Josh Giddey - Conundrum Killer

[cocktailswith_2short]

You'd think Brooklyn would want a bigger name but Giddey has been playing like a franchise player . It's interesting how this conundrum has shifted over the season .

[Donkedave]

The GB thread says Washington has $84M in cap space this offseason.
Pelicans $72M.
Jazz $35M.

Not sure who is saying these figures mate.

Potential of having?
These are 1st Apron room. If players don’t pick up options and they waive non guaranteed players.

Middleton isn’t giving up 34m PO to get 14 from MLE etc.

[WindyCityBorn]

You'd think Brooklyn would want a bigger name but Giddey has been playing like a franchise player . It's interesting how this conundrum has shifted over the season .

Brooklyn has lost all steam as a destination franchise. Giddey would be great for their rebuild. They could definitely make us pay more than we woiukd have otherwise. I don’t see anyway we let him walk. Might as well fire AK immediately if that happens.

[AshyLarrysDiaper]

I don’t see the Bulls making Giddey sign an offer sheet elsewhere. My gut tells me they’ll lock him up shortly after the window opens, for better or worse.

[kodo]

The GB thread says Washington has $84M in cap space this offseason.
Pelicans $72M.
Jazz $35M.

Not sure who is saying these figures mate.

Potential of having?
These are 1st Apron room. If players don’t pick up options and they waive non guaranteed players.

Middleton isn’t giving up 34m PO to get 14 from MLE etc.

These are from Clav.
Yes there will always be variability depending on options, but even if Khris opts in that's still plenty of cap space.

[Andi Obst]

The GB thread says Washington has $84M in cap space this offseason.
Pelicans $72M.
Jazz $35M.

Not sure who is saying these figures mate.

Potential of having?
These are 1st Apron room. If players don’t pick up options and they waive non guaranteed players.

Middleton isn’t giving up 34m PO to get 14 from MLE etc.

These are from Clav.
Yes there will always be variability depending on options, but even if Khris opts in that's still plenty of cap space.

The Wizards won't have that much capspace. Not even close. I don't know where that's coming from.

[Donkedave]

The GB thread says Washington has $84M in cap space this offseason.
Pelicans $72M.
Jazz $35M.

Not sure who is saying these figures mate.

Potential of having?
These are 1st Apron room. If players don’t pick up options and they waive non guaranteed players.

Middleton isn’t giving up 34m PO to get 14 from MLE etc.

These are from Clav.
Yes there will always be variability depending on options, but even if Khris opts in that's still plenty of cap space.

Yes they have some room.

Wizards current forecast is 30m UT(under tax threshold) could get to 45ish
Potentially 1st pick is around 11.5m

Pels 15m UT

Jazz is correct at 35m UT

[dougthonus]

Not sure who is saying these figures mate.

Potential of having?
These are 1st Apron room. If players don’t pick up options and they waive non guaranteed players.

Middleton isn’t giving up 34m PO to get 14 from MLE etc.

These are from Clav.
Yes there will always be variability depending on options, but even if Khris opts in that's still plenty of cap space.

Yes they have some room.

Wizards current forecast is 30m UT(under tax threshold) could get to 45ish
Potentially 1st pick is around 11.5m

Pels 15m UT

Jazz is correct at 35m UT

In the context of signing a free agent, under the tax isn't relevant. It is under the cap. You can't sign FAs with money under the tax.

The cap is expected to be 154.6M. The Wizards are at 141M + salary of their expected draft pick which will probably be 10M+ if they waive Holmes. Which means, likely they will be 3M or so under the cap, which means they will operate over the cap because the MLE is greater than their cap space.

The Jazz are at 154M in guaranteed salary and will have no cap room (not even counting their draft pick).

The only team that projects to have significant room under the cap is Brooklyn.

[League Circles]

Is the max possible (should Brooklyn decide to go crazy) for Giddey 25, 30, or 35% of the cap?

[dougthonus]

Is the max possible (should Brooklyn decide to go crazy) for Giddey 25, 30, or 35% of the cap?

25%

[sco]

Is the max possible (should Brooklyn decide to go crazy) for Giddey 25, 30, or 35% of the cap?

25%

what does that contract look like?

[MissileMike]

Is the max possible (should Brooklyn decide to go crazy) for Giddey 25, 30, or 35% of the cap?

25%

what does that contract look like?

And who else is on the market?

[dougthonus]

Is the max possible (should Brooklyn decide to go crazy) for Giddey 25, 30, or 35% of the cap?

25%

what does that contract look like?

