Josh Giddey - Conundrum Killer

[Infinity2152]

Actually his biggest problem hasn't been scoring efficiency or even defense, it's been how little attention he commands from the opposing defense.

Well OK, but the two items are related. Teams dare him to score because historically he has been bad at it. Presumably, that will change if he keeps scoring 20+_per game on high efficiency.

Or, he has not taken a step forward, this is just a hot streak, we pay him $$$ for his next contract, and then he reverts back to his previous norm. At which point we are screwed.

I think people often overrate the impact of shooting numbers in estimating defensive attention. Whether or not that's wise or being coached or whatever is a separate issue, but IMO they often go more by things like form, shot quickness, and volume. I think most NBA players have mostly seen Giddey with the ball further than 10 feet from the basket as a joke to be dealt with if and when it causes them to start losing. Again, that might be a mistake (that they are now starting to pay for), but IMO it's been the case and will likely continue to be for a while. It takes time for defensive attention to catch up to offensive capability for a given guy I think.

Like, if Giddey had shot 60% TS % last year instead of the .547 he actually had, he'd have scored only about 1 point more per game, even though we perceive the difference between.547 and .600 to be very big.

I just think the relationship between shooting efficiency and defensive attention is a lot less linear and more nuanced than we sometimes treat it as.

Good points. I'll add something I've seen since I've seen Giddey on the Bulls. All the talk about his athleticism made me think he wouldn't be great at driving and getting to the rim. That's not what I'm seeing. Actually looks like he drives more effectively when the first man is not right on him, because he's more a strong driver than a fast driver and doesn't have that quick first step. Add in the fact that he shoots a good percentage on those open threes when he does take them, think that balances some of the lack of gravity out. He'd rather drive and kick than shoot anyway, and I think he's best doing that a lot. Needs to work on finishing some of course, but that's looking better too.

[Chi town]

Truly great thread with exceptional statistical analysis going on the GB about Giddey.

viewtopic.php?f=6&t=2442298&p=117564220#p117564220

[kodo]

I know people can watch the same thing and see different things, but the level of defense I see out the guy in terms of staying in front of his man, contesting shots (that often results in missed shots), and being opportunistic with stocks, I would call "above average". Frankly, I see know difference between his play recently and what I characterized as good defense from PWill in prior years.

He's a great defender by my eye test and any metric I know of.

Defensive EPM (the gold standard AFAIK):
Giddey -0.4 (comparable guard/wings: Jaylen Brown, CP3)

P&R defensive PPP:
Giddey 51st percentile (comparables: Jalen Williams, Scottie Barnes, Deni Avdija)

Deflections:
Giddey 2.1 per game (comparables: Lonzo Ball, Scottie Barnes, Ant)

Contested shots per game:
Giddey 5.2 per game (best non-center on the Bulls)
Comparables: Deni Avdija, Josh Hart, Herb Jones

All this adds up to Giddey & Lonzo having the best defensive ratings on the team for non-centers, and both are actually equal to our centers Vuc & Collins and 1 point behind Smith. A PG giving you the same defensive effect as an additional center is crazy value (with the caveat our centers kinda suck defensively).

[sco]

Truly great thread with exceptional statistical analysis going on the GB about Giddey.

viewtopic.php?f=6&t=2442298&p=117564220#p117564220

Put it below to be easier to see. It does counter the notion that we couldn't add another guy who is a #1 and "needs the ball in his hands".

As a Bulls fan, the stats feel empty. Granted, anyone putting up these numbers at his age should be appreciated even if they are empty. I do believe that his reputation as a facilitator is overblown. He is a great passer but it isn't like the he quickly moves the ball around and creates an infectious attitude on the team. He over dribbles and still makes horrible decisions.

So just to throw out some numbers...

