Bears 2023 thread V

[molepharmer]

As an outsider looking in, I would base the earliest part of the draft around being sure to end up with Marvin Harrison, Jr. Whether it’s a small trade down or just taking him.

You guys obviously know your team way better than I do, but to me Fields has shown enough base talent that when combined with Harrison’s potential to be the best target in football, there’s no way I’d go QB again at the very top of this draft. If you want a Fields replacement use the second high draft pick. None of these guys are so clearly better relative to each other that you take one at the expense of being able to draft Harrison.Just my 2 cents.

Very sound logic… I’ve been saying this. Grab MHJ with the Carolina pick, in a small trade down if the opportunity presents itself or just take him with wherever the pick lands. Use our 1st to draft a QB or trade down to get a guy like Penix, who I believe would excel with weapons like Moore and MHJ in addition Kmet and an improved o-line.

I think it's the other way around- you draft Caleb or Maye first, and they will make all our other receivers that much better. And you can take a WR or Bowers with the Bears pick. Our receiving corp will then be top notch, even without MHJ. I think there's a big enough difference between the first two QB's and all the rest to make getting one of those top 2 a priority over drafting MHJ.

While unlikely, assuming Bears pick a QB at #1, and their own pick has MHJ available, I'd be curious what the Bears could get if they traded that MHJ spot. Although doubtful, could they drop to #6-8 range and pick up a future first or second? Then take Nabors or Bowers at #6-8.

I'm in favor of getting a rookie QB and resetting the contract. Trade Fields for a late second or third rounder and use the money saved on QB to sign somebody like D Hunter, B Burns, J Allen, etc. Dream scenario, Hunter, rookie QB, Nabors, future first/second rounder (MHJ trade) and 3rd rounder (Fields trade).

[Jimako10]

I think an overlooked argument for Fields is the fact that DJ Moore is having a career year. DJ Moore has probably had the worst crop of QBs that have thrown to him at Carolina, so it gives me some solace to the thought that if you do give JF good weapons, he's going to use them.

I know we look at Stroud and see his weapons as subpar, but the reality is I would easily take Tank Dell, Nico Collins, and Noah Brown over Darnel Mooney, while Dalton Schultz is probably in the same neighborhood with Kmet. Stroud also has one of the best LTs in the game. Just to be clear, I'd still easily take Stroud in a heartbeat, but just wanted to compare the weapons and the fact that it's really not a similar situation.

This sort of gives me more hope that if MHJ were to be drafted and JF sticks around, it might not be as bad a situation, and the offense would really thrive.

Having said that, I'm probably still on the MHJ + QB bandwagon just cause of how poorly JF performs in crunch time (along with the turnovers and poor pocket awareness). At least to me, that's where you separate the JAGs from the winners, and thus far, JF has shown to shrink during these pivotal moments. But who knows, maybe it's just because he only has 1 real weapon to throw to, and adding MHJ could change that.

[madvillian]

As a Lions fans, I'm worried about the Bears this weekend. Lions have not been playing good consistent football for a month now. They are still a good team, but injuries on the offensive line and defense have stacked up and Goff has been inconsistent.

I can see Fields running wild and Chicago winning a shootout, even if the weather is rainy and cold.

[jnrjr79]

If you think Caleb and Maye are "maybe's" then you're basically saying you'd never draft a QB.

Not really. It’s just acknowledging that even when using the #1 pick, maybe only half of QBs drafted turn into decent starters.

The odds are much higher for Caleb or Maye though. They are being touted as some of the best prospects since Trevor Lawrence or Andrew Luck. If this was last year, I'd agree, and in fact Poles did too, and decided not to take a QB then.

The other side of the equation is that IMO, Justin Fields is not a "Maybe" anymore. We've seen enough of him to know he's not likely ever going to be "the guy". So you can't say "well, drafting a QB is a maybe, keeping Fields is a maybe, so why not just stay with what we have". that seems to be the gist of what is being argued.

