OT Bears 2019/20 season

[Susan]

Our defense has been underwhelming thus far. Calvin Ridley will be talked about as a top WR by seasons end if not sooner. Julios impact is self explanatory. Gurly is off to a nice start. This defense needs to get back to top 5 form now if they don’t want to get blown out this week.

Falcons defense has been bad and this week will be another one for Mitch to continue to build confidence and get more consistent.

I think the defense will need to keep the falcons under 30 for us to have a shot. If the bears win I think they beat the colts via a dominant performance from the defense and start 4-0 which I’m pretty sure no one thought that would happen. However I don’t think Mitch will be able to keep up with the falcons offense

They're 6th in defensive DVOA thus far.

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/nfl/team-defense/2020

[patryk7754]

I think two things NEED to happen in the next two games. 1. Go at least 1-1 2. Find consistency on both sides of the ball.

After the colts game we play TB, NO, CAR, LAR, and TEN. We could easily go 1-4 in those games. Probably underdogs in each game but the panthers game and if Mcaffrey comes back then they could beat us too. And then after that we have 5 division games including the packers twice and the Texans.

[patryk7754]

Our defense has been underwhelming thus far. Calvin Ridley will be talked about as a top WR by seasons end if not sooner. Julios impact is self explanatory. Gurly is off to a nice start. This defense needs to get back to top 5 form now if they don’t want to get blown out this week.

Falcons defense has been bad and this week will be another one for Mitch to continue to build confidence and get more consistent.

I think the defense will need to keep the falcons under 30 for us to have a shot. If the bears win I think they beat the colts via a dominant performance from the defense and start 4-0 which I’m pretty sure no one thought that would happen. However I don’t think Mitch will be able to keep up with the falcons offense

They're 6th in defensive DVOA thus far.

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/nfl/team-defense/2020

The lions moved the ball pretty easily until the end of the game but then again on the last drive. The giants didn’t light it up but in the second half they got back into it.

This is going to be by far the best offense they see so far.

[dice]

Our defense has been underwhelming thus far. Calvin Ridley will be talked about as a top WR by seasons end if not sooner. Julios impact is self explanatory. Gurly is off to a nice start. This defense needs to get back to top 5 form now if they don’t want to get blown out this week.

Falcons defense has been bad and this week will be another one for Mitch to continue to build confidence and get more consistent.

I think the defense will need to keep the falcons under 30 for us to have a shot. If the bears win I think they beat the colts via a dominant performance from the defense and start 4-0 which I’m pretty sure no one thought that would happen. However I don’t think Mitch will be able to keep up with the falcons offense

They're 6th in defensive DVOA thus far.

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/nfl/team-defense/2020

doesn't factor in strength of opposition until after week 4, though. and opponent offenses have been below average so far

[dice]

I understand that everyone is all excited about Trubisky and the offense, but I've been less than excited about the defense. I think Jaylon Johnson has been a pleasant surprise, but in the first 2 gams there have been lots of times when the Bears supposedly elite defense could have taken over the game against inferior offenses and they didn't. The Bears need to be better on both sides.

Quinn, Mack and Hicks are going to take a minute to ramp up. Trevathan should get a bit better as the season goes along.

Fuller has been elite, Roquan I haven't seen any numbers on, Eddie Jackson is a pro-bowler year in year out.

No preseason games.

neither did the opponents

[dice]

Super duper early but SF losing their entire team makes me think they're going to have a hard regression.

GB/Dallas/NO/Seattle/LAR/Arizona/Bears/TB are the clear playoff contenders.

Philly/Minn/Detroit/SF/Carolina/Washington/Giants all suck. Atlanta might suck.

Yeah... Bears are not clear playoff contenders.

There's 8-9 teams that are clearly better than the rest of the NFC. Starting 2-0 and avoiding major injuries is a pretty good start.

To say that the Bears are not clearly contending for a playoff spot when there's 7 slots this year and the rest of the NFC is looking really bad, dunno what to tell ya man.

i think this is a semantics argument. are the bears clear playoff contenders TODAY? of course. because they're 2-0. they're 9th in odds to win the conference w/ 7 playoff spots. that's a clear contender. are they FUNDAMENTALLY a clear playoff contender as a team? not necessarily. they certainly haven't played like a playoff team and they could conceivably fall out of the race very quickly. we'll see

[JohnnyKILLroy]

Quinn, Mack and Hicks are going to take a minute to ramp up. Trevathan should get a bit better as the season goes along.

Fuller has been elite, Roquan I haven't seen any numbers on, Eddie Jackson is a pro-bowler year in year out.

No preseason games.

neither did the opponents

True but this season is unique and there could be several factors. I’m ok with seeing positives progression to an very good defense over the next few games.