His Box Creation is at 6.6, though his Passer Rating is at 8.4. PlayVal 0.8. cTOV% is 12% (these are seasonal numbers, not for the stretch given). He's producing 10.9 potential assists per game. Specifically over the past 9 games, he's posting 14.0 potential assists per game, which is tied with Cade Cunningham for 8th in the league over that stretch (and is creating +0.4 points per assist compared to Cade). He's also making 14.5 more passes. That's... pretty good. Very much not empty. HIs time of possession is faster than someone like Shai, for reference, and notably so. He's actually pretty middle-of-the-pack in time of possession compared to other volume playmakers. His raw time of possession is considerably lower than Cade, Trae, Brunson, Lillard, Maxey, Harden... I could go on. It isn't even top-50 in the league (54th). Brunson tops at 8.7, and Giddey's at 4.1. He's at about 3.28 seconds per touch, which is so low it isn't even top 150 in the league. 2.92 dribbles per touch...

Now, over the past 9 games? All of that is a little higher (ToP 5.3, 3.56 seconds per touch, 3.18 dribbles per touch), but still so low that it doesn't even register as an issue relative to other guys in the league.

It doesn't invalidate your concern per se, but from a relative standpoint, he really doesn't take a lot of time compared to other guys who fill a similar role.

Very helpful. Confirms the eye test.

Cade is who I have been thinking about with Giddey but Giddey does play faster and doesn’t post up or back down. Maybe he adds that in the future.

[MissileMike]

@doug originally EPM was one of the main reasons you convinced me that the Giddey train was headed nowhere and he was one of the worst players in the nba. It seems now it's positive? Has this changed your opinion of JG at all? It seems you still have a negative view overall, though maybe it has softened a little.

[tsherkin]

*peeks in after the quote*

Just to add, sadly, I've not had a chance to watch much of Giddey in the stretch we're discussing. So ITT, I'm operating entirely by the numbers. I crunched some numbers and did a little normalization check. If he dropped to 37.5% 3P and 80% FT, he'd drop down to 21.4 ppg and 60.6% TS, which is still pretty excellent. Chi Town and I were discussing the draw rate, which I found a little puzzling, but I was missing the piece he mentioned ITT about Giddey getting to the rim more, looking for fouls more, like the visible difference in his approach to the game, which is relevant.

But yeah, Ctown had said something about him feeling empty-stats action for Giddey, and talked about him overdribbling and all that, so I wanted to throw some things in context. Hope it looks close to what you guys are seeing watching the games; he's having a hell of a stretch, but a lot of the peripheral stuff seems to be par for the course, right? The rebounding, the passing, none of that is particularly unusual for him based on his history.

[tsherkin]

@doug originally EPM was one of the main reasons you convinced me that the Giddey train was headed nowhere and he was one of the worst players in the nba. It seems now it's positive? Has this changed your opinion of JG at all? It seems you still have a negative view overall, though maybe it has softened a little.

On the season, he's at +0.8 O-EPM, FWIW. Dunno about during this stretch of 9 games, but obviously it is likely to be much better.

[dougthonus]

@doug originally EPM was one of the main reasons you convinced me that the Giddey train was headed nowhere and he was one of the worst players in the nba. It seems now it's positive? Has this changed your opinion of JG at all? It seems you still have a negative view overall, though maybe it has softened a little.

I'm not a massive believer in any of the +/- numbers (including EPM), I just think EPM is a lot better than net rating which is a lot better than raw +/-.

As for my overall view on Giddey, it is definitely softening some which overall has been back and forth. I really liked the move initially, I would said time to cut bait at the trade deadline, now I'm waiting to see what we have to pay him.

His offensive efficiency has remained pretty steady for awhile, and his shooting has improved. Numerically, he looks a lot better to me, and the eye test has been lagging the numbers to me a bit because the three point shot still has a low release and terrible form, but it's hard to deny that he's still shooting a lot better over a long stretch and getting more fouls drawn and becoming a bigger offensive threat.

On the season his numbers are still pretty 'meh' but do show improvement from last year, and the numbers over the last month are really good.

