Josh Giddey - Conundrum Killer

[sco]

The question with Giddey should simply be whether he can run a contender level nba offense AND be paid like a 4th or 5th best starter, because IMO he simply doesn't have the overall talent/ability of a top 3 player on a contender.

If he can even start on a contender, it would be as the worst defender in the unit. Offensively, he could maybe be the third best player on a contender. Maybe.

I don't think we're likely to get high end top 2 starters, which means our 3rd through 5th best starters need to be above average to have a chance. I don't see a path forward to Giddey being better than the 5th best defender or 3rd best offensive starter on a title team, which would make him, at best, the 5th best starter on a contender, and given the margin of error involved, I think he'd only be a plus as a 5th starter if he was making bench money. So that's my contract limit for him. Paying him legit starter money really holds us at projected mediocrity.

Do you think if the season ended today that a team out there with a PG need is paying him $25M per? I don't. I think high teens is likely doable at the end of the day if the Bulls play FA right with him.

[League Circles]

The question with Giddey should simply be whether he can run a contender level nba offense AND be paid like a 4th or 5th best starter, because IMO he simply doesn't have the overall talent/ability of a top 3 player on a contender.

If he can even start on a contender, it would be as the worst defender in the unit. Offensively, he could maybe be the third best player on a contender. Maybe.

I don't think we're likely to get high end top 2 starters, which means our 3rd through 5th best starters need to be above average to have a chance. I don't see a path forward to Giddey being better than the 5th best defender or 3rd best offensive starter on a title team, which would make him, at best, the 5th best starter on a contender, and given the margin of error involved, I think he'd only be a plus as a 5th starter if he was making bench money. So that's my contract limit for him. Paying him legit starter money really holds us at projected mediocrity.

Do you think if the season ended today that a team out there with a PG need is paying him $25M per? I don't. I think high teens is likely doable at the end of the day if the Bulls play FA right with him.

I don't know the league's rosters well enough to say, but I'd be hesitant to pay him high teens regardless.

[sco]

The question with Giddey should simply be whether he can run a contender level nba offense AND be paid like a 4th or 5th best starter, because IMO he simply doesn't have the overall talent/ability of a top 3 player on a contender.

If he can even start on a contender, it would be as the worst defender in the unit. Offensively, he could maybe be the third best player on a contender. Maybe.

I don't think we're likely to get high end top 2 starters, which means our 3rd through 5th best starters need to be above average to have a chance. I don't see a path forward to Giddey being better than the 5th best defender or 3rd best offensive starter on a title team, which would make him, at best, the 5th best starter on a contender, and given the margin of error involved, I think he'd only be a plus as a 5th starter if he was making bench money. So that's my contract limit for him. Paying him legit starter money really holds us at projected mediocrity.

Do you think if the season ended today that a team out there with a PG need is paying him $25M per? I don't. I think high teens is likely doable at the end of the day if the Bulls play FA right with him.

I don't know the league's rosters well enough to say, but I'd be hesitant to pay him high teens regardless.

IMO, MLE is his floor (which IMO is 5th starter money) and I think that number goes up to $15M next season.

[League Circles]

Do you think if the season ended today that a team out there with a PG need is paying him $25M per? I don't. I think high teens is likely doable at the end of the day if the Bulls play FA right with him.

I don't know the league's rosters well enough to say, but I'd be hesitant to pay him high teens regardless.

IMO, MLE is his floor (which IMO is 5th starter money) and I think that number goes up to $15M next season.

IMO, he'd be a 5th starter on a contender.

[kodo]

Do you think if the season ended today that a team out there with a PG need is paying him $25M per? I don't. I think high teens is likely doable at the end of the day if the Bulls play FA right with him.

I think $25M is very doable. Assuming another team makes Giddey a starter, a 32mpg Giddey is
15 ppg 8 apg (7.5 rpg)

Last few years non-star-but-starter PG contracts:
Murray (17 ppg 6 apg): $52M
FVV (16 ppg 6 apg): $43M
Quickley (15 ppg 4 apg): $32M
Suggs (15 ppg 4 apg): $35M
Simons (16 ppg 4 apg): $26M
Rozier (12 ppg 3 apg): $24M
Brogdon (13 ppg 2 apg): $22M
Smart (9 ppg 4 apg): $20M

A lot of the comps aren't better 3P shooters either, Brogdon shoots 29%, Simons 33%, Suggs 31%, etc..
Giddey is at 34% 3P%, which is consistent with a full year from OKC and assumes no improvement.
And Giddey crushes them all in rebounds, but I think that's probably the least important factor.

