Josh Giddey - Conundrum Killer

[League Circles]

To this last point, I also agree he could be a good bench leader type and occasionally provide a change of pace when a starting unit offense is struggling, but because the Bulls have no clear identifiable core pieces (top 3 guys on a contender), I think even if we could sign Giddey to a long term fair 6th man type deal, which I doubt we can, I doubt I'd want to because it puts the cart before the horse. Teams can't be doing long term commitments to non core guys when they suck and don't have those core guys already IMO. Only way I'd currently want to keep Giddey is to play a 6th man role but at like 9th man money, if that makes sense.

One of the things I noted earlier in the thread is that I would overpay Giddey to take a two year deal, assuming we are able to shed the veteran salaries we are trying to shed. That would permit us to evaluate him in a better context with no real long term risk. Its an option I could live with.

This sounds a lot more reasonable. My thought is there's no way at this present point to even evaluate his defense fairly, moving into an entirely new defensive system is not easy for young players. Having Vuc as the last line of defense makes it even worse, half of defense nowadays is forcing your defense into the help defense, not just staying in front of him. I keep seeing him playing in the NBa for 4 years basically means we should ignore his age, which doesn't make sense. NBA experience is great, but skills are learned over time and in practice, probably far more than 20-30 minutes of game time. That's when you use the skills, not learn them. His skill level should be compared to other 22 year olds, not just other 4 year vets. There are skills learned playing 2-4 years in college too.

It's just odd that people seem to think he's peaked already when he hasn't even come close to his physical peak yet, yet alone skill peak. If he had been putting up 8, 4, and 4 with bad defense for four years, I'd understand more, but he's put up some pretty impressive numbers, regardless of position. There are more efficient players putting up that 8, 4, and 4 with good defense, are they really more valuable? Especially long-term. Again, his defense, especially if he changes positions, is almost certainly going to be better than it is now. His offensive skills will almost inevitably improve as well, he's barely an adult. If we had judged Coby on his age 22 year, he might not be here. Most people here would definitely been against him getting mid-level. They would have been wrong. He's probably WORSE guarding 6'8 players than Giddey is guarding smaller players, lol. I know in todays NBA PF's are supposed to be able to guard point guards, but that's usually going to be a problem, and vice versa.

Is Giddey really even guarding opposing guards that much? Most of the time when I'm watching him he's been guarding a forward, which he obviously should considering he's a slow footed 6'-8" player, which is probably why the Bulls call him a forward lol.

Skills and the projected pace of skill development isn't the problem with Giddey. His problems really boil down to this:

1. He's not an NBA level athlete, even as a 6'-8" forward. His lateral agility and jumping ability is poor.
2. He has a terribly slow, ugly as hell jump shot that no one respects.

Other than that there really aren't any problems with him, but those are two really red flags in terms of the prospects of him becoming a lead player on a contender.

[Infinity2152]

One of the things I noted earlier in the thread is that I would overpay Giddey to take a two year deal, assuming we are able to shed the veteran salaries we are trying to shed. That would permit us to evaluate him in a better context with no real long term risk. Its an option I could live with.

This sounds a lot more reasonable. My thought is there's no way at this present point to even evaluate his defense fairly, moving into an entirely new defensive system is not easy for young players. Having Vuc as the last line of defense makes it even worse, half of defense nowadays is forcing your defense into the help defense, not just staying in front of him. I keep seeing him playing in the NBa for 4 years basically means we should ignore his age, which doesn't make sense. NBA experience is great, but skills are learned over time and in practice, probably far more than 20-30 minutes of game time. That's when you use the skills, not learn them. His skill level should be compared to other 22 year olds, not just other 4 year vets. There are skills learned playing 2-4 years in college too.

It's just odd that people seem to think he's peaked already when he hasn't even come close to his physical peak yet, yet alone skill peak. If he had been putting up 8, 4, and 4 with bad defense for four years, I'd understand more, but he's put up some pretty impressive numbers, regardless of position. There are more efficient players putting up that 8, 4, and 4 with good defense, are they really more valuable? Especially long-term. Again, his defense, especially if he changes positions, is almost certainly going to be better than it is now. His offensive skills will almost inevitably improve as well, he's barely an adult. If we had judged Coby on his age 22 year, he might not be here. Most people here would definitely been against him getting mid-level. They would have been wrong. He's probably WORSE guarding 6'8 players than Giddey is guarding smaller players, lol. I know in todays NBA PF's are supposed to be able to guard point guards, but that's usually going to be a problem, and vice versa.

