Josh Giddey Thread 2.0

[dougthonus]

As for Giddey, the way he was used post-trade was certainly more than a rotation player. He was a lead guard. Time will tell if he can sustain that long-term in a positive way, but certainly part of the appeal with Giddey is long-term potential. The Bulls and OKC are in very different places w/different needs... not to mention, Giddey asked to be traded so that he could have an opportunity at a bigger role. All that said, he was the 4th best player on a 57-win team as a 21-year-old, so he is seemingly close to what you are asking for.

Do you think Giddey can be the lead guard on a good team? If so, he's worth a lot of money. As I said, I don't believe that. Part of this is your holistic strategy for the team. I do not believe in the value of paying a low tier lead guard a lot of money because he plays the role of lead guard poorly, but lead guards make a lot of money. I would pay a guy based on the role he plays well and the value of that role, and how he fits into a good team.

As for OKC, they most definitely viewed him as a rotation player only fit for specific niche's. He was at best their 5th best player (SGA, Williams, Dort, Chet clearly ahead of him both in minutes and impact). They had a candid discussion with him after the season was over that they didn't view him as a starter and both sides mutually agreed to seek a trade.

But whether he was 4th or 5th best is sort of irrelevant, because the needle is moved like 90% by your top 2-3 guys depending on your team make up, and Giddey was absolutely not moving the needle in a meaningful way (and likely not even a positive way) for OKC that year.

But again, ultimately, a lot of this (all my posts included) is word salad, because I don't think the opinions on how much to pay Giddey really vary by all that much. A lot of the optimism or pessimism in specific posts is based on the points replied to more so than what is likely a significant gap in view of the his value. In the end, a lot of semantic arguments, but probably 90% of us are within like 5M AAV of each other which is closer than the Bulls and Giddey are

[Red Larrivee]

I suppose the way I would describe AC is super role player. This guy is elite in his role. He also only played 20 minutes because OKC is deep and also to preserve him for a deep playoff run.

As for Giddey, the way he was used post-trade was certainly more than a rotation player. He was a lead guard. Time will tell if he can sustain that long-term in a positive way, but certainly part of the appeal with Giddey is long-term potential. The Bulls and OKC are in very different places w/different needs... not to mention, Giddey asked to be traded so that he could have an opportunity at a bigger role. All that said, he was the 4th best player on a 57-win team as a 21-year-old, so he is seemingly close to what you are asking for.

I agree. Just because OKC got better after trading Giddey for a player who does completely different things, doesn't mean that Giddey can't be one of the best players on a good team. OKC was trading from a clear position of strength. They didn't need more ball handling and usage.

On the flip side, the Bulls do need those things. And, once they shifted the team to better fit the skills of that player, he played much better. That version of Giddey with the 38% 3P shot could play next to other great players.

It seems probable that the Bulls are going to sign Giddey for somewhere between 20-25M AAV. And from reports, it's probably closer to the 20M mark than 25M. If that's true, then there's a lot of flexibility for outcomes in that number. If Giddey never becomes a Top-3 player on a good team, then there's no harm and he's still paid reasonably. But if he does, then you got a complete steal.

[Infinity2152]

Josh Giddey played 31.5 and 31.1 minutes his first two years. Starter minutes. All starts. He played 25 minutes his last season. Somehow, all starts. This low opinion of Giddey by the Thunder does not fit the fact that he started every single game he played for the Thunder for 3 years until a last couple of games in the playoffs. Holgrem missed his entire first year, he only played one year with Giddey. Holgrem got 29 minutes as the only big, Giddey 25. Holgrem played 27 mins/gm for 32 games last season, not a ton of minutes for that guy. He missed over half the season and Caruso still only got 3 starts, lol.

They drafted Jalen Williams in 2022. he played 30.3 minutes. Giddey played 31.1. Williams and Holgrem played more minutes than Giddey exactly one year, the season Giddey played 25. He's the only one of the three who had a MVP playing his best position.

They were not clearly ahead of him in minutes. As a matter of fact, he played more minutes his rookie season than either. The Thunder clearly believed in him. It was crowded at PG, he had to start at another position, hence less minutes.

[dougthonus]

I notice when I ask for alternatives, crickets. Some future draft prospect. We'll find a guy later.

Coby, Ayo, Tre, and Carter rotating at PG is already a good enough alternative for me that I do not need to seek an alternative in the market place. We have viable alternatives already on the roster IMO. I'm not convinced the team will be meaningfully worse if Giddey wasn't on it and was replaced by another rotation caliber player.

