What exactly is the plan?

[Leslie Forman]

.. but really worried about the defense.

He's already a bad defensive center at 30. Historically, that is a terrible, terrible sign for longevity. I don't see how he's going to do any better than Wendell or Lauri in these drop back schemes Donovan insists on, and he is going to bring back memories of Pau Gasol when trying to play a pick-n-roll tight.

I’m curious to know your criteria of a “bad defensive center?” Just two seasons ago, Vucevic had the 3rd highest defensive wins shares and 5th highest defensive rating of all centers. And throughout his entire career, he cracked the the top 10 in defensive rebound % 6 times (made top 5 in four of his last five seasons).

And career defensive numbers, including recent ones, shows that he’s outplaying other centers such as Miles Turner, Steven Adams, Brook Lopez, KAT, the list goes on..Yeah ok, he seems slow with the eye test and he’s not a top 5 defensive center. But compared to his position, he’s a hell of a lot better defensively than Zach Lavine. Give the guy a chance, Jesus.

You know who was top-20 in defensive win shares in the entire league for all four years he was here? Carlos Boozer.

You know who was 5th and 14th in defensive win shares when he was here? Pau Gasol.

You know who's been in the top-20 in defensive win shares the last three seasons in a row? Nikola Jokic.

You know how valuable I think defensive win shares are? About as much as a seventh nipple.

[Stratmaster]

AK has already said he is on that and he isn’t done. No reason to not believe him now. You said this team needs Patrick Williams to become a a superstar to win 45 wins. I’m sorry but that is a ridiculous evaluation.

I said above that win total, I’ll be more specific, for this team to be considered a title contender, Pat Williams is the key. AK can say what he wants, but he doesn’t have any draft capital and little cap space to work with. The bulls need to get lucky to get better at PG after this deal.

Actually... you got less specific. You hedged your bet.

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[Stratmaster]

This is a weird thread.

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Indeed.

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[Stratmaster]

The "most successful" tank in the last 10 years would be the Sixers. In 2013-15, they won 19, 18 and 10 games. They managed to get 2 All-NBA players out of their tank, and where has it taken them?

They haven't made it out of the 2nd round. And they're completely capped out for the next 2 off-seasons.

We are now supposedly "capped out" with "no way to improve", and a "2nd round team at best"... LMAO, except we're currently "a 2nd round team at best" that can keep our core together AND have max cap space the next 2 summers.

I'll wait for one of them to name the team that bottomed out, tanked for 2 or more seasons, and then used those tank draft picks to win a title. But I won't hold my breath.

Yeah, leading the conference with a team built around a 24 and 26 year old? Pfffffttttt. What garbage.

Nikola Vucevic, now that's how you get titles.

Now name all the teams that tanked forever and still suck. Get ready to be miserable for a long time because AK doesn’t want high lottery picks.

Not to mention it took them over a decade to become the league leading team built around a 24 and 26 year olds. Ain't nobody got time for that.

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[YouMustBeJoakim]

You know how valuable I think defensive win shares are? About as much as a seventh nipple.

Cool bro, only Bill Russell, Duncan, Kareem, Olajuwon, and Wilt rank in the top 5 in DWS

You want people’s perception of Vucevic to be an aging, lumbering albatross of a defender. When he’s more than capable at that end. You Debbie downer

[Stratmaster]

.. but really worried about the defense.

He's already a bad defensive center at 30. Historically, that is a terrible, terrible sign for longevity. I don't see how he's going to do any better than Wendell or Lauri in these drop back schemes Donovan insists on, and he is going to bring back memories of Pau Gasol when trying to play a pick-n-roll tight.

I’m curious to know your criteria of a “bad defensive center?” Just two seasons ago, Vucevic had the 3rd highest defensive wins shares and 5th highest defensive rating of all centers. And throughout his entire career, he cracked the the top 10 in defensive rebound % 6 times (made top 5 in four of his last five seasons).

And career defensive numbers, including recent ones, shows that he’s outplaying other centers such as Miles Turner, Steven Adams, Brook Lopez, KAT, the list goes on..Yeah ok, he seems slow with the eye test and he’s not a top 5 defensive center. But compared to his position, he’s a hell of a lot better defensively than Zach Lavine. Give the guy a chance, Jesus.