Is Giddey really even guarding opposing guards that much? Most of the time when I'm watching him he's been guarding a forward, which he obviously should considering he's a slow footed 6'-8" player, which is probably why the Bulls call him a forward lol.

Skills and the projected pace of skill development isn't the problem with Giddey. His problems really boil down to this:

1. He's not an NBA level athlete, even as a 6'-8" forward. His lateral agility and jumping ability is poor.
2. He has a terribly slow, ugly as hell jump shot that no one respects.

Other than that there really aren't any problems with him, but those are two really red flags in terms of the prospects of him becoming a lead player on a contender.

Definitely agree athleticism is his biggest limiting factor. He's 6'8", like 215 and still young, so I think he'll get much stronger, maybe add 5-10 lbs of muscle. That will help him a lot as a forward. With more strength and better instincts/training, he could get to be an average forward defender, which I think will be more than good enough. He's probably working with a new shooting coach now, so TBD on speeding up the jump shot. If other teams don't respect it, and he keeps shooting 36% or close, that's fine, just need to increase his volume. Strengthening his body should make him a little quicker, and will make both offense and defense much easier. With his athleticism, he'll definitely have to be more crafty and that comes with time.

Think we all would agree 25 year old Giddey SHOULD be better NBA wise than 22 year old Giddey. Or do you think he's peaked? Then the question is, if you agree he should be better, what does that better look like? Is a Giddey with 3 more years of game time and practice a guy you want on your team? Not this Giddey right now. If he gets to average defender and gets more polished offensive moves, he's probably All-Star or close in terms of positive impact.

[League Circles]

This sounds a lot more reasonable. My thought is there's no way at this present point to even evaluate his defense fairly, moving into an entirely new defensive system is not easy for young players. Having Vuc as the last line of defense makes it even worse, half of defense nowadays is forcing your defense into the help defense, not just staying in front of him. I keep seeing him playing in the NBa for 4 years basically means we should ignore his age, which doesn't make sense. NBA experience is great, but skills are learned over time and in practice, probably far more than 20-30 minutes of game time. That's when you use the skills, not learn them. His skill level should be compared to other 22 year olds, not just other 4 year vets. There are skills learned playing 2-4 years in college too.

It's just odd that people seem to think he's peaked already when he hasn't even come close to his physical peak yet, yet alone skill peak. If he had been putting up 8, 4, and 4 with bad defense for four years, I'd understand more, but he's put up some pretty impressive numbers, regardless of position. There are more efficient players putting up that 8, 4, and 4 with good defense, are they really more valuable? Especially long-term. Again, his defense, especially if he changes positions, is almost certainly going to be better than it is now. His offensive skills will almost inevitably improve as well, he's barely an adult. If we had judged Coby on his age 22 year, he might not be here. Most people here would definitely been against him getting mid-level. They would have been wrong. He's probably WORSE guarding 6'8 players than Giddey is guarding smaller players, lol. I know in todays NBA PF's are supposed to be able to guard point guards, but that's usually going to be a problem, and vice versa.

Is Giddey really even guarding opposing guards that much? Most of the time when I'm watching him he's been guarding a forward, which he obviously should considering he's a slow footed 6'-8" player, which is probably why the Bulls call him a forward lol.

Skills and the projected pace of skill development isn't the problem with Giddey. His problems really boil down to this:

1. He's not an NBA level athlete, even as a 6'-8" forward. His lateral agility and jumping ability is poor.
2. He has a terribly slow, ugly as hell jump shot that no one respects.

Other than that there really aren't any problems with him, but those are two really red flags in terms of the prospects of him becoming a lead player on a contender.

Definitely agree athleticism is his biggest limiting factor. He's 6'8", like 215 and still young, so I think he'll get much stronger, maybe add 5-10 lbs of muscle. That will help him a lot as a forward. With more strength and better instincts/training, he could get to be an average forward defender, which I think will be more than good enough. He's probably working with a new shooting coach now, so TBD on speeding up the jump shot. If other teams don't respect it, and he keeps shooting 36% or close, that's fine, just need to increase his volume. Strengthening his body should make him a little quicker, and will make both offense and defense much easier. With his athleticism, he'll definitely have to be more crafty and that comes with time.