You forgot the green font.

I think that in my head every time someone tries to convince me Giddey is going to be great as a lead guard on a good team or that Giddey is going to be effective playing next to a different lead guard without the ball in his hands.

[Infinity2152]

I mean, all he can do is go out there on the court and keep putting up buckets, racking up assists, rebounding the ball, LEADING the team. If your analytics say he's still a bad lead guard, don't think he cares. Points at the end of the game, the rebounds and assists that got you there, that's what wins games. I'm definitely not trying to convince anybody of how great he is, any more than anybody's going to convince me he sucks because of analytics. Don't have to go back far to find opinions Giddey isn't worth the MLE.

It's like the argument keeps getting exaggerated. Nobody has said Giddey's a perennial All Star. He should be compared to people in his contract range. That's how the market works. Great lead guard is Steph Curry, Haliburton, Brunson, Irving. It's also much older and $50+ million. Saying Coby, Jones and Ayo are acceptable lead guards, then hell yeah, compared to them Giddey's a GREAT lead guard. I'll say that. Compared to most $20-$30 mill players, he'll probably be as good or better than most in that range. We could list the guys, but we've done that and it's too easy.

And even if Coby's as good a lead guard as he is, he's reportedly looking for over $30 mill.

[Indomitable]

So as of 17 hours ago Jake Fischer is reporting that GSW have expressed an interest in Giddey. Anyone know how reliable this Fischer guy has been?

Giddey has an Aussie friend he works out with who GSW have (I believe) control over and are expected to sign. They also have another Aussie player. Knowing this front office, the Bulls will end up with Kuminga and Giddey will head to Golden State. They will pay Kuminga 20 mil, and will lose Giddey due to stubborness over 4 or 5 million per. That would be an AKME move.

The Bulls could sign Giddey and get Kuminga with cap space next year. If we want Kuminga.

This is just nonsense. All of this Warriors nonsense.

Sure they could. If Giddey is willing .

This only works if the Bulls agree. The Bulls are not trying to make friends.

They actually are acting like they should. Which is shocking after the Pat Williams debacle.

[Red8911]

Now you’re just doing exactly what you do with Vuc, which is under rating the guy.How can the team not be worse without Giddey? lol.

The other guards are solid rotational players but not even starting level players. This is just another terrible take from you, acting as if Giddey and Vuc are scrubs.

The Thunder traded Giddey for a role playing defensive oriented bench guard and got dramatically better for it. So no, I don't think Giddey moves the needle vs other rotation caliber players. He's a rotation player himself. He's not a star player.

What Giddey did in OKC is now history. They had their reasons for the trade and so did the Bulls. It ended up being a good trade for both sides. Let’s focus on today’s improved Giddey playing for the Bulls.What role he had in OKC as a developing young player doesn’t matter anymore.

I disagree, I think he is a star level player and played like one for 20 games. If he re signs and the Bulls win enough games I bet he will be named an all star but even if he isn’t he should be able to put up those same impressive numbers.

I don’t think I’m over rating him either, he has already proved what he can do and it’s significantly more than average guards like Ayo.

[sco]

I use this tired analogy way too often, but I'm reading these past few pages and I'm reminded of those too late nights at bars when I much younger - they went something like (gender's removed so as not to offend):

Person 1: You see that person at the bar? They are so hot.

Person 2: No way Person 1! If we were in one of those fancy bars, you'd be clawing your eyes out after looking at that person at the bar!

My point other than much of the humor is lost trying to be PC, is that it is very hard to have an objective view of whether Giddey is an objectively very good player because we weren't a good team and we weren't playing good teams (for the most part) during the stretch of good play. I would go so far as to say, if Giddey played as good as he did post-ASG for a whole season, there wouldn't be any debate.

[waffle]

a shorter, higher per year deal seems sensible

3/75, maybe an option on the 4th for 20 or somesuch

I think Giddey is good.....I think he helps this team. 3 years isn't going to kill us one way or another

[Infinity2152]

I use this tired analogy way too often, but I'm reading these past few pages and I'm reminded of those too late nights at bars when I much younger - they went something like (gender's removed so as not to offend):

Person 1: You see that person at the bar? They are so hot.

Person 2: No way Person 1! If we were in one of those fancy bars, you'd be clawing your eyes out after looking at that person at the bar!

