OT: Bears Talk - Justin Fields era begins

[fleet]

the only move that is worth bellyaching about is Mitch over Watson/Mahomes.That same aggressiveness is what got us Fields so while it was a worthwhile discussion to talk about whether Pace deserves to keep his job - he kept it and IMO saved it by hitting a grand slam in Fields

Not the same. Circumstances (and probably execution) were way different. Some would call it aggressiveness. others would call it no choice no brainer once a bunch of *dumb teams passed Fields up. The move fueled entirely by a desperate embarrassment the Bears had built at the position. A man crawling through the desert (that he put himself in by mistakes) lunged at a cool glass of water that suddenly appeared in front of him. Not a ton of credit is issued, especially while shooting undisciplined holes in the bottom of the boat Fields will be captain of. Imagine a disciplined GM and a stocked team that doesn’t trade up for 7 years and just takes BPAs. That includes QBs. Presumptuous to assume Pace has saved anything. This discussion will be going on all year into next offseason, and there is definitely not a place in the lineup written in pen for Mr Pace next season at this point.



*We believe.

[Susan]

The Bears don't need to be in win now mode to make practical smart moves to improve their roster. Multiple awful decisions from Pace over the years have quickly added more positional areas of need and financial inflexibility, changing what might be Fields-led team contending for SBs in maybe two years to maybe after Fields' next contract.

Pace often tends to get cute with a lot of the guys he falls in love with, many under the radar guys. While he has hit on some of them, he has wasted so much unnecessary draft capital in the process. Even if they really liked Jenkins, there were other similar value OTs in the draft with limited risk, high floor. Cosmi might have fallen one pick to 52 if the Bears never trade up for Jenkins, and the Bears don't lose the draft capital. Trading up to pick Montgomery when there are scores of guys of similar available every year, or fixating on TE last year because he couldn't figure it out the previous 3ish years. I'm hopeful for Kmet's progression but you wouldn't need to draft a 2nd round tight end and could have had someone like Winfield Jr, the most obvious NFL-ready guy after Rd 1.

I hope Fields is a star and can minimize some of this team's flaws over the next few years as the roster is rebuilt to competency along multiple position groups. Fun relevant football may be near.

David Montgomery has been the most productive back from that draft class (based on AV from this link). So no, there aren't similar guys available every year, he has been the best from that crop and there's nobody drafted after him that I would take over him (Mattison/Pollard are the only ones worth mentioning but they're still well unproven compared to Monty). Beleaguering Pace for trading up to draft Montgomery is absurd.

PFF RB rankings from that draft heading into the season:

9 jacobs
13 montgomery
19 sanders
22 singletary

so yes, trading up to take montgomery one spot over singletary looks fine right now

The Bears were 8-8, 8-8 and 12-4 without a franchise QB

you left out 3-13, 5-11 and 6-10. you can reasonably throw out year 1 of an nfl GM's tenure, but not his first 3 years

and mitch's pro bowl season was easily the primary reason that the bears went 12-4. the offense improved by a whopping 9.8 points per game that season, the already young and good defense by only 2.3. the next season? offense regresses almost all the way back (minus 8.8 ppg), defense regresses slightly (0.9 ppg), and voila: back to 8-8

nagy gets credit for the 12-4, but because he traded up for a guy who DID happen to play like a franchise QB that season

and, of course, he did have the opportunity to stand pat or even trade down and take that franchise QB. he instead traded up for a guy who he thought was head and shoulders better. taken with one of the picks used to trade up? alvin kamara

the only move that is worth bellyaching about is Mitch over Watson/Mahomes.That same aggressiveness is what got us Fields so while it was a worthwhile discussion to talk about whether Pace deserves to keep his job - he kept it and IMO saved it by hitting a grand slam in Fields.

it's already a grand slam? he hasn't played a single meaningful game yet. even being a long-term franchise QB wouldn't make the deal a grand slam

Let's see what Jenkins looks like when he finally gets on the field. Let's see what Borom looks when he gets on the field. If one of them pans out, that would be huge, if both + JF1 pan out, that's a draft for the ages.

i'm sure that there have been many, many drafts where each of a GM's first 3 picks pans out

Do you know what "IMO" means? In my opinion, the Justin Fields pick was a grand slam - I'm extremely high on him (and have been since watching him beatdown the chosen one Trevor Lawrence in the Elite 11 camp).