Think we all would agree 25 year old Giddey SHOULD be better NBA wise than 22 year old Giddey. Or do you think he's peaked? Then the question is, if you agree he should be better, what does that better look like? Is a Giddey with 3 more years of game time and practice a guy you want on your team? Not this Giddey right now. If he gets to average defender and gets more polished offensive moves, he's probably All-Star or close in terms of positive impact.

I think it's a physical impossibility that he'll ever be an average defender. When he's probably in the bottom 2% in the league in terms of physical gifts that contribute to defensive ability among guys with his frame size, and a lot of the 98% of guys with better gifts than him are also trying hard to improve, I don't think there's any real chance he gets to the 50th percentile in defensive impact. And guys with his physical limitations also often peak way earlier than average players cause as soon as their athleticism starts to decline in their late 20s, they can fall off a cliff in terms of ability to guard. Carlos Boozer was a great example of this.

Guys that make mental mistakes but show at least flashes of physical dominance are the guys I expect to improve, if they have the work ethic. I expect Giddey to be a little bit better in 3 years, but no reason to think it will be a lot. He's not a high mistake player. Occasionally a young guy who doesn't work hard gets much better training habits after a few years. Perhaps that's the case with giddy, but I have no reason to think it is. He's been playing bball non-stop including tons of game time for years now and hasn't improved a lot and is still terrible at two really important things. Yeah, he could plausibly run an above average NBA offense for yours to come. But if we want to actually be a contender, we need significantly better players than him leading the way. And I don't see him as like a fifth starter or bench type in a way that will work in terms of team chemistry. He's a guy whos game requires him to have the ball a lot. He's just not good enough to be that guy on a good NBA team, and I don't think the gap is due to a lack of training or time or opportunity. I think he's a guy that could be a solid nba backup point forward or a good starter /star doing the same thing in a foreign pro league. I don't see the wisdom in us prioritizing a guy like that.

[Infinity2152]

Is Giddey really even guarding opposing guards that much? Most of the time when I'm watching him he's been guarding a forward, which he obviously should considering he's a slow footed 6'-8" player, which is probably why the Bulls call him a forward lol.

Skills and the projected pace of skill development isn't the problem with Giddey. His problems really boil down to this:

1. He's not an NBA level athlete, even as a 6'-8" forward. His lateral agility and jumping ability is poor.
2. He has a terribly slow, ugly as hell jump shot that no one respects.

Other than that there really aren't any problems with him, but those are two really red flags in terms of the prospects of him becoming a lead player on a contender.

Definitely agree athleticism is his biggest limiting factor. He's 6'8", like 215 and still young, so I think he'll get much stronger, maybe add 5-10 lbs of muscle. That will help him a lot as a forward. With more strength and better instincts/training, he could get to be an average forward defender, which I think will be more than good enough. He's probably working with a new shooting coach now, so TBD on speeding up the jump shot. If other teams don't respect it, and he keeps shooting 36% or close, that's fine, just need to increase his volume. Strengthening his body should make him a little quicker, and will make both offense and defense much easier. With his athleticism, he'll definitely have to be more crafty and that comes with time.

Think we all would agree 25 year old Giddey SHOULD be better NBA wise than 22 year old Giddey. Or do you think he's peaked? Then the question is, if you agree he should be better, what does that better look like? Is a Giddey with 3 more years of game time and practice a guy you want on your team? Not this Giddey right now. If he gets to average defender and gets more polished offensive moves, he's probably All-Star or close in terms of positive impact.

I think it's a physical impossibility that he'll ever be an average defender. When he's probably in the bottom 2% in the league in terms of physical gifts that contribute to defensive ability among guys with his frame size, and a lot of the 98% of guys with better gifts than him are also trying hard to improve, I don't think there's any real chance he gets to the 50th percentile in defensive impact. And guys with his physical limitations also often peak way earlier than average players cause as soon as their athleticism starts to decline in their late 20s, they can fall off a cliff in terms of ability to guard. Carlos Boozer was a great example of this.

Guys that make mental mistakes but show at least flashes of physical dominance are the guys I expect to improve, if they have the work ethic. I expect Giddey to be a little bit better in 3 years, but no reason to think it will be a lot. He's not a high mistake player. Occasionally a young guy who doesn't work hard gets much better training habits after a few years. Perhaps that's the case with giddy, but I have no reason to think it is. He's been playing bball non-stop including tons of game time for years now and hasn't improved a lot and is still terrible at two really important things. Yeah, he could plausibly run an above average NBA offense for yours to come. But if we want to actually be a contender, we need significantly better players than him leading the way. And I don't see him as like a fifth starter or bench type in a way that will work in terms of team chemistry. He's a guy whos game requires him to have the ball a lot. He's just not good enough to be that guy on a good NBA team, and I don't think the gap is due to a lack of training or time or opportunity. I think he's a guy that could be a solid nba backup point forward or a good starter /star doing the same thing in a foreign pro league. I don't see the wisdom in us prioritizing a guy like that.

