ever. Mirotic is likely to need a few years to learn the league. By the time those 2 assets mature, is Rose wanting out?

Then you've blown up your team prematurely just to have a new core of Nikola Mirotic, and the next Luol Deng or Ben Gordon (3rd and 7th picks respectively), while having lost your superstar. Sounds like a 10 year rebuilder to me.

I don't think that team is an instant contender, but I think one where you keep Noah, Gibson and Jimmy and trade Deng, Booz and maybe Kirk + MDJ for picks is closer to a contender than one where you keep Deng long-term.

We might take a step back next year, but I think it's incredibly foolish to construct a team around Derrick Rose as your ultimate #1 option moving forward. One of Deng or Noah (obviously along with Carlos) has to leave IMO.

[DuckIII]

Totally agree. Doug sums up my view of the matter perfectly. Again, our circumstances are unique. General historical data really doesn't have much application to the rationale.

I think the data is more a warning for the more extreme positions of nuking.

I don't think trading Deng is necessarily 'losing on purpose' if the team knows he is gone anyway. That's called being smart.

But trading away other talent core pieces with very vague goals other than 'moving up the lottery farther' I would call losing on purpose. Sabotaging your own future for a ping pong ball.

Even if this were not some talent rich draft, it would still make sense to get something for Deng now, if he was going to walk for nothing in the summer. It's a move that is understandable as an independent action, even apart the draft. Esp as we aren't contending this year without Rose. Which was the key thing preventing us doing the same with Asik a few years back.

I don't really disagree with your post. I'm a strong advocate of trading Deng now not only to get something rather than nothing, but also because I believe doing so substantially weakens the team for a one year tank. I think if you take Deng off this team, it falls apart. I'd also explore other moves as well, but not to just jettison guys for absolutely nothing in the hopes forming one of the worst rosters in the league.

My tank plan doesn't contemplate getting anywhere near the top of the lottery barring a 1.7% miracle. But I do want that shot.

[League Circles]

I don't really disagree with your post. I'm a strong advocate of trading Deng, as I believe doing so substantially weakens the team for a one year tank. I'd also explore other moves as well, but not to just jettison guys for absolutely nothing in the hopes forming one of the worst rosters in the league.

My tank plan doesn't contemplate getting anywhere near the top of the lottery barring a 1.7% miracle. But I do want that shot.

As a fellow big Deng fan, I've got to ask you, do you want to deal Deng only within the context of believing he's gone anyway? Or would you rather resign him? Or is it mostly all about the tank and you think dealing him is wiser than dealing some combo of Noah, Taj, Boozer, etc to achieve the same tanking goal? Just trying to figure out which angle you're coming at this from.

Personally, I think we could tank just as effectively as we would by trading Deng by simply trading Hinrich. Teague and James playing point would lead 4 all-stars to a horrific record!

What I want is pretty simple, barring unusual trade opportunities:

1) dump Kirk
2) play Teague
3) try to deal Boozer for something that makes sense cause otherwise I'd like to....
4) extend Deng
5) amnesty Boozer
6) bring Mirotic + rookies with our pick and Bobcats pick if applicable
7) bring BAE player
8) win titles

[McBulls]

The odds of winning an NBA championship are 30:1.

That means the Bulls are statistically due to win another championship sometime after 2150, when everyone on this board will be dead.

A strategy of using draft picks to develop a championship team maximizes the random nature of the attempt. It is essentially mindless, but...it is the cheaper way to go.

A better approach is to keep winning teams as much as possible, and hope that a Mirotic, a Charlotte pick, a winning trade, or a mid-late round pick adds that Je ne se qua to the team that puts them over the top. It is a strategy that has worked for San Antonio, and it hasn't cost them much either.

What you don't do is deliberately make a pretty good team bad. That digs a hole that only statistics can get you out of.

[Rerisen]

I don't really disagree with your post. I'm a strong advocate of trading Deng now not only to get something rather than nothing, but also because I believe doing so substantially weakens the team for a one year tank. I think if you take Deng off this team, it falls apart. I'd also explore other moves as well, but not to just jettison guys for absolutely nothing in the hopes forming one of the worst rosters in the league.

My tank plan doesn't contemplate getting anywhere near the top of the lottery barring a 1.7% miracle. But I do want that shot.

I'm at the same place essentially. And I actually think a majority of this fanbase is on the same page, but that somehow because of who is actively rooting for wins or losses in game threads - which is not necessarily tied to their long term view of the situation - there is a lot of confusion and misunderstanding about where true positions lie.

People need to chill out in the game threads and read more of these foundational belief threads, and we would probably have less sniping and divisiveness all around here.

[DuckIII]

I don't really disagree with your post. I'm a strong advocate of trading Deng, as I believe doing so substantially weakens the team for a one year tank. I'd also explore other moves as well, but not to just jettison guys for absolutely nothing in the hopes forming one of the worst rosters in the league.

My tank plan doesn't contemplate getting anywhere near the top of the lottery barring a 1.7% miracle. But I do want that shot.