If Fields pans out and reaches his potential, he'll be one of the most impactful players in the NFL in the most valuable position in all of sports- if Jenkins and Borom are starting level tackles, that would set the Bears up to having extreme value at 3 of the most expensive positions in the game. Considering where they were leading up to the draft, where they were drafting and Justin Fields' pedigree, that move trading up for him was one of the most franchise altering moves in recent memory.

[nomorezorro]

the thing to me about pace is, what does he do well that you couldn't reasonably expect to replicate if you fired him, and what does he do poorly that you could reasonably expect to improve on if you hired someone else?

something like the fields trade is not a particularly impressive move for a gm to have made, even if i'm happy he made it. we were super desperate for a qb (because pace has been terrible at identifying talent at that position), and we traded up for a guy who was a consensus top-2 prospect in this draft class until he fell for potentially silly reasons. kudos for not being overly conservative, i guess, but it's not the kind of move that makes me think pace is a great gm

from what i can tell, pace's primary strength as a gm has been identifying late-round talent, which is really useful and which a replacement probably wouldn't be able to replicate. but he's been bad at cap management and understanding positional value, which really feel like basic competencies a modern nfl GM should have. he's also struggled to put together a good offense, made questionable coaching hires, missed on a lot of early draft picks, has been overly aggressive in moving up for specific players in the draft without a track record of that strategy panning out, etc.

every GM is gonna have some weaknesses, and some things are more bad luck than a failure in execution, but still, on balance i think the upside of moving on from pace far outweighs the risk

[fleet]

I thought I just heard on the Score that the Bears will lead the NFL in dead cap money next season.

[fleet]

They have another window now, and once again it's going to be dependent on Justin Fields. We all feel a whole lot better about the future now because we believe in Justin as a prospect. Next off season Robert Quinn's contract has an out in it, they're going to have cap space, a franchise QB on a rookie deal along with Montgomery, Kmet, Johnson, Mooney and whoever else emerges on rookie deals along with Khalil Mack and Roquan Smith still on the roster. There's another chance for a window to open once again.

It would be nice, but the Bears didn’t execute any such plan around Fields. The 2022 cap situation. The Bears cannot take advantage of Fields’ contract, they have mismanaged the cap this year going into next year beyond, and holes keep popping up without a full sleigh of picks or money to fill them.

Looking ahead to 2022, the Bears’ dead cap is more than concerning, as they’re on the hook for $12.77 million in dead cap next season due to cuts and void years.

QB Andy Dalton – $5M
TE Jimmy Graham – $4.66M
RT Germain Ifedi – $1.5M
S Tashaun Gipson – $750K
TE Jesse James – $487.5K
RB Damien Williams – $375K

And things could look a lot worse if the Bears move on from outside linebacker Robert Quinn ($9.3 million), linebacker Danny Trevathan ($8.9 million) and quarterback Nick Foles ($7.6 million), which would bring Chicago’s dead-cap total to nearly $40 million.

With the 2022 salary cap projected to be $208.2 million, Chicago’s current $12.77 million will give them a salary cap of $195.43 million. And that’s before any anticipated moves, including Quinn and Foles (who would combine for $29.7 million in dead cap), which would leave the bears with just $187.5 million to work with.

The Bears continue to push money to the future, which shows they’re confident they can contend this season. Even though it might ultimately hurt them down the line, especially with quarterback Justin Fields on a rookie deal.

https://bearswire.usatoday.com/2021/09/07/chicago-bears-jimmy-graham-contract-restructure-dead-cap-concerns/

[IliketheBullsNBearstoo]

Ah anyways. Go Bears!

Beat LA!

[Susan]

They have another window now, and once again it's going to be dependent on Justin Fields. We all feel a whole lot better about the future now because we believe in Justin as a prospect. Next off season Robert Quinn's contract has an out in it, they're going to have cap space, a franchise QB on a rookie deal along with Montgomery, Kmet, Johnson, Mooney and whoever else emerges on rookie deals along with Khalil Mack and Roquan Smith still on the roster. There's another chance for a window to open once again.

It would be nice, but the Bears didn’t execute any such plan around Fields. The 2022 cap situation. The Bears cannot take advantage of Fields’ contract, they have mismanaged the cap this year going into next year beyond, and holes keep popping up without a full sleigh of picks or money to fill them.