Again, much of that is relative to his age and size. A 19 year old is usually not going to be as athletic as a 24 year old peer. Period. There are exceptions, but most NBA players will get faster and stronger in their 20's. Average NBA player age is 26, their physical peak. Much of his career, he may as well have been a college kid in the pros. Most college players would not be able to handle a full NBA season, let alone starting position. Then he's 6'8 being compared to super athletic 6'3 players. His play type is much like Luka, who's a what percent NBA athlete? 25-30? Luka's much more skilled and much heavier, and he uses that. Still not a good defender, don't think the Mavs care.

The taller the player, the less athletic they HAVE to be in order to be successful. He could be end up a 20th percentile athlete and be a 40th percentile defender if he plays smarter, gains weight, and learns to use his weight and length to his advantage. I'm old enough to remember giving up Elton Brand and Lamarcus Aldridge for Tyson Chandler and Tyrus Thomas because they were more athletic and supposed to be great defenders. We're actively try to trade our most athletic player right now. I doubt he'll ever be a plus defender. But he's so far from his physical peak, it's impossible to know what his physicals will look like in 2-3 years. I believe the biggest knock on Jimmy Butler, one of the best defenders in the league now, was below average athleticism when he entered the league. He got way stronger (and faster) and his defensive attitude, the effort he puts in on defense, elevated him.

With his offensive abilities and some improvements, I'd be fine with 40th percentile defender if he's top 10% in rebounding and assists for position.

[League Circles]

Definitely agree athleticism is his biggest limiting factor. He's 6'8", like 215 and still young, so I think he'll get much stronger, maybe add 5-10 lbs of muscle. That will help him a lot as a forward. With more strength and better instincts/training, he could get to be an average forward defender, which I think will be more than good enough. He's probably working with a new shooting coach now, so TBD on speeding up the jump shot. If other teams don't respect it, and he keeps shooting 36% or close, that's fine, just need to increase his volume. Strengthening his body should make him a little quicker, and will make both offense and defense much easier. With his athleticism, he'll definitely have to be more crafty and that comes with time.

Think we all would agree 25 year old Giddey SHOULD be better NBA wise than 22 year old Giddey. Or do you think he's peaked? Then the question is, if you agree he should be better, what does that better look like? Is a Giddey with 3 more years of game time and practice a guy you want on your team? Not this Giddey right now. If he gets to average defender and gets more polished offensive moves, he's probably All-Star or close in terms of positive impact.

I think it's a physical impossibility that he'll ever be an average defender. When he's probably in the bottom 2% in the league in terms of physical gifts that contribute to defensive ability among guys with his frame size, and a lot of the 98% of guys with better gifts than him are also trying hard to improve, I don't think there's any real chance he gets to the 50th percentile in defensive impact. And guys with his physical limitations also often peak way earlier than average players cause as soon as their athleticism starts to decline in their late 20s, they can fall off a cliff in terms of ability to guard. Carlos Boozer was a great example of this.

Guys that make mental mistakes but show at least flashes of physical dominance are the guys I expect to improve, if they have the work ethic. I expect Giddey to be a little bit better in 3 years, but no reason to think it will be a lot. He's not a high mistake player. Occasionally a young guy who doesn't work hard gets much better training habits after a few years. Perhaps that's the case with giddy, but I have no reason to think it is. He's been playing bball non-stop including tons of game time for years now and hasn't improved a lot and is still terrible at two really important things. Yeah, he could plausibly run an above average NBA offense for yours to come. But if we want to actually be a contender, we need significantly better players than him leading the way. And I don't see him as like a fifth starter or bench type in a way that will work in terms of team chemistry. He's a guy whos game requires him to have the ball a lot. He's just not good enough to be that guy on a good NBA team, and I don't think the gap is due to a lack of training or time or opportunity. I think he's a guy that could be a solid nba backup point forward or a good starter /star doing the same thing in a foreign pro league. I don't see the wisdom in us prioritizing a guy like that.