Now I've seen every one of these at times called a bad contract, but in a free market if every single comparable is "overpriced" it's not an exception, it's the going rate.

High teens would be better for us, but that would also mean Giddey gets worse all year. Assuming he continues playing at his current/OKC level, he's > $20M. But he's a RFA so AK has all the leverage if he actually uses it. He could scare away any offer sheets if he actually hardballs.

[jordanwilliams6]

The biggest issue is that he just doesn’t have complementary skills. You look at someone like Lonzo and you can slot him into virtually any lineup and he will fit based on his shooting and versatility on defense.

Giddey is the opposite. To build a good team, the team needs to be built around his weaknesses and he’s simply not good enough to warrant that.

[League Circles]

Do you think if the season ended today that a team out there with a PG need is paying him $25M per? I don't. I think high teens is likely doable at the end of the day if the Bulls play FA right with him.

I think $25M is very doable. Assuming another team makes Giddey a starter, a 32mpg Giddey is
15 ppg 8 apg (7.5 rpg)

Last few years non-star-but-starter PG contracts:
Murray (17 ppg 6 apg): $52M
FVV (16 ppg 6 apg): $43M
Quickley (15 ppg 4 apg): $32M
Suggs (15 ppg 4 apg): $35M
Simons (16 ppg 4 apg): $26M
Rozier (12 ppg 3 apg): $24M
Brogdon (13 ppg 2 apg): $22M
Smart (9 ppg 4 apg): $20M

A lot of the comps aren't better 3P shooters either, Brogdon shoots 29%, Simons 33%, Suggs 31%, etc..
Giddey is at 34% 3P%, which is consistent with a full year from OKC and assumes no improvement.
And Giddey crushes them all in rebounds, but I think that's probably the least important factor.

Now I've seen every one of these at times called a bad contract, but in a free market if every single comparable is "overpriced" it's not an exception, it's the going rate.

High teens would be better for us, but that would also mean Giddey gets worse all year. Assuming he continues playing at his current/OKC level, he's > $20M. But he's a RFA so AK has all the leverage if he actually uses it. He could scare away any offer sheets if he actually hardballs.

IMO those raw counting stats are meaningless. They should at least be per 100 possessions, but even then half of the game is defense. Then on top of those two huge caveats, we need to be paying guys based on what they'd need to making on a contender. Most of the guys in the league prevent their teams from being contenders because they make too much money. My theory on how to deal with that isn't magic negotiation tactics where guys agree to sub market value, but instead to play musical chairs in such a way that you don't have to make the decision on what to pay guys that you wouldn't want to keep at market value. It's tricky cause you do need to get some value deals, you just need to get them more creatively.

[DrModesty]

He is still young enough that whatever contract he gets will have some level of potential baked in to it. So if he plays like a $15m player, then he probably gets 20-25. The way he is playing right now, I'd expect him to get somewhere between 90-115m for 4 years. What do teams like Utah or Washington have to lose signing Giddey for 4/110? Frankly, what do the Bulls have to lose doing a contract like that? If they are legit moving in to a rebuild, the contract would be over or in its last year before it even matters, and that is only a negative assuming he doesn't develop.

[cocktailswith_2short]

He is still young enough that whatever contract he gets will have some level of potential baked in to it. So if he plays like a $15m player, then he probably gets 20-25. The way he is playing right now, I'd expect him to get somewhere between 90-115m for 4 years. What do teams like Utah or Washington have to lose signing Giddey for 4/110? Frankly, what do the Bulls have to lose doing a contract like that? If they are legit moving in to a rebuild, the contract would be over or in its last year before it even matters, and that is only a negative assuming he doesn't develop.

This sums up why he will be resigned pretty good nice break it down so to the plebs can understand it take .