I think roughly this:
38.5
40.425
42.35
44.275
Total: 165.55

We could offer him bigger raises and an extra year, but I think that is the most Brooklyn could offer if they wanted to go crazy.

[League Circles]

25%

what does that contract look like?

I think roughly this:
38.5
40.425
42.35
44.275
Total: 165.55

We could offer him bigger raises and an extra year, but I think that is the most Brooklyn could offer if they wanted to go crazy.

If they wanted to go a little more crazy, they could give him the full year salary in day 1 of each year, and give him a PO on the 4th year.

The biggest problem with that potential contract isn't it in a vacuum. It's that if Coby and/or Matas or somebody we haven't had yet performs slightly better than Giddey, they'll try to demand/command even more. And most of us think Giddey can be a big piece on a winner, but only if the roster has like 3 or 4 guys around his caliber (but with different skill sets). So the question isn't really whether Giddey is worth that, but rather can depth be built on a team that has 3 or 4 guys each making roughly that salary.

[WindyCityBorn]

what does that contract look like?

I think roughly this:
38.5
40.425
42.35
44.275
Total: 165.55

We could offer him bigger raises and an extra year, but I think that is the most Brooklyn could offer if they wanted to go crazy.

If they wanted to go a little more crazy, they could give him the full year salary in day 1 of each year, and give him a PO on the 4th year.

The biggest problem with that potential contract isn't it in a vacuum. It's that if Coby and/or Matas or somebody we haven't had yet performs slightly better than Giddey, they'll try to demand/command even more. And most of us think Giddey can be a big piece on a winner, but only if the roster has like 3 or 4 guys around his caliber (but with different skill sets). So the question isn't really whether Giddey is worth that, but rather can depth be built on a team that has 3 or 4 guys each making roughly that salary.

Maybe, but what Matas might be worth in 3 years is relevant to Giddey’s contract now. I hope Matas is a no-brainer max, but that’s a long way off.

[League Circles]

I think roughly this:
38.5
40.425
42.35
44.275
Total: 165.55

We could offer him bigger raises and an extra year, but I think that is the most Brooklyn could offer if they wanted to go crazy.

If they wanted to go a little more crazy, they could give him the full year salary in day 1 of each year, and give him a PO on the 4th year.

The biggest problem with that potential contract isn't it in a vacuum. It's that if Coby and/or Matas or somebody we haven't had yet performs slightly better than Giddey, they'll try to demand/command even more. And most of us think Giddey can be a big piece on a winner, but only if the roster has like 3 or 4 guys around his caliber (but with different skill sets). So the question isn't really whether Giddey is worth that, but rather can depth be built on a team that has 3 or 4 guys each making roughly that salary.

Maybe, but what Matas might be worth in 3 years is relevant to Giddey’s contract now. I hope Matas is a no-brainer max, but that’s a long way off.

It shouldn't be irrelevant to the Bulls, because if you pay Giddey huge money like that, he'll raise our floor to make our future picks insufficient to draft someone any better than Matas will probably be, and decrease our ability to add anyone by other means. Like many of us have been saying for quite a while, we love Giddey and think we can build a consistently winning team with him running the offense, but it would have to be a pretty specific type of group around him to make it work, so we need to look at how realistic it will be to put that specific type of group around him. It's just not gonna work out to pay him the max on a 4 year deal now and then try to get him to take a paycut on his next deal because he turns out to be like the third best player by then (but still critical) and we can't afford them all. Building a sustainable winner requires us to not evaluate Giddey in a vacuum relative to other individual players around the league, but rather in the impact on our build for many years to come. If we keep him it should be in a way that works out frankly for the next 10 years.

[WindyCityBorn]

If they wanted to go a little more crazy, they could give him the full year salary in day 1 of each year, and give him a PO on the 4th year.

The biggest problem with that potential contract isn't it in a vacuum. It's that if Coby and/or Matas or somebody we haven't had yet performs slightly better than Giddey, they'll try to demand/command even more. And most of us think Giddey can be a big piece on a winner, but only if the roster has like 3 or 4 guys around his caliber (but with different skill sets). So the question isn't really whether Giddey is worth that, but rather can depth be built on a team that has 3 or 4 guys each making roughly that salary.

Maybe, but what Matas might be worth in 3 years is relevant to Giddey’s contract now. I hope Matas is a no-brainer max, but that’s a long way off.