[nomorezorro]

it's pretty funny that the corners have felt like the strength of our defense this year so far

i'm doing this all based on very, very uninformed armchair analysis but my thoughts watching the defense has generally been mediocre line/edge play*, bad linebackers, pretty good secondary. it feels like the defense is designed to be heavily reliant on pressure/turnovers or else teams can stack up medium gains all the way down the field, and we haven't at all consistently generated that pressure. we haven't been lit up in the first two games but i would be shocked if we can stop an actual competent offense next week

*i might have unrealistically high expectations for the line because i have basically zero confidence in our ability to defend the middle right now. trevaithan looks cooked and roquan hasn't really stood out.

[Susan]

Read on Twitter

[fleet]

The True-bisky

The early progress report on Trubisky: Needs improvement.

He was magnificent in the fourth quarter against the Lions and first half against the Giants but brutally bad otherwise. His 92.7 passer rating is 17th in the NFL, and the Bears are 29th in passing yardage.


After an offseason of Nagy demanding he be better and Trubisky vowing to do so, the upgrade has been minimal.

His 59.4 completion percentage — down four points from last season and seven from 2018 — is particularly alarming. While there have been issues with the wide receivers, including Anthony Miller’s erratic play and one off game by Allen Robinson, film review shows Trubisky’s throws have been accurate only 57% of the time.

The Bears’ offensive headway — they’re No. 22 in scoring, up from No. 29 last season — is largely due to their galvanized ground game. Their 284 rushing yards over the first two games are more than they had in any two consecutive games last season, and they’re 11th in the NFL at 4.7 yards per carry.

“We’ve been able to run the ball; in the passing game, we’ve gotta be better,” Robinson said. “We’ve gotta make more tough catches, gotta run crisper routes.”


And make sharper throws. And block better. It all factors into the Bears’ inconsistent passing and middling performance on third downs. They’re 19th in the NFL with 40.7% conversions, and Trubisky has completed only 54.5% of his passes

[dougthonus]

They're 6th in defensive DVOA thus far.

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/nfl/team-defense/2020

DVOA doesn't take into account opponent quality until after week 4.

Whether it turns out to be true or not, many people feel the Bears didn't play good offenses and that their defense will look a lot worse once the strength of opponent improves. Not necessarily sure the Lions/Giants are at the bottom of the NFL in offense, but I would expect them to be somewhere between the bottom and the middle (particularly with Giants without Barkley).

[Chi town]

The True-bisky

The early progress report on Trubisky: Needs improvement.

He was magnificent in the fourth quarter against the Lions and first half against the Giants but brutally bad otherwise. His 92.7 passer rating is 17th in the NFL, and the Bears are 29th in passing yardage.


After an offseason of Nagy demanding he be better and Trubisky vowing to do so, the upgrade has been minimal.

His 59.4 completion percentage — down four points from last season and seven from 2018 — is particularly alarming. While there have been issues with the wide receivers, including Anthony Miller’s erratic play and one off game by Allen Robinson, film review shows Trubisky’s throws have been accurate only 57% of the time.

The Bears’ offensive headway — they’re No. 22 in scoring, up from No. 29 last season — is largely due to their galvanized ground game. Their 284 rushing yards over the first two games are more than they had in any two consecutive games last season, and they’re 11th in the NFL at 4.7 yards per carry.

“We’ve been able to run the ball; in the passing game, we’ve gotta be better,” Robinson said. “We’ve gotta make more tough catches, gotta run crisper routes.”


And make sharper throws. And block better. It all factors into the Bears’ inconsistent passing and middling performance on third downs. They’re 19th in the NFL with 40.7% conversions, and Trubisky has completed only 54.5% of his passes

Things would look quite a bit different had Miller caught that TD instead of dropping it and Robinson had not misplayed two balls that became INTs.

Nonetheless, Mitch has been about average which is huge. Sad to say. If he can continue to slowly improve and stay average Bears will be in the playoffs and they have enough playmakers where anything could happen.

[dice]

The True-bisky

The early progress report on Trubisky: Needs improvement.

He was magnificent in the fourth quarter against the Lions and first half against the Giants but brutally bad otherwise. His 92.7 passer rating is 17th in the NFL, and the Bears are 29th in passing yardage.


After an offseason of Nagy demanding he be better and Trubisky vowing to do so, the upgrade has been minimal.

His 59.4 completion percentage — down four points from last season and seven from 2018 — is particularly alarming. While there have been issues with the wide receivers, including Anthony Miller’s erratic play and one off game by Allen Robinson, film review shows Trubisky’s throws have been accurate only 57% of the time.

it's that accuracy thing that's concerning. but unsurprising given that that's been his issue in the past. and it's almost as innate as arm strength. all the practice in the world isn't likely to help substantially

[dougthonus]

The True-bisky

The early progress report on Trubisky: Needs improvement.

He was magnificent in the fourth quarter against the Lions and first half against the Giants but brutally bad otherwise. His 92.7 passer rating is 17th in the NFL, and the Bears are 29th in passing yardage.