I'm still skeptical that Giddey is going to work out where he's a guy that would fit into most teams and thus be a trade asset and still may be a questionable fit for a team trying to rebuild because he raises your floor but doesn't help your ceiling, but I will say that if you told me that you were from the future and it works out great and that perception is wrong, then the last month is a very reasonable approximation of what I would expect it to look like right now.

In that sense, he is on about as good a path as one can reasonably expect with still plenty of room to go over the post Zach stretch, if it were the whole year and in a point he was playing with more star power, I would have a lot more confidence.

[WindyCityBorn]

@doug originally EPM was one of the main reasons you convinced me that the Giddey train was headed nowhere and he was one of the worst players in the nba. It seems now it's positive? Has this changed your opinion of JG at all? It seems you still have a negative view overall, though maybe it has softened a little.

I'm not a massive believer in any of the +/- numbers (including EPM), I just think EPM is a lot better than net rating which is a lot better than raw +/-.

As for my overall view on Giddey, it is definitely softening some which overall has been back and forth. I really liked the move initially, I would said time to cut bait at the trade deadline, now I'm waiting to see what we have to pay him.

His offensive efficiency has remained pretty steady for awhile, and his shooting has improved. Numerically, he looks a lot better to me, and the eye test has been lagging the numbers to me a bit because the three point shot still has a low release and terrible form, but it's hard to deny that he's still shooting a lot better over a long stretch and getting more fouls drawn and becoming a bigger offensive threat.

On the season his numbers are still pretty 'meh' but do show improvement from last year, and the numbers over the last month are really good.

I'm still skeptical that Giddey is going to work out where he's a guy that would fit into most teams and thus be a trade asset and still may be a questionable fit for a team trying to rebuild because he raises your floor but doesn't help your ceiling, but I will say that if you told me that you were from the future and it works out great and that perception is wrong, then the last month is a very reasonable approximation of what I would expect it to look like right now.

In that sense, he is on about as good a path as one can reasonably expect with still plenty of room to go over the post Zach stretch, if it were the whole year and in a point he was playing with more star power, I would have a lot more confidence.

I would say his recent games with Coby are showing he can play well next to a high volume scorer. Coby putting 30 ppg over the 3 game win streak hasn’t made Giddey any less effective. Tiny sample size, but it’s showing he doesn’t need the be the focus of the offense to produce.

As far as doing it the entire season he didn’t have the opportunity to do that.. He was the 4th or 5th option. Zach and Vuc were vets putting up all-star numbers and Coby was the clear #3. We were also still desperately trying to get Patrick Williams going.

[dougthonus]

I would say his recent games with Coby are showing he can play well next to a high volume scorer. Coby putting 30 ppg over the 3 game win streak hasn’t made Giddey any less effective. Tiny sample size, but it’s showing he doesn’t need the be the focus of the offense to produce.

As far as doing it the entire season he didn’t have the opportunity to do that.. He was the 4th or 5th option. Zach and Vuc were vets putting up all-star numbers and Coby was the clear #3. We were also still desperately trying to get Patrick Williams going.

I think that's definitely fair to an extent, but my complaints pre-deadline were around efficiency, and actually being efficient as the 4th option would be the thing that makes me feel a lot better about Giddey. I'm more nervous that he he piles up numbers on a bad team that isn't winning.

We've won 3 in a row now, so in the hyper short period, that is not true, but over the longer stretch it has been, and while the Pacers are at least an above .500 team, they were missing their best player in this game which again kind of pushes it towards a lower caliber opponent, as they're probably a sub .500 team without him.

At any rate, I feel a lot better about Giddey as a player than I think I will about Giddey as a player on the contract that he will likely sign. If he ends the season the way he's played the last month, I wouldn't be shocked if he ends up as a max guy which is a testament to how well he's played lately. I'd hate him on that contract.

I think my current view is something like: I'd love him at 20M. At 25M I'm good. At 30M I'm really queasy and probably wouldn't do it. More than that I'm in "this is a big mistake" territory.