Sure, I’m not arguing against drafting a QB. I’m just noting that every QB is a “maybe” in the draft and that many highly touted QBs flame out. But it’s also true that most of the good QBs in the NFL were drafted highly. There’s just a high level of risk/failure when drafting a QB and there’s nothing you can do about it.

Justin is probably a worthy NFL starter, but not nearly a top QB, based on what we’ve seen so far. That actually means he’s probably a 50/50 shot to be better than whoever you’d draft. That’s not really a reason to avoid drafting someone with the first pick, it’s just the context you have to acknowledge. There’s a much higher chance of failure whenever you decide to burn a top 5 pick on a QB than there is relative to other positions.

[JockItch43]

As an outsider looking in, I would base the earliest part of the draft around being sure to end up with Marvin Harrison, Jr. Whether it’s a small trade down or just taking him.

You guys obviously know your team way better than I do, but to me Fields has shown enough base talent that when combined with Harrison’s potential to be the best target in football, there’s no way I’d go QB again at the very top of this draft. If you want a Fields replacement use the second high draft pick. None of these guys are so clearly better relative to each other that you take one at the expense of being able to draft Harrison.

Just my 2 cents.

Very sound logic… I’ve been saying this. Grab MHJ with the Carolina pick, in a small trade down if the opportunity presents itself or just take him with wherever the pick lands. Use our 1st to draft a QB or trade down to get a guy like Penix, who I believe would excel with weapons like Moore and MHJ in addition Kmet and an improved o-line.

I think it's the other way around- you draft Caleb or Maye first, and they will make all our other receivers that much better. And you can take a WR or Bowers with the Bears pick. Our receiving corp will then be top notch, even without MHJ. I think there's a big enough difference between the first two QB's and all the rest to make getting one of those top 2 a priority over drafting MHJ.

How many times do the “clearly best” QB prospects that go top 3 end up being true superstars in the league… or even the best QB in their class? The percentages are a joke. Most of these “experts” get it wrong more often than not and often times the pre-draft “best prospects” end up being busts.

MHJ, to me and many others, is one of the most sure things in this draft. Regarding these “top 2” QB prospects, at least I see the talent jump off the screen with Caleb, but he indeed does have his issues. I could see him being a star or being a bust. Maye, IMO, is very overrated at this point. Has the size and tools, but the multiple games I’ve watched of him the talent doesn’t jump off the screen like with CW. Maye will not be the best QB in this class and I’m almost positive a QB drafted behind him will be better. Happens almost every year. The goal with this Carolina pick is to land a star, not hope you land one.

If we don’t want to roll the dice with CW, I’m mitigating that risk, taking the sure thing in MHJ, and trading down to get a QB who could easily be as productive, if not more, than either of those two guys if set up for success.

It’s not an exact science, but these talent evaluators get this stuff wrong more often than they get it right. It’ll be the same with this draft class as well.

[Dresden]

Very sound logic… I’ve been saying this. Grab MHJ with the Carolina pick, in a small trade down if the opportunity presents itself or just take him with wherever the pick lands. Use our 1st to draft a QB or trade down to get a guy like Penix, who I believe would excel with weapons like Moore and MHJ in addition Kmet and an improved o-line.

I think it's the other way around- you draft Caleb or Maye first, and they will make all our other receivers that much better. And you can take a WR or Bowers with the Bears pick. Our receiving corp will then be top notch, even without MHJ. I think there's a big enough difference between the first two QB's and all the rest to make getting one of those top 2 a priority over drafting MHJ.

How many times do the “clearly best” QB prospects that go top 3 end up being true superstars in the league… or even the best QB in their class? The percentages are a joke. Most of these “experts” get it wrong more often than not and often times the pre-draft “best prospects” end up being busts.

