2019 Draft Thread Volume #6 - Post Lottery

[DuckIII]

White def has a ceiling just as impressive as most of of the guys after 3.

Definitely? I'm going to have to disagree. If I were ranking ceilings, as in making a list of draftees ranked purely by what they could be if they achieve everything they appear to be capable of, White would be pretty far down my first round rankings and I suspect I'm not alone on that.

Just purely spewing a ranking off the top of my head in about 30 seconds:

Zion
Morant
Barrett
Garland
Seoku
Reddish
Little
Goga
Hunter
Hayes
Langford
Clarke
Rui
Kevin Porter, Jr.

Then we start to get into where I have White's "ceiling" ranked.

[DuckIII]

20. Boston - Bol

Heh. Not surprised at all that he's sinking like a stone (and therefore, incidentally, not a witch). Mind posting the blurb about Boston taking him?

[taj2133]

Read on Twitter

[cjbulls]

20. Boston - Bol

Heh. Not surprised at all that he's sinking like a stone. Mind posting the blurd about Boston taking him?

Sure, nothing too interesting in their comments:

"General manager Danny Ainge has never been afraid to take a gamble on a risky prospect that other NBA teams decided to pass on due to injuries, character concerns or other reasons. Bol's broken foot, skinny frame and the questions about his approach to the game have caused his stock to slip, but there is little doubt that his talent looked worthy of a top-10 pick before he got injured in December.

If he pans out, he could bring much-needed 3-point shooting and rim protection to the roster."

[Butler4thewin]

Hows whites defense?

[DuckIII]

20. Boston - Bol

Heh. Not surprised at all that he's sinking like a stone. Mind posting the blurd about Boston taking him?

Sure, nothing too interesting in their comments:

"General manager Danny Ainge has never been afraid to take a gamble on a risky prospect that other NBA teams decided to pass on due to injuries, character concerns or other reasons. Bol's broken foot, skinny frame and the questions about his approach to the game have caused his stock to slip, but there is little doubt that his talent looked worthy of a top-10 pick before he got injured in December.

If he pans out, he could bring much-needed 3-point shooting and rim protection to the roster."

Thanks! One more question. Who did Atlanta take with their second pick in this mock?

[cjbulls]

Heh. Not surprised at all that he's sinking like a stone. Mind posting the blurd about Boston taking him?

Sure, nothing too interesting in their comments:

"General manager Danny Ainge has never been afraid to take a gamble on a risky prospect that other NBA teams decided to pass on due to injuries, character concerns or other reasons. Bol's broken foot, skinny frame and the questions about his approach to the game have caused his stock to slip, but there is little doubt that his talent looked worthy of a top-10 pick before he got injured in December.

If he pans out, he could bring much-needed 3-point shooting and rim protection to the roster."

Thanks! One more question. Who did Atlanta take with their second pick in this mock?

No problem. I try not to post the whole article just because I know it's how the author more or less gets paid (but happy to answer to individual questions like this!)

10 was Jaxson Hayes. Doumbouya went #9. They claim to take intel into account, but the blurbs don't discuss much intel at all. It seems like nowadays we do not get the same level of draft intel unless it's from unreliable sources or reliable sources after the point is moot.

[drosestruts]

New ESPN mock up today. Supposedly takes "intel" into account:

1. Zion
2. Morant
3. Barrett
4. Garland
5. Hunter
6. Culver
7. White

"White was somewhat of an afterthought in recruiting circles among guard prospects in this class, but he was able to take advantage of the green light he received in Roy Williams' system and his seemingly unlimited confidence to jump into the lottery. His impressive size, open-court quickness and shot-making ability make him an ideal fit in the modern NBA game, and he should make strides as a passer and defender as he continues to gain strength and experience.

White would fall into an ideal situation in Chicago, where he can get significant reps as a primary ballhandler on a team that has really struggled at the point guard position over the past few seasons. His perimeter shooting ability gives him the flexibility to play alongside the likes of Kris Dunn or Zach LaVine as the Bulls figure out exactly how their backcourt should shape up long term."

Other picks of note:

8. Atlanta - Reddish
11. Minn - Little
12. Char - Hachimura
14. Boston - Clarke
18. Indiana - NAW
19. SAS - Bitadze
20. Boston - Bol
29. SAS - Bazley
34. Phil - Edwards
38. Chicago - Isaiah Roby

Goga somehow falling to the Spurs then being an instant success would be the most Spurs thing ever

[RastaBull]

White def has a ceiling just as impressive as most of of the guys after 3.

Definitely? I'm going to have to disagree. If I were ranking ceilings, as in making a list of draftees ranked purely by what they could be if they achieve everything they appear to be capable of, White would be pretty far down my first round rankings and I suspect I'm not alone on that.