Again, much of that is relative to his age and size. A 19 year old is usually not going to be as athletic as a 24 year old peer. Period. There are exceptions, but most NBA players will get faster and stronger in their 20's. Average NBA player age is 26, their physical peak. Much of his career, he may as well have been a college kid in the pros. Most college players would not be able to handle a full NBA season, let alone starting position. Then he's 6'8 being compared to super athletic 6'3 players. His play type is much like Luka, who's a what percent NBA athlete? 25-30? Luka's much more skilled and much heavier, and he uses that. Still not a good defender, don't think the Mavs care.

The taller the player, the less athletic they HAVE to be in order to be successful. He could be end up a 20th percentile athlete and be a 40th percentile defender if he plays smarter, gains weight, and learns to use his weight and length to his advantage. I'm old enough to remember giving up Elton Brand and Lamarcus Aldridge for Tyson Chandler and Tyrus Thomas because they were more athletic and supposed to be great defenders. We're actively try to trade our most athletic player right now. I doubt he'll ever be a plus defender. But he's so far from his physical peak, it's impossible to know what his physicals will look like in 2-3 years. I believe the biggest knock on Jimmy Butler, one of the best defenders in the league now, was below average athleticism when he entered the league. He got way stronger (and faster) and his defensive attitude, the effort he puts in on defense, elevated him.

With his offensive abilities and some improvements, I'd be fine with 40th percentile defender if he's top 10% in rebounding and assists for position.

I don't think he can become a 40th percentile defender either, nor do I think he's as far from his physical peak as you do. I think most guys in the NBA are basically at their physical peak after 2-3 years. I'm not comparing him with anybody 6'-3". I've never considered him a "point guard". I think he's a terrible, slow defender for a 6'-8" forward. That might be workable if he had scoring ability and thus attracted defensive attention like Luca Doncic, but he clearly doesn't. He can still be a solid nba player and be maybe a prominent bench player, but I'm only interested in potential core players right now. And just to be clear - Giddey is 22 years old in his 5th season playing professional basketball.

[MrSparkle]

Giddey is talented enough to work in the NBA. Between 6th man being his ideal position, or a (defensively) hidden 5th man, he’s a niche player.

IMO he’ll be solid if he’s extended at or below $20M salary, and playing with 3-4 defenders (instead of 1 undersized one: Ayo or Pat).

I still think he mainly needs a really reliable 3P shot. Decent percentage (36%) but 1.2/3.4 doesn’t cut it. Needs to either be 45% on that low of an *open shot* volume (like Vuc), or high-volume territory (8 3PAs) if it’s gonna be 36%. Obviously right now, we don’t want this guy bricking any more. He’s a next year project, afaic. I’d prefer not to let him walk for nothing. All must admit that his passing has made the terriBulls much more watchable on the offensive end, regardless of the overall impact. Creative playmaking is contagious.

Have to sell high on Vuc and Zach. Possibly Coby, but prob not unless someone overpays. This of course means crap returns. But getting top-10 picks in the next 2 drafts trumps mediocre returns, along with giving SAS a 2nd rounder in 2027… Hell they could even resign Lonzo to another short 2y rehab contract since the tank would be officially on. I’d settle for a protected 1st for Zach, and whatever (bunch of 2nds) for Vuc. I’d also possibly consider keeping Zach and moving Coby, just to not deal with a fresh extension. Zach’s $48M expiring in 2027 is going to be a very nice chip. Do we really want to lock in a streaky, lower level Coby to a 5y $25-30M deal at that point? Depends how he develops, but this season is disappointing.

Ayo, Terry, Jalen, Phillips, Patrick all seem like MLE ceiling players in their primes… but having a bunch of developed defensively minded wings (with decent 3P threat) on affordable deals at 25-29yo would be solid if we draft star prospects (starting with a Flag/Harper/Bailey).

[Guru]

Nice triple double tonight from Giddey.

[HomoSapien]

His improved early season three-point shooting has trended down. Hopefully he can get back to being more reliable.

[drosestruts]

Giddey splits in wins vs losses seem like two entirely different players:

Wins: 14/8/8 on 52/43/71 shooting splits with a TS% of 62%

Losses: 11/5/6 on 39/28/68 shooting splits with a TS% of 47%

[Jcool0]

His improved early season three-point shooting has trended down. Hopefully he can get back to being more reliable.