MHJ, to me and many others, is one of the most sure things in this draft. Regarding these “top 2” QB prospects, at least I see the talent jump off the screen with Caleb, but he indeed does have his issues. I could see him being a star or being a bust. Maye, IMO, is very overrated at this point. Has the size and tools, but the multiple games I’ve watched of him the talent doesn’t jump off the screen like with CW. Maye will not be the best QB in this class and I’m almost positive a QB drafted behind him will be better. Happens almost every year. The goal with this Carolina pick is to land a star, not hope you land one.

If we don’t want to roll the dice with CW, I’m mitigating that risk, taking the sure thing in MHJ, and trading down to get a QB who could easily be as productive, if not more, than either of those two guys if set up for success.

It’s not an exact science, but these talent evaluators get this stuff wrong more often than they get it right. It’ll be the same with this draft class as well.

Why do you trust them when it comes to MHJ, but not when it comes to a QB?

[Dresden]

Not really. It’s just acknowledging that even when using the #1 pick, maybe only half of QBs drafted turn into decent starters.

The odds are much higher for Caleb or Maye though. They are being touted as some of the best prospects since Trevor Lawrence or Andrew Luck. If this was last year, I'd agree, and in fact Poles did too, and decided not to take a QB then.

The other side of the equation is that IMO, Justin Fields is not a "Maybe" anymore. We've seen enough of him to know he's not likely ever going to be "the guy". So you can't say "well, drafting a QB is a maybe, keeping Fields is a maybe, so why not just stay with what we have". that seems to be the gist of what is being argued.

Sure, I’m not arguing against drafting a QB. I’m just noting that every QB is a “maybe” in the draft and that many highly touted QBs flame out. But it’s also true that most of the good QBs in the NFL were drafted highly. There’s just a high level of risk/failure when drafting a QB and there’s nothing you can do about it.

Justin is probably a worthy NFL starter, but not nearly a top QB, based on what we’ve seen so far. That actually means he’s probably a 50/50 shot to be better than whoever you’d draft. That’s not really a reason to avoid drafting someone with the first pick, it’s just the context you have to acknowledge. There’s a much higher chance of failure whenever you decide to burn a top 5 pick on a QB than there is relative to other positions.

The two most highly touted QB's in recent memory, to my knowledge, were Andrew Luck and Trevor Lawrence. I would Luck lived up to that billing, and Lawrence appears to be on his way.

If I really thought that Maye or Caleb only had a 50% chance of being better than Fields, I'd say "why bother?" as well. Fields has been historically bad as a passer so far in his career. If you only have a 50/50 chance of doing better than that with the 1st pick in the draft, I don't know, I think I'd probably just try to trade my draft picks away for established players.

[jnrjr79]

I think it's the other way around- you draft Caleb or Maye first, and they will make all our other receivers that much better. And you can take a WR or Bowers with the Bears pick. Our receiving corp will then be top notch, even without MHJ. I think there's a big enough difference between the first two QB's and all the rest to make getting one of those top 2 a priority over drafting MHJ.

How many times do the “clearly best” QB prospects that go top 3 end up being true superstars in the league… or even the best QB in their class? The percentages are a joke. Most of these “experts” get it wrong more often than not and often times the pre-draft “best prospects” end up being busts.

MHJ, to me and many others, is one of the most sure things in this draft. Regarding these “top 2” QB prospects, at least I see the talent jump off the screen with Caleb, but he indeed does have his issues. I could see him being a star or being a bust. Maye, IMO, is very overrated at this point. Has the size and tools, but the multiple games I’ve watched of him the talent doesn’t jump off the screen like with CW. Maye will not be the best QB in this class and I’m almost positive a QB drafted behind him will be better. Happens almost every year. The goal with this Carolina pick is to land a star, not hope you land one.

If we don’t want to roll the dice with CW, I’m mitigating that risk, taking the sure thing in MHJ, and trading down to get a QB who could easily be as productive, if not more, than either of those two guys if set up for success.

