Josh Giddey 3.0

[thxfrthmmrs]

In a perfect world the Bulls didn’t resign Pat to that god awful contract and AK isn’t getting PTSD from all the heat he’s got for giving out the contract, and he doesn’t have to low ball the **** out of Giddey to redeem himself.

[jnrjr79]

In a perfect world the Bulls didn’t resign Pat to that god awful contract and AK isn’t getting PTSD from all the heat he’s got for giving out the contract, and he doesn’t have to low ball the **** out of Giddey to redeem himself.

It boggles my mind that people can see what AK’s track record has been, see him trade Caruso for Giddey and no picks, and then watch him not fall victim to the sunk cost fallacy and actually try to negotiate a good deal and conclude “AK is screwing this up” as opposed to “thank goodness AK has finally learned a lesson.”

[Ccwatercraft]

The sports world is exceptionally unique and I always feel attempts to compare/contrast experiences in many of our lives to the sports world miss that point entirely.

There are all kinds of contract employment situations outside of the sports world. The difference is the magnitude of the numbers and some of the artificial contract limitations. Yes, at some point you take 20 mil versus 30 mil if you have to. Moreso than someone might take 66k instead of 100k. Give me a sports situation that aligns with Giddeys, where the player took 33% less than their agent analysis told them they were worth.

Would Schroeder qualify for this?

[DrModesty]

I think that $25m is fair because of the depressive conditions of the current market. I think in most other market conditions we have seen in recent years it would be higher.

1: I don't really agree because I think the league values shooting/defense so much, but...

2: If I'm wrong, does it matter? These ARE the conditions right now. It doesn't matter what would happen if conditions were different. They aren't different.

I think I also place particularly high value on premier passing skills. I have noticed a commonality of my valuations being higher on those players than consensus. Although not Lamelo or Trae. Exception for every rule I guess.

I would order skills in the modern NBA in terms of priority as something like:
1: Shooting (everyone needs it)
2: Defense (everyone needs it)
3: Ball handling (more important for a star than supporting player but helpful for everyone)
4: Passing (more important for a star than supporting player but helpful for everyone)
5: Rebounding (mostly think this rarely matters outside the big positions, but a nice bonus)

Obviously you could break down all these categories into sub categories (some broader than others).

I generally agree with your ranking of skill priorities. I think that teams get an outsized benefit from having one fantastic passer (really what I mean is game manager) on the court, but for a blanket rule passing is less important. Same with having one fantastic interior defender.

[dougthonus]

1. Watch for decades, you'll see a lot of things happen. What usually happens? Are you seriously saying the majority of negotiations in the NBA between two parties last 4 -5 months? Far apart is one thing. Now define far apart. Parties often come in with a 50% difference in valuation and make a deal? 50% is a HUGE gap to bridge without anybody moving till force. Name some contracts where a player actually signed for 33% less than what he was asking for, if it happens often. A player was asking $30 mill and signed for $20 mill. They usually end up with another team. Or sign a short term deal. Thing preventing that is combination of Giddey's RFA tag and no money in the market. He's still the same player.

How far were the Pacers and Myles Turner apart for him to end up on the Bucks badmouthing the Pacers? He only got $26 mil, Pacers offer was reportedly north of $20mill.

The majority of negotiations that do not have an immediate resolution and a wide gap, do not get concluded until there is some type of event that creates pressure. There is no event in these negotiations to create pressure until the deadline comes.

2. Reverse it from the Bulls perspective. From the Bulls perspective, how much are they willing to pay Giddey at absolute most? That's where they actually value Giddey. How close to that number are they actually bidding? Forget what Giddey asked for. If Giddey asked for $25 mill, do you think the Bulls would have just given him that? Are they offering 25-50% less than their actual max as a starting point? Are you saying their offer was based on Giddey's asking price?

For all but the last question, you can ask the same questions of Giddey. What's the lowest number Giddey will actually accept? How close is his opening offer to that number? Forget what the Bulls offered. If the Bulls offered 25m do you think Giddey would have just taken that?

The answer to all those questions is unknown on both sides, but the sides are exactly equidistant apart from $25m so the total dollars are the same from a movement perspective regardless.