Just purely spewing a ranking off the top of my head in about 30 seconds:

Zion
Morant
Barrett
Garland
Seoku
Reddish
Little
Goga
Hunter
Hayes
Langford
Clarke
Rui
Kevin Porter, Jr.

Then we start to get into where I have White's "ceiling" ranked.

Understandable. Ceiling is "definitely" subjective. (again, I say outside top 3 because I'd wager consensus sees Zion/Morant and even RJ as top ceilings). I don't really know how I'd define my impression of ceiling but I think White is a step lower than Garland, Culver and Reddish (I think Reddish has one of the higher ceilings but also much lower floor). Hunter and White have similar ceilings imo (Hunter having one of highest floor imo). Hayes is only other guy on your subjective list that I would subjectively also consider a same/higher ceiling than White. (I'll admit, I don't know much of anything about Goga except his measurements). Rui, Clarke, Little, Langford are all below imo.

Ceiling is totally subjective, and packed with a lot of bias at end of day.

When I talk about White's ceiling, I'm really just looking closely at his game tape and thinking to myself, this guy has an actual chance of being the best scorer out of all the guards/perimeter players in this draft. Personally, I don't see that specific point applicable to Langford or Reddish or Porter (whereas Reddish ceiling still rises because there is an actual chance he can be best in several other areas, guys like Langford and Porter just look to me like a actual chance of being all around good). He played MANY minutes; evaluating that large sample I see a kid with proven effective jumper, objectively great form (even with lower release) and balance, really great body control around rim, very soft touch around rim, high top speed (less explosive than some of other guards though).

My bias toward claiming his ceiling this high is perhaps an overreaction to success/impact of scoring guards these days (whereas normally I am 90s nostalgia basketball head haha).

[cjbulls]

Sam Smith with his own mock draft. While not a direct mouthpiece, I think Sam gets a lot of his draft info from the Bulls so it could be interesting insight.

He has it tiered like this (and draft going like this):

Zion
Ja
----
Barrett
----
Garland
Hunter
White
Culver
Reddish
----
Everyone else

"This third level includes five players of generally about equal potential, which means two probably will make it big. And it could be any two among Nos. 4 and 8. This can change again quickly because there still are medical reports to see, especially with Garland and now Cam Reddish, interviews to be done, and some silly workout that ends up changing someone's mind even though it shouldn't."

https://www.nba.com/bulls/news/sam-smiths-mock-draft-0

[panthermark]

Sam Smith with his own mock draft. While not a direct mouthpiece, I think Sam gets a lot of his draft info from the Bulls so it could be interesting insight.

He has it tiered like this (and draft going like this):

Zion
Ja
----
Barrett
----
Garland
Hunter
White
Culver
Reddish
----
Everyone else

"This third level includes five players of generally about equal potential, which means two probably will make it big. And it could be any two among Nos. 4 and 8. This can change again quickly because there still are medical reports to see, especially with Garland and now Cam Reddish, interviews to be done, and some silly workout that ends up changing someone's mind even though it shouldn't."

https://www.nba.com/bulls/news/sam-smiths-mock-draft-0

I can live with that although I hate Reddish.
Of that group I think White has the lowest ceiling, but probably the 2nd highest floor behind Hunter, who has the highest floor, but not the highest ceiling.

I'm "OK" with White. He isn't my favorite, but honestly, Garland is a bigger risk.
Seems like White has worked his way up from the next tier of players. Or maybe that just me talking myself into him.

[bigworld2017]

New ESPN mock up today. Supposedly takes "intel" into account:
out exactly how their backcourt should shape up long term."

Other picks of note:

8. Atlanta - Reddish
11. Minn - Little
12. Char - Hachimura
14. Boston - Clarke
18. Indiana - NAW
19. SAS - Bitadze
20. Boston - Bol
29. SAS - Bazley
34. Phil - Edwards
38. Chicago - Isaiah Roby

Damn, that would be just like San Antonio to draft the two guys I think are more than likely to outperform their Draft number. I even advocated that we Trade down from # 7 to Draft Bitadze and Bazley.

[KevinPandawong]

I doubt both Culver and Hunter are selected top-6, but if the Bulls are left with the decision between White and Reddish, I'm hoping they take a long hard look at NAW. Though I'd personally prefer taking the bet on Little, NAW fits the roster much better and I could see him starting next to Lavine as a Brogdon-lite.

He produced a higher AST/USG than Garland, White, Barrett, and Culver, while only Culver defended better(slightly if at all), and only Garland was more efficient(much smaller sample size).