It’s not an exact science, but these talent evaluators get this stuff wrong more often than they get it right. It’ll be the same with this draft class as well.

Why do you trust them when it comes to MHJ, but not when it comes to a QB?

The very easy answer to this is highly drafted players at certain positions (WR, EDGE) tend to succeed in the NFL at a greater rate than QBs.

QB is the most important position, so it seems fine that they are essentially overdrafted relative to their chance of success, but are we really asking here why the best WR prospect in years would be a safer pick than a QB?

[JockItch43]

I think it's the other way around- you draft Caleb or Maye first, and they will make all our other receivers that much better. And you can take a WR or Bowers with the Bears pick. Our receiving corp will then be top notch, even without MHJ. I think there's a big enough difference between the first two QB's and all the rest to make getting one of those top 2 a priority over drafting MHJ.

How many times do the “clearly best” QB prospects that go top 3 end up being true superstars in the league… or even the best QB in their class? The percentages are a joke. Most of these “experts” get it wrong more often than not and often times the pre-draft “best prospects” end up being busts.

MHJ, to me and many others, is one of the most sure things in this draft. Regarding these “top 2” QB prospects, at least I see the talent jump off the screen with Caleb, but he indeed does have his issues. I could see him being a star or being a bust. Maye, IMO, is very overrated at this point. Has the size and tools, but the multiple games I’ve watched of him the talent doesn’t jump off the screen like with CW. Maye will not be the best QB in this class and I’m almost positive a QB drafted behind him will be better. Happens almost every year. The goal with this Carolina pick is to land a star, not hope you land one.

If we don’t want to roll the dice with CW, I’m mitigating that risk, taking the sure thing in MHJ, and trading down to get a QB who could easily be as productive, if not more, than either of those two guys if set up for success.

It’s not an exact science, but these talent evaluators get this stuff wrong more often than they get it right. It’ll be the same with this draft class as well.

Why do you trust them when it comes to MHJ, but not when it comes to a QB?

No, my point was I trust my own opinion more than the consensus of these so called experts. Sometimes that opinion aligns, like it does with MHJ, sometimes it doesn’t, like with Maye. My other point was with a pick this high, I’m shooting for the closest thing to a sure fire superstar. I think Williams has that ceiling as well as MHJ, but with more risk. And while I see why some like Maye, I don’t see that ceiling from him. For that, I rather trade down and draft one of the other QB’s later in the draft, like a Penix, to reduce risk of overdrafting and acquire more assets in the process.

[JockItch43]

How many times do the “clearly best” QB prospects that go top 3 end up being true superstars in the league… or even the best QB in their class? The percentages are a joke. Most of these “experts” get it wrong more often than not and often times the pre-draft “best prospects” end up being busts.

MHJ, to me and many others, is one of the most sure things in this draft. Regarding these “top 2” QB prospects, at least I see the talent jump off the screen with Caleb, but he indeed does have his issues. I could see him being a star or being a bust. Maye, IMO, is very overrated at this point. Has the size and tools, but the multiple games I’ve watched of him the talent doesn’t jump off the screen like with CW. Maye will not be the best QB in this class and I’m almost positive a QB drafted behind him will be better. Happens almost every year. The goal with this Carolina pick is to land a star, not hope you land one.

If we don’t want to roll the dice with CW, I’m mitigating that risk, taking the sure thing in MHJ, and trading down to get a QB who could easily be as productive, if not more, than either of those two guys if set up for success.

It’s not an exact science, but these talent evaluators get this stuff wrong more often than they get it right. It’ll be the same with this draft class as well.

Why do you trust them when it comes to MHJ, but not when it comes to a QB?

The very easy answer to this is highly drafted players at certain positions (WR, EDGE) tend to succeed in the NFL at a greater rate than QBs.

QB is the most important position, so it seems fine that they are essentially overdrafted relative to their chance of success, but are we really asking here why the best WR prospect in years would be a safer pick than a QB?