My completely unsubstantiated belief (as it can't really be substantiated but is only a guess) is that our FO is probably pricing Giddey at 5M or more per year than my walk away money and as he improves, that situation doesn't change, it just raises the amount I would pay and our FO would pay but that gap still likely remains.

[MrSparkle]

Giddey’s passing can’t be taught. Hyper high-IQ and coordination to deliver the passes he makes.

Those ankles look like caramel brittle though. He’s very young, so you’d think it’ll get worse. But who knows, young Curry got $10M salary for his bad ankle report and ended up never hurting them again.

Which I keep coming back to… I wish Giddey was looking at a more reasonable contract. $30M is steep for his short sample size of star play and his ankle injuries (seems to be in the boot atleast once a year). Still think last year’s playoff benching should be another strike at the bargaining table. If we meet near the top of his demand, we’re getting into a pattern of gambling too high on the risk/reward scale. Which at this point, has back-fired with most the big deals (Zach, Vuc, Patrick).

If $30m is the number, then I’d stick to a 2Y deal. The risk of injury and falling back to ineffective TS% is too real.

[League Circles]

Giddey’s passing can’t be taught. Hyper high-IQ and coordination to deliver the passes he makes.

Those ankles look like caramel brittle though. He’s very young, so you’d think it’ll get worse. But who knows, young Curry got $10M salary for his bad ankle report and ended up never hurting them again.

Which I keep coming back to… I wish Giddey was looking at a more reasonable contract. $30M is steep for his short sample size of star play and his ankle injuries (seems to be in the boot atleast once a year). Still think last year’s playoff benching should be another strike at the bargaining table. If we meet near the top of his demand, we’re getting into a pattern of gambling too high on the risk/reward scale. Which at this point, has back-fired with most the big deals (Zach, Vuc, Patrick).

If $30m is the number, then I’d stick to a 2Y deal.

Every single player in the NBA wants a max deal. IIRC, the 30 mil figure is just what he was willing to sign an early extension for. That's all posturing. Most players will only sign an early extension for an overpay, whereas most teams will only do it for a bargain deal, which is why it doesn't happen a ton I don't think.

Now of course he'll probably ask for the same or more again, but it doesn't matter. All that matters is what offer we make him before he can talk to other teams.

I agree his ankles are a concern which is yet another reason he should be adding significant muscle to his flimsy frame as it would somewhat decrease the chance of such injuries.

[League Circles]

It's really hard to break out exactly, but FWIW, our February and March team TS%, eFG%, and points per game all seem unchanged from the overall season. Just food for thought regarding Giddey's impact. It's not very precise. I picked these metrics cause they were the best team offensive metrics available on bball reference where I could see monthly splits, so take it with a grain of salt. I didn't look at defense cause Vuc has been out and it would skew things.

[Andi Obst]

He’ll take qualifying off before getting low-balled. We don’t have the leverage you think we do.

I don't want to low-ball him, I want to be realistic for once. We gifted Vuc and Pat money. Time to stop that.

I don’t think we gifted Vuc a contract. He likely would have gotten around $20 million on the open market. The problem is that we never should kept him at all, but we were stupidly still in win now mode.

Absolutely not.

Second part is true, though.

[Infinity2152]

It's really hard to break out exactly, but FWIW, our February and March team TS%, eFG%, and points per game all seem unchanged from the overall season. Just food for thought regarding Giddey's impact. It's not very precise. I picked these metrics cause they were the best team offensive metrics available on bball reference where I could see monthly splits, so take it with a grain of salt. I didn't look at defense cause Vuc has been out and it would skew things.

Seems like you're saying our team TS%, eFG% and points per game didn't change much, even though we lost our best two scorers (Zach and Vuc) who were scoring extremely efficiently and Giddey took over the lead role. Is that correct?

Zach is at 64 TS%, 60 eFG% Vuc at 61 TS%, 59 eFG% and they took the most shots this year.