[pipfan]

He is still young enough that whatever contract he gets will have some level of potential baked in to it. So if he plays like a $15m player, then he probably gets 20-25. The way he is playing right now, I'd expect him to get somewhere between 90-115m for 4 years. What do teams like Utah or Washington have to lose signing Giddey for 4/110? Frankly, what do the Bulls have to lose doing a contract like that? If they are legit moving in to a rebuild, the contract would be over or in its last year before it even matters, and that is only a negative assuming he doesn't develop.

This sums up why he will be resigned pretty good nice break it down so to the plebs can understand it take .

I have to disagree-overpaying him will be a mistake. He's just not good enough to be a starter-nice bench piece, to run a 2nd unit, but he will always be heavily targeted on D.

If someone offers him a huge deal, let him walk

[Dan Z]

He is still young enough that whatever contract he gets will have some level of potential baked in to it. So if he plays like a $15m player, then he probably gets 20-25. The way he is playing right now, I'd expect him to get somewhere between 90-115m for 4 years. What do teams like Utah or Washington have to lose signing Giddey for 4/110? Frankly, what do the Bulls have to lose doing a contract like that? If they are legit moving in to a rebuild, the contract would be over or in its last year before it even matters, and that is only a negative assuming he doesn't develop.

This sums up why he will be resigned pretty good nice break it down so to the plebs can understand it take .

I have to disagree-overpaying him will be a mistake. He's just not good enough to be a starter-nice bench piece, to run a 2nd unit, but he will always be heavily targeted on D.

If someone offers him a huge deal, let him walk

I agree, but I wouldn't be surprised if AK signed him to the contract that cocktailswith_2short is saying above. AK doesn't seem like a GM who admits mistakes and then pivots in a new direction right away.

[sco]

This sums up why he will be resigned pretty good nice break it down so to the plebs can understand it take .

I have to disagree-overpaying him will be a mistake. He's just not good enough to be a starter-nice bench piece, to run a 2nd unit, but he will always be heavily targeted on D.

If someone offers him a huge deal, let him walk

I agree, but I wouldn't be surprised if AK signed him to the contract that cocktailswith_2short is saying above. AK doesn't seem like a GM who admits mistakes and then pivots in a new direction right away.

Yeah. I find some solace in the fact that he's gotten better at keeping young guys on good deals. I do believe that he has upside and a deal around the MLE would be a fair deal, based on his play of late. That said, there's a lot more to the season, and he might show us more as he gets more familiar with our system/team coupled with a potential bigger role without Zach/Vuc if traded.

[Chi town]

I have to disagree-overpaying him will be a mistake. He's just not good enough to be a starter-nice bench piece, to run a 2nd unit, but he will always be heavily targeted on D.

If someone offers him a huge deal, let him walk

I agree, but I wouldn't be surprised if AK signed him to the contract that cocktailswith_2short is saying above. AK doesn't seem like a GM who admits mistakes and then pivots in a new direction right away.

Yeah. I find some solace in the fact that he's gotten better at keeping young guys on good deals. I do believe that he has upside and a deal around the MLE would be a fair deal, based on his play of late. That said, there's a lot more to the season, and he might show us more as he gets more familiar with our system/team coupled with a potential bigger role without Zach/Vuc if traded.

That’s where I’m at too.

Defensively he is competing lately and is looking like a bad defender but not a Trae young league worst bad defender.

He has to fix his shot. I’ve never seen a guy miss so many 3s and FTs short. Needs a Lonzo like change to be a keeper. Maybe he will trust Patton and get that coached up.

[Stratmaster]

The question with Giddey should simply be whether he can run a contender level nba offense AND be paid like a 4th or 5th best starter, because IMO he simply doesn't have the overall talent/ability of a top 3 player on a contender.

If he can even start on a contender, it would be as the worst defender in the unit. Offensively, he could maybe be the third best player on a contender. Maybe.

I don't think we're likely to get high end top 2 starters, which means our 3rd through 5th best starters need to be above average to have a chance. I don't see a path forward to Giddey being better than the 5th best defender or 3rd best offensive starter on a title team, which would make him, at best, the 5th best starter on a contender, and given the margin of error involved, I think he'd only be a plus as a 5th starter if he was making bench money. So that's my contract limit for him. Paying him legit starter money really holds us at projected mediocrity.