As for the Bulls offer, yes, I think there is a very reasonable chance that they think 25M is the number and made an equidistantly unreasonable offer in order to meet in the middle because while its irrational that people would just split the difference, there is this subconscious bias to do it if it doesn't feel too far off.

My opinion on that though is based on nothing other than that I think $25M is the fair number and the numbers line up that way, maybe the Bulls really think he's worth $22M and won't pay a dollar more, but I kind of doubt it.

3. You keep saying things are quite normal. For every single contract that goes like this, I can show you 5-10 that didn't. This is not usual contract negotiations. 3 other relatively big named restricted free agents are going through the same thing. Did that happen last year? Year before? Year before that? 4 of the top RFA's either took the QO or didn't sign until just before the season?

I'm saying it's very normal for negotiations not to move when both sides feel like they will lose by engaging and there is no reason to engage to overcome that bias.

4. I agree. I have no idea what the other parameters in the contract would or could be, which is why I'm suggesting focusing so much on the AAV is bad business. It does seem logical that the higher the AAV, the more the team could negotiate for team friendly terms, like last year option year. Maybe even last year option year AND back-load the contract, so the most money would come in a team option year with a larger cap.

Sure, we focus on AAV, but I agree other features have value for both sides, who knows how much those features are worth to both sides is up for debate.

This is the type of negotiation I'd love to hear they were doing. If two sides are trying to make a deal, there needs to be some give and take, usually. Maybe they are, and that's behind the scenes and we don't know it. I think if we heard they were at least talking and TRYING to get something one, that would help.

I would guess there are no serious discussions, because as I noted above, there is nothing adding pressure to talk now, and the perceived first mover will feel like they're losing, and unlike forum posters here, the people negotiating these deals are professionals and aren't flinching for no reason right now (on both sides).

Like if the Bulls are at 4yrs/$80 mill now. Why can't they send them an offer right now and say we'll give you 4 years/$23 mill but the last year will be a team option? Get the ball rolling. Maybe Giddey counters, same contract $27 mill AAV. Lot more leeway and time for both sides to move back and forth now than if they wait until the deadline.

Either side could do this, but neither side has much incentive to do it until there is time pressure.

More or less, the only thing I'm saying here is that these types of negotiations don't move until there is reason to move or some natural connection point. Neither side gains anything meaningful by getting the deal done today, so they don't have any incentive to engage. In most negotiations, time has a much bigger impact, both sides want the results of the deal sooner, but come October 2nd, it will make no difference whatsoever whether the deal was agreed to on July 1st, August 1st, Sept 1st, or Oct 1st.

[dougthonus]

I generally agree with your ranking of skill priorities. I think that teams get an outsized benefit from having one fantastic passer (really what I mean is game manager) on the court, but for a blanket rule passing is less important. Same with having one fantastic interior defender.

I also agree with that, but I think to get that outsized advantage, that player also has to be able to create gravity and space. Ie, they have to be able to beat someone, draw double teams, and create conditions to make that passing a significant advantage.

Giddey doesn't really have those traits to maximize his passing ability like say Magic Johnson or Chris Paul. I view Lonzo as a similar type passer to Giddey. They definitely make a difference, but Lonzo also lacked the first step to make that passing have a big multiplier effect.

The trait is still valuable, but only as valuable as the ball is consistently in your hands, and without the creation/gravity creating traits, the ball is in your hands less, and certainly less in high leverage situations.

[dougthonus]

There are all kinds of contract employment situations outside of the sports world. The difference is the magnitude of the numbers and some of the artificial contract limitations. Yes, at some point you take 20 mil versus 30 mil if you have to. Moreso than someone might take 66k instead of 100k. Give me a sports situation that aligns with Giddeys, where the player took 33% less than their agent analysis told them they were worth.

Do you think Giddey's agent thinks he's going to get 30M if that was his opening bid? Do you think the Bulls think they will sign Giddey for 20M if that is their opening bid (knowing Giddey wants 30 to start?).

I don't think the Bulls goal is to get Giddey at 20M. I'm sure they'd take it if he said yes, but I think they know that isn't the outcome. Much like I'm sure Giddey's agent doesn't think he's going to land at 30M. That's why I have the 25M meet in the middle theory, the Bulls offer being based on where they wanted to land with Giddey then letting him simmer on it.