Looking ahead to 2022, the Bears’ dead cap is more than concerning, as they’re on the hook for $12.77 million in dead cap next season due to cuts and void years.

QB Andy Dalton – $5M
TE Jimmy Graham – $4.66M
RT Germain Ifedi – $1.5M
S Tashaun Gipson – $750K
TE Jesse James – $487.5K
RB Damien Williams – $375K

And things could look a lot worse if the Bears move on from outside linebacker Robert Quinn ($9.3 million), linebacker Danny Trevathan ($8.9 million) and quarterback Nick Foles ($7.6 million), which would bring Chicago’s dead-cap total to nearly $40 million.

With the 2022 salary cap projected to be $208.2 million, Chicago’s current $12.77 million will give them a salary cap of $195.43 million. And that’s before any anticipated moves, including Quinn and Foles (who would combine for $29.7 million in dead cap), which would leave the bears with just $187.5 million to work with.

The Bears continue to push money to the future, which shows they’re confident they can contend this season. Even though it might ultimately hurt them down the line, especially with quarterback Justin Fields on a rookie deal.

https://bearswire.usatoday.com/2021/09/07/chicago-bears-jimmy-graham-contract-restructure-dead-cap-concerns/

Quinn's owed $3m/year over the next 3 years in dead cap space, they'd barely save any money cutting Foles/Danny. Graham costs a little over $1m/year for the next 4 years and Dalton $5m next year. Even given that, they're going to have some money to spend.

They're not the only team that got caught with their pants down because the downtick in revenue from COVID brought the cap down.

[Posey H8er]

I'm fine with the risk.

DK Metcalf fell to the late 2nd round because of a neck injury, Jenkins tried to get ready for the season, clearly fell short because of the injury and he got surgery.

This team isn't a win-now team, they're going to try and to do that with Dalton but it's a joke and is going to fall short. Hopefully Jenkins recovers and they can get him on the field in the second half of the season. Get him and Borom out there and develop them alongside Kmet, Mooney, and Khalil Herbert so we can go into the offseason with a good, young offensive core to go alongside Fields.

The Bears don't need to be in win now mode to make practical smart moves to improve their roster. Multiple awful decisions from Pace over the years have quickly added more positional areas of need and financial inflexibility, changing what might be Fields-led team contending for SBs in maybe two years to maybe after Fields' next contract.

Pace often tends to get cute with a lot of the guys he falls in love with, many under the radar guys. While he has hit on some of them, he has wasted so much unnecessary draft capital in the process. Even if they really liked Jenkins, there were other similar value OTs in the draft with limited risk, high floor. Cosmi might have fallen one pick to 52 if the Bears never trade up for Jenkins, and the Bears don't lose the draft capital. Trading up to pick Montgomery when there are scores of guys of similar available every year, or fixating on TE last year because he couldn't figure it out the previous 3ish years. I'm hopeful for Kmet's progression but you wouldn't need to draft a 2nd round tight end and could have had someone like Winfield Jr, the most obvious NFL-ready guy after Rd 1.

I hope Fields is a star and can minimize some of this team's flaws over the next few years as the roster is rebuilt to competency along multiple position groups. Fun relevant football may be near.

David Montgomery has been the most productive back from that draft class (based on AV from this link). So no, there aren't similar guys available every year, he has been the best from that crop and there's nobody drafted after him that I would take over him (Mattison/Pollard are the only ones worth mentioning but they're still well unproven compared to Monty). Beleaguering Pace for trading up to draft Montgomery is absurd.

The Bears were 8-8, 8-8 and 12-4 without a franchise QB, the only move that is worth bellyaching about is Mitch over Watson/Mahomes. That same aggressiveness is what got us Fields so while it was a worthwhile discussion to talk about whether Pace deserves to keep his job - he kept it and IMO saved it by hitting a grand slam in Fields.

Let's see what Jenkins looks like when he finally gets on the field. Let's see what Borom looks when he gets on the field. If one of them pans out, that would be huge, if both + JF1 pan out, that's a draft for the ages.

I was beleaguering the point that Pace nonchalantly spends draft capital at the expense of the complete roster, when his drafting, whether you look surface level or into the analytics, is subpar. When you get past the 1st and 2nd rounds, hits on successful NFL contributors become more random. There are some outlier organizations like Baltimore who seem to annually draft better than average. But a lot of their success sometimes comes from the quantity of picks since it's easier to hit when you have more chances. Trade for organization changing potential like Fields, 100%. Regularly trading up in the latter rounds is just not sustainable for building a roster, especially when you're not among the best GMs at evaluating talent.