Do you think if the season ended today that a team out there with a PG need is paying him $25M per? I don't. I think high teens is likely doable at the end of the day if the Bulls play FA right with him.

I don't know the league's rosters well enough to say, but I'd be hesitant to pay him high teens regardless.

Patrick freaking Williams just got a full contact in the high teens.

[Infinity2152]

I agree, but I wouldn't be surprised if AK signed him to the contract that cocktailswith_2short is saying above. AK doesn't seem like a GM who admits mistakes and then pivots in a new direction right away.

Yeah. I find some solace in the fact that he's gotten better at keeping young guys on good deals. I do believe that he has upside and a deal around the MLE would be a fair deal, based on his play of late. That said, there's a lot more to the season, and he might show us more as he gets more familiar with our system/team coupled with a potential bigger role without Zach/Vuc if traded.

That’s where I’m at too.

Defensively he is competing lately and is looking like a bad defender but not a Trae young league worst bad defender.

He has to fix his shot. I’ve never seen a guy miss so many 3s and FTs short. Needs a Lonzo like change to be a keeper. Maybe he will trust Patton and get that coached up.

This is an example of how coming into the league early hurts some players. You make it to the league after your first year of college, you probably have a ton of bad habits and skills you need to learn, but you're already in the league. You're not changing your jump shot first, second year in the league. Skills like where to position your body in front a defender driving from the baseline, so many fundamentals you're going to learn being coached in college, you're trying to figure it out in a few minutes of live action. Only time you're probably really working on skills is the off season, and who's training you? Not Coach K or his staff. I think some young players are learning concepts in year 5 that they should have been working on 3 years ago in college. Like I seriously doubt much of the Bulls practice is spent on defensive fundamentals, even though we have a pretty young team. And very few vets to take players under their wing, teach them some things.

Would be great if the Bulls could find 5-8 retired vets, they don't need to have been great players, but students of the games, and just have them mentor these guys according to their needs. Some retirees would probably love the opportunity, wouldn't charge much, and there's a pro boosting their development. You know, show up at some of their workouts, help them with summer workouts, identifying NBA weakness, giving them insider tps and knowledge. Imagine if a player like Pat Bev retired, and came on to mentor our players on defense individually. I know they do it to some extent, but some of these young players really need more individual skill work.

[League Circles]

Do you think if the season ended today that a team out there with a PG need is paying him $25M per? I don't. I think high teens is likely doable at the end of the day if the Bulls play FA right with him.

I don't know the league's rosters well enough to say, but I'd be hesitant to pay him high teens regardless.

Patrick freaking Williams just got a full contact in the high teens.

How's that working out for us?

Even I as one of the biggest Patrick fans definitely thought we should have only offered him a 1+1 team option deal for like 13 mil / year. I'd be OK with that for Giddey also, but Giddey is such a less versatile player in terms of who you could play him with (and against). Just cause of poor defense and catch and shoot 3 point shooting. I think Patrick still has higher upside. Hard to see how Giddey can improve a lot with his physical deficiencies.

If we're gonna actually be a good team we need to be really, really careful to not keep paying mediocre guys long term commitments for not-insignificant salary.

[Stratmaster]

I don't know the league's rosters well enough to say, but I'd be hesitant to pay him high teens regardless.

Patrick freaking Williams just got a full contact in the high teens.

How's that working out for us?

Even I as one of the biggest Patrick fans definitely thought we should have only offered him a 1+1 team option deal for like 13 mil / year. I'd be OK with that for Giddey also, but Giddey is such a less versatile player in terms of who you could play him with (and against). Just cause of poor defense and catch and shoot 3 point shooting. I think Patrick still has higher upside. Hard to see how Giddey can improve a lot with his physical deficiencies.

If we're gonna actually be a good team we need to be really, really careful to not keep paying mediocre guys long term commitments for not-insignificant salary.

I hear you. Bit you aren't getting Giddy for less than 15 mil unless he just craps the bed the rest of the season.

Right now, for next season and assuming Vuc and Zach are gone, Patrick will be the highest paid player under contract. Coby the 2nd highest. Neither of those guys are starter quality. Giddy has more value than either of them.