I really like his handle, almost identical to SGA's with their dribbles held impossibly low to the ground. The only thing reserving my opinion of him is his speed/quickness. At the college level he looked more than athletic enough and he smothered point guards all season long; but with lack of combine measurements, its easy to doubt just how quick he actually is when pitted against NBA athletes.

Watch on YouTube

Against Miami playing the 2

Watch on YouTube

Against Miami playing the 1

[cjbulls]

I doubt both Culver and Hunter are selected top-6, but if the Bulls are left with the decision between White and Reddish, I'm hoping they take a long hard look at NAW. Though I'd personally prefer taking the bet on Little, NAW fits the roster much better and I could see him starting next to Lavine as a Brogdon-lite.

He produced a higher AST/USG than Garland, White, Barrett, and Culver, while only Culver defended better(slightly if at all), and only Garland was more efficient(much smaller sample size).

I really like his handle, almost identical to SGA's with their dribbles held impossibly low to the ground. The only thing reserving my opinion of him is his speed/quickness. At the college level he looked more than athletic enough and he smothered point guards all season long; but with lack of combine measurements, its easy to doubt just how quick he actually is when pitted against NBA athletes.

Watch on YouTube

Against Miami playing the 2

Watch on YouTube

Against Miami playing the 1

When I see Duck talking about Coby White, I think he has White's tape confused with NAW. He seems like a really solid player, but his athleticism will hold him back from being a legit starter. He's a bench combo guard. I certainly wouldn't mind him, but he isn't really adding much to the team for a #7 pick.

Him skipping the combine testing doesn't feel like an accident.

*Fun fact, he is cousins with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. What kind of family produces names like this (and 6'6 NBA guards).

[DuckIII]

I like NAW as well. His athleticism isn't explosive, but he uses his body well. Efficient movement, very good size. He didn't play well in the NCAA tournament, which is going to hurt him.

[DuckIII]

When I see Duck talking about Coby White, I think he has White's tape confused with NAW. He seems like a really solid player, but his athleticism will hold him back from being a legit starter. He's a bench combo guard. I certainly wouldn't mind him, but he isn't really adding much to the team for a #7 pick.

I like him, but I don't like him at #7 either. Given a choice between White at 7, or trading down for NAW, I trade down for sure if I know I can get him. But as a general matter, I'm against trading down in the lottery.

[KevinPandawong]

When I see Duck talking about Coby White, I think he has White's tape confused with NAW. He seems like a really solid player, but his athleticism will hold him back from being a legit starter. He's a bench combo guard. I certainly wouldn't mind him, but he isn't really adding much to the team for a #7 pick.

I like him, but I don't like him at #7 either. Given a choice between White at 7, or trading down for NAW, I trade down for sure if I know I can get him. But as a general matter, I'm against trading down in the lottery.

Who do you like at #7 though? I can literally go through the entire list of prospects right now and say "I don't like him as high as #7" for 95% of them. I'm not saying you're wrong or even that I disagree, but it's pretty slim pickings in the mid-lotto for everyone. I'd rather take a prospect I know can be effective without force-feeding the ball like White and Reddish will need in order to succeed.

I'd love to trade down, but I doubt any team in the league is all that envious of the Bulls' position in this draft. There's a reason why virtually everyone is in favor of trading down or out of the draft, so what value can we estimate receiving in any prospective trade down? Boston has the picks to do it, but are you trading with Ainge? If not, what young prospects are you targeting from middling teams like the Pistons, Pacers, Magic, Nets? Who is giving up core pieces for a chance at Coby White or Cameron Reddish. It's really tough to estimate what value to attribute the pick, personally I just assume the Bulls stay at #7.

[DuckIII]

Who do you like at #7 though?

No one.

At least no not already projected to go in the top 6. It sucks. 6 is where I drew the line on my third tier of draft prospects, with a large drop between 6 and 7.

So its the lesser of evils. I don't even have a set order at 7. I guess it looks something like this in tiers:

Reddish
Little
Seoku

Clarke
Goga

White
NAW
Langford

[KevinPandawong]

Him skipping the combine testing doesn't feel like an accident.

Same could be said of virtually everyone being discussed at #7; RJ Barrett, Bol Bol, Jarrett Culver, Darius Garland, De'Andre Hunter, Keldon Johnson, Romeo Langford, Cameron Reddish, and Coby White.

[cjbulls]

Him skipping the combine testing doesn't feel like an accident.

Same could be said of virtually everyone being discussed at #7; RJ Barrett, Bol Bol, Jarrett Culver, Darius Garland, De'Andre Hunter, Keldon Johnson, Romeo Langford, Cameron Reddish, and Coby White.

NAW isn't being discussed at 7.