Exactly. Read this post after my reply, but I completely agree.

[Dresden]

How many times do the “clearly best” QB prospects that go top 3 end up being true superstars in the league… or even the best QB in their class? The percentages are a joke. Most of these “experts” get it wrong more often than not and often times the pre-draft “best prospects” end up being busts.

MHJ, to me and many others, is one of the most sure things in this draft. Regarding these “top 2” QB prospects, at least I see the talent jump off the screen with Caleb, but he indeed does have his issues. I could see him being a star or being a bust. Maye, IMO, is very overrated at this point. Has the size and tools, but the multiple games I’ve watched of him the talent doesn’t jump off the screen like with CW. Maye will not be the best QB in this class and I’m almost positive a QB drafted behind him will be better. Happens almost every year. The goal with this Carolina pick is to land a star, not hope you land one.

If we don’t want to roll the dice with CW, I’m mitigating that risk, taking the sure thing in MHJ, and trading down to get a QB who could easily be as productive, if not more, than either of those two guys if set up for success.

It’s not an exact science, but these talent evaluators get this stuff wrong more often than they get it right. It’ll be the same with this draft class as well.

Why do you trust them when it comes to MHJ, but not when it comes to a QB?

The very easy answer to this is highly drafted players at certain positions (WR, EDGE) tend to succeed in the NFL at a greater rate than QBs.

QB is the most important position, so it seems fine that they are essentially overdrafted relative to their chance of success, but are we really asking here why the best WR prospect in years would be a safer pick than a QB?

To me, the question is, what is more important? And I think by far it's QB, and when you have a chance to take the best one, and one that is being talked about as one of the better to come along in awhile, you should take the chance on the QB, even if it's not as safe as WR.

[ThisGuyFawkes]

Why do you trust them when it comes to MHJ, but not when it comes to a QB?

The very easy answer to this is highly drafted players at certain positions (WR, EDGE) tend to succeed in the NFL at a greater rate than QBs.

QB is the most important position, so it seems fine that they are essentially overdrafted relative to their chance of success, but are we really asking here why the best WR prospect in years would be a safer pick than a QB?

To me, the question is, what is more important? And I think by far it's QB, and when you have a chance to take the best one, and one that is being talked about as one of the better to come along in awhile, you should take the chance on the QB, even if it's not as safe as WR.

Agreed. Yeah it's a crapshoot and there's a lot of highly drafted QBs that flame out, but you have to take that risk.

[fleet]

How many times do the “clearly best” QB prospects that go top 3 end up being true superstars in the league… or even the best QB in their class? The percentages are a joke. Most of these “experts” get it wrong more often than not and often times the pre-draft “best prospects” end up being busts.

.

And yet quarterbacks keep getting drafted high when available. There is a reason for that. Whatever the actual rate of success is, NFL teams know way more about it than we do. If there was a better draft strategy to win a Superbowl and build a perennial contender, it would have been widely used by now. There was the Stafford trade. Problem with that is that it only worked once. And the Staffords aren’t usually traded.

[madvillian]

How many times do the “clearly best” QB prospects that go top 3 end up being true superstars in the league… or even the best QB in their class? The percentages are a joke. Most of these “experts” get it wrong more often than not and often times the pre-draft “best prospects” end up being busts.

.

and yet they keep getting drafted high. I wonder why that is.

Trying to project these QBs is like trying to project MLB sluggers. Even the ones that look the absolute best at the college level will bust out in the pros thanks to dozens of small differences that add up and some aren't able to overcome.

Just is what it is. Doesn't make the scouts bad at their jobs, just means it's a damn hard job.

[fleet]

How many times do the “clearly best” QB prospects that go top 3 end up being true superstars in the league… or even the best QB in their class? The percentages are a joke. Most of these “experts” get it wrong more often than not and often times the pre-draft “best prospects” end up being busts.