As a fellow big Deng fan, I've got to ask you, do you want to deal Deng only within the context of believing he's gone anyway? Or would you rather resign him?

I don't know anymore. Before Rose went down, I strongly advocated bringing him back even at $14 million unless you had an actual, different plan that would improve the Bulls. Because letting Deng walk for nothing clearly makes the Bulls worse.

Now with Rose's injury happening so early in the season, and this unique draft class, I just don't know. My belief is that he's gone regardless, so that makes my view easy to settle on. Trade him, get something for him, get worse short term, increase the value of your draft asset.

But if I believed the Bulls would actually resign him? I don't know. But I don't believe that, so its not really all that important anyway.

[IvgenyIAS]

It will be funny if we do tank, get a lottery pick, and suck next season,

Why funny? It would be great because we'll be able to tank next year as well. Rose will probably be rusty coming back after missing 2 years so we're not going to win anyway, might as well tank next year too. The best case scenario will probably be if Rose never regained his past form because it would allow us to tank after next year as well. You know the definition of insanity, right? Well, we've made the playoffs for 8 of the past 9 seasons and we still weren't able to win a title, maybe it's time to change our tactics and try winning a title without making the playoffs.

[DJhitek]

I don't really disagree with your post. I'm a strong advocate of trading Deng now not only to get something rather than nothing, but also because I believe doing so substantially weakens the team for a one year tank. I think if you take Deng off this team, it falls apart. I'd also explore other moves as well, but not to just jettison guys for absolutely nothing in the hopes forming one of the worst rosters in the league.

My tank plan doesn't contemplate getting anywhere near the top of the lottery barring a 1.7% miracle. But I do want that shot.

I agree, but I'll be honest. I'd gauge what Noah's value is around the league and evaluate what I could get for him.

[dice]

It will be funny if we do tank, get a lottery pick, and suck next season,

Why funny? It would be great because we'll be able to tank next year as well. Rose will probably be rusty coming back after missing 2 years so we're not going to win anyway, might as well tank next year too. The best case scenario will probably be if Rose never regained his past form because it would allow us to tank after next year as well. You know the definition of insanity, right? Well, we've made the playoffs for 8 of the past 9 seasons and we still weren't able to win a title, maybe it's time to change our tactics and try winning a title without making the playoffs.

i have to assume you're being sarcastic, but i'm not entirely sure

[Rerisen]

It will be funny if we do tank, get a lottery pick, and suck next season,

Why funny? It would be great because we'll be able to tank next year as well.

i have to assume you're being sarcastic, but i'm not entirely sure

^ We seem to have a lot of little Pat Riley's here. That are just miserable the entire year even if the Bulls are winning 60 games, but falling short in the playoffs.

It's hard for me to square the idea that you are a fan of a certain team, but if they don't win the title, every single year is the same entertainment and enjoyment level regardless if you are winning 60 games a year or losing 60 games a year. I've been through the latter scneario with the post dynasty broken up Bulls, and it is not fun or easy to reconcile that "hey we can just tank again this year!"

Not unless you are some type of utterly casual fan, that can easily write a team off for a year and just switch to watching another sport or something.

[DuckIII]

I don't really disagree with your post. I'm a strong advocate of trading Deng now not only to get something rather than nothing, but also because I believe doing so substantially weakens the team for a one year tank. I think if you take Deng off this team, it falls apart. I'd also explore other moves as well, but not to just jettison guys for absolutely nothing in the hopes forming one of the worst rosters in the league.

My tank plan doesn't contemplate getting anywhere near the top of the lottery barring a 1.7% miracle. But I do want that shot.

I agree, but I'll be honest. I'd gauge what Noah's value is around the league and evaluate what I could get for him.

I would as well. And I'd probably do the same with everyone on the roster just to get a sense of things. Its just the Deng is the only one I consider it vital to trade now.

[dice]

^ We seem to have a lot of little Pat Riley's here. That are just miserable the entire year even if the Bulls are winning 60 games, but falling short in the playoffs.

It's hard for me to square the idea that you are a fan of a certain team, but if they don't win the title, every single year is the same entertainment and enjoyment level regardless if you are winning 60 games a year or losing 60 games a year. I've been through the latter scneario with the post dynasty broken up Bulls, and it is not fun or easy to reconcile that "hey we can just tank again this year!"

Not unless you are some type of utterly casual fan, that can easily write a team off for a year and just switch to watching another sport or something.

the way i figure it, if you're following a highly competitive team you get 8 months of quality entertainment. even if losing your last game makes you fester for 4 months it's worth it. losing year after year in an attempt to eventually avoid that 4 month down period seems silly

the florida/miami marlins have won 2 titles in their 20 years of existence. but i don't envy anyone who has attempted to be a diehard fan since their inception. on the flip side of that, i'll take the bulls of the early '70s anyday

i didn't watch the bulls at all in-between the last title team and the skiles era. no reason to

[League Circles]

To me, there are two distinctly different parts of being a fan in the way I am a fan.