My point other than much of the humor is lost trying to be PC, is that it is very hard to have an objective view of whether Giddey is an objectively very good player because we weren't a good team and we weren't playing good teams (for the most part) during the stretch of good play. I would go so far as to say, if Giddey played as good as he did post-ASG for a whole season, there wouldn't be any debate.

Can rock with that. Let me stretch your analogy, lol. Persons 1 and 2 look like fours, and the person they're talking about is a 6 or 7. Would say the Bulls roster minus Giddey is one of the least attractive rosters in the league, and at worst Giddey is a top 3-4 player on the team, in the top 60-70% player in the league at least.

[dougthonus]

Would say the Bulls roster minus Giddey is one of the least attractive rosters in the league, and at worst Giddey is a top 3-4 player on the team, in the top 50-60% player in the league at least.

FWIW, I think this undersells Giddey.

He's either the best or 2nd best guy on the Bulls (Coby being the only comparison)
He's in the top 1/3rd of the league

Like I said, a lot of the debate here is just diving super deep into the rabbit hole and semantics around words like "star" and "lead guard" and whatever else. Not sure there is a person in this thread whose number on how much to pay Giddey isn't within 5M of the 25M dollar range I'm at, which again, means the overall opinions on his value aren't really all that different, and people just get caught up in the nuance of whether they are glass half full or half empty or replying to some specific point or whatever else.

I sometimes wonder if the Bulls and Giddey also both know they will land around 25M, but they have this dumb song and dance to ensure they don't end up higher/lower than that number by starting closer to that number then having the other side try to "meet in the middle".

[Infinity2152]

Would say the Bulls roster minus Giddey is one of the least attractive rosters in the league, and at worst Giddey is a top 3-4 player on the team, in the top 50-60% player in the league at least.

FWIW, I think this undersells Giddey.

He's either the best or 2nd best guy on the Bulls (Coby being the only comparison)
He's in the top 1/3rd of the league

Like I said, a lot of the debate here is just diving super deep into the rabbit hole and semantics around words like "star" and "lead guard" and whatever else. Not sure there is a person in this thread whose number on how much to pay Giddey isn't within 5M of the 25M dollar range I'm at, which again, means the overall opinions on his value aren't really all that different, and people just get caught up in the nuance of whether they are glass half full or half empty or replying to some specific point or whatever else.

Agree bro. We're all just talking cause there's nothing else to talk about, lmao! As long as they don't lose him, a few mill either way isn't going to make or break us the next few years, regardless of whether he improves or stays the same, capwise. Now we lose him, that's when the real battle begins!

As far as risk/reward, don't think we'll ever be in a better situation to take a little risk and works for a longer control contract. Playing the odds either way, but we'll have a ton of immediate cap and giving him a little more now could pay off big time, rather than having to come back to the table again. He works out, how does he feel at the next contract negotiation in 2-3 years with a short term contract. Nail us to the wall or be gone, probably.

Think the fifth year at $25 mill is gone probably. Maybe the fourth. I think he plays well for us, he stays here, and we really regret not paying him $25 AAV when we're looking at $40-$60 mill.

[HomoSapien]

Do you think Giddey can be the lead guard on a good team? If so, he's worth a lot of money.

I kind of do if I'm being honest. I mean, I wouldn't bet my house on it or anything but there's a lot to like about Josh Giddey: He's an elite positional rebounder, he's an elite passer, and he's been productive since he's entered the league and is still incredibly young. Given those things, I think he could develop into a top 3 player on a good team. That's not to say that he's the easiest player to build around, but if I squint hard enough I can see a successful template that includes Giddey. To me, that template is a fast-paced free-flowing offense, defensive and athletic big men, and high-volume shooters. To be clear, I'm not sold on him being the best player on a contender but I don't see why he can't be a top 3 player on a good playoff team. Obviously the NBA has changed quite a bit, but Mark Jackson (who had similar strengths and limitations) was the third-best player on a contender. If you have talent, so much of success is dependent on system, opportunity, and supporting personnel.

As for the money part of it, that's sort of irrelevant. It seems like a foregone conclusion that he's not going to make more than $25m a year on this deal.

As for OKC, they most definitely viewed him as a rotation player only fit for specific niche's. He was at best their 5th best player (SGA, Williams, Dort, Chet clearly ahead of him both in minutes and impact). They had a candid discussion with him after the season was over that they didn't view him as a starter and both sides mutually agreed to seek a trade.