.

and yet they keep getting drafted high. I wonder why that is.

Trying to project these QBs is like trying to project MLB sluggers. Even the ones that look the absolute best at the college level will bust out in the pros thanks to dozens of small differences that add up and some aren't able to overcome.

Just is what it is. Doesn't make the scouts bad at their jobs, just means it's a damn hard job.

What we are getting is an argument for the #1 overall team to lower the odds of quarterback success in the draft. On purpose, skipping the highest graded quarterback prospects, and instead taking them in a lower round that has declining rates of success. An argument contrary to what decades of highly paid NFL professionals have done. Now certainly there is a level of grade on a quarterback that should not preclude a higher graded position player being drafted first (such as MHJ). Happens all the time. In every round. But All positions not being equal, yes, it is what it is. Getting an elite functioning quarterback is more imperative to ultimate success than drafting anything else. Significanly more imperative. They are, and should be overdrafted. I hate having to state the obvious that even those arguing to the contrary already understand. It's not about logic at this point. It's about Fields, which convolutes the discussion.

[Dresden]

How many times do the “clearly best” QB prospects that go top 3 end up being true superstars in the league… or even the best QB in their class? The percentages are a joke. Most of these “experts” get it wrong more often than not and often times the pre-draft “best prospects” end up being busts.

.

and yet they keep getting drafted high. I wonder why that is.

Trying to project these QBs is like trying to project MLB sluggers. Even the ones that look the absolute best at the college level will bust out in the pros thanks to dozens of small differences that add up and some aren't able to overcome.

Just is what it is. Doesn't make the scouts bad at their jobs, just means it's a damn hard job.

Sometimes it might the situation they end up in, too, that prevents them from being as good as they could be. Fields may be an example of that, or he may not be. I think Purdy in a lot of other situations would not look as good as he does. Mahomes, without Andy Reid, Tyreke Hill, Kielce, etc, who knows?

[Dresden]

The other factor is that the Bears have not had a great QB since maybe Sid Luckman, decades and decades ago. Bears fans have bemoaned this fact for generations. Jim McMahon had a few good years, and we won a Super Bowl with him. And here the Bears have a chance to pick from not just one, but likely two QB prospects that both would go #1 overall in a lot of years. To pass up that opportunity to finally, FINALLY, get an elite QB would just be insanity.

And then it's up to the organization to do everything they need to, to make him a success. That includes the coaches and the players.

[_txchilibowl_]

Unpopular opinion: MHJ won't be the first WR selected. His 40 time will pull him down.

[Bulls69]

As an outsider looking in, I would base the earliest part of the draft around being sure to end up with Marvin Harrison, Jr. Whether it’s a small trade down or just taking him.

You guys obviously know your team way better than I do, but to me Fields has shown enough base talent that when combined with Harrison’s potential to be the best target in football, there’s no way I’d go QB again at the very top of this draft. If you want a Fields replacement use the second high draft pick. None of these guys are so clearly better relative to each other that you take one at the expense of being able to draft Harrison.

Just my 2 cents.

You nailed it Duck


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[Bulls69]

As an outsider looking in, I would base the earliest part of the draft around being sure to end up with Marvin Harrison, Jr. Whether it’s a small trade down or just taking him.

You guys obviously know your team way better than I do, but to me Fields has shown enough base talent that when combined with Harrison’s potential to be the best target in football, there’s no way I’d go QB again at the very top of this draft. If you want a Fields replacement use the second high draft pick. None of these guys are so clearly better relative to each other that you take one at the expense of being able to draft Harrison.

Just my 2 cents.

Very sound logic… I’ve been saying this. Grab MHJ with the Carolina pick, in a small trade down if the opportunity presents itself or just take him with wherever the pick lands. Use our 1st to draft a QB or trade down to get a guy like Penix, who I believe would excel with weapons like Moore and MHJ in addition Kmet and an improved o-line.

After two ACL tears no thank you


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