(Obviously dependent on who they get back for those players. )

[League Circles]

Patrick freaking Williams just got a full contact in the high teens.

How's that working out for us?

Even I as one of the biggest Patrick fans definitely thought we should have only offered him a 1+1 team option deal for like 13 mil / year. I'd be OK with that for Giddey also, but Giddey is such a less versatile player in terms of who you could play him with (and against). Just cause of poor defense and catch and shoot 3 point shooting. I think Patrick still has higher upside. Hard to see how Giddey can improve a lot with his physical deficiencies.

If we're gonna actually be a good team we need to be really, really careful to not keep paying mediocre guys long term commitments for not-insignificant salary.

I hear you. Bit you aren't getting Giddy for less than 15 mil unless he just craps the bed the rest of the season.

Right now, for next season and assuming Vuc and Zach are gone, Patrick will be the highest paid player under contract. Coby the 2nd highest. Neither of those guys are starter quality. Giddy has more value than either of them.

(Obviously dependent on who they get back for those players. )

Value is in the eye of the beholder. I'm not interested in keeping Giddey for more than like 10 million a year. If Coby would re-sign for under 20 mil a year I might be OK with it. Otherwise we should explore trading him (well, we should be exploring that with every player on our team already). I'd be quite surprised if Giddey has more value around the league than Coby.

Only way I'm really interested in keeping Giddey at all is for bench money.

[Stratmaster]

How's that working out for us?

Even I as one of the biggest Patrick fans definitely thought we should have only offered him a 1+1 team option deal for like 13 mil / year. I'd be OK with that for Giddey also, but Giddey is such a less versatile player in terms of who you could play him with (and against). Just cause of poor defense and catch and shoot 3 point shooting. I think Patrick still has higher upside. Hard to see how Giddey can improve a lot with his physical deficiencies.

If we're gonna actually be a good team we need to be really, really careful to not keep paying mediocre guys long term commitments for not-insignificant salary.

I hear you. Bit you aren't getting Giddy for less than 15 mil unless he just craps the bed the rest of the season.

Right now, for next season and assuming Vuc and Zach are gone, Patrick will be the highest paid player under contract. Coby the 2nd highest. Neither of those guys are starter quality. Giddy has more value than either of them.

(Obviously dependent on who they get back for those players. )

Value is in the eye of the beholder. I'm not interested in keeping Giddey for more than like 10 million a year. If Coby would re-sign for under 20 mil a year I might be OK with it. Otherwise we should explore trading him (well, we should be exploring that with every player on our team already). I'd be quite surprised if Giddey has more value around the league than Coby.

Only way I'm really interested in keeping Giddey at all is for bench money.

If you think Coby is worth up to 19mil, then Giddey is worth 25. Coby's play this season is barely worth a rotation spot.

[League Circles]

I hear you. Bit you aren't getting Giddy for less than 15 mil unless he just craps the bed the rest of the season.

Right now, for next season and assuming Vuc and Zach are gone, Patrick will be the highest paid player under contract. Coby the 2nd highest. Neither of those guys are starter quality. Giddy has more value than either of them.

(Obviously dependent on who they get back for those players. )

Value is in the eye of the beholder. I'm not interested in keeping Giddey for more than like 10 million a year. If Coby would re-sign for under 20 mil a year I might be OK with it. Otherwise we should explore trading him (well, we should be exploring that with every player on our team already). I'd be quite surprised if Giddey has more value around the league than Coby.

Only way I'm really interested in keeping Giddey at all is for bench money.

If you think Coby is worth up to 19mil, then Giddey is worth 25. Coby's play this season is barely worth a rotation spot.

I really disagree, and would guess most would agree with me. Barely worth a rotation spot??? He's the third scoring option on the 10th best offense in the league, and while I'm guessing you may disagree, he's definitely a better defender than Giddey, while also being a capable rebounder and playmaker.

With a guy like Coby, he has multiple roles he could potentially play on a good team. He could be a 3rd or 4th scoring option at either guard spot, or a 6th man first bench scoring option at either guard spot. Giddey can't play off ball worth a damn because defenders wisely cheat off him heavily and then attack him effectively when he's on defense. So he has to control the ball, which he's pretty good at, but then is heavily exposed on defense.