And better than WCJ, Gaff, and Kornet

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[Leslie Forman]

You know how valuable I think defensive win shares are? About as much as a seventh nipple.

Cool bro, only Bill Russell, Duncan, Kareem, Olajuwon, and Wilt rank in the top 5 in DWS

You want people’s perception of Vucevic to be an aging, lumbering albatross of a defender. When he’s more than capable at that end. You Debbie downer

Here, let me make you feel better:

[YouMustBeJoakim]

Once again being tangential and replying with loose associations. Get help

[dougthonus]

I don’t see how we have possibly screwed ourselves unless we are not a top 4 seed or better come 2023 or Zach is gone or something like hat. This team now is not our final form.

I'd be surprised if this team is a top 4 seed.

1: Vucevic appears to me to be wildly overrated on this forum after the trade. When brought up prior to the trade, people weren't that excited about him. Now that he's ours, people think he's a stud.

2: Vucevic is a 30 year old center that probably weighs 270+, the odds of him being an impact player in three seasons are almost none, so the odds of us being much better in two years than we are today are pretty low.

3: We gave up the assets that were most likely (even if highly unlikely) to yield superstar talent. Draft choices, even outside the top 10, are still your best way to get lucky.

This isn't our final form, but we have considerably less flexibility to improve going forward. We used a considerable amount of assets to make this leap. My guess is this leap puts us in the 5-8 spot in the East for a couple years, then we tear it down without the benefit of any quality youth in the wings, but as I've said lots of times, I will hope that assessment proves incorrect.

It's neither here nor there really because it isn't true, but if Vuc were three years younger, I'd feel a heck of a lot more optimistic about having time to figure out what the next step is. I'd be very surprised if Vuc doesn't degrade significantly over the next three years. That said, maybe sports medicine is getting better, because we have seen a lot of players playing well into their mid 30s lately, but that feat seems much more difficult for centers. I know he doesn't rely on athleticism offensively, but it always matters a ton defensively and still makes some difference offensively, even for shooters (not to mention that guys weighing as much as Vuc typically are going to have a lot of wear on the knees/back).

[GelbeWand09]

.. but really worried about the defense.

He's already a bad defensive center at 30. Historically, that is a terrible, terrible sign for longevity. I don't see how he's going to do any better than Wendell or Lauri in these drop back schemes Donovan insists on, and he is going to bring back memories of Pau Gasol when trying to play a pick-n-roll tight.

I’m curious to know your criteria of a “bad defensive center?” Just two seasons ago, Vucevic had the 3rd highest defensive wins shares and 5th highest defensive rating of all centers. And throughout his entire career, he cracked the the top 10 in defensive rebound % 6 times (made top 5 in four of his last five seasons).

And career defensive numbers, including recent ones, shows that he’s outplaying other centers such as Miles Turner, Steven Adams, Brook Lopez, KAT, the list goes on..Yeah ok, he seems slow with the eye test and he’s not a top 5 defensive center. But compared to his position, he’s a hell of a lot better defensively than Zach Lavine. Give the guy a chance, Jesus.

Magic fan. I hope Vuc does well for ya. This stat is heavily connected with Isaac. He was THE perfect def. partner for Vuc & covered all his weaknesses. When heathy a top 3-5 defender. Our defense in that post Dwight era was only 1 and half years elite (or even good). The time Isaac was healthy. With Isaac injured, Vuc's defensive stats dropped like the teams stats.
Y'all dont have a Isaac like player to cover the rim protection & mobility (help & recover/switching...) issues with Vuc. You probably have to chose one. I would go def. with mobility.

[nomorezorro]

I'd be surprised if this team is a top 4 seed.

the 4 seed in the east right now is the 23-21 charlotte hornets. if they fall out of fourth because of the lamelo injury, it'll be the knicks.

[WindyCityBorn]

I don’t see how we have possibly screwed ourselves unless we are not a top 4 seed or better come 2023 or Zach is gone or something like hat. This team now is not our final form.

I'd be surprised if this team is a top 4 seed.

1: Vucevic appears to me to be wildly overrated on this forum after the trade. When brought up prior to the trade, people weren't that excited about him. Now that he's ours, people think he's a stud.

