Pick retention tracking thread

[kodo]

However!

Instead of canning the GarPax regime, there could’ve easily been this conversation:

Reinsdorfs: “GarPax, we need to shift our strategy because this isn’t working. We need to get back to winning, and now. If you can’t start to turn this around in the next two seasons, we’re going to need to change direction from you.”

GarPax: “Aye aye, Cap’n!!!”

Not that crazy. Under orders to win, or else - any FO is going to make riskier decisions.

No such conversation was needed. There was interview with Paxson a few years ago and he stated he flatly hated tanking, doesn't believe in it, and was glad the Bulls would never tank again (this was years ago so our best player would have been Lauri). He made it sound like the entire "rebuild" was something he was never onboard with. The new lottery odds were a topic, and Paxson said he 100% supported the decision, which was strange given the Bulls situation at the time.

This is why I don't believe tanking will ever work for Chicago without the org being wiped clean and 100% replaced. Half the league is losing or "tanking," to actually produce results from tanking you have to out-tank half the league. Just losing a lot of games with a bad roster is not a strategy. Only Hinkie & Presti have really done strategic tanking, where they were/are taking active steps to truly build through the draft. Everyone else is just losing because they have a bad team, which I would say is just normal.

[Am2626]

Those who are b*tchin about whether we have a 1 in 4 or 1 in 5 chance of keeping our pick this year should be happy. We keep next year's pick now and you can complain all season that the Bulls didn't tank enough.

It’s not so much as the Bulls dropping from 26% to 20% as it is allowing the Kings and Pelicans the opportunity to increase their odds. I believe that 1 of the Bulls, Kings, and Pelicans are going to move up into the top 4. If it ends up being the Kings or Pelicans while the Bulls end up losing their pick that is really going to suck.

The coin flip is pretty much irrelevant for the Bulls because they won’t keep their pick if they don’t land in the top 4. All 3 of the Kings, Bulls, and Pelicans will have the same 20% odds regardless of which team wins the coin flip. You could even argue that it would be better for the Bulls to lose the coin flip so that the pick going to Orlando would fall in the 10-12 range if it doesn’t go to the Bulls.