Robin Jones wrote:OldSchoolNoBull wrote:People are using the term "bust" far too liberally. It's like you're either a star or a bust. That's not how it works. Obviously Lauri is not going to be a star or a cornerstone, and that's disappointing after the hope some of us had for him earlier on, but to say he is a bust is laughable. I expect him to get a decent contract this summer, whether it's us or another team, and I expect he will have a career where he is either the 4th/5th best player in a starting lineup or a perennial sixth man type provided he can stay healthy, and that to me is not a bust. Seven-footers with his shooting ability don't grow on trees.
That doesn't necessarily mean I think he should be in our long-term plans - I'm unsure atm, as I don't know if we will have our pick or not or if we will make the playoffs, etc.
Exactly this!
If people expected Lauri to become an all star and are disappointed that he has not (yet?) been one, or has not been as consistent as hoped, this does not mean that he is a bust. He is still much closer to become an all-star than a bust when all is said and done.
However, most lottery picks are neither. The expectation is to get a star caliber player with picks 1-3, perhaps 1-4, and a starter level player or so with picks 5-12. Only a few players from each draft become all stars or busts. If someone wishes to label 80% of the lottery picks as busts, that's fine, but I do not feel that many share the same view'.
For some reason people are always very fond of first round picks, even the non-lottery ones. However, even with lottery picks (or even the early lottery picks) it is more probable to get a worse rather than a better player than Lauri is.
The negativity of one of the 'bust' comments earlier in this thread disturbed me so much (cannot understand why people are so negative - I understand that some get emotional supporting their teams, but still), that I did some research, i.e. went through the picks 1-12 from all drafts 2010-2019.
I them classified the players as:
1) Steal in the draft and/or an all-star.
2) Better than Lauri. These players are stars in their teams, and clear #1 or #2 options for most of their careers.
3) About the same as Lauri. These players are starters or sixth men most of their careers.
4) Worse than Lauri. These are good NBA rotation players, i.e. no busts, but no starter level players either
5) Busts. The criteria for picks 1-4 is higher than for picks 5-12 to be classified as a bust. If picked 5-12 and the career lasts just a few years or the player does not play regularly 20+ minutes etc., he is a bust.
Here the list. The number after the name is the draft pick #.
2010
1) Wall (1), Cousins (5) and George (10)
2) Hayward* (9) (*I was generous to Hayward here, as it could be argued also that he is not a better player than Lauri is.)
3) Turner (2), Favors (3), Monroe (7)
4) W. Johnson (4), Aminu (8)
5) Udoh (6), Aldrich (11), Henry (12)
2011
1) Irving (1), Walker (8), K. Thompson (10)
2) -
3) Kanter (3), T.Thompson (4), Valanciunias (5), Knight (7), Markieff Morris (12)
4) Biyombo (6), Burks (11)
5) Williams (2), Fredette (9).
2012
1) Davis (1), Beal (3), Lillard (6), Drummond (9)
2) -
3) Waiters (4), Barnes (7), Ross (8)
4) Kidd-Gilchrist (2), Rivers (10), M. Leonard (11), Lamb (12)
5) T. Robinson (5)
2013
1) Oladipo (2), McCollum (10)
2) -
3) Porter Jr (3), Caldwell-Pope (8), Adams (12)
4) Zeller (4), Len (5), Noel (6), McLemore (7), Burke (9), Carter-Williams (11)
5) Bennett (1)
2014
1) Embiid (3), Randle (7)
2) -
3) Wiggins (1), Gordon (4), Smart (6), Saric (12)
4) Exum (5), Stauskas (8), Vonleh (9), Payton (10), McDermott (11)
5) Parker (2)
2015
1) Towns (1), Porzingis (4). (*Being very generous to Porzingis here, as more probably he should be in category 2, or even in 3, i.e. the same as Lauri.)
2) -
3) Russell (2), Turner (11)
4) Hezonja (5), Cauley-Stein (6), Mudiay (7), S. Johnson (8), Kaminsky (9), Winslow (10), Lyles (12)
5) Okafor (3)
2016
1) Simmons (1), Ingram (2), Brown (3), Sabonis (11)
2) Murray (7)
3) Hield (6), Prince (12)
4) Dunn (5), Chriss (8), Pöltl (9)
5) Bender (4), Maker (10)
2017
1) Tatum (3)
2) Fox (5)
3) Fultz (1), Ball (2), Isaac (6), Monk (11), Kennard (12)
4) Ntilikina (8), Smith Jr (9), Collins (10)
5) Josh Jackson (4)
2018
1) Doncic (3), Young (5)
2) Ayton (1), Sexton (8), Gilgeous-Alexander (11)
3) Bagley (2), Jaren Jackson (4), Carter Jr (7)* (*Being a generous to WCJ here).
4) Bamba (6), Knox (9), Mikal Bridges (10), Miles Bridges (12)
5) Too early to tell.
2019
1) Williamson (1)
2) Morant (2), Barrett (3)
3) Hunger (4), Garland (5), White (7), Hachimura (9), Washington (12) (*Being a generous to Coby here).
4) Culver (6), Hayes (8), Reddish (10), Johnson (11).
5) Too early to tell.
So on average, there are a few stals/all stars per draft (from picks 1-12) and one or a few busts. There are much more players who are worse than Markkanen than there are better ones. The better ones are usually picked higher than #7. That is, with #7 pick the probability to get a better player than Markkanen is not very high. Even when counting all the 1-12 picks, the probability to get a better player is not very high.
So based on this sample, it is clear that Markkanen is not a bust.
Moreover, it seems that he has exceeded the expectations for a 7th pick so far. If he develops further, which is possible, as he is still relatively young, he can of course reach the 'higher status' in this classification too.
Of course these classifications are based on my evaluation (checking some minutes, lenght of the career, key stats and the roles in the teams).