I think all of this contention created by the wide gap is the Bulls really trying to get Giddey at 25M instead of 27M.

[Jvaughn]

The longer that's drags, the more I see that QO being how this year plays out. This seems eerily familiar to when we held out on paying Jimmy $44 million and then he played himself out of the contract and we had to pay him double.

[Stratmaster]

The sports world is exceptionally unique and I always feel attempts to compare/contrast experiences in many of our lives to the sports world miss that point entirely.

There are all kinds of contract employment situations outside of the sports world. The difference is the magnitude of the numbers and some of the artificial contract limitations. Yes, at some point you take 20 mil versus 30 mil if you have to. Moreso than someone might take 66k instead of 100k. Give me a sports situation that aligns with Giddeys, where the player took 33% less than their agent analysis told them they were worth.

Would Schroeder qualify for this?

If Schroder was asking for over 22 million AAV he would qualify. He is 31 years old, a part time starter who's biggest personal achievement in 12 seasons is managing to play for 9 different teams. So if his agent set his first bid at 22 mil he was insane.

[Stratmaster]

There are all kinds of contract employment situations outside of the sports world. The difference is the magnitude of the numbers and some of the artificial contract limitations. Yes, at some point you take 20 mil versus 30 mil if you have to. Moreso than someone might take 66k instead of 100k. Give me a sports situation that aligns with Giddeys, where the player took 33% less than their agent analysis told them they were worth.

Do you think Giddey's agent thinks he's going to get 30M if that was his opening bid? Do you think the Bulls think they will sign Giddey for 20M if that is their opening bid (knowing Giddey wants 30 to start?).

I don't think the Bulls goal is to get Giddey at 20M. I'm sure they'd take it if he said yes, but I think they know that isn't the outcome. Much like I'm sure Giddey's agent doesn't think he's going to land at 30M. That's why I have the 25M meet in the middle theory, the Bulls offer being based on where they wanted to land with Giddey then letting him simmer on it.

I think all of this contention created by the wide gap is the Bulls really trying to get Giddey at 25M instead of 27M.

I agree with all of that. It's just an unnecessarily contentious and risky approach to get to the final result.

[dougthonus]

I agree with all of that. It's just an unnecessarily contentious and risky approach to get to the final result.

I would guess it is a more likely approach to get the result they want. I think if they said 25M take it or leave it (or 24M and go up to 25M later) that Giddey would say "I moved way more than you" and emotionally it will hit different. That said previous opinion is not based on anything except my own thoughts so

[Stratmaster]

I agree with all of that. It's just an unnecessarily contentious and risky approach to get to the final result.

I would guess it is a more likely approach to get the result they want. I think if they said 25M take it or leave it (or 24M and go up to 25M later) that Giddey would say "I moved way more than you" and emotionally it will hit different. That said previous opinion is not based on anything except my own thoughts so

The first rule of contact negotiation is start with an aggressive but realistic offer. At 30 million it would make Giddey the 20th or 21st highest paid point guard based on AAV. That is aggressive but realistic.

At 20 million it would put him at 25 or 26 on the list. That isn't the area that "PG of the future coming off a rookie contract" are slotted in. It isn't realistic.

The 2nd rule is that it should be a conversation. Not a confrontation. That ship has already sailed and the Bulls stepped on their own... tails. Every report indicates the talks are contentious. Then add that the Bulls are unwilling to budge, but have also refused to consider sign and trade offers.

When will you start to be concerned? We are just over 1 month before the start of training camp. Are you ok with the Bulls entering training camp with their most critical player having no prior involvement with the team?

Even people like David Haugh are starting to state it is time to begin worrying.

I don't put a lot of stock in pure internet reporters. They all get benefit from blowing things out of proportion. But all the reports are using sentences like "mired in a contentious contract negotiation that seems to be going nowhere".

If you think the number is 25 million, we both agree. I said 27 mil when it started but the arguments about lack of teams capable of bidding are valid. A 25 AAV deal should have been relatively easy to get to If AKME hadn't decided this was the time to show how big their... "negotiating skill" is.

[HomoSapien]

Hi, we are in the end of August. Did we sign him yet?