One way is to enjoy the team competing and succeeding in that competition. For me, this is increased with every win, regular season or playoffs, and doesn't decrease based on playoff failure (during the ensuing summer months - meaning a finals loss wouldn't make my summer any harder than a first round loss).

The other way is enjoying, basically, RealGM. The strategy discussions and thoughts about how to improve the team in the present and future. This way is also largely not affected plus or minus by how good the team actually is, because I'm always trying to figure out how to best move forward.

The only thing that really affects my enjoyment is that an active draft and FA period makes the offseason a little more interesting or at least gives us a little more to discuss or get excited about.

[Action Paxson]

When you consider you still have Derrick Rose, tanking is not that risky.

Even if you trade Deng and Noah, and amnesty Boozer then you are left with Derrick Rose, Nikola Mirotic, Jimmy Butler, Taj Gibson, and Tony Snell as your core moving forward + whatever you get for Deng and Noah. Then you could conceivably have $10M+ in cap space.

Let's just look at you bare bones rotation if the Bulls were to blow it up.

C-_________/___________
PF-Mirotic/Gibson
SF-Butler/Snell
SG-_________/Snell
PG-Rose/__________

Keep in mind, that does not include any return for Noah and Deng, which would be significant. It also doesn't include any draft picks, which could also be significant.

To me this draft has 6 elite prospects (Embiid and Smart are just a touch below the big 4, but still excellent). In addition to that, there are several more guys that would be top 5 candidates in most other drafts. The Bulls were sent a blessing in disguise, and it would be a travesty if they didn't take advantage.

[MalcolmXing]

I posted a similar study, and odds a couple times in past threads discussing it. Tanking is most likely to just make you suck for a long time. But w/e, if people chanting "Jabari" after every loss helps them get through this tough year, more power to them.

Luckily I don't think there is any fear of the Bulls actually totally blowing it up, and if they did, most likely people would just have to chant a new name each successive year that we continued to be bad as a result of it.

The study is trivial, how often does a number 1 draft picking team already have stars in place and a proven coach?

This article holds no merit

[coldfish]

OK, let's look at the situation:
- If the Bulls don't do anything, they will lose either Boozer or Deng or both this offseason and then come back with a worse team again next year. Beyond that, Rose is probably going to be ultra rusty next year and if he makes it to the playoffs, they will be his first since 2011. Basically the "stand pat" route is a bad idea.

- If the Bulls do little, like trade Deng for a pick or prospect, it really doesn't change much from the first option. You are going to have a much worse team being lead by a rusty star. Furthermore, Deng is the culture and just dumping him pushes you a little closer towards the losing culture mentality that tank treadmill teams acquire. People drastically underestimate what Luol means to the team. You aren't going to get a top pick by doing this either. Too many bad teams. Basically, the "trade Deng and don't do much else" route is a bad idea.

- If the Bulls burn it to the ground, you might end up getting a top 5 pick. You completely destroy the culture though and probably lose Thibodeau. Young players don't win in this league and if you fill your roster with them, you get a guaranteed loser with not much hope. Basically, the "tear it down" tank route is a bad idea.

This is fundamentally my issue. There are no good solutions right now. Maybe one of these ideas is a "least bad" scenario but I don't understand the happiness that people show when pursuing it. The Bulls are probably screwed no matter what direction they go.

Fish, you're stuck because you are looking at everything from the 50th percentile. In other words, if all the unknowns come in dead-square on their statistical probabilities, you're right...the Bulls are more or less screwed. An alternative is to inject some level of optimism.

With optimism the full-tankers can see the Bulls not only getting a high lottery pick, but the player they select turns out to be the best of the lot. With optimism, tankers and non-tankers can find a common ground in believing that Rose will not be rusty...he'll be great and in fairly short order. With optimism, Mirotic will be all that and a slice of cheese. With optimism, key players stay healthy.

I also tend to be a realist. However, from time to time, I find a little sip of Kool Aid is needed to get me through the day.

OK, let's go with optimism. I'll flesh out the "do nothing" plan.

Chicago holds onto Deng and resigns him to a deal that makes everyone here puke.
Chicago amnesties Boozer, allowing them to use the MLE.
Chicago signs Mirotic with that
Chicago gets the Charlotte pick at #15 and selects a combo guard
Chicago gets its own pick at #14 and selects a center

Team
Rose / Combo guy taken at 15
Butler / Snell
Deng / Dunleavey
Mirotic / Gibson
Noah / center taken at 14

I challenge people to put together a realistic team likely better than that over the remainder of Rose's contract. The "do nothing" plan is probably the best one. If you are optimistic, then Rose comes back well, Mirotic is a stud and the draft picks contribute in limited minutes.

The full on tank plan requires you to burn the roster to the ground. Even if it nets you a top 3 pick, then you likely have to spend years training that guy and rebuilding the roster. You probably lose Thibodeau in the process. The full on tank plan is the worst plan.