2: Vucevic is a 30 year old center that probably weighs 270+, the odds of him being an impact player in three seasons are almost none, so the odds of us being much better in two years than we are today are pretty low.

3: We gave up the assets that were most likely (even if highly unlikely) to yield superstar talent. Draft choices, even outside the top 10, are still your best way to get lucky.

This isn't our final form, but we have considerably less flexibility to improve going forward. We used a considerable amount of assets to make this leap. My guess is this leap puts us in the 5-8 spot in the East for a couple years, then we tear it down without the benefit of any quality youth in the wings, but as I've said lots of times, I will hope that assessment proves incorrect.

It's neither here nor there really because it isn't true, but if Vuc were three years younger, I'd feel a heck of a lot more optimistic about having time to figure out what the next step is. I'd be very surprised if Vuc doesn't degrade significantly over the next three years. That said, maybe sports medicine is getting better, because we have seen a lot of players playing well into their mid 30s lately, but that feat seems much more difficult for centers. I know he doesn't rely on athleticism offensively, but it always matters a ton defensively and still makes some difference offensively, even for shooters (not to mention that guys weighing as much as Vuc typically are going to have a lot of wear on the knees/back).

Yeah I completely disagree with this. You have no idea how Patrick Williams will turn out and you seem to be assuming we won’t be able to acquire a high level starting PG. I don’t think Vuc will significantly decline either and if he does well that more cap space. He will be really good for the duration of his current deal barring injury. You also ignore the possibility of Zach walking or being traded low value if we continued to suck which was likely. Our best player an elite scoring all-star just entering his prime has no interest in waiting for more young guys to POSSIBLY develop.

[dougthonus]

Are you making the assumption the team we see now is the team we have for the next 5 seasons?

I don't think you can ever really plan ahead more than about three seasons. If you want to talk five seasons, in five seasons, Vuc is worthless and the picks we traded him are absolutely worth more. In five seasons, we definitely are better off for not having made this trade if you ignore what happens in the seasons in between which might be much better.

It won't be. There will be a new point guard on the scene. The question is who. I don't even think it needs to be an all-star level PG because that is a crowded group.

It isn't just that the Bulls got a2nd all star. It is how he fits.

The Bulls likely have the number one PnR duo in the league now. And the NBA is absolutely a pick and roll league. Thad ain't shabby at it either.

We will see how it plays out on the court, the Bulls have two fringiest of fringe all-stars. People throw out the term all-star like we're rolling out Harden and KD, when we're rolling out a guy who has made it twice in 10 years and a guy who made it once in 7 and both were at the end of the list.

Ignore the term all-star, neither of these guys is a two way player and neither of these guys are top 15 players. Zach might be closing in on that top 15. The guy we just got is likely going to degrade quickly as well.

A high quality starting point guard would get this team into the late rounds. It is more important that he be a defensive force and solid ball handler/distributor because the Bulls absolutely should be golden offensively at this point. I don't know how you stop that PnR/PnP game especially since the Bulls have other quality spotters at the 3 point line.

I hope I'm wrong, but I think we're much further away from the later rounds than that, unless by "high quality starting PG" you mean all-star caliber PG and not someone like Lonzo who is available this summer and a reasonable target. Also, not sure what you mean by late rounds, by that I would assume you mean ECF or better given that there are four rounds total.

I could see this team making the 2nd round if things go well, but that's about the top of the upside I see.

[nomorezorro]

are we really going to act like we're above aiming for the eastern conference semifinals lol

we've been trash for four seasons, we haven't won a playoff series since 2015. it would be cool if we don't suck for a change

[nomorezorro]

i also think the "is vucevic gonna fall off a cliff" discussion hinges on whether his high-volume elite 3pt shooting this season is for real. 2014-15 pau gasol wasn't taking 6.5 threes a game and making 40.6% of them. if vucevic can keep something like that up, that's a dimension of his game that should age well and give defenses fits

[dougthonus]

Yeah I completely disagree with this. You have no idea how Patrick Williams will turn out and you seem to be assuming we won’t be able to acquire a high level starting PG. I don’t think Vuc will significantly decline either and if he does well that more cap space. He will be really good for the duration of his current deal barring injury. You also ignore the possibility of Zach walking or being traded low value if we continued to suck which was likely. Our best player an elite scoring all-star just entering his prime has no interest in waiting for more young guys to POSSIBLY develop.