[League Circles]

It's really hard to break out exactly, but FWIW, our February and March team TS%, eFG%, and points per game all seem unchanged from the overall season. Just food for thought regarding Giddey's impact. It's not very precise. I picked these metrics cause they were the best team offensive metrics available on bball reference where I could see monthly splits, so take it with a grain of salt. I didn't look at defense cause Vuc has been out and it would skew things.

Seems like you're saying our team TS%, eFG% and points per game didn't change much, even though we lost our best two scorers (Zach and Vuc) who were scoring extremely efficiently and Giddey took over the lead role. Is that correct?

It might seem like that until you realize that Vuc's replacement is scoring more efficiently than he was and Coby in March has been on a huge hot streak. Lots of moving pieces - Huerter and Jones added to the rotation, etc. My main point is that the ostensible reason to keep Giddey is to bost team offense well above what it has been the past few years. So far no improvement in a small sample size with other factors at play. Always impossible to isolate individual impact, but we shouldn't only look at his individual stats. Yes we want go get some better star type scorers to play with Giddey, which will be hard, and maybe that would make it work well (or maybe just gime and further development could do the same), but having Giddey will obviously make it harder to add those types of guys due to his salary and role.

[Infinity2152]

It's really hard to break out exactly, but FWIW, our February and March team TS%, eFG%, and points per game all seem unchanged from the overall season. Just food for thought regarding Giddey's impact. It's not very precise. I picked these metrics cause they were the best team offensive metrics available on bball reference where I could see monthly splits, so take it with a grain of salt. I didn't look at defense cause Vuc has been out and it would skew things.

Seems like you're saying our team TS%, eFG% and points per game didn't change much, even though we lost our best two scorers (Zach and Vuc) who were scoring extremely efficiently and Giddey took over the lead role. Is that correct?

It might seem like that until you realize that Vuc's replacement is scoring more efficiently than he was and Coby in March has been on a huge hot streak. Lots of moving pieces - Huerter and Jones added to the rotation, etc. My main point is that the ostensible reason to keep Giddey is to bost team offense well above what it has been the past few years. So far no improvement in a small sample size with other factors at play. Always impossible to isolate individual impact, but we shouldn't only look at his individual stats. Yes we want go get some better star type scorers to play with Giddey, which will be hard, and maybe that would make it work well (or maybe just gime and further development could do the same), but having Giddey will obviously make it harder to add those types of guys due to his salary and role.

Sounds to me there's no way for Giddey to show he's improved the offense then. Coby's hot streak coincides with Giddey getting more minutes and leading the offense, Coby playing more off ball. Vuc's replacement wasn't scoring anywhere near as efficiently as Vuc before he started playing with Giddey. Huerter and Jones vs Zach Lavine, well. Both of them seem to be playing far better with Giddey than they were earlier this season. If you take away the two best scorers and replace them with castoffs, then the castoffs suddenly seem great, maybe Giddey's increased role and minutes have something to do with it. If we're looking at team stats, it would seem logical that any team losing Vuc and Lavine and replacing them with Huerter, Jones and Collins would be worse offensively. Two All Star starters vs three guys who barely got off the bench this same season. Can we be realistic, no one was expecting anything from Collins, Huerter, or Jones? Collins and Jones didn't even seem like they would get minutes at all.

Don't think the offense would improve with those guys if we had Prime Chris Paul in place of Giddey. Especially if he was already starting all season with the aforementioned All Stars and the swap happens mid-season. Zach and Vuc awere more efficient playing off Giddey than last year as well. All coincidence nearly every player next to Giddey is playing better?

[League Circles]

Seems like you're saying our team TS%, eFG% and points per game didn't change much, even though we lost our best two scorers (Zach and Vuc) who were scoring extremely efficiently and Giddey took over the lead role. Is that correct?