Im fine with him going 1-8 from 3 if he shoots 53% overall

[Infinity2152]

I think it's a physical impossibility that he'll ever be an average defender. When he's probably in the bottom 2% in the league in terms of physical gifts that contribute to defensive ability among guys with his frame size, and a lot of the 98% of guys with better gifts than him are also trying hard to improve, I don't think there's any real chance he gets to the 50th percentile in defensive impact. And guys with his physical limitations also often peak way earlier than average players cause as soon as their athleticism starts to decline in their late 20s, they can fall off a cliff in terms of ability to guard. Carlos Boozer was a great example of this.

Guys that make mental mistakes but show at least flashes of physical dominance are the guys I expect to improve, if they have the work ethic. I expect Giddey to be a little bit better in 3 years, but no reason to think it will be a lot. He's not a high mistake player. Occasionally a young guy who doesn't work hard gets much better training habits after a few years. Perhaps that's the case with giddy, but I have no reason to think it is. He's been playing bball non-stop including tons of game time for years now and hasn't improved a lot and is still terrible at two really important things. Yeah, he could plausibly run an above average NBA offense for yours to come. But if we want to actually be a contender, we need significantly better players than him leading the way. And I don't see him as like a fifth starter or bench type in a way that will work in terms of team chemistry. He's a guy whos game requires him to have the ball a lot. He's just not good enough to be that guy on a good NBA team, and I don't think the gap is due to a lack of training or time or opportunity. I think he's a guy that could be a solid nba backup point forward or a good starter /star doing the same thing in a foreign pro league. I don't see the wisdom in us prioritizing a guy like that.

Again, much of that is relative to his age and size. A 19 year old is usually not going to be as athletic as a 24 year old peer. Period. There are exceptions, but most NBA players will get faster and stronger in their 20's. Average NBA player age is 26, their physical peak. Much of his career, he may as well have been a college kid in the pros. Most college players would not be able to handle a full NBA season, let alone starting position. Then he's 6'8 being compared to super athletic 6'3 players. His play type is much like Luka, who's a what percent NBA athlete? 25-30? Luka's much more skilled and much heavier, and he uses that. Still not a good defender, don't think the Mavs care.

The taller the player, the less athletic they HAVE to be in order to be successful. He could be end up a 20th percentile athlete and be a 40th percentile defender if he plays smarter, gains weight, and learns to use his weight and length to his advantage. I'm old enough to remember giving up Elton Brand and Lamarcus Aldridge for Tyson Chandler and Tyrus Thomas because they were more athletic and supposed to be great defenders. We're actively try to trade our most athletic player right now. I doubt he'll ever be a plus defender. But he's so far from his physical peak, it's impossible to know what his physicals will look like in 2-3 years. I believe the biggest knock on Jimmy Butler, one of the best defenders in the league now, was below average athleticism when he entered the league. He got way stronger (and faster) and his defensive attitude, the effort he puts in on defense, elevated him.

With his offensive abilities and some improvements, I'd be fine with 40th percentile defender if he's top 10% in rebounding and assists for position.

I don't think he can become a 40th percentile defender either, nor do I think he's as far from his physical peak as you do. I think most guys in the NBA are basically at their physical peak after 2-3 years. I'm not comparing him with anybody 6'-3". I've never considered him a "point guard". I think he's a terrible, slow defender for a 6'-8" forward. That might be workable if he had scoring ability and thus attracted defensive attention like Luca Doncic, but he clearly doesn't. He can still be a solid nba player and be maybe a prominent bench player, but I'm only interested in potential core players right now. And just to be clear - Giddey is 22 years old in his 5th season playing professional basketball.

Yeah, we definitely disagree on peak, Some of these guys have 15-20 year careers, peaking 2-3 years would mean they've been declining for 12-17 years, yet still NBA capable, even improving. Minus the year or 2 they remain at peak, of course. Guys get stronger into their late 20's. Playing in the NBA sooner isn't going to make him peak faster than if this was his first year. I thought Jimmy Butler was a pretty terrible offensive player at 22. Shot 18% from three, 40% from the field, no handles, no playmaking, no offensive moves. Looked as bad on offense as Giddey does on defense. Using Butler because he's the first player that comes to mind who looked way better at 25 than 22, but there are plenty.

Is immediately playing in the NBA at 18 ALWAYS going to result in a better player, as opposed to 4 years of college and entering the league at 22? I can see an argument for more basic skill development if you wait. Once you're in the league, nobody's drilling basics. He averaged 17 pts/gm in 31 mins/gm a couple of seasons ago, think he's shown some scoring ability. He's not the most efficient, but he's pretty aggressive offensively, and his assists increase his offensive value.