In a sea of possible outcomes, you basically have said don't worry, the Bulls will roll a hundred sided dice three times and get three rolls over 80. Yeah, it could happen, it wouldn't be absurd if it happens, but it's pretty unlikely.

It's a lot more likely that Pat Williams isn't a special player than he is. It's unlikely we'll get a "high level" starting PG. I'm not sure exactly what you mean by that, but I doubt we'll land a top 10 PG guard, and hard for me to view a non top 10 one as high level, so maybe this is more likely if I'm just misreading what you're suggesting.

I agree that Vuc can be good for the duration of his deal, but I think every year of it will be worse than this year going forward.

I agree that the situation with Zach absolutely creates pressure on the FO and that if they didn't find a way to be better that he might have walked. That doesn't change the outcome of what we did.

How many playoff series wins do the Bulls have when Vuc contract ends (next three playoffs counting this one)? I'd say something like

70% = 0
20% = 1
10% > 1

After Vuc's contract is over, I think it is guaranteed that we would have been better off in those years 3+ out to have not done this deal rather than having done this deal. So you are trading your future 3+ year benefit for the excitement of these next three years. That excitement to me of watching my team get bounced in the playoffs three times is not of particularly high value. It is certainly higher value than we had before (where not even making the playoffs seemed reasonably likely).

[Stratmaster]

I don’t see how we have possibly screwed ourselves unless we are not a top 4 seed or better come 2023 or Zach is gone or something like hat. This team now is not our final form.

I'd be surprised if this team is a top 4 seed.

1: Vucevic appears to me to be wildly overrated on this forum after the trade. When brought up prior to the trade, people weren't that excited about him. Now that he's ours, people think he's a stud.

2: Vucevic is a 30 year old center that probably weighs 270+, the odds of him being an impact player in three seasons are almost none, so the odds of us being much better in two years than we are today are pretty low.

3: We gave up the assets that were most likely (even if highly unlikely) to yield superstar talent. Draft choices, even outside the top 10, are still your best way to get lucky.

This isn't our final form, but we have considerably less flexibility to improve going forward. We used a considerable amount of assets to make this leap. My guess is this leap puts us in the 5-8 spot in the East for a couple years, then we tear it down without the benefit of any quality youth in the wings, but as I've said lots of times, I will hope that assessment proves incorrect.

It's neither here nor there really because it isn't true, but if Vuc were three years younger, I'd feel a heck of a lot more optimistic about having time to figure out what the next step is. I'd be very surprised if Vuc doesn't degrade significantly over the next three years. That said, maybe sports medicine is getting better, because we have seen a lot of players playing well into their mid 30s lately, but that feat seems much more difficult for centers. I know he doesn't rely on athleticism offensively, but it always matters a ton defensively and still makes some difference offensively, even for shooters (not to mention that guys weighing as much as Vuc typically are going to have a lot of wear on the knees/back).

We may be overestimating Vuc. I think you may be overestimating the competition in the East. I see the Bulls floor next season as being the same as their ceiling this season... a 6 seed. I could see them being a 4 seed next season wth the addition of a defensive quality ball handler at the point. Not an all-star. Just someone who can run the point better than Coby.

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[Stratmaster]

Are you making the assumption the team we see now is the team we have for the next 5 seasons?

I don't think you can ever really plan ahead more than about three seasons. If you want to talk five seasons, in five seasons, Vuc is worthless and the picks we traded him are absolutely worth more. In five seasons, we definitely are better off for not having made this trade if you ignore what happens in the seasons in between which might be much better.

It won't be. There will be a new point guard on the scene. The question is who. I don't even think it needs to be an all-star level PG because that is a crowded group.

It isn't just that the Bulls got a2nd all star. It is how he fits.

The Bulls likely have the number one PnR duo in the league now. And the NBA is absolutely a pick and roll league. Thad ain't shabby at it either.

We will see how it plays out on the court, the Bulls have two fringiest of fringe all-stars. People throw out the term all-star like we're rolling out Harden and KD, when we're rolling out a guy who has made it twice in 10 years and a guy who made it once in 7 and both were at the end of the list.