It shouldn't be irrelevant to the Bulls, because if you pay Giddey huge money like that, he'll raise our floor to make our future picks insufficient to draft someone any better than Matas will probably be, and decrease our ability to add anyone by other means. Like many of us have been saying for quite a while, we love Giddey and think we can build a consistently winning team with him running the offense, but it would have to be a pretty specific type of group around him to make it work, so we need to look at how realistic it will be to put that specific type of group around him. It's just not gonna work out to pay him the max on a 4 year deal now and then try to get him to take a paycut on his next deal because he turns out to be like the third best player by then (but still critical) and we can't afford them all. Building a sustainable winner requires us to not evaluate Giddey in a vacuum relative to other individual players around the league, but rather in the impact on our build for many years to come. If we keep him it should be in a way that works out frankly for the next 10 years.

Giddey has played himself into a $25 to $30 million per contract. That is in line with what guys like Suggs and Quickley signed last offseason. Basically the going rate for a young starting level point guard with potential. I think he has more potential than both of them by a large amount.

[dougthonus]

If they wanted to go a little more crazy, they could give him the full year salary in day 1 of each year, and give him a PO on the 4th year.

The biggest problem with that potential contract isn't it in a vacuum. It's that if Coby and/or Matas or somebody we haven't had yet performs slightly better than Giddey, they'll try to demand/command even more. And most of us think Giddey can be a big piece on a winner, but only if the roster has like 3 or 4 guys around his caliber (but with different skill sets). So the question isn't really whether Giddey is worth that, but rather can depth be built on a team that has 3 or 4 guys each making roughly that salary.

I don't think it matters if someone demands more. You can only pay them the max. You negotiate each guy with what they are worth.

In the end, if Giddey is worth the max, it's fine to pay him the max, and if we have another guy worth the max then congrats to us for having two guys worth the max.

I don't think Giddey is probably worth the max, and in a rational world, I don't think we'd pay him that much, but it wouldn't surprise me if AK does.

[League Circles]

Maybe, but what Matas might be worth in 3 years is relevant to Giddey’s contract now. I hope Matas is a no-brainer max, but that’s a long way off.

It shouldn't be irrelevant to the Bulls, because if you pay Giddey huge money like that, he'll raise our floor to make our future picks insufficient to draft someone any better than Matas will probably be, and decrease our ability to add anyone by other means. Like many of us have been saying for quite a while, we love Giddey and think we can build a consistently winning team with him running the offense, but it would have to be a pretty specific type of group around him to make it work, so we need to look at how realistic it will be to put that specific type of group around him. It's just not gonna work out to pay him the max on a 4 year deal now and then try to get him to take a paycut on his next deal because he turns out to be like the third best player by then (but still critical) and we can't afford them all. Building a sustainable winner requires us to not evaluate Giddey in a vacuum relative to other individual players around the league, but rather in the impact on our build for many years to come. If we keep him it should be in a way that works out frankly for the next 10 years.

Giddey has played himself into a $25 to $30 million per contract. That is in line with what guys like Suggs and Quickley signed last offseason. Basically the going rate for a young starting level point guard with potential. I think he has more potential than both of them by a large amount.

I agree. 25-30 is one thing. We were talking about the possibility of Brooklyn offering him 40+ per year.

[dougthonus]

It shouldn't be irrelevant to the Bulls, because if you pay Giddey huge money like that, he'll raise our floor to make our future picks insufficient to draft someone any better than Matas will probably be, and decrease our ability to add anyone by other means. Like many of us have been saying for quite a while, we love Giddey and think we can build a consistently winning team with him running the offense, but it would have to be a pretty specific type of group around him to make it work, so we need to look at how realistic it will be to put that specific type of group around him. It's just not gonna work out to pay him the max on a 4 year deal now and then try to get him to take a paycut on his next deal because he turns out to be like the third best player by then (but still critical) and we can't afford them all. Building a sustainable winner requires us to not evaluate Giddey in a vacuum relative to other individual players around the league, but rather in the impact on our build for many years to come. If we keep him it should be in a way that works out frankly for the next 10 years.

That's just not how negotiations work.

Each player wants as much as they can get and will use whatever comparison they can to get as much as they can get. If comparisons to players on this team get him that much money then he will use them. If comparisons against the league get him more money then he will use those.

In the end, ultimately, it is about what someone will pay him. Whenever Giddey is up for a contract extension after this one, he will try to get as much money as he can regardless of who is on the roster and what they are paid. Based on what he does over 4 years that could be anywhere from "we don't even want him back" to "he's now worth a 35% max" and anywhere in between.

He will be a UFA next negotiation, and he will simply go wherever the money is best. There is a really good chance that after his next contract is up that we won't want him anyway, in fact, that's probably the most likely scenario as the vast majority of players are going to change teams within 5 years.