[Ballerkingn23]

I'm ok with him so far, just that funky shot. Otherwise he's cool. I still wish we got more from OKC for AC though, but that's not Giddey's fault.

[Bulldog23]

He is a bench player. You can't play him or build around a player that isn't a two way player. This team has three guys starting that can't defend.

[Stratmaster]

One of the things I noted earlier in the thread is that I would overpay Giddey to take a two year deal, assuming we are able to shed the veteran salaries we are trying to shed. That would permit us to evaluate him in a better context with no real long term risk. Its an option I could live with.

This sounds a lot more reasonable. My thought is there's no way at this present point to even evaluate his defense fairly, moving into an entirely new defensive system is not easy for young players. Having Vuc as the last line of defense makes it even worse, half of defense nowadays is forcing your defense into the help defense, not just staying in front of him. I keep seeing him playing in the NBa for 4 years basically means we should ignore his age, which doesn't make sense. NBA experience is great, but skills are learned over time and in practice, probably far more than 20-30 minutes of game time. That's when you use the skills, not learn them. His skill level should be compared to other 22 year olds, not just other 4 year vets. There are skills learned playing 2-4 years in college too.

It's just odd that people seem to think he's peaked already when he hasn't even come close to his physical peak yet, yet alone skill peak. If he had been putting up 8, 4, and 4 with bad defense for four years, I'd understand more, but he's put up some pretty impressive numbers, regardless of position. There are more efficient players putting up that 8, 4, and 4 with good defense, are they really more valuable? Especially long-term. Again, his defense, especially if he changes positions, is almost certainly going to be better than it is now. His offensive skills will almost inevitably improve as well, he's barely an adult. If we had judged Coby on his age 22 year, he might not be here. Most people here would definitely been against him getting mid-level. They would have been wrong. He's probably WORSE guarding 6'8 players than Giddey is guarding smaller players, lol. I know in todays NBA PF's are supposed to be able to guard point guards, but that's usually going to be a problem, and vice versa.

Is Giddey really even guarding opposing guards that much? Most of the time when I'm watching him he's been guarding a forward, which he obviously should considering he's a slow footed 6'-8" player, which is probably why the Bulls call him a forward lol.

Skills and the projected pace of skill development isn't the problem with Giddey. His problems really boil down to this:

1. He's not an NBA level athlete, even as a 6'-8" forward. His lateral agility and jumping ability is poor.
2. He has a terribly slow, ugly as hell jump shot that no one respects.

Other than that there really aren't any problems with him, but those are two really red flags in terms of the prospects of him becoming a lead player on a contender.

I agree with you on #2. Disagree on #1. Not every player has to be able to jump through the roof. He is an elite rebounder for the 1 through 3 positions on the court. You don't get that from being 6'8". You get it from being physical, having some level of reasonable hops, positioning, and IQ. A couple of those are physical/athletic qualities.

He also gets to the rim frequently and easily. How well he finishes is another discussion. I don't think he is great at it, but he's not bad at it and should improve with more experience. Again, that ability has to do with physical attributes.

[Infinity2152]

I'm ok with him so far, just that funky shot. Otherwise he's cool. I still wish we got more from OKC for AC though, but that's not Giddey's fault.

That's the other point. What did we give up for him? A 1yr contract Caruso. We get to audition him for a full year, and have first crack on re-signing him. we should at least give him the entire season before judging him, we have that luxury. He's not getting re-signed before the off season, so why not wait? The complaints about Giddey are what keep him from being a high level superstar, not from being a valuable player. A 6'8" athletic defensive three point shooting ball handling 22 year old? That guy is getting rookie max.

Giddey will be viewed as sixth man/starter level at least for the next 10 years, barring injury. There's no possibility healthy giddey gets under 20 minutes a game on pretty much any team in the NBA, other than the Celtics. If we're worrying about what we're going to have to pay him, when we know they're planning to let him look for offers, doesn't that say something about his value in the league? We have to take SOME chances on our own guys, chance of Giddey improving has to be way higher than the chance we get the #1-#2 pick in this draft and also draft a superstar with that pick. Will only cost us cash to find out, should depend on the amount.

[sco]

I'm ok with him so far, just that funky shot. Otherwise he's cool. I still wish we got more from OKC for AC though, but that's not Giddey's fault.

That's the other point. What did we give up for him? A 1yr contract Caruso. We get to audition him for a full year, and have first crack on re-signing him. we should at least give him the entire season before judging him, we have that luxury. He's not getting re-signed before the off season, so why not wait? The complaints about Giddey are what keep him from being a high level superstar, not from being a valuable player. A 6'8" athletic defensive three point shooting ball handling 22 year old? That guy is getting rookie max.