Ignore the term all-star, neither of these guys is a two way player and neither of these guys are top 15 players. Zach might be closing in on that top 15. The guy we just got is likely going to degrade quickly as well.

A high quality starting point guard would get this team into the late rounds. It is more important that he be a defensive force and solid ball handler/distributor because the Bulls absolutely should be golden offensively at this point. I don't know how you stop that PnR/PnP game especially since the Bulls have other quality spotters at the 3 point line.

I hope I'm wrong, but I think we're much further away from the later rounds than that, unless by "high quality starting PG" you mean all-star caliber PG and not someone like Lonzo who is available this summer and a reasonable target. Also, not sure what you mean by late rounds, by that I would assume you mean ECF or better given that there are four rounds total.

I could see this team making the 2nd round if things go well, but that's about the top of the upside I see.

Wait. You said ignore the all star term abd then you said the Bulls need an all star PG.

All stars are almost always scorers. I don't think that is even what the Bulls need at PG.

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[The Senator]

are we really going to act like we're above aiming for the eastern conference semifinals lol

we've been trash for four seasons, we haven't won a playoff series since 2015. it would be cool if we don't suck for a change

I concur. This topic seems like the result of years of GarPax's halfhearted managerial efforts, always prioritizing mid lottery draft picks and the almighty roster flexibility over taking a hard route. I'm not saying that this is plan of action is guaranteed by any means to work out, but I'd rather see the FO swing for the fences and go for something rather than wait once again on a #7 pick to fizzle out again while we suffer through stultifyingly mediocre teams year after year, waiting for the next NBA trend to fully develop before management decides to focus on it. If the Bulls go down, I want to watch them go down swinging, instead of quietly failing to make the playoffs once again.

Vucevic might not be the Bulls's savior, but he'll be a fun player to watch, he fits Donovan's approach extremely well, should play off Zach wonderfully and is a massive upgrade over what we had at the five spot for years. I don't buy the conventional wisdom going around that the center position is essentially meaningless in the modern game. A quality big can still impact the game, even in the Age of the Three. I may be a natural pessimist for the most part, and I can certainly see where this can go wrong, but for now, this topic just seems more like a conditioned reaction based off past performance than anything else.

[WindyCityBorn]

Yeah I completely disagree with this. You have no idea how Patrick Williams will turn out and you seem to be assuming we won’t be able to acquire a high level starting PG. I don’t think Vuc will significantly decline either and if he does well that more cap space. He will be really good for the duration of his current deal barring injury. You also ignore the possibility of Zach walking or being traded low value if we continued to suck which was likely. Our best player an elite scoring all-star just entering his prime has no interest in waiting for more young guys to POSSIBLY develop.

In a sea of possible outcomes, you basically have said don't worry, the Bulls will roll a hundred sided dice three times and get three rolls over 80. Yeah, it could happen, it wouldn't be absurd if it happens, but it's pretty unlikely.

It's a lot more likely that Pat Williams isn't a special player than he is. It's unlikely we'll get a "high level" starting PG. I'm not sure exactly what you mean by that, but I doubt we'll land a top 10 PG guard, and hard for me to view a non top 10 one as high level, so maybe this is more likely if I'm just misreading what you're suggesting.

I agree that Vuc can be good for the duration of his deal, but I think every year of it will be worse than this year going forward.

I agree that the situation with Zach absolutely creates pressure on the FO and that if they didn't find a way to be better that he might have walked. That doesn't change the outcome of what we did.

How many playoff series wins do the Bulls have when Vuc contract ends (next three playoffs counting this one)? I'd say something like

70% = 0
20% = 1
10% > 1

After Vuc's contract is over, I think it is guaranteed that we would have been better off in those years 3+ out to have not done this deal rather than having done this deal. So you are trading your future 3+ year benefit for the excitement of these next three years. That excitement to me of watching my team get bounced in the playoffs three times is not of particularly high value. It is certainly higher value than we had before (where not even making the playoffs seemed reasonably likely).

You really think lowly of Vuc. That is crux of the disagreement. I think Lonzo Ball would be a high level PG.