After an offseason of Nagy demanding he be better and Trubisky vowing to do so, the upgrade has been minimal.

His 59.4 completion percentage — down four points from last season and seven from 2018 — is particularly alarming. While there have been issues with the wide receivers, including Anthony Miller’s erratic play and one off game by Allen Robinson, film review shows Trubisky’s throws have been accurate only 57% of the time.

it's that accuracy thing that's concerning. but unsurprising given that that's been his issue in the past. and it's almost as innate as arm strength. all the practice in the world isn't likely to help substantially

It's without context. Where does that rate compared to other QBs? How is it rated? How does it compare to last year? It sounds really bad, maybe it is really bad, but without having any baseline on Mitch's past numbers or the numbers of other QBs it doesn't have much meaning.

[dice]

The True-bisky

it's that accuracy thing that's concerning. but unsurprising given that that's been his issue in the past. and it's almost as innate as arm strength. all the practice in the world isn't likely to help substantially

It's without context. Where does that rate compared to other QBs? How is it rated? How does it compare to last year? It sounds really bad, maybe it is really bad, but without having any baseline on Mitch's past numbers or the numbers of other QBs it doesn't have much meaning.

i was responding based on my knowledge that 57% accuracy for an nfl quarterback is poor. and the writer of the article is obviously indicating that as well ("only 57%")

for comparison's sake, drew brees was the most accurate QB in football over the last 2 seasons at 68.6% combined

and regarding his issues with accuracy in general:

"In 2019, [trubisky] missed too many passes, ranking among the league’s worst in negatively graded throws, and he ranks in the bottom third in catchable-pass rate."

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-quarterback-rankings-all-32-starters-entering-the-2020-nfl-season

[fleet]

The True-bisky

it's that accuracy thing that's concerning. but unsurprising given that that's been his issue in the past. and it's almost as innate as arm strength. all the practice in the world isn't likely to help substantially

It's without context. Where does that rate compared to other QBs? How is it rated? How does it compare to last year? It sounds really bad, maybe it is really bad, but without having any baseline on Mitch's past numbers or the numbers of other QBs it doesn't have much meaning.

I don't know about that stat in the article as far as relativity, but run the accuracy categories on this chart (hint, 4 far right side columns once you click on accuracy), and it's not a pretty picture. If you're curious about drops, Bears receivers actually have a relatively good number.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2020/passing_advanced.htm

2020 Trubisky:

# Bad throws. 4th worst
% of bad throws per pass attempt. 2nd worst
# On target throws. 26th
% On target throws per pass attempt. Worst
% of passes dropped per pass attempt. 29th best

[fleet]

The True-bisky

The early progress report on Trubisky: Needs improvement.

He was magnificent in the fourth quarter against the Lions and first half against the Giants but brutally bad otherwise. His 92.7 passer rating is 17th in the NFL, and the Bears are 29th in passing yardage.


After an offseason of Nagy demanding he be better and Trubisky vowing to do so, the upgrade has been minimal.

His 59.4 completion percentage — down four points from last season and seven from 2018 — is particularly alarming. While there have been issues with the wide receivers, including Anthony Miller’s erratic play and one off game by Allen Robinson, film review shows Trubisky’s throws have been accurate only 57% of the time.

it's that accuracy thing that's concerning. but unsurprising given that that's been his issue in the past. and it's almost as innate as arm strength. all the practice in the world isn't likely to help substantially

Gauging progress over the last 3 seasons, his completion percentage declined 4 points from last season, 7 points from the year before. Small sample size. Then again, we are talking about the Lions and Giants. Trying to figure out if Trubisky is actually more accurate, not really not yet. Running game should help a lot. Nagy better run the ball against good defenses.

[dougthonus]

it's that accuracy thing that's concerning. but unsurprising given that that's been his issue in the past. and it's almost as innate as arm strength. all the practice in the world isn't likely to help substantially

It's without context. Where does that rate compared to other QBs? How is it rated? How does it compare to last year? It sounds really bad, maybe it is really bad, but without having any baseline on Mitch's past numbers or the numbers of other QBs it doesn't have much meaning.

i was responding based on my knowledge that 57% accuracy for an nfl quarterback is poor. and the writer of the article is obviously indicating that as well ("only 57%")

for comparison's sake, drew brees was the most accurate QB in football over the last 2 seasons at 68.6% combined

and regarding his issues with accuracy in general:

"In 2019, [trubisky] missed too many passes, ranking among the league’s worst in negatively graded throws, and he ranks in the bottom third in catchable-pass rate."

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-quarterback-rankings-all-32-starters-entering-the-2020-nfl-season

I mean I expect that is true watching him play, but would be interesting to see the numbers compared to others.

[Susan]

Santos needs to go.

[Jeffster81]

Santos needs to go.

He's here until Eddy is healthy.