Giddey will be viewed as sixth man/starter level at least for the next 10 years, barring injury. There's no possibility healthy giddey gets under 20 minutes a game on pretty much any team in the NBA, other than the Celtics. If we're worrying about what we're going to have to pay him, when we know they're planning to let him look for offers, doesn't that say something about his value in the league? We have to take SOME chances on our own guys, chance of Giddey improving has to be way higher than the chance we get the #1-#2 pick in this draft and also draft a superstar with that pick. Will only cost us cash to find out, should depend on the amount.

I think there are 2 questions on Giddey:

1) What does his game look like without Vuc and Zach on the roster?

2) How much is going to cost?

Optimistically, we'll get to see #1 after the trade deadline. #2 will play out in FA, but if AK uses the playbook and says he'll match offers, it should further dampen a likely already soft market for him. The cost for a 5th/6th man is the MLE. Given his upside/downside/age, that would be a steal.

[FriedRise]

Giddey splits in wins vs losses seem like two entirely different players:

Wins: 14/8/8 on 52/43/71 shooting splits with a TS% of 62%

Losses: 11/5/6 on 39/28/68 shooting splits with a TS% of 47%

For a pass-first PG like him, I think a lot of his impact depends more heavily on how the rest of his teammates do. If they're all hitting shots, he'll have a high assist game and the court will be more open for him to drive. If they're all putting up bricks, then the court will shrink and it'll be that much more difficult for him to get to the basket.

Giddey's top 3 passing targets are Vooch, Zach, and Coby, and all have been hitting shots at an extremely high level.

[dougthonus]

His improved early season three-point shooting has trended down. Hopefully he can get back to being more reliable.

I think the problem is no one cares about his three point shooting more so than the percentage. Teams are content to give him the wide open 3 and not even attempt to defend him out there in order to defend 5 on 4 on everyone else, and until he punishes teams consistently enough for that treatment, they will keep doing it. That's probably hitting 40%+ of those shots.

[Chi town]

His improved early season three-point shooting has trended down. Hopefully he can get back to being more reliable.

I think the problem is no one cares about his three point shooting more so than the percentage. Teams are content to give him the wide open 3 and not even attempt to defend him out there in order to defend 5 on 4 on everyone else, and until he punishes teams consistently enough for that treatment, they will keep doing it. That's probably hitting 40%+ of those shots.

The Giddler being a keeper comes down to three things in order of importance…

1. Fix the shot. See Lonzo. He has to be able to be ready to shoot, step into his shot, and shoot quickly. Right now he catches flat footed and then sets up. I’ve seen him step into 3 3s all season and he made 2 of them.
Quicker makes immediately make him a much better player with way more gravity and improves our whole offense. It also sets up his downhill closeouts in turn getting assists and buckets and FTs. This is BY FAR his greatest need.

2. Play D. Move your feet. He has shown passable D the past 3 games. He needs this level of D every game. He won’t be targeted playing D like this. Add in a defensive C behind this level of D and he no longer hurts us defensively.

3. Create your offense. Giddey really can’t score unless he’s going down hill in transition. He sucks in the half court. He’s doesn’t even really get good shots in PNR. He only has a runner. No jumper, step back, go to move. He basically euros into a push shot. No fadeaway or spin to up and under.

I’ve seen enough to know what Giddey can become and what he’s not. He has to fix the shot setup like Zo did. If he does he becomes a piece to build with. If he can dial the shot and learn to shoot on the move or bounce he immediately becomes a piece to build on not just with.

[League Circles]

The question with Giddey should simply be whether he can run a contender level nba offense AND be paid like a 4th or 5th best starter, because IMO he simply doesn't have the overall talent/ability of a top 3 player on a contender.

If he can even start on a contender, it would be as the worst defender in the unit. Offensively, he could maybe be the third best player on a contender. Maybe.

I don't think we're likely to get high end top 2 starters, which means our 3rd through 5th best starters need to be above average to have a chance. I don't see a path forward to Giddey being better than the 5th best defender or 3rd best offensive starter on a title team, which would make him, at best, the 5th best starter on a contender, and given the margin of error involved, I think he'd only be a plus as a 5th starter if he was making bench money. So that's my contract limit for him. Paying him legit starter money really holds us at projected mediocrity.