It might seem like that until you realize that Vuc's replacement is scoring more efficiently than he was and Coby in March has been on a huge hot streak. Lots of moving pieces - Huerter and Jones added to the rotation, etc. My main point is that the ostensible reason to keep Giddey is to bost team offense well above what it has been the past few years. So far no improvement in a small sample size with other factors at play. Always impossible to isolate individual impact, but we shouldn't only look at his individual stats. Yes we want go get some better star type scorers to play with Giddey, which will be hard, and maybe that would make it work well (or maybe just gime and further development could do the same), but having Giddey will obviously make it harder to add those types of guys due to his salary and role.

Sounds to me there's no way for Giddey to show he's improved the offense then. Vuc's replacement wasn't scoring anywhere near as efficiently as Vuc before he started playing with Giddey. Huerter and Jones vs Zach Lavine, well. Both of them seem to be playing far better with Giddey than they were earlier this season. If you take away the two best scorers and replace them with castoffs, then the castoffs suddenly seem great, maybe Giddey's increased role and minutes have something to do with it. If we're looking at team stats, it would seem logical that any team losing Vuc and Lavine and replacing them with Huerter, Jones and Collins would be worse offensively. Two All Star starters vs three guys who barely got off the bench this same season. Can we be realistic, no one was expecting anything from Collins, Huerter, or Jones? Collins and Jones didn't even seem like they would get minutes at all.

Don't think the offense would improve with those guys if we had Prime Chris Paul in place of Giddey. Especially if he was already starting all season with the aforementioned All Stars.

Good points, though I do think you're overstating how good Lavine and especially Vuc are and frankly the news guys are playing about how they did last year more or less. There is a reason that Collins and Huerter are getting paid legit money. They're pretty decent.

I'm not trying to say that Giddey isn't improving us. Just trying to say we shouldn't be focusing entirely on his individual numbers. Teams defend to win the game, not to keep one guy from being 70% of a "walking triple double".

[Infinity2152]

It might seem like that until you realize that Vuc's replacement is scoring more efficiently than he was and Coby in March has been on a huge hot streak. Lots of moving pieces - Huerter and Jones added to the rotation, etc. My main point is that the ostensible reason to keep Giddey is to bost team offense well above what it has been the past few years. So far no improvement in a small sample size with other factors at play. Always impossible to isolate individual impact, but we shouldn't only look at his individual stats. Yes we want go get some better star type scorers to play with Giddey, which will be hard, and maybe that would make it work well (or maybe just gime and further development could do the same), but having Giddey will obviously make it harder to add those types of guys due to his salary and role.

Sounds to me there's no way for Giddey to show he's improved the offense then. Vuc's replacement wasn't scoring anywhere near as efficiently as Vuc before he started playing with Giddey. Huerter and Jones vs Zach Lavine, well. Both of them seem to be playing far better with Giddey than they were earlier this season. If you take away the two best scorers and replace them with castoffs, then the castoffs suddenly seem great, maybe Giddey's increased role and minutes have something to do with it. If we're looking at team stats, it would seem logical that any team losing Vuc and Lavine and replacing them with Huerter, Jones and Collins would be worse offensively. Two All Star starters vs three guys who barely got off the bench this same season. Can we be realistic, no one was expecting anything from Collins, Huerter, or Jones? Collins and Jones didn't even seem like they would get minutes at all.

Don't think the offense would improve with those guys if we had Prime Chris Paul in place of Giddey. Especially if he was already starting all season with the aforementioned All Stars.

Good points, though I do think you're overstating how good Lavine and especially Vuc are and frankly the news guys are playing about how they did last year more or less. There is a reason that Collins and Huerter are getting paid legit money. They're pretty decent.

I'm not trying to say that Giddey isn't improving us. Just trying to say we shouldn't be focusing entirely on his individual numbers. Teams defend to win the game, not to keep one guy from being 70% of a "walking triple double".