I like Montgomery and I'm glad he has worked out amongst what already seems like a weak overall 2019 RB class. But the point was more about how the RB position is less important 2021 unless you are a game changing talent like McCaffrey, Kamara, etc. A high performing offensive line in the league can make an average running back put up quality numbers when at a minimum you're getting positive push at the LOS almost every play.

And yeah everyone buries him for drafting Trubisky, but that's not even the worst part of picking Mitch. He liked Mitch, as did many around the league. Revisionist history seems to present a world where everyone knew he would be a bust and Mahomes was a future MVP. Pace's true offense was trading 3 picks to move up a spot when there was little indication any other team was trying to move up, let alone rival the Bears' offer.

I credit Pace when his moves pan out. But I also don't think just highlighting those erases his entire body of work which has been at best, lukewarm.

[GetBuLLish]

This is what gets aggravating about these guys. They have again made some decisions that have been questionable. But they are not honest, and they don’t own it. Pace did the same exact thing Nagy did, and so obviously this is intentional and thought out. Instead of owning it and admitting they thought it was worth doing despite the injury, they sort of insult everyone and try to get over. Just be honest. Glad that Miller] makes it clear about the Bears.

Seems like an annual occurrence that Pace falls head over heels for a draft prospect and gives up way too much to get him. Really is aggravating.

[fleet]

They have another window now, and once again it's going to be dependent on Justin Fields. We all feel a whole lot better about the future now because we believe in Justin as a prospect. Next off season Robert Quinn's contract has an out in it, they're going to have cap space, a franchise QB on a rookie deal along with Montgomery, Kmet, Johnson, Mooney and whoever else emerges on rookie deals along with Khalil Mack and Roquan Smith still on the roster. There's another chance for a window to open once again.

It would be nice, but the Bears didn’t execute any such plan around Fields. The 2022 cap situation. The Bears cannot take advantage of Fields’ contract, they have mismanaged the cap this year going into next year beyond, and holes keep popping up without a full sleigh of picks or money to fill them.

Looking ahead to 2022, the Bears’ dead cap is more than concerning, as they’re on the hook for $12.77 million in dead cap next season due to cuts and void years.

QB Andy Dalton – $5M
TE Jimmy Graham – $4.66M
RT Germain Ifedi – $1.5M
S Tashaun Gipson – $750K
TE Jesse James – $487.5K
RB Damien Williams – $375K

And things could look a lot worse if the Bears move on from outside linebacker Robert Quinn ($9.3 million), linebacker Danny Trevathan ($8.9 million) and quarterback Nick Foles ($7.6 million), which would bring Chicago’s dead-cap total to nearly $40 million.

With the 2022 salary cap projected to be $208.2 million, Chicago’s current $12.77 million will give them a salary cap of $195.43 million. And that’s before any anticipated moves, including Quinn and Foles (who would combine for $29.7 million in dead cap), which would leave the bears with just $187.5 million to work with.

The Bears continue to push money to the future, which shows they’re confident they can contend this season. Even though it might ultimately hurt them down the line, especially with quarterback Justin Fields on a rookie deal.

https://bearswire.usatoday.com/2021/09/07/chicago-bears-jimmy-graham-contract-restructure-dead-cap-concerns/

Quinn's owed $3m/year over the next 3 years in dead cap space, they'd barely save any money cutting Foles/Danny. Graham costs a little over $1m/year for the next 4 years and Dalton $5m next year. Even given that, they're going to have some money to spend.

They're not the only team that got caught with their pants down because the downtick in revenue from COVID brought the cap down.

If that was the case we would have money spent on the O line and secondary. That is not reality, this only gets worse.

Talking about not being the only team. They can certainly not be the worst in the NFL.

[moorhosj]

If that was the case we would have money spent on the O line and secondary. That is not reality, this only gets worse.

Talking about not being the only team. They can certainly not be the worst in the NFL.

Looking at the dead cap numbers for 2022 before 2021 has started isn’t going to tell the whole story. If you are able cut Quinn next year because Trevis Gipson performs well, that is a net positive.

As far as dead cap in 2021, the Rams are 4th and the Saints are 5th. 2 GMs I hear lots of positive things about.