His last year in OKC was a strange year because he was dealing with a big serious off-court issue that was spilling into the game with all the targeted booing and media attention. I like Dort. He's a good player and an important piece as a defender and spacer. That skillset was more needed by OKC than Giddey's since SGA is their best player, but Giddey outperformed Dort IMO.

But again, ultimately, a lot of this (all my posts included) is word salad, because I don't think the opinions on how much to pay Giddey really vary by all that much. A lot of the optimism or pessimism in specific posts is based on the points replied to more so than what is likely a significant gap in view of the his value. In the end, a lot of semantic arguments, but probably 90% of us are within like 5M AAV of each other which is closer than the Bulls and Giddey are

I think you're right here. I've said for a while that I think $25m is a fair number and that I'm okay with it going to $30m based on him reaching certain incentives (All-Star, playoffs, starting a certain amount of games, etc.). I'm guessing you're in the $22m range, yourself?

[dougthonus]

I think you're right here. I've said for a while that I think $25m is a fair number and that I'm okay with it going to $30m based on him reaching certain incentives (All-Star, playoffs, starting a certain amount of games, etc.). I'm guessing you're in the $22m range, yourself?

I've generally been at 25M AAV as the max I'd go.

Probably the most favorable contract from Giddey's perspective that I'd offer is 4/100M (25M AAV) with 4th year being a PO (gives Giddey an earlier out if he really blows up), but I'd be willing to do 3/75, 4/100, 5/125 and on the 4 or 5 year deals make the last year a PO. On the 3 year deal, I wouldn't allow a PO.

[jnrjr79]

Yes, AC is technically a role player, but I think calling him a "role playing defensive oriented bench guard" is misleading. Caruso, from an impact, tangibles, and analytics standpoint is a stud. He's not your typical bench role player here.

He played 20 minutes a game, is a one way guy, and signed for 20M a year. That isn't "technically" a role player. It is the definition of role player. It's also the perfect type of role player you want on your team. He solves a significant problem, he doesn't create a significant alternate problem.

If you think Josh Giddey is more than a rotation player, I'm not going to stop you. I just don't. I don't think he is the #1, #2, or #3 player on a 50 win team. I get why someone might, and maybe in time he will prove me wrong, but to me he's simply a rotation player. Probably on the higher end side of rotation players, but still a rotation guy.

I mean, fine, but for 20 minutes a game, he’s giving you literally the best perimeter defense in the NBA.

[Bulldog23]

I am not suprised by over 75 pages on Giddy. This is more a reflection on a lack of confidence in management.

[sco]

I am not suprised by over 75 pages on Giddy. This is more a reflection on a lack of confidence in management.

I think it has more to do with the fact that there isn't much new this offseason and nothing else left open roster-wise.

[Red8911]

I am not suprised by over 75 pages on Giddy. This is more a reflection on a lack of confidence in management.

If he had signed a month ago there wouldn’t be any pages or anything to really discuss.

[DuckIII]

Do you think Giddey can be the lead guard on a good team? If so, he's worth a lot of money.

I kind of do if I'm being honest.

I feel like some of the Giddey debate is semantics. What is a “lead guard”? Doug seems to believe it means primary ball handler AND primary (or at worst secondary) isolation scorer.

Which is fine except that we’re talking about a guy we are going to pay approximately 33% of the league max. The weirdest thing about the Giddey debate is that numerous posters have essentially taken the position that he needs to play like a franchise player in order to be good enough for us to pay him like a 3rd or 4th starter.

So I think the better way to phrase it is do you think he can be the starting PG and offensive engine on a good team at this salary? And the answer to that is clearly yes. Anyone saying otherwise has a personal, specific issue with Josh Giddey.

[Red8911]

I think you're right here. I've said for a while that I think $25m is a fair number and that I'm okay with it going to $30m based on him reaching certain incentives (All-Star, playoffs, starting a certain amount of games, etc.). I'm guessing you're in the $22m range, yourself?

I've generally been at 25M AAV as the max I'd go.

Probably the most favorable contract from Giddey's perspective that I'd offer is 4/100M (25M AAV) with 4th year being a PO (gives Giddey an earlier out if he really blows up), but I'd be willing to do 3/75, 4/100, 5/125 and on the 4 or 5 year deals make the last year a PO. On the 3 year deal, I wouldn't allow a PO.

I see your walking back your previous comments about Giddey being just another role player.

25 million for him is an over pay if he’s just another average role player…..