Not trying to overstate. I think comparing Zach to Huerter and Vuc to Collins is pretty evident. Zach Collins played 11 minutes a game this year with the Spurs, averaging 4.6 pts, 2.8 rbs, 1.4 assts 57 TS%. With Bulls, 25 mins, 12.2 pts, 8.5 rbs, 2.7 assts, 67 TS%.
His TS% last year was 54%. Huerter's numbers are roughly the same as with the Kings. I think you're underestimating the weight of losing your teams two most efficient high volume scorers should have on your offense. Don't care what bench players replace them, there's a reason some guys start and some guys stay on the bench. When Jimmy Butler beat the entire TWolves starting lineup with the bench players, that says something about Jimmy. If Giddey can keep the Bulls as efficient with Jones, Huerter and Collins as it was with Lavine and Vuc, that seems very valuable.

Again, Zach and Vuc's efficiency was also way higher playing with Giddey than last year. And we had the great, better player, better floor spacing Caruso then plus Debo, who's always guarded tightly. Apparently, Vuc and Lavine should be guarded much tighter this year playing with Giddey, right? Since teams don't defend him? Shouldn't everybody but Giddey be shooting worse, not better?

[League Circles]

Sounds to me there's no way for Giddey to show he's improved the offense then. Vuc's replacement wasn't scoring anywhere near as efficiently as Vuc before he started playing with Giddey. Huerter and Jones vs Zach Lavine, well. Both of them seem to be playing far better with Giddey than they were earlier this season. If you take away the two best scorers and replace them with castoffs, then the castoffs suddenly seem great, maybe Giddey's increased role and minutes have something to do with it. If we're looking at team stats, it would seem logical that any team losing Vuc and Lavine and replacing them with Huerter, Jones and Collins would be worse offensively. Two All Star starters vs three guys who barely got off the bench this same season. Can we be realistic, no one was expecting anything from Collins, Huerter, or Jones? Collins and Jones didn't even seem like they would get minutes at all.

Don't think the offense would improve with those guys if we had Prime Chris Paul in place of Giddey. Especially if he was already starting all season with the aforementioned All Stars.

Good points, though I do think you're overstating how good Lavine and especially Vuc are and frankly the news guys are playing about how they did last year more or less. There is a reason that Collins and Huerter are getting paid legit money. They're pretty decent.

I'm not trying to say that Giddey isn't improving us. Just trying to say we shouldn't be focusing entirely on his individual numbers. Teams defend to win the game, not to keep one guy from being 70% of a "walking triple double".

Not trying to overstate. I think comparing Zach to Huerter and Vuc to Collins is pretty evident. Zach Collins played 11 minutes a game this year with the Spurs, averaging 4.6 pts, 2.8 rbs, 1.4 assts 57 TS%. With Bulls, 25 mins, 12.2 pts, 8.5 rbs, 2.7 assts, 67 TS%.
His TS% last year was 54%. Huerter's numbers are roughly the same as with the Kings. I think you're underestimating the weight of losing your teams two most efficient high volume scorers should have on your offense. Don't care what bench players replace them, there's a reason some guys start and some guys stay on the bench. When Jimmy Butler beat the entire TWolves starting lineup with the bench players, that says something about Jimmy. If Giddey can keep the Bulls as efficient with Jones, Huerter and Collins as it was with Lavine and Vuc, that seems very valuable.

Again, Zach and Vuc's efficiency was also way higher playing with Giddey than last year. And we had the great, better player, better floor spacing Caruso then. Apparently, Vuc and Lavine should be guarded much tighter this year playing with Giddey, right? Since teams don't defend him? Shouldn't everybody but Giddey be shooting worse, not better?

Again, good points, but there's lots of factors. Giddey effectively replaced Demar who wasn't much of a guy to run an offense. Also Tre Jones has been a lot better than Patrick and essentially replaced him since the trade. My only point is that until and unless a team offense is actually outright good, we shouldn't draw firm conclusions about how good any one player is. Even then of course you can't purely isolate. Good or even great players can be on bad teams or offenses, but good numbers on a bad team isn't always about the other guys. This is why I mostly use eye test for anything holistic.