[jnrjr79]

When will you start to be concerned? We are just over 1 month before the start of training camp. Are you ok with the Bulls entering training camp with their most critical player having no prior involvement with the team?

Giddey can't do anything with the team anyway until camp opens, under the CBA.

[dougthonus]

The first rule of contact negotiation is start with an aggressive but realistic offer. At 30 million it would make Giddey the 20th or 21st highest paid point guard based on AAV. That is aggressive but realistic.

At 20 million it would put him at 25 or 26 on the list. That isn't the area that "PG of the future coming off a rookie contract" are slotted in. It isn't realistic.

I don't think 20M or 30M is more realistic than the other, and I think ways you justify one number as aggressive but realistic in this are irrelevant. I don't care about his money earned relative to other PGs because positions aren't that meaningful in the NBA, nor do I care about calling him "PG of the future coming off a rookie contract".

Those are narratives that I don't believe in comparing his overall skillset and how it fits into a good team or his position in the pecking order on that team or how much a player is worth.

The 2nd rule is that it should be a conversation. Not a confrontation. That ship has already sailed and the Bulls stepped on their own... tails. Every report indicates the talks are contentious. Then add that the Bulls are unwilling to budge, but have also refused to consider sign and trade offers.

When will you start to be concerned? We are just over 1 month before the start of training camp. Are you ok with the Bulls entering training camp with their most critical player having no prior involvement with the team?

The deadline for the QO (if I'm not mistaken is Oct 1st, which is also the start of camp, so we'll have this resolved by then. I won't truly ever be concerned about Giddey because we're a bad team with no star players that needs to get assets. Giddey on a bad deal isn't an asset, Giddey on a good deal is. If we can't get the good deal, getting the bad deal isn't a thing I'd do.

Even people like David Haugh are starting to state it is time to begin worrying.

David Haugh isn't a Bulls guy.

I don't put a lot of stock in pure internet reporters. They all get benefit from blowing things out of proportion. But all the reports are using sentences like "mired in a contentious contract negotiation that seems to be going nowhere".

If you think the number is 25 million, we both agree. I said 27 mil when it started but the arguments about lack of teams capable of bidding are valid. A 25 AAV deal should have been relatively easy to get to If AKME hadn't decided this was the time to show how big their... "negotiating skill" is.

I think this is just all made up in your head though. Neither of us have any idea if either side has moved in any way whatsoever or whom is responsible for the lack of movement. If you think 25M is the right number like me, then both sides are equidistant from that number and neither is more at fault than the other based on what we know.

If you think 27M is the right number, it totally makes sense that you think the Bulls are way more at fault and their number is way less reasonable. Outside of this forum, a ton of the chatter I hear around Giddey feels like his value at 25M is too high and we should pay him 22-23M. That group probably thinks Giddey is being totally insane.

All of our priors will bias us towards how we feel about the negotiation which really has no ultimate right or wrong answer.

[sco]

Part of me is happy that this is still open. Doesn't seem like there's anything else going to happen to the Bulls.

Putting in my 2 cents...I'm handicapping the outcomes as follows:
5yr >$110M 5%
5yr <=$110M 5%
4yr >$90M 20%
4yr <=$90M 30%
3yr <$70M 20%
3yr >$70M 10%
Q0 10%

[GetBuLLish]

All of our priors will bias us towards how we feel about the negotiation which really has no ultimate right or wrong answer.

The only difference is one side wants the Bulls to pay Giddey the smallest amount that he would agree to, which is in the best interests of the Bulls (and their fans). The other side wants the Bulls to pay Giddey an amount that would make him the happiest, which is in the best interests of Giddey.

[DuckIII]

All of our priors will bias us towards how we feel about the negotiation which really has no ultimate right or wrong answer.

The only difference is one side wants the Bulls to pay Giddey the smallest amount that he would agree to, which is in the best interests of the Bulls (and their fans). The other side wants the Bulls to pay Giddey an amount that would make him the happiest, which is in the best interests of Giddey.

That's not an accurate summary.

[jnrjr79]

[Wrong thread...]

[MrSparkle]

My summary… Bulls are firm/hard-balling at $20M… Giddey is hardballing $30M and dragging it out as long as possible for another option to come up. Lauri’s Cavs deal came very late, so anything’s possible.