[fleet]

If that was the case we would have money spent on the O line and secondary. That is not reality, this only gets worse.

Talking about not being the only team. They can certainly not be the worst in the NFL.

Looking at the dead cap numbers for 2022 before 2021 has started isn’t going to tell the whole story. If you are able cut Quinn next year because Trevis Gipson performs well, that is a net positive.

As far as dead cap in 2021, the Rams are 4th and the Saints are 5th. 2 GMs I hear lots of positive things about.

Not sure what is net positive about 40 million in dead cap when you are an old bad team with no picks before you have make other signings of your own. That’s a little different than some other teams out there. *Understatement included*

[dougthonus]

Not the same. Circumstances (and probably execution) were way different. Some would call it aggressiveness. others would call it no choice no brainer once a bunch of *dumb teams passed Fields up. The move fueled entirely by a desperate embarrassment the Bears had built at the position. A man crawling through the desert (that he put himself in by mistakes) lunged at a cool glass of water that suddenly appeared in front of him. Not a ton of credit is issued, especially while shooting undisciplined holes in the bottom of the boat Fields will be captain of. Imagine a disciplined GM and a stocked team that doesn’t trade up for 7 years and just takes BPAs. That includes QBs. Presumptuous to assume Pace has saved anything. This discussion will be going on all year into next offseason, and there is definitely not a place in the lineup written in pen for Mr Pace next season at this point.

I think that's an unnecessarily harsh and unfair way to view Pace, it's like casting him as villain instead of just looking at it rationally.

Trubisky didn't work out, he needed to get a new guy, anyone in the job would be seeking a new guy at this point. He made a move to get that guy which is also a popular move with the fans at this point.

Whether he saved his job or not, who knows. However, this singular move is certainly one fans agree with and there is no reason to think it was done out of any level of desperation other than the level of desperation he would always have to make good moves for his team. It certainly wasn't some amazing "win now" move where he sold the farm for short term gains, it was a quality long term move for the betterment of the franchise.

I don't think Pace has been all that great in the role, nor do I think he has been awful, I think he's been solidly in the middle. Same with Nagy for me. I would not be upset if we move on from both guys, but when I see people use phrases like desperation, that makes me think of very short sighted smoke and mirror type moves. That isn't what happened here.

While they clearly aren't "desperate", the Bulls moves to trade out all their future assets for their current team is a set of moves you could view as desperate. They went all in on short term moves for a team that still doesn't project to be so great. If AKME had been here for five years, I think people would definitely view those moves as desperation moves.

[fleet]

Doug. I am irrational. Thank you for your perspective

[superdave]

For the record, Fields was a great great pick. He probably buys Pace and Nagy 2 more years.

I would actually be OK with retaining Pace if we let Nagy go. Just look at his results as a play caller. He shows so little feel for the game and the team routinely looks rushed and out of order. I just read an article saying Nagy has called 7 30pt or more offensive games over 3 years (while Lazor had 4 just partially through last season). Yet stubbornly he’s back at it this year. With an aging defense which will finally fall out of top 10, Nagy will be exposed this year.

[moorhosj]

Not sure what is net positive about 40 million in dead cap when you are an old bad team with no picks before you have make other signings of your own. That’s a little different than some other teams out there. *Understatement included*

The net positive is if Gipson performs, you can cut Quinn. Along with his dead cap number would be $6.7 million in freed up cap space.

If (Gipson + $6.7 million) outperforms Quinn, you are in a better spot. That doesn’t fix the original mistake of overpaying Quinn, but it isn’t crippling in any way. Every NFL team has contracts like this.

[fleet]

that certainly is a sunny approach to looking at additions to he Bears’ dead cap hit.

[Susan]

that certainly is a sunny approach to looking at additions to he Bears’ dead cap hit.

I can't imagine how you'd cope with Carson Wentz's dead cap number this year.

[Susan]

Read on Twitter

[Susan]

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/cap/2022/

Looks like there's quite a bit of money that they'll be able to spend next year but quite a few roster spots needed to fill relative to the rest of the NFL. They've done a good job finding bargain bin FA players (Jesse James, Ogletree, Ifedi, Gibson, the slew of DLinemen that have come through here like Brett Urban).

I expect them to be running a lot of 2TE sets considering their depth at TE and lack of it at WR. If they're able to get the running game going, they'll be alright on offense like they were to finish last year, if